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INTERVIEW

Turkey, Serbia, Kosovo and Sokullu Mehmet Pasha

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Will there be a conflict in the Balkans, which are still haunted by the tragic memories of the 1990s and the dissolution of Yugoslavia, at the first sign of tension? It’s normal to be worried.

Similar worries were voiced during the most recent hostilities between Kosovo and Serbia. Some others raised the risk that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine would escalate and involve the Balkans as well as a broad frontal conflict between Russia and the West.

After the military activity on the border line and the alerting of the Serbian army, the crisis began the pacification phase. The Kosovo court commuted the former Serbian police officer Dejan Pantic’s arrest, which had caused unrest, to house arrest, and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic demanded the removal of the barriers.

Although there are currently less tensions, conflict dynamics are still active and will likely remain so in the foreseeable future.

We spoke with political scientist Stevan Gajich, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies in Belgrade, to better grasp the Serbian government’s viewpoint on the matter. Stevan Gajich preferred to respond to our inquiries by covering a wide range of historical periods, starting with the present and moving forward to Sokullu Mehmet Pasha and the Austro-Hungarian empire.

  • The border region between Serbia and Kosovo is a particularly complicated and contested situation. We want to understand ongoing developments and conflict dynamics. Is there a connection between the recent destabilizing actions from both sides and the crisis in Ukraine?

The connection is that Albin Kurti, the Prime Minister of what we call the interim institutions of Kosovo and Metohija, is trying to use the crisis in Eastern Europe in order to form an anti-Serbian coalition to pronounce Serbs as Russians in the Mediterranean or the Southeast as part of Europe. He is a troublemaker, somebody who should be dealt with severely and so on. So that’s the connection. Another thing is how it is all happened. It happened because the Albanians are not recognizing the agreements that they have signed, their own Parliament ratifies, the so-called Brussels agreements twice, in 2013 and 2015. According to the agreement which Serbia, by the way, has fulfilled, the only concession that the Albanians made was that they should establish that the community of Serbian municipalities of Kosovo-Metohija. However, Kurti says that he does not respect the Resolution 1244 and he does not respect the Brussels Agreement and so on and so forth. So what did the Serbs do? They left institutions, and that means that the ethnic Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija left the police. So what did Albanians do? They arrested some of the policemen as if these people were involved in war crimes, terrorism and some other nonsense. But the thing is if they knew that, how come that there wasn’t an issue when they were hiring the policeman or when they were in the police force, so this is of course only form of pressure. Also the Albanian Special Forces entered into the Serbian village of Velika Hoča, which is in the south of Mitrovica in Metohija. It is a Serbian village, ancient one, with some 13 medieval period Serbian Orthodox churches. And they entered and they’ve seized 40,000 liters of wine from a family. By the way, for all the families there, their only means of existence is production and selling of wine. They seized 40,000 liters, mixed it all up, which means that they destroyed it. And this was, of course, a form of economic pressure on the Serbs to leave. That’s what the what it is. Also the ‘independent observers’ there was the KFOR troops from Albania, so Albanians were controlling Albanians  Serbs. I mean this is really outrageous. After the arrest of the policeman, Serbs have formed barricades in the form of protest and that’s it. And then Kurti started to threaten with weapons and killing Serbs. Of course, Serbia had to react and to show that if such an attempt happens. And I must remind you, there’s two huge pogroms happened in front of NATO forces. One was in 1999 while Serbian army was leaving, and NATO was entering and the second one was in 2004 when Kosovo was already under total control of NATO. On both occasions, Serbian churches were burned, so Serbs were expelled from their homes. And some 200,000 Serbs were expelled from Kosovo and Metohija, which is a huge number for that province. Basically, that’s what happens.

  • Does Russia support you (the Serbian side) in waging such a conflict with Kosovo? Do you believe it is conceivable to receive military assistance from Moscow while the Ukraine War is still raging?

The help from Russia is important in regard to Kosovo and Metohija issue. Their most valuable help so far has been the support of the international law, the support of the territorial integrity of Serbia on all of its territory, including Kosovo and Metohija, supporting the resolution of 44 and supporting the Serbian constitution. So that was repeated now and there was strong assurance that Russia will continue this support. They have, of course, reacted in that respect but there was no one talking about some kind of military support. Of course, Serbia has a military cooperation with Russia, but it also has a military cooperation with NATO. It’s even more. The military activities with NATO is more frequent than that of Russia and every year statistics show that.

  •  Elections for the local municipality were delayed until April 2023. Additionally, the Kosova government reversed its decision about license plates, although tension is still increasing. What steps will reduce the tension, and what does Serbia think about it?

This is only delaying of the open issues. We’ll see what comes next. The point is that Kurti was doing these things solo, maybe with the support of the Great Britain and Germany, because Germany and some EU countries openly supported them and said the Serbs should leave the barricades, although they did not say anything about Albanians not respecting the Brussels Agreement and also about them treating the Serbs. They always called on ‘both sides’ for calmness, which is a sheer hypocrisy from their side. That’s about it. Neither the license plate issue nor the election issue is solved, so we’ll see what comes next. What is important is basically the Americans. We’re not satisfied by what Kurti did. Similarly let’s took Suez Crisis, where France and Britain attacked Egypt. Americans were against that and humiliated them. This time Americans were against what Kurti was doing while he was getting support from England, Germany, and the EU. That is important. I mean this so-called German and French initiative, which is outrageous, calls Serbia to recognize independence of Kosovo as a state which is really a very salty joke from their side while the agreements that were already signed, where the EU was a mediator, were not respected. That is what also happened in Ukraine with Minsk 1 and 2. Even the Serbian President, which is mentioned in Merkel’s interview, says that obviously the EU behaves hypocritically and that it’s lying in all these cases.

  •  Why did the Serbian army place itself in an alert state? Is there nothing else or options to do than  using army? Is there a specific goal or road map for the Vucic government, or what is the aim of Belgrade?

The high alert of Serbian army was the right thing to do because obviously that was the only way for Serbia to explain the so-called international community. Oh, what a racist term because when you say the international community, it only applies for the political West. To explain them that Serbia will not stand by while their people are being maltreated or even killed or expelled, which was also a possibility, they did what it had to do and it was the right decision. The message was received. That’s why, Serbian policemen are freed. I think that the Americans again are the ones who have pressured the Albanians, and that’s why. You can say that it was by Kurti’s reaction, because once the Serbian policeman Dejan Pantic was released, he said that he wants to see this judge who did that this is outrageous, which means basically Americans demonstrated to Kurti that they have means on influencing things in Kosovo and Metohija even if he is behaving badly.

  • What does Serbia envision for the future? Does Serbia intend to join the EU and NATO? If Serbia’s future plans include joining the EU and NATO, wouldn’t that necessitate recognizing Kosovo as a sovereign state?

No, Serbia is definitely not going to join NATO. That’s an official position because Serbia has a status of a neutral state, according to a parliamentary resolution in 2007. It’s definitely not joining NATO. Serbia is officially on the EU path, but in a similar way like Turkey. The Serbians’ road to EU is not going anywhere. And this is what I like to call a Japanese kabuki theater where the EU is pretending that they want us and Serbian authorities are pretending that we are getting there, and nothing is going on. The EU is falling apart after Brexit definitely, and now the Ukrainian crisis showed all the impotence of EU. Especially Berlin but also Paris are being bullied not only by Washington and London, but even by Kyiv, which is humiliating. Why would Serbia want to join such an impotent organization? The EU has also been very arrogant toward the Serbs. They have promised that they will accept us, but in the Salonika meeting in 2003, nothing happens. There is a fatigue among the Serbian society. The majority of Serbs, according to all the sociological data, do not want to join the EU even if they would accept to take us tomorrow. This is really not an issue, both NATO and especially EU are not an issue. We are looking at other options. I’m glad that Turkey is also joining many of the other international organizations, especially Eurasian initiatives, and I think that that’s where in the future Serbs and Turks will meet in some other form of associations on the Eurasian continent, but the EU as a political wing of NATO and as a relic of the Cold War has lost its meaning. I think one of the reasons for the Americans to provoke this proxy war with Russia in Ukraine is to reoccupy Western Europe and Europe as a whole. I think that London and Washington were not happy about Berlin getting more powerful. Look at now what’s happening. The German economy is being destroyed from within by agents of North Atlantic influence such as Annalena Baerbock and other politicians like Schultz, who are too weak to do anything about it. France is a bit more independent, but still not so much. Why would we want to go and enter a sinking ship, which is the EU? Although the rhetoric from the state will still be that the EU is our strategic goal. That’s what the officials will say, but even they don’t say it as often. They say that there is fatigue in the population, which is certainly true. That’s the situation.

  • What if Serbia decides to recognize Kosovo? Would it be feasible if Serbia and Kosovo exchanged some contested land?

A simple answer is no, Serbia will not recognize Kosovo. There won’t be any exchange of territories. This was an issue until late 2018, but it was highly unpopular both amongst the Serbs and the Albanians from Kosovo. When we had the previous tensions in that period, they all look as if it was some kind of a show between Vucic and Rama. I think one of the directors was Alex Soros, who was also the initiator of the so-called Open Balkans Initiative, which is basically a NATO’s initiative. I don’t think that this is feasible, this won’t happen. We will not recognize Kosovo and this idea of exchanging territories is definitely dead. Why would Serbs exchange their territory for their territory? All of Kosovo and Metohija is a part of Serbia and, of course, other territories in Serbia are also part of Serbia. This is not going to happen, thank God, I would say, and it is good that these ideas have been abandoned.

  • Turkey is the first country to recognize Kosovo as a state, and it currently has excellent relations with Serbia. Do you believe Ankara might function as a mediator?

I think that Turkey and Serbia have common interests, but Turkey has to change its policies. I think that Turkey should look at their best partner and ally, which is Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan recognizes Serbia in all of its territory. Turkey, unfortunately, is selling bioreactors to Kosovo, which is a separatist government. It is also a grave mistake. Another grave mistake, and this is something that the Turks don’t know, is that the Kosovo Albanians have been very aggressively assimilating the Turks from Kosovo-Metohija because there are some other autonomous Turks, especially in the city of Prizren. These people are forcefully being assimilated into Albanians. There is another thing that Turkey does not realize. Albania and Albanian nationalism from the first day were a Roman Catholic project, and this is what I don’t know why people and policymakers in Turkey don’t understand. There’s an Albanian scholar from Tirana called Olsi Jazexhi and he’s saying exactly the same thing. Turkey is being portrayed as an enemy in the official Albanian history books, in the made-up Albanian history. Well, why is it made-up? There is an excellent book by Teodora Toleva, a Bulgarian scholar. She died prematurely but she wrote a book called ‘Austro Hungarian Influence on the Creation of Albanian Nation’. Everything is fake there, from the flag that was created in a studio in Vienna in the 20th century to things like language, which was standardized by the Vienna Court and the Habsburgs. What is important I would say for Turks to know is that all the Albanian elites are either Roman Catholic or crypto-Catholic. Ibrahim Rugova was a crypto-Catholic. He was the one who was portrayed as Albanian Nelson Mandela or something like that. By the way, his life was saved by the Serbian secret police several times because the KLA structures wanted to murder him. Once the terrorist was killed on the wall of his house. He was trying to assassinate Rugova but the Serbian police has prevented that. Rugova was a crypto-Catholic. Hashim Thaçi had a photo with him and the Pope on the central part of his cabinet. Eddie Rama, Prime Minister of Albania, was born as an Orthodox Christian and he converted to what? To Roman Catholicism. Ramush Haradinaj said ‘yes, I’m a Muslim, but we were all Catholics’, and he held the picture of Mother Teresa in his cabinet. Mother Teresa, by the way, allegedly an Albanian from Macedonia, is being praised like an Albanian hero. In Macedonia, while all the Albanians are Muslims, Sunni Muslims, why on Earth would they celebrate a Roman Catholic saint? This is completely nonsense. But that is part of the policy of Vatican, Austria-Hungary, and Italy in the past, which created Albania and Albanian nationalism as a Roman Catholic project with one problem. The problem is how you take a population 70% of which is Muslim and then try to make Roman Catholics out of them. Well, you take their elites and that’s what was done in the past and what is done now. Another thing is when you enter the city of Prizren, there is a huge Inacio Loyola Jesuit gymnasium. The real conflict in Kosovo is not between Serbs and Albanians, but it is between Islam and Roman Catholicism within the Albanian community and I would say even in the past among Muslims that the conflict was between Turkey and the Gulf states that were financing all the Arab looking mosques as opposed to Ottoman mosques. You have these white, small, thin minarets all over Kosovo-Metohija and Macedonia and in South Serbia, which is financed by the monarchies from the Gulf, from the Persian Gulf. That’s another thing. If you look at Albanian history, what the Austrians did is that they took a person of mid-level importance from Serbian history, which is George Kastrioti Skanderbeg. Then they have proclaimed that he is an Albanian and now he’s an Albanian national hero, although his mother’s name is Voisava. His parents and his brothers are buried in the Serbian Monastery, Hilandar in Mount Athos in Greece. How can on earth he be Albanian if his parents are Serbs? But this doesn’t matter. This is only a detail. The point is that both political project of Albanians and political project of Bosnians in Bosnia is a Western project from day one, before the entrance of Austro-Hungarian Empire in Bosnia, which happened after the Berlin Congress. Even in 1878, all the Serbs who took Islam would be called Turks because, as you know, the Ottoman Empire had a millet system, so you can be black, Chinese, Serb, white, Georgian, Armenian, Greek, whatever. But if you are Muslim, that makes you a Turk. So, they were Turks. But once the Austro-Hungarian Empire took Bosnia and Herzegovina and later in 1908 annexed it, which almost provoked World War One back then. They have gone with this Bosniazation of Muslims in the Balkans, Serbian speaking Muslims. They created these Bosnians. And that is why politically whatever Turkey does, even if Turkey stands on its head, the Bosnian Muslims are always going to be a player of NATO. Before that, the Austria-Hungarian Empire simply set the political West. And if you have noticed also during the 90s, while Muslims were being killed in Iraq, the only Muslims who were supported by the West was the Albanians and the Bosnians, the Muslims of Bosnia and Herzegovina. And how both these sides view Turkey as a payer, as somebody who is paying for their bills, but they never give real concessions to Turkey. If Albanians are assimilating Turks into Albanians, and if they’re teaching their history, the Turks are always an enemy.

What were we talking about? Serbs and Turks have to make a new deal, but the serious one this time, because there are issues when where we can really come on the same page. Let me remind you one thing, the Greater Serbia was made by a person who was the greatest grand vizier of the Ottoman Empire, and that is Mehmet Sokoli Pasha or Mehmed Pasha Sokolovic as we call him, or Bajica Sokolovich, because he was a Serb and he knew he was a Serb. He became a janissary. He was taken not as a child but as a teenager, so he is student at a monastery. He was already literate. He was a very ambitious young man, and he was the grand vizier of the Ottoman Empire during the three empires and during the greatest peak of power of the Ottoman Empire. Serbs, as you know, had an empire in Kosovo. Metohija was the capital of (…). It was Prizren. I’ve mentioned Prizren, because the Turks also lived there but are really being, as I said, assimilated by the Albanians. The capital then moved to Skopje, which is now the capital of Northern Macedonia. However, Serbs have this, let’s say, tradition, even a tradition of the Byzantine or Roman Empire. It’s something that the Ottoman Empire became after 1453. If Turkey really wants to be serious with the cooperation with the Serbs, then it has to make a new deal. Let’s speak but let’s speak seriously. A serious talk would start by calling things by their names. Once Erdogan did that, when he was in 2007, if I’m not mistaken, in Sarajevo, he said basically to Bosnian Muslims, ‘we love you and all of that, but you are the same people with your neighbors’, meaning ‘with other Serbians’. And this is, of course, something that Bosnians call themselves now. See, when they live in Turkey, they understand that they are Serbs of Muslim faith, that Turkey is their country and that’s it. I mean they don’t have this identity problem. Whereas the Bosnians are constantly and basically in this limbo, that was again created by the West, it was created by Austria-Hungary Empire out of their political interest because Austro-Hungarian Empire was afraid. It was afraid of the new countries that emerged after the Ottoman Empire left or was defeated, or call it whatever you want, in the Balkans. They were afraid of Greece and Serbia having a huge common border, which is why Albanian nationalism was created as a Catholic project to be something between. So from out of different people of three religions, because Albanians are also Orthodox Muslim and Roman Catholic, they created one nation out of two languages, which is Albanian. Out of Gheg of the North and Tosk of the South, they created one language. And some people like Count Thalloczy and Benjamin Kalaj did completely the opposite thing in Bosnia from one people of three religions. I’m talking about Serbs. Out of Roman Catholic Serbs, Orthodox Christian Serbs, which is the majority of Serbs, and Serbs of Muslim faith, who were called Turks during the Ottoman Empire, they created three nations. They wanted to create three nations. Why? Because they were afraid that this huge mass of people can become a serious political power in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. And that’s what happened at the end. You know that Mlada Bosna, Young Bosnia, a guerrilla Gavrilo Princip who shot Ferdinand in Sarajevo on 28th of June 1914. He was a member of an organization called Mlada Bosna, which means Young Bosnia. And this organization had people of all three religions in Bosnia. It had, for instance, Mustafa Golovich, who was a Muslim. It had Ivo Andric, the famous writer who was a Roman Catholic. It had Cabrinovic and Gavrilo Princip who were Orthodox. All of them considered themselves to be Serbs or Yugoslavs, as they say. Back then these two things were synonyms. They were against the Austrians artificially dividing the people.

If Turkey and Serbia can have a serious conversation about strategic partnership, not about mid-level good relations but about the strategic partnership and if Turkey mediates between the people of the same language and explains to the Muslims that Serbs, meaning Orthodox, are not their enemies, that they are their brothers. If these things happen, then there can be a serious cooperation. If Turkey continues to recognize Kosovo, if it threatens that it will sell Bayraktars, then this partnership can only be superficial. I mean I’m very frank in this interview and this is the whole truth when it comes to the relations between Serbia and Turkey. We have a good foundation on which we can build. And not all of our history is a history of animosity, because of Mehmed Sokoli Pasha. I didn’t mention why I said that he created the greatest great Serbia. It is the fact that he re-opened and restored the Serbian Patriarchate. Where? İn Pec in Kosovo-Metohija. And he has placed his brother, Macaria Sokolovic, as the Patriarch of the Serbian Orthodox Church and the jurisdiction of the Serbian Orthodox Church at that time was huge. It was all of Rumeli, as the Turks say, and all the way up to today’s Hungary. So, the jurisdiction was very big. And that was done by an Ottoman grand vizier. For instance, and that is not the only example, there is a great warrior Omar Pasha Latas who was helping the Reformation of the Ottoman Empire. He fought for it in the mid-19th century. The history is more about shades of grey than black and white and I think that there are these things where we can cooperate on serious grounds, but there must be some kind of frankness and of openness for that from the Turkish side. And if there is not those things like that, there can’t be a serious conversation about really strategic partnership. And again, I can say that look at Azerbaijan, look at the development of the Serbian-Azerbaijani relations, which is really getting better and better. And Azerbaijan respect Serbia. It respects Serbian interests and Serbian territorial integrity. And this is why it is Azerbaijan also highly respected by Serbia. That’s my opinion on the possible development of the Serbo-Turkish relations in the future.

 

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INTERVIEW

‘What we need from HTS is not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal affairs’

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2 days ago

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22/12/2024

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Ziad Makary, Minister of Information of Lebanon spoke to Harici: “What we need from HTS is not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal problems or affairs.”

After two months of intense and destructive fighting, Israel and Lebanon have reached a ceasefire. Within 60 days, the ceasefire was to be implemented. According to the agreement, Israeli troops will withdraw from the designated areas, the Lebanese Army will deploy in the areas vacated by Israel and ensure security. A large-scale reconstruction work will be carried out due to mines, unexploded ordnance and destruction of infrastructure in the region. United Nations UNIFIL forces will maintain a presence in southern Lebanon in accordance with UN resolution 1701.

However, Israel has violated the ceasefire more than 100 times so far, which is considered unacceptable by Lebanon. Lebanese Information Minister Ziad Makary answered Dr Esra Karahindiba’s questions on the latest situation in Lebanon.

I would like to start with the latest situation in Lebanon. Even though there is a temporary ceasefire, Israel is not implementing what was promised. Can you tell us about the latest situations, and I’ll ask my other questions?

Well, as you know, we had a deadly war for about two months. As a government, we negotiated a ceasefire for long weeks, and in the end, with the help of the Americans, we reached an agreement to have a ceasefire and to implement it 60 days after the announcement.

In the meantime, there is a military plan: the Lebanese Army will start deploying where the Israelis will withdraw.

There is a lot of work to do. The army will handle this mission because there are many mines, unexploded munitions, destruction, closed roads, displaced people, and a sensitive military situation between Israel and Lebanon.

Israel has violated this ceasefire more than 100 times, and this is, of course, unacceptable. Lebanon is respecting the ceasefire, and we count on the committee formed when the ceasefire was announced.

I am talking about the Americans, French, Lebanese, UNIFIL, and Israelis. Their first meeting was held this week on Monday, and we hope this ceasefire will be implemented seriously as soon as possible because we have a lot to rebuild after the destruction we faced from Israel.

If Israel cancels the ceasefire and continues attacking Lebanon as it did recently, what is Lebanon’s current position? Hezbollah is stepping back from Syria. Maybe more of their troops will return to Lebanon. What about Lebanon’s own army?

I don’t think this ceasefire will be broken. We will have incidents daily, but I believe it will be a serious ceasefire.

I suppose we will have a complete withdrawal in about 40 days from all Lebanese territory. The Lebanese Army will deploy its forces, and we will apply 1701 as required, including southern Lebanon.

Of course, this especially applies to southern Lebanon because 1701 states that weapons are forbidden in southern Lebanon, and the only weapons will be with the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL.

What do you think about the latest situation in Syria? Now Bashar Assad has gone to Russia, and there is a so-called interim government trying to prepare for a transition period. Hezbollah is back. Iran is stepping back. There are no more Russian soldiers, and now a group called HTS is a candidate to shape Syria’s future. What will Lebanon’s position be toward Syria?

So far, we don’t have any relationship with HTS. What I would like to say is that the people of Syria must choose whoever will rule Syria.

What we want in Lebanon is to have good relations with the future government of Syria because we have many interests. We don’t need a fanatic government there.

We need a neighbor who respects Lebanon’s sovereignty and diversity. This is all what we need.

We will do everything to maintain the necessary relationships to continue ties between our countries as neighbors. We have a lot of interests in the economy, trade, social, political, and even border issues to resolve.

We have millions of Syrian refugees and many problems that need solving with whoever rules Syria. We don’t and should not interfere in Syria’s affairs and at the same time we will not let them interfere to us, too.

I hope and will work to ensure a decent and fruitful cooperation with the future Syrian government.

HTS is on the terrorist group list of the United Nations, and several countries have designated this group as terrorist. But in the near future, things may change. Turkey has appointed a charge daffairs for its embassy to continue diplomatic relations.

What will Lebanon’s position be? Do you consider HTS a terrorist group, or are things changing as they lead the country toward elections?

We don’t have a system of considering groups as terrorists or not. I already mentioned that we will assess the aims of Syria’s future government. What we need from HTS is not to interfere in Lebanon’s internal problems or affairs. Till now, as I told you, we are not the only country that cannot predict how the future of Syria will unfold.

The system theoretically should continue. We are continuing to deal with what we have—for instance, the embassy of Syria in Lebanon, the borders, and other matters. We are waiting for the new state, the new administration, and the new government to emerge, and we will proceed from there.

Will you run your diplomatic mission in Damascus?

Currently, it is not active due to everything that has happened. We will wait, but we hope to have good relations with whatever government emerges because it is in both countries’ interests. After Assad’s departure, Israel has invaded more of the Golan Heights. What is Israel’s position in the region? Many believe their presence may not be temporary.

For Lebanon, it is essential that Israel withdraws from the territory it has conquered. As you said, Israel is not only in the Golan Heights or southern Syria but has also destroyed Syria’s army, air and naval forces, and everything.

This puts Syria in a difficult position. We don’t know what kind of army or security forces the new Syrian government will have or how they will deal with Israel. Everything is unclear now. It’s been just five or six days since all this happened, and we need time to see how things settle down.

One question about Lebanon’s internal politics. After the port blast, you had difficult times with economic problems, and the presidential issue is still ongoing. How did it affect the current situation?

The system in Lebanon is not designed to facilitate such processes. It’s a complex system involving parliament, religion, political groups, and more, making electing a president challenging. It is not easy to elect a president because of our law which is causing things happen late, especially the elecion of president. However, we have a session on January 9, and we hope to have a president soon. We cannot rule a country without a president. Yes, we can manage it; it will continue, it won’t die, it won’t vanish, and it won’t disappear. But it also won’t have prosperity. We cannot develop our country, we cannot build it, and we cannot establish a new, modern administration that reflects the aspirations of young Lebanese people those who are ambitious and want to create a modern country with the protection of freedom and the beautiful Lebanese culture, along with the admirable image of Lebanon.

We hope to have a president, a new government, and renewed relations with Syria, as well as a ceasefire with Israel. In the long run, personally, I am somewhat optimistic about what will happen to Lebanon.

Last question: Do you think remaining without a president during this period makes it harder for Lebanon to address these challenges?

Of course, it has a serious impact. As a caretaker government, we cannot make major decisions, recruit new talent, or pass laws. The system cannot function without a president. We are losing talented young people who are leaving Lebanon, which is not in our interest.

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INTERVIEW

‘China will be the primary international issue for the second Trump term’

Published

6 days ago

on

18/12/2024

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Guy B. Roberts, one of the most influential figures in the Trump administration, former Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Deputy Secretary General at NATO, spoke to Harici: “China will be, I think, the primary international issue for the United States. The various statements by the leadership in China indicate that there will continue to be a strong push to fully integrate Taiwan within the Chinese political structure. I think that will be one of the big challenges in the first year of the Trump administration.”

Under former President Donald Trump, Guy B. Roberts served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological Defense Programs and was former Deputy Secretary General at NATO for weapons of mass destruction defense.

Guy B. Roberts answered Dr. Esra Karahindiba’s questions on the expectations for the second Trump term in terms of foreign and domestic policy.

I know that you have been closely working with Donald Trump in his previous cabinet as you were Assistant Deputy Secretary of Defense. You know how his policies were before, and you may foresee how it’s going to continue from January. What is your primary expectation at this point?

Well, it’s actually quite exciting because I think that President Trump has really made it clear that he intends to follow through on all of his campaign promises. He’ll likely focus almost immediately on the immigration issue—the illegal immigration into the United States—and also on revamping the tax structure to maximize tax reductions for middle-class Americans.

On the international side, I fully expect him to put pressure on allies and partners to do more for their defense and meet the commitments they’ve made regarding spending 2% or more of their GDP on defense. That was a key element in his first administration, and I actually was with him at NATO headquarters, where we talked at length about the need for our allies to step up. Once he gets his team in place, I see those things being critical upfront. Of course, the U.S. system is such that it’ll take probably six months before that happens.


Let’s talk about Ukraine. Trump promised to end the Ukraine war, stating he could do so in 24 hours. His aides continue to repeat this claim today. Considering the war is taking a negative turn for Ukraine in recent months, will Trump be able to bring peace to Ukraine? Also, do you think Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept a ceasefire or a peace deal?

That’s the real challenge. I think it’s unrealistic to expect that he can resolve this in 24 hours, as President Trump claims. It’s much more complicated than that. However, I do think he will engage directly with President Putin. I can see that happening, where he’ll pressure Putin to agree to a ceasefire and take steps toward resolving this issue.

Ukraine may not be enthusiastic about giving up territory, but I do think that given the situation in the situation such as the introduction of new weapons systems, the recent intermediate ballistic missiles that Russians fired on Ukraine, Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk region of Russia can set the stage for quid pro quo type of negotiation where each side gives up something at least at the beginning in return for a ceasefire. Peace, I believe, is going to take much longer than 24 hours.

President Biden, nearing the end of his term, has made some significant moves that could complicate things for Trump. For instance, he signed a bill allowing Ukraine to use U.S.-made long-range missiles against Russia. Secondly, he sanctioned Gazprombank, which is crucial for Russian international money transfers and energy trade. Several other banks are placed in sanction list. What is Biden trying to do just before leaving his post? Is he leaving some bombs in the hands of Trump?

I believe that’s certainly in the back of his mind. He’s setting the stage for successful negotiations, whether he wants to give Trump the credit or not. His administration will probably deny that. I do think that given the kinds of things the long-range fires that he’s now authorized in, the additional increases in military hardware that he’s agreed to and his encouragement by other allies to do the same, is helping and will help in arriving at a successful ceasefire negotiation.
About Trump’s upcoming second term presidency, European leaders were not really enthusiastic and they’re not happy. Some of them are not happy that president-elect Trump is going to return to White House. What kind of reorganization do you anticipate from Europe to a new Trump era? From an alliance standpoint, the Secretary General Rutte has been a very enthusiastic supporter and a campaigner, if you will, just like his predecessor, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to see that the Allies do more.  I think overall they have been doing more. I mean, we’ve had, I believe, over 21 countries now meeting the 2% military spending on GDP, and the others are on the road to doing so. The newer allies, like Finland and Sweden, have shown very robust spending on defense and training, even to the point of producing manuals for the population to undertake certain activities in the event there should actually be a war. That, I think, has deterrence value. The message being sent by the alliance is that we are an alliance, and that if you cross that line and attack any of us, you have to face all of us. Likewise, we have seen in the Indo-Pasific region reaching out to building a coalition with partners in the region including of course Australia and New Zealand but also Vietnam. We just recently sold them some training jets and other countries as well. The Trump Administration will probably be less focused on Alliance building and more focused on one-on-one relationships that are self-supporting in terms of defense. That might be a shift in what we’ll see happening between the Trump and Biden administrations.

You mean that Trump will prefer a personal diplomacy instead of a corporate diplomacy.

Yes, I think whereas Biden administration has been building coalition for example we have The Five Eyes, a group of countries reaching out to build a new interconnected relationship very similar to similar actually to what was attempted back in the late 50s and early 60s of something called SETO, the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization which was tried to mimic the NATO alliance.  For a variety of reasons SETO didn’t work out and it fell apart.

But now that be in light of the Chinese aggressive behavior and it’s claims over the South China Sea and other areas, its belligerency against Taiwan and its refusal to agree to or accept the opinions by the international court of justice on the law of sea claims, the Hostile relationship they’ve had with the Philippines, so outlining islands all of that makes that particular region a potential hotspot. The recognition that the only way that there’s going to be an ability to stop and deter China from continuing and acting in that way is to build these relationships. And I think you’ll see a lot of enthusiasm for doing so.

Talking about personal diplomacy and personal relationships how would you describe a potential relationship between Trump and Xi Jinping, Trump and Macron, Trump and President Erdogan?

That’s a very important area, and I’m not sure exactly how the Trump Administration is going to proceed. However, I believe that President Trump places a lot of value on personal relationships with national leaders. That’s why I think he’s more comfortable and will be more comfortable building one-on-one relationships as opposed to forming large partnerships.

I would expect to see much more of this one-on-one approach, with Trump meeting with various presidents and prime ministers throughout the region that he considers key to establishing strategic stability, whether it be in Southeast Asia, the alliance partnership, the Mediterranean, or elsewhere. I think we can expect him to be much more proactive in building personal relationships than we saw in the Biden Administration.

Okay, talking about Trump and Erdoğan, and the cooperation and challenges between the US and Turkey, let’s discuss that a bit.  Especially the PYD issue, which is a significant issue for Turkey.  The US is trying to beat one terror group by using another, particularly as Turkey is a NATO ally but the US still ignores regarding Ankara’s concerns about the PYD.  That’s Turkey’s number one issue.

What do you think about the F-35 issue? Could Turkey rejoin the F-35 program?  What do you think about those main issues?  And finally, how do you see Turkey’s role as a facilitator in the Middle East, especially in bringing peace to Palestine and ending the war with Israel?

Well, you have just asked me a question that could take the entire day to answer.

Looking at the relationship with Turkey and its leadership, I believe Turkey is a critical partner in ensuring peace and stability in the region. At the same time, there is a lot of turmoil. One major issue is the apparent strengthening of Turkey’s relationships with Russia and China in term long term, which is inconsistent with NATO’s position on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Iran’s support for Russia by providing drones and missiles that we’ve already seen used on the battlefield. There’s also significant political turmoil within Turkey at the moment, you know better than I.  One unresolved issue is what to do with the two million displaced people as a result of various wars in the region.  I think President Trump would be very interested in meeting with Erdoğan to discuss resolving the Syria problem. Trump is likely looking for an exit strategy that would allow US forces to leave that particular area of the Middle East. During the campaign, he referred to such areas as “Forever Wars”, where the US is militarily involved in various regions globally.  Regarding Hamas, Hezbollah, and other terrorist groups, those are major challenges.  I was very hopeful that the Abraham Accords would be the approach that the whole region would take.  This, again, was a Trump initiative during his first administration, involving countries like Israel, the UAE, Sudan, and I believe Morocco. They signed a peace treaty in which they promised to work together to develop economically, scientifically, and in engineering, as well as to maintain and create an environment for peace and security in the region, free from terrorist activities and hatred that have plagued the past several decades. To the point where I saw a country like Saudi Arabia even considering joining this process, it is now all on hold as a result of the Hamas attack on Israel and the response by Israel, which many people consider far excessive to what had happened.

It’s really interesting. I interviewed you in Ankara before, as you may remember. It was a one-hour interview, and we discussed this topic. I don’t want to repeat the same thing; perhaps our audience can watch that episode again. But again, like all the Western discourse, they repeat the same thing as if everything started with the Hamas attack on October 7th. Nobody talks about what has been happening since 1948. Okay, I’m the moderator and the presenter but I want to contribute to this discussion. I really don’t understand why, if the US government is willing to make peace in the region with the Abraham Accords and bring everyone together for a peaceful period, the US does not address Palestine’s need for freedom according to UN resolutions. Under these oppressions since 1948, Palestine has not been given that freedom. The two-state solution is still pending. How many people were injured or killed on October 7? I don’t know the exact number. But now, according to international organizations’ reports, almost 100,000 people have died in Gaza, including those in the West Bank. The West Bank is still witnessing numerous settlements. What do settlements mean? They are taking people’s lands and homes, creating a situation where peace cannot exist. Why doesn’t the US push Israel to implement the two-state solution to bring peace to the Middle East?

Well, that’s a very good question and needs to be addressed. The challenge is that I wouldn’t go back to 1948; I’d go back to 1917 and the Balfour Declaration, which created the environment we are in today. That declaration guaranteed a Jewish homeland. The problem is that you’ve got groups like Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and others with charters stating that their goal is to exterminate Israel. When that’s a primary goal, it’s very difficult to sit across the table and negotiate a peace agreement. If we got beyond that and all players in the region agreed to Israel’s right to exist, I personally believe that all the issues you mentioned would be subject to negotiation. I think the Israelis would give up quite a bit to have a guarantee that there wouldn’t be hundreds of rockets fired into their territory and that there wouldn’t be terrorist attacks all the time.

Recognition of Israel as a legitimate state with a right to exist would open the door to negotiations. I think everything else would be subject to negotiation, and I think they’d give up a lot. But when you’re at that particular point, and again, you have groups engaging in massive human rights violations—and I certainly wouldn’t put it past the fact that both sides have committed law of war or humanitarian violations—it creates an environment where people are consumed with hatred. As a result, that attitude gets passed on to the next generation, and 10 years from now, we’ll have another intifada or a similar kind of situation where people are already at each other’s throats. To sit here and say, ‘We can come up with a solution’ is absolutely right—we can come up with a solution. But there’s no willingness on the part of anybody to sit down and say, ‘Okay, let’s come up with a good deal.’ And that just doesn’t seem to be happening. I wish it would. I think the Trump administration, again, with President Trump’s personal intervention, has a great opportunity to negotiate some of the things you mentioned as enticement to bring everyone to the table.  We’ve had people come to the table before. In the past, we sat down and tried to hammer out agreements regarding weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East or arms control. We came up with some great ideas—they’re all out there. It just takes political will to implement them.

Unfortunately, there is no political will to do it. So, we just have to keep trying and build consensus among the region’s leaders that it’s in their best interest—and the people’s best interest—to sit down and craft a lasting peace. But whether that will happen, I have to say, after 40 years of looking at this issue, the likelihood is that we’ll face another cycle of violence in 10 years. That’s just the way it is in that region.

But we have the reality in the International Criminal Court, which announced an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, because of war crimes. This is the reality—we’re talking about dozens of thousands of people. We always say 50,000 people, but it is almost 100,000 people, and that is really insane. If you don’t want war in the region, the main issue is: with whom do you have war? With Iran, Lebanon, Hezbollah? You don’t like the Muslim Brotherhood, etc., but all of these are connected to the issue of a free state of Palestine. It’s not happening this way. It’s not going to happen. I don’t want to go deep into this discussion because it has no end.

So, in our last five minutes, I’d like to go back to Trump’s foreign policy. He was really pro-Israel in his first term and moved the embassy to Jerusalem. But later on, he also had negative moments with Netanyahu. For the 2024 campaign, he has garnered greater Israeli support this time around. How will this affect his policies towards Iran and the Middle East in general?

Well, yes. I mean, the primary player in the area right now is, in fact, Iran, because it is recognized as the number one supporter of international terrorism. This has been recognized by the Gulf Cooperation Council. They support Hamas and Hezbollah, both identified as international terrorist organizations. Coupled with the firing of rockets from Iran into Israel, which in turn creates an Israeli response, the spiral of violence continues. This needs to be stopped, and there are ways to work towards peaceful coexistence. But as we know, the rhetoric in Iran is “death to Israel, death to the United States.” That kind of attitude does not make peace negotiations conducive. I wish I could give an answer that says, “This is the solution, and it will be embraced by everyone.” But, as you said, we could talk for hours about the problems and challenges in the Middle East.  For example, in Lebanon, I’m watching what’s going on, and I’m actually thinking back to 1982 when I was in Lebanon. We had an attempt to maintain peace among the various groups, and then we had the Israelis invading Beirut, creating a siege situation, cutting things off. It feels like déjà vu all over again. How can we stop the cycle of violence? It really is beyond me. I’ve been dealing with this issue for a long time, and every time we came up with solutions, those solutions were quickly ignored. Hatred then became prominent. So, we just have to keep trying and, hopefully, someday we’ll get to that point.

Okay, let’s hope. My last question is on relations with China. Trump’s cabinet has hawkish figures who are strongly against China. Trump promised a 60% tax on China, which is a big concern. How do you think U.S.-China relations will progress under a second Trump term?

China will be, I think, the primary international issue for the United States. China’s long-term strategy is clear, and President Xi has made no secret of his ambition for China to become the world’s hegemon by 2049. They made statements to that effect and don’t hide it. They have a very aggressive policy of reaching out to multiple countries to build relationships through loans and various other economic incentives. They have also made claims in the South China Sea, which are very destabilizing. These claims are inconsistent with recognized international law of the sea. They have tried to harass many countries in the region over their territorial sea claims.

This has resulted in countries like Vietnam building a strong relationship with the United States. During one of my last trips as Assistant Secretary of Defense to Hanoi, I found the Vietnamese very enthusiastic about working with the U.S especially on defense sector. Other countries in the region feel the same way due to Chinese encroachment and bullying. China has also built a strong global network, acquiring port facilities in the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal area, the Straits of Malacca, and other choke points. They have created a very strong presence which in a hostile environment could be a way to strangle the world economy. We see these kinds of things happening and recognize within the United States that there are activities on the part of China that have a negative impact on national security and the collective security relationship around the world. I think we’ll see a much more active and proactive confrontation of China on these issues. There are some very big flashpoints or hot points, with Taiwan probably being the number one at the moment. The various statements by the leadership in China indicate that there will continue to be a strong push to fully integrate Taiwan within the Chinese political structure. I think that will be one of the big challenges in the first year of the Trump administration.

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INTERVIEW

‘Indigenous peoples standing to fight against colonialism and imperialism’

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2 weeks ago

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10/12/2024

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In Venezuela, as well as in much of Latin America that was colonized by the Spanish empire more than five centuries ago, the month of October represents a date to remember and take pride in the indigenous roots of the American continent, called by the ancestral peoples “Abya Yala”. However, even today, 500 years after the arrival of Christopher Columbus, Spain continues without recognizing the genocide of the native peoples and their cultures, nor does it recognize the plundering of the riches of these lands. Currently, the empire is represented by another hegemonic power, the United States, and by another type of colonialism, the culture of the “American Dream” that seems more like a nightmare, but the threat to indigenous peoples, as well as Afro-descendant peoples that makes up Venezuela, continues to be the same. And in the face of this imperial and colonialist threat, Venezuela and other countries of the Abya Yala are struggling, resisting and winning the battle.

Within the framework of the Day of Indigenous Resistance in Venezuela, which since 2002 has been commemorated every October 12, we interviewed Clara Vidal, Minister of Indigenous Peoples of Venezuela. Vidal is originally from the Kariña indigenous people, based in the state of Sucre, eastern Venezuela, and has been Minister for Indigenous Peoples since 2022.

Why does Venezuela commemorate the Day of Indigenous Resistance?

Today we reflect on the importance of that tragic date, while today Spain commemorates a national holiday, they call it “Hispanic Day”, with joy, with airplanes, etc. That is, Spain celebrates the death of 90 million indigenous people, they are celebrating the greatest genocide in the history of humanity.

But we from Venezuela commemorate the 532 years of the beginning of the resistance of the indigenous peoples who to this day are in battle for a horizon and a victorious future that awaits us.

So today’s reflection is that nothing and no one, not the Spanish monarchy, nor the decadent U.S. empire will be able to defeat us, because 200 years ago we expelled them from these lands, because we do not want more colonialism or imperialism, we want to be sovereign, free and independent.

What are the references of the indigenous peoples in Venezuela today? And what is its importance? 

Well, let me say that we are today in the land of Commander Hugo Chávez, of the Liberator Simón Bolívar, of the Great Chief of Chiefs Cacique Guaicaipuro, the leader of the resistance of the indigenous peoples, because 532 years ago took place the invasion of our lands, and practically 90 million indigenous brothers were exterminated by an European Empire.

Precisely, according to what we have experienced and what our ancestors experienced, we can say that we are a free, sovereign and independent country, that throughout our history we are not going to allow any empire to controls us, dominates us, and that is why we have among our main historical references, which we must always remember: 

  1. The fight of the indigenous Cacique Guaicaipuro, our older brother. 
  2. Then the fight for our emancipation from the Liberator Simón Bolívar, and
  3. More recently, the rescue of our freedom through our eternal Commander, Hugo Rafael Chávez Frías, who after that “For now” of February 4, 1992, and assuming our presidency in 1999, has rescued our freedom, our sovereignty, our independence for the present and for our national future.

The Bolivarian Revolution, what role has it given to the indigenous peoples?

Well, the Bolivarian Revolution gave us the main thing, which is the guarantee of the rights of indigenous peoples. The arrival of the Revolution fought and ensured that each of our indigenous peoples had a special chapter within the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela of 1999. That is where the great appreciation of our revolutionary process towards the recognition and respect of rights begins. of indigenous peoples. In addition to that, the thousands of tools that it has given us as public policies: the Guaicaipuro Mission, the Ministry of Popular Power for Indigenous Peoples, which at an international level is a unique experience. Venezuela is a pioneer in having an institution especially for indigenous peoples, other countries now have ministries, like Brazil, for example, but we paved the way.

In addition to that, we have legislators, in the municipal councils, councilors, we have national deputies, who are indigenous. We have our voice represented before the national, regional and municipal Legislative Power.

The presence of the United States in Latin America

The presence of agencies of imperialism such as the CIA, DEA, or NATO, among other interventionