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Trump and Biden neck-and-neck in key battleground states

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US President Joe Biden and Republican rival Donald Trump are running neck-and-neck in the November presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.

Forty per cent of registered voters in the eight-day survey, which ended on Tuesday, said they would vote for Democrat Biden if the election were held today, while the same proportion chose former US president Trump. This is little changed from Biden’s 1-point lead in the Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted on 29-30 April.

According to the poll, which has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points among registered voters, many voters remain undecided nearly six months before the November 5 election.

Twenty per cent of registered voters surveyed said they had not chosen a candidate, were leaning towards third party options or might not vote at all.

Thirteen per cent said they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr, who entered the race as an independent, if he appeared on the ballot with Trump and Biden. In the previous poll, conducted in April, Kennedy had 8% support.

While the ongoing lawsuits against him challenge Trump, Biden faces difficulties because of his age and his stance on the Gaza war.

When respondents were not given the option of voting for a third candidate or saying they were not sure who they would vote for, both candidates were tied at 46 per cent among registered voters; 8 per cent of respondents declined to answer the question.

Among registered voters who say they are “absolutely certain” they will vote in November, Biden leads by a slim 3-point margin.

In the 2020 presidential election, when Biden defeated Trump, only two-thirds of voters went to the polls.

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Trump renews interest in Greenland following Panama controversy

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump has reignited discussions about Greenland’s strategic importance, sparking strong reactions from Denmark and Greenland’s leadership. On Sunday, Trump announced his nomination of former Swedish ambassador Ken Howery as U.S. ambassador to Copenhagen. During this announcement, he reiterated Greenland’s significance, labeling its “ownership and control” as critical for U.S. national security and global freedom.

Trump took to Truth Social, stating, “The United States considers the ownership and control of Greenland to be an absolute necessity for the purposes of National Security and Freedom around the World.”

Trump’s remarks were met with immediate backlash in Denmark and Greenland. Rasmus Jarlov, a member of Denmark’s opposition Conservative Party, emphasized on X (formerly Twitter) that Greenland’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.

“To the extent that U.S. activities aim to take control of Danish territory, this must be prohibited and resisted. Then they cannot be there at all,” Jarlov asserted.

Greenland’s Prime Minister, Mute Egede, echoed this sentiment on Monday, stating unequivocally, “Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and we will never be for sale. We must not lose our long struggle for freedom.”

Greenland, an Arctic island rich in minerals, oil, and natural gas, has long been of strategic interest to global powers. Despite its natural resource potential, its economy remains heavily reliant on fishing and annual subsidies from Denmark. The Pituffik Air Base, located in Greenland, plays a critical role in the U.S. ballistic missile early warning system and is positioned along the shortest route from Europe to North America, further underlining its military value.

While Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, it has the right to declare independence under its 2009 Self-Government Act. Despite this, the island’s population of roughly 56,000 has so far opted to remain part of the Danish Kingdom, relying on Copenhagen for substantial financial support.

This isn’t Trump’s first foray into Greenland-related controversies. In 2019, during his presidency, he proposed purchasing Greenland. Denmark and Greenland’s leadership rejected the suggestion outright, with then-Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen calling the proposal “absurd.” Trump responded by canceling a planned visit to Copenhagen, labeling Frederiksen’s reaction “outrageous.” Frederiksen remains Denmark’s Prime Minister to this day.

Greenland, while a part of the Kingdom of Denmark for over 600 years, does not fall under European Union jurisdiction, despite Denmark’s EU membership since 1973. Its unique position in the Arctic continues to make it a focal point for geopolitical and strategic interests.

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Silicon Valley giants form consortium to compete for U.S. defense contracts

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Two of the largest U.S. defense technology companies, Palantir and Anduril, are in discussions with several firms to create a consortium aimed at bidding for U.S. government contracts. This initiative seeks to disrupt the long-standing dominance of the nation’s “prime contractor oligopoly.”

The consortium is expected to officially announce in January that agreements have been reached with a variety of technology groups. Companies reportedly in talks to join include Elon Musk’s SpaceX, OpenAI (creator of ChatGPT), autonomous shipbuilder Saronic, and artificial intelligence data group Scale AI, according to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to The Financial Times (FT).

“We are working together to build the next generation of defense companies,” stated one individual involved in forming the group.

This move underscores the growing ambition of technology firms to claim a larger share of the U.S. government’s $850 billion defense budget, traditionally dominated by contractors like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Boeing.

The consortium will unite some of Silicon Valley’s most innovative and valuable companies, leveraging their technologies to offer the government more efficient, cutting-edge solutions for defense and weapons systems. A second source described the collaboration as a way to modernize defense capabilities through advancements in artificial intelligence, automation, and software.

Defense technology startups have attracted record funding in 2023, fueled by increased federal spending on national security, immigration, and space exploration. This trend reflects rising geopolitical tensions involving the U.S., China, and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. These dynamics have bolstered government confidence in advanced AI for military applications, further enticing investors into the sector.

Palantir, founded by tech investor Peter Thiel, has seen its share price soar by 300% over the past year, giving the company a market value of $169 billion—surpassing even Lockheed Martin. Anduril, founded in 2017 with Thiel’s backing, reached a valuation of $14 billion this year. Similarly, SpaceX was valued at $350 billion in December, making it the world’s largest private startup. OpenAI has climbed to a valuation of $157 billion since its inception in 2015.

While SpaceX and Palantir have a long history of securing public contracts, newer entrants like OpenAI are adapting their policies to enter the defense sector. OpenAI recently revised its terms of service, removing restrictions on the use of its AI tools for military purposes.

U.S. defense procurement has faced criticism for being anti-competitive and favoring a few entrenched firms producing large-scale systems like tanks, ships, and aircraft. These systems often require years to design and manufacture, with high associated costs.

In contrast, Silicon Valley’s emerging defense sector emphasizes smaller, more affordable autonomous weapons systems, which proponents argue are better suited to modern warfare.

One source described the consortium as a strategic alignment of industry players to address the Department of Defense’s (DoD) technical priorities and resolve critical software capability gaps.

According to the FT, agreements among participating companies are already underway, with integration efforts to begin immediately. Recent collaborations include the integration of Palantir’s AI Platform, a cloud-based data processing tool, with Anduril’s autonomous software Lattice for national security applications.

Anduril and OpenAI have also partnered on U.S. government contracts, combining Anduril’s anti-drone defense systems with OpenAI’s advanced AI models to counter aerial threats.

“We aim to provide the U.S. Department of Defense and the intelligence community with access to the most advanced, effective, and secure AI-driven technologies available in the world,” Anduril and OpenAI said in a joint statement.

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Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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