Connect with us

DIPLOMACY

Russia’s strategic base plans in Sudan deadlocked

Published

on

Russia continues its efforts to secure a strategic naval base in Sudan, which would bolster its presence in Africa and provide a contingency if it loses its naval foothold in Syria following any potential overthrow of Bashar al-Assad. Despite agreements with Moscow on arms and oil products, Sudan’s current authorities have not approved the base due to the ongoing civil war and the complex dynamics of international diplomacy.

An agreement to establish a naval base in Port Sudan on the Red Sea coast was signed in 2019. However, the outbreak of Sudan’s civil war has prevented its official ratification. Initially, Moscow supported the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) through the Wagner Group but later shifted its support to Sudanese government troops. In February 2024, Russian Ambassador Andrei Chernovol announced the indefinite postponement of the naval base project.

Reports from Sudanese intelligence officials and Western diplomatic sources, as cited by Bloomberg, indicate that Russia and Iran are engaged in talks with Sudan’s government regarding military installations in Port Sudan and other regions, including the volatile capital, Khartoum.

Sudan has rejected Russia’s offers of advanced S-400 air defense systems, fearing backlash from Western countries and the United States. Nonetheless, Russia has continued its push to deepen ties with Sudan through a combination of economic and military aid.

In June 2024, Malik Agar, the deputy leader under Sudan’s military chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, visited Moscow to negotiate arms deals in exchange for establishing a refueling station on the Red Sea coast. Since then, multiple Russian arms shipments have been reported by Sudanese port officials.

Fuel trade has also resumed. Between April and October 2024, Russia exported 2.8 million barrels of diesel and gasoline to Sudan, making up 47% of Sudan’s total fuel imports. In November, Sudan’s Energy Ministry and Gazprom executives discussed reconstructing oil infrastructure, building pipelines, and constructing a refinery.

Russia is also suspected of providing intelligence support to Sudanese military forces. Commenting on these developments, Justin Lynch, a researcher at Conflict Observatory, stated, “Russia needs a base in the Red Sea and needs to make money from it. Cooperation with the military is a strategic move, both in terms of arms sales and obtaining a facility in Port Sudan.”

Russian military expert Viktor Murakhovsky highlighted the potential significance of this naval base, noting it would be Russia’s first in Africa since the Soviet era. He emphasized Moscow’s strategic goal of controlling the Suez Canal route and establishing a permanent presence in the Indian Ocean.

DIPLOMACY

SIPRI report reveals top global arms exporters

Published

on

Analysts at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) have announced the world’s current largest arms exporters.

The institute analyzed changes in the exports and imports of major weapons over the past five years. The US was the top exporting country, while Ukraine was the largest importer.

In its report titled Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2024, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) stated that Russia was the third-largest arms exporter in the world between 2020 and 2024.

According to the report, the institute analyzed data from 64 major arms-exporting countries, covering weapons such as warplanes, military ships, air defense systems, tanks, combat support vehicles, and artillery systems.

The top three countries in the five-year period were ranked as follows:

1) US: With a 43% share of global exports, the US increased its arms exports by 21% compared to the 2015-2019 period. According to SIPRI data, the US supplied major weapons to 107 countries. 35% of American exports went to Europe, marking a 233% increase compared to the 2015-2019 period.

The leading importers in the region were Ukraine, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Norway. A significant portion of the shipments to Ukraine, which accounted for 9.3% of American arms exports, was provided as aid, with 71% consisting of used weapons taken from stockpiles for rapid delivery. After Europe, the Middle East was the largest importing region, accounting for 33% of American exports.

The volume of supplies decreased by 15% compared to the 2015-2020 period. Leading importers were Saudi Arabia (12% of American supplies), Qatar (7.7%), and Kuwait (4.4%), while Israel’s share was 3%. Asia and Oceania received 28% of American exports. Institute analysts noted that the leading importers in the region—Japan (8.8%), Australia (6.7%), and South Korea (5.3%)—shared the same view with the US regarding “the growing threat from China” in the region.

2) France: Accounting for 9.6% of global exports, France’s exports increased by 11%. France supplies weapons to a total of 65 countries. In terms of regional distribution, Asia and Oceania had the largest share (35%), followed by the Middle East (28%) and Europe (15%).

France’s supplies to Europe increased by 187% in the last five years compared to the 2015-2019 period, particularly due to warplane sales to Greece and Croatia and the supply of various weapons (artillery systems, missiles, ships) to Ukraine. The largest importer was India (28% of French exports), followed by Qatar (9.7%).

3) Russia: Making up 7.8% of global exports, Russia’s exports decreased by 64% in the last five years. The decline began in 2022, before the full-scale conflict in Ukraine. Analysts attributed this to a decrease in orders from India and China. In 2024, Russia’s exports fell by 47% compared to 2022.

The SIPRI report stated, “The likely reasons for the decline since 2022 are Russia’s decision to prioritize the production of major weapon types for its own armed forces over exports, the consequences of multilateral trade sanctions imposed on Russia, and increasing pressure from the US and its allies to discourage states from purchasing Russian arms.”

