Diplomacy
‘Taiwanese politician’s visit is part of US strategy to contain China’

China’s Foreign Ministry on Sunday condemned Taiwan’s Vice President William Lai’s visit to the United States, saying Beijing will take strong steps to protect its sovereignty. Experts described the visit as part of the US strategy to “contain” China.
Lai, a candidate to become Taiwan’s next president in elections in January, landed in New York on his way to Paraguay for the swearing-in ceremony of newly elected President Santiago Pena.
Arriving in New York late Saturday, Lai was greeted by Ingrid Larson, Director of the Washington Office of the American Institute, the “de facto mission” of the United States in Taiwan, and Hsiao Bi-khim, representative of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in New York.
Lai met with Taiwanese living in the United States at a private dinner, where he delivered a speech advocating for the independence of the island.
Lai is also expected to make another “stopover” in San Francisco on his way back to Taipei on Wednesday.
Beijing: One-China principle and China’s sovereignty are violated
Shortly after Lai arrived in New York on a scheduled flight from Taipei, the Chinese Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying that it “opposes any visit to the United States by Taiwan independence supporters.”
Describing Lai as “clinging stubbornly to the separatist position for ‘independence’,” the statement said, “We firmly oppose any visit by ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists to the US in any name or under whatever pretext.”
The statement noted that the arrangements engaged by the US and Taiwan authorities for Lai’s political activities in the name of a “stopover” violate the principle of “one China” and undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Emphasizing that the Taiwan issue is the core of China’s core interests and a “red line” that must not be crossed, the statement said, “urge the US to abide by the one-China principle and to deliver on its commitment not to support Taiwan’s independence.”
The statement said that the incident “once again shows the fundamental cause of the continued tensions in the Taiwan Strait is the Taiwan authorities’ attempt to solicit US support for ‘Taiwan independence’ and that the US is bent on using Taiwan to contain China.” The statement added that China is closely following the developments and will “take resolute and strong measures” to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Election campaign
Laura Rosenberger, president of the American Institute in Taiwan, said on X (Twitter) that she will host Lai in San Francisco on his way home on Wednesday.
Currently a candidate for the separatist Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) 2024 election for Taiwan’s regional leader, Lai has been trying to persuade voters on the island and supporters in the United States with narratives of “Taiwan independence” versus “Chinese reunification” and “democracy versus authoritarianism.”
On the other hand, Lai’s visits come at a time when Beijing and Washington are trying to improve relations.
This also includes a possible visit to the United States by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, which could pave the way for a meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year.
The Taiwan Foreign Ministry announced earlier this month that Lai would attend the August 15 inauguration of newly elected President Santiago Pena of Paraguay as a representative of Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen and make “stopovers” in New York and San Francisco prior to and after his trip.
Paraguay is among the few countries that officially recognize Taiwan.
Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen also made “stopovers” in the United States in early April before and after her visits to Guatemala and Belize and met with US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
In response to the visit, the Chinese military organized a 3-day military drill around the island.
In the context of the “One China” principle, Beijing opposes Taiwan establishing independent diplomatic relations with countries around the world and considers these talks as “interference in its internal affairs”.
Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal: Proxy war against China over Taiwan
Evaluating the Taiwanese leader’s visit and the US policy on Taiwan, Prof. Dr. Hasan Ünal said that the Washington administration is waging a proxy war against China over Taiwan.
Noting that especially if Biden is re-elected, the US will try to strengthen its position against China and accelerate the proxy war over Taiwan, Ünal stated that this is how he sees things going if there is no radical change in American foreign policy.
‘Ideal scenario for the American arms industry’
“From the point of view of the American arms industry, this is the ideal scenario,” Prof. Ünal said, adding, “Think of the investment in the arms industry in Ukraine, and think of the dimensions of a struggle against China. In addition, the US will arm its allies in the Asia-Pacific in such a situation, which it has already started to do. So the Pentagon budget would also be increased in such a situation,” he continued.
‘It would have a negative impact on the American economy and society’
Noting that this is a great scenario for the US deep state, Ünal emphasized that if they insist on this scenario, it will blow up in America’s hands: “Even if certain groups benefit from it, this scenario will have a fundamentally bad impact on the American economy. There is no budget for the basic expenses of the country, but there is a budget for weapons. Of course, this would deepen the problems in the country, accelerate social, social and economic disintegration.”
He added that if US expectations in Ukraine collapse, then it will be difficult for the US to engage in such a struggle with China.
Prof. Ünal also drew attention to the pro-independence groups in Taiwan and suggested that these groups may have forced the US to make these visits in order to confirm their last trump card against “reunification”.
Prof. Dr. Barış Doster: Part of Washington’s strategy to contain China
Stating that Lai’s visit should be read within the framework of broader US policies, Prof. Dr. Barış Doster said:
“First of all, this visit of the politician in Taiwan cannot be considered independently from the US strategy of provoking China and encircling and encircling China from its immediate vicinity, and in this context, the plans to include countries in China’s immediate vicinity in this strategy through organizations such as AUKUS and QUAD. Former US Speaker of the House Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was one of the pioneering steps of this strategy. Obviously, such moves by the US will continue.”
Secondly, emphasizing economic factors, Doster said that the US is lagging behind in the economic race with China, and therefore Washington, aware of the fact that it cannot prevent Beijing economically, has no other leverage left but to increase such tensions and strengthen its military buildup to encircle China.
‘Contrary to US promises to China’
These actions are in violation of the agreements and promises the US has made with China, Doster said, adding that these provocations will continue, but the US has no intention of risking a direct confrontation and military escalation with China over it.
The US administration had adopted the ‘One China’ principle in its diplomatic recognition of China. In 1979, it declared this in writing. At the first meeting between China and the US in 1972, the US said, “I recognize Taiwan and China as one piece.” By 1979, the parties mutually recognized each other. In 1979, the US said, ‘I no longer recognize the government in Taiwan as the representative of China, but rather the People’s Republic of China established by the Chinese Communist Party. It recognized Taiwan as part of mainland China, that is, the one-China principle. “We respect the One China principle and will continue our relations with Taiwan at the economic, cultural and informal levels,” the United States said in 1979.
Since then, however, the US has taken many actions that violate this principle, systematically sending arms to Taiwan, quadrupling the number of troops on the island, the Pentagon allocating a special budget to support Taiwan, and Washington signing a trade agreement with Taiwan. Diplomatically, the United States has also continued to violate, hosting the leader of Taiwan in the country, as well as a visit by former House of Representatives Pelosi.
Diplomacy
Armenia signals potential complete withdrawal from CSTO

Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan announced that Yerevan might decide to withdraw entirely from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) if member states fail to “demonstrate a clear political stance” regarding Azerbaijan’s actions. Kostanyan emphasized that Armenia is no longer making insinuations but is speaking very openly.
According to the Novosti-Armenia news agency, Kostanyan stated, “Ultimately, if our partners in the CSTO, including the Russian Federation, do not make the political statements that were mentioned several years ago after the aggression against the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia, then Armenia will make a final decision.”
The Deputy Minister also underscored that Armenia, as a sovereign state, will determine the right time for its next steps.
Membership was frozen
Relations between Armenia, Russia, and the CSTO deteriorated following the conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, after which Yerevan formally requested support from its allies.
Following this process, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly criticized the CSTO for not assisting Yerevan.
Pashinyan described the organization as a “bubble alliance,” claiming it was “planning a war” against Armenia alongside Baku.
Last February, Prime Minister Pashinyan announced that Armenia had frozen its participation in the CSTO. By May, the Armenian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the country would refuse to finance the organization’s activities.
Intelligence report points in the same direction
In January of this year, a public report released by the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service stated that the country has no intention of returning to full participation in the CSTO in the near future.
The report noted, “We find it highly unlikely that the reasons that led to Armenia suspending its membership will change in 2025. Based on this situation, the organization’s prestige continues to be seriously questioned and has become a ’cause for reflection’ for other member countries.”
Diplomacy
BRICS internal trade volume hits the $1 trillion mark

Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), announced that the internal trade volume among BRICS countries has reached $1 trillion.
In a statement on his Telegram channel, Dmitriev noted that surpassing this significant milestone confirms the strengthening of economic ties between member states and the bloc’s growing role in shaping the new global economic architecture.
He also emphasized that Russia continues to strengthen trade relations, particularly through the BRICS Business Council, in line with the directives of President Vladimir Putin.
BRICS’ share will continue to grow, Putin says
During a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 20, Russian President Vladimir Putin recalled that at the beginning of the 21st century, BRICS countries accounted for only one-fifth of the global economy, whereas today this figure has reached 40%.
The Russian leader stated that this share will continue to grow, describing it as a “medical fact.” According to Putin, this growth will primarily be driven by the countries of the Global South.
In April, Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration of Russia, also said that the BRICS countries, operating on principles of consensus, have become a key force in the world economy.
BRICS expansion agenda
Initially composed of five countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—BRICS expanded in 2024 with the inclusion of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iran, Ethiopia, and Egypt.
In January of this year, Indonesia became the bloc’s tenth full member.
Diplomacy
Xi Jinping to miss BRICS summit in Rio for the first time

Chinese President Xi Jinping will not attend the upcoming BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro next week.
According to multiple sources cited by the South China Morning Post on Tuesday, this marks the first time Xi will miss the gathering of leaders from major emerging economies.
Officials familiar with the matter stated that Beijing informed the Brazilian government of a scheduling conflict. Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the Chinese delegation in Xi’s place, a similar arrangement to the 2023 G20 summit in India.
Chinese officials involved in the preparations suggested Xi’s absence is due to his two meetings with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva within the past year. The first occurred during the G20 summit and a state visit to Brasília last November, while the second took place at the China-CELAC forum in Beijing this May.
Xi has never before missed a BRICS summit. In 2023, he was scheduled to deliver a speech at the meeting in South Africa but, at the last minute, sent Commerce Minister Wang Wentao instead. Beijing provided no official explanation for the change.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, Xi participated in BRICS meetings virtually, with Russia hosting in 2020 and China in 2021.
On Tuesday, the Brazilian Foreign Ministry told the Post it “would not comment on the internal deliberations of foreign delegations.” The Chinese embassy in Brazil did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
However, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun told the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paulo, “information regarding participation in the summit will be shared at the appropriate time.” Guo added that China supports Brazil’s BRICS presidency and aims to “promote deeper cooperation” among member nations. “In a volatile and turbulent world, the BRICS countries are maintaining their strategic resolve and working together for global peace, stability, and development,” he said.
In Brasília, officials have not concealed their disappointment regarding Xi’s absence. A source informed the Post that Lula had traveled to Beijing in May as a “show of goodwill” and had hoped “the Chinese president would reciprocate the gesture by attending the Rio summit.”
There was also speculation that Lula’s invitation to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a state dinner after the BRICS summit may have influenced Beijing’s decision, as Xi might have been “perceived as a supporting actor” at the event.
Lula’s special adviser for international relations, Celso Amorim, met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing, where he clearly expressed Brazil’s desire to host Xi. “I told them, ‘BRICS without China is not BRICS,'” Amorim stated, recalling that then-President Hu Jintao attended the first BRICS summit in Brazil despite a major earthquake in China at the time. “He only stayed for one day, but he came.”
Amorim emphasized the particular importance of Xi’s attendance in the current global context, citing the “US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization” as a “violation of international rules.”
Premier Li is expected to arrive in Brazil next weekend for the summit, which is scheduled for July 6 and 7 in Rio.
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