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EU leaders convened in Brussels to tackle global and regional challenges

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Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

The European Council gathered in Brussels on December 19, 2024, bringing together EU leaders to address a packed agenda of critical issues. The meeting focused on pressing topics, including the war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and the EU’s evolving role on the global stage.

Discussions also centered on enhancing resilience, improving crisis prevention and response mechanisms, managing migration, and other key matters shaping the Union’s priorities. As usual, the European Council set the path for EU’s global engagement and priorities in the current geopolitical context. Policy analyst Fatin Reşat Durukan shared his perspectives on the European Union’s trajectory for 2025 in an interview with Harici.

Anti-Michel Camp is set

The new European Council President, Antonio Costa ran his first European Council meeting.

Former European Council President Charles Michel had been heavily criticized for his way of organizing the European Council meetings. The new European Council President, Antonio Costa, the former Portuguese Prime Minister, so far casted a spell on the leaders with his way of work. Charles Michel was also known for his rivalry with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during his tenure.

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola praised European Council President António Costa for his efforts to start meetings on time and streamline summit discussions, allowing leaders to focus on political priorities rather than lengthy text negotiations, a shift she called “quite rare.”

Former European Council President Charles Michel declined an invitation to join a group photo commemorating the Council’s 50th anniversary, according to POLITICO.

The Presidency of the European Council means a lot inside the Brussels Beat, as it sets the strategic direction and has a pivotal role in decision-making in macro matters. The summit was also concerned in that sense as experts indicated that the current political landscape in Europe needs leadership as Germany and France are in political and economic turmoil.

Ukraine Remains Central to EU Discussions

Ukraine remained a central focus of the discussions, as it has been in recent years. The European Council released a separate press release for the conclusions on Ukraine.

Ukrainian President, Volodomyr Zelenskyy had attended the first part of the European Council meeting, on an invitation from the new European Council President.

Speaking alongside European Council President Antonio Costa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed the importance of unity between Europe and the United States to achieve peace in Ukraine, noting that European support would be challenging without U.S. assistance and expressing readiness to engage with President-elect Donald Trump once he takes office. Costa, too, re-affirmed Europe’s commitment to supporting Ukraine, pledging to do “whatever it takes, for as long as necessary,” both during the war and in the peace that follows.

The Ukrainian President also stated that Ukraine needs 19 additional air defense systems to safeguard its energy infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, from Russian missile strikes.

Kaja Kallas, EU’s foreign policy face, emphasized that Russia is not invincible and urged Europe to recognize its own strength, warning that premature negotiations could result in a bad deal for Ukraine. She stressed the need for a strong stance, noting that the world is watching Europe’s response.

The EU leaders then continued their discussion on Ukraine without Zelensky.

“China would be only winner from a EU-US trade war” says Kallas

Upon her arrival, EU’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas warned that China would be the only beneficiary of a trade war between Europe and the United States, emphasizing that such conflicts have no true winners. Responding to U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats, she noted that American citizens would also bear the consequences, urging caution in trade relations.

“In 2025, we need to step up”

At the European Council meeting, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola urged EU leaders to “step up” in 2025 to solidify Europe’s position on the global stage.

Turning to the EU’s broader neighborhood, she warned of Russian interference in Moldova, Georgia, and the Western Balkans, advocating for accelerated enlargement efforts. Metsola celebrated the historic integration of Romania and Bulgaria into the Schengen Area and underscored the importance of European leadership in addressing crises in Belarus, the Middle East, and Syria. “Now is our moment to step up,” she declared, urging unity and decisive action for Europe.

Leadership void in the EU

Durukan highlighted the significant leadership challenges facing the EU in 2025, particularly stemming from political crises in Germany and France. “Political crises in France and Germany have created a leadership void, making it harder to tackle economic problems. In France, the government collapsed after a no-confidence vote, while in Germany, the coalition broke down, leading to early elections in February 2025. The economic outlook is not great either, with the OECD cutting growth forecasts for Germany and France.The return of Donald Trump as U.S. president adds more complications, with potential trade tensions and shifting global dynamics”, he explained. These disruptions have created a leadership void, complicating the EU’s ability to address broader economic and geopolitical issues.

He also pointed to financial instability, noting that the OECD has cut growth forecasts for Germany and France. “Draghi’s report suggests that the EU needs to invest €750-800 billion annually to stay competitive,” The challenges of implementing such a plan amidst political disagreements might be compelling for the Union.

Despite these obstacles, he acknowledged ongoing efforts to strengthen the EU’s strategic independence, including initiatives like the EU-Mercosur trade agreement and technological leadership. However, he cautioned that political divisions and the rise of far-right parties are eroding confidence in the EU’s unity and global standing. “The coming months will be crucial,” he noted, as the bloc navigates both internal and external pressures.

Ukraine aid sparks future division concerns

On the European Council’s reaffirmation of support for Ukraine, Durukan highlighted the €50 billion aid package for 2024–2027 and plans to allocate €18.1 billion in 2025 as evidence of the EU’s commitment. “The emphasis on ensuring Ukraine’s participation in decisions about its future is a clear message of solidarity,” Durukan said.

However, he pointed to obstacles posed by diverging interests among member states, particularly Hungary’s resistance, as potential stumbling blocks. “The prolonged conflict, economic pressures, and domestic political shifts could further deepen these divisions in the coming months,” Durukan told.

Climate action amidst constraints

The conclusions also stressed on the importance of increasing the number of natural disasters due to climate change and environmental degradation. France and Spain have faced significant challenges in recent months due to natural disasters. The EU has to balance the budgetary constraints and rising defence spendings with its climate goals in 2025.

“The EU is taking decisive steps to achieve its climate goals through legal frameworks such as the European Climate Law and the “Fit for 55” package. In addition, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, the EU will implement CBAM starting in 2026, which will introduce a carbon price on imports. This system, therefore, will prevent carbon leakage and promote global climate action,” Durukan explained.

In light of the increasing defence spendings, Durukan, “the EU integrates energy efficiency and renewable energy use in military facilities, thus aligning security with sustainability. Furthermore, the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change will monitor progress and provide independent scientific advice, enhancing transparency”, said Harici.

Looking ahead, he emphasized the importance of the new Commission setting 2040 climate targets and sector-specific roadmaps. “Achieving these goals will require a focus on sustainable competitiveness and just transition reforms to ensure inclusivity and economic viability,” Durukan concluded.

Europe

Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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