Russia supplies weapons to 33 countries. Most weapons go to Asia and Oceania (74% of Russian exports), followed by Africa (12%), Europe (7.4%)—specifically to Armenia, Belarus, and Serbia, as noted in the SIPRI report—and the Middle East (6.4%).

Two-thirds of Russian exports go to India (38%), China (17%), and Kazakhstan (11%). The largest expected shipments from Russia are to be made under agreements with India, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

On the other hand, Rostec Chairman Sergei Chemezov criticized SIPRI’s calculation methods regarding defense sector companies, stating, “We do not publish this data, like other countries such as China; it is confidential. Where do they get it? They completely fabricate it.”

Continue Reading

DIPLOMACY

Russia, China, and Iran launch joint naval exercises in Gulf of Oman

Published

on

Russia, China, and Iran have commenced joint military exercises named “Maritime Security Belt-2025” in the Gulf of Oman. The opening ceremony for the exercise took place at the Iranian port of Chabahar.

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that the Rezkiy and Aldar Tsydenzhapov corvettes, along with the medium-sized sea tanker Pechenga, from Russia’s Pacific Fleet, would participate in the exercise.

The Ministry stated that during the exercise, which will last several days in the northern Indian Ocean, tasks such as rescuing hijacked ships, search and rescue at sea, protecting underwater communication lines, and artillery fire on naval and air targets will be carried out.

According to Tasnim news agency, Iran will send warships and naval infantry from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to the exercise.

Tehran emphasized that the purpose of the exercise is “to strengthen security in the region and expand multilateral cooperation among the participating countries.” Military officials also plan to conduct exercises on protecting international maritime trade and combating piracy and terrorism.

The Chinese Ministry of Defense stated that the destroyer Baotou and the supply ship Gaoyou Lake would participate in the exercise.

The Ministry noted that the exercise aims to deepen “mutual trust” and “pragmatic cooperation” in the military field.

A total of approximately 15 ships, support vessels, fast attack craft, and naval aviation helicopters are participating in the exercise.

Azerbaijan, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and the Republic of South Africa are participating as observers in the exercise.

The “Maritime Security Belt-2025” exercise is being held for the seventh time under Iran’s leadership. The first exercise was conducted in the Sea of Oman in 2018.

The exercise is taking place in the shadow of planned talks between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia on March 12.

The US delegation will include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff, and National Security Advisor Michael Waltz.

Ukraine will be represented by the Head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak, his deputy Pavel Palisa, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

Continue Reading

DIPLOMACY

US blocks G7 plan to counter Russian shadow fleet

Published

on

According to Bloomberg, President Donald Trump’s administration has vetoed a G7 plan to create an operational group against the shadow fleet Russia uses to circumvent oil sanctions.

This proposal, presented during Canada’s G7 presidency, was rejected by the US.

Sources indicate that this is due to President Donald Trump’s administration reviewing its positions in multilateral organizations.

The G7 Foreign Ministers Summit will be held in Quebec this week. Ahead of the summit, the G7 is trying to agree on a joint declaration on maritime security issues.

The US is demanding tougher wording on China and a softening of rhetoric towards Russia.

In addition to vetoing Canada’s proposal, Washington requested the removal of the word “sanctions” and the replacement of the phrase “Russia’s ability to wage war” with “its ability to generate revenue.”

The G7 declaration is not finalized unless it is published with the consensus of all members.

In February, the G7, including Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and Japan, failed to issue a joint statement on the third anniversary of Ukraine’s military intervention due to the US opposition to strongly condemning Russia.

Earlier, it was reported that European countries were discussing a plan to allow them to seize tankers belonging to Russia’s shadow fleet in the Baltic Sea on grounds of environmental violations or piracy.

According to Politico’s sources, the proposals include using international legal norms to detain the ships.

Additionally, EU countries could act alone or in cooperation by introducing national requirements that would allow them to stop suspicious tankers even outside their territorial waters.

The term “shadow fleet” refers to the old oil tankers Russia uses to circumvent Western sanctions, including a price cap of $60 per barrel, imposed due to the war against Ukraine.

The EU has repeatedly warned of the risk of environmental disaster due to the active use of such ships.

At least nine incidents have been identified where tankers carrying Russian energy resources left oil slicks tens of kilometers long.

In December, 12 countries in Northern Europe agreed to check insurance policies on Russian tankers.

Although ships are not obliged to stop in response to such a request, those that refuse will be recorded in a database: inclusion in this database could be grounds for imposing sanctions.

Denmark has instructed the inspection of suspicious ships that may pose a danger to shipping and the environment.

According to estimates by Lloyd’s List and the Kyiv School of Economics, Russia’s shadow fleet consists of more than 600 tankers.

These tankers carry approximately 70% of the oil exported by sea. Information about the owners and insurance of many of them is not available.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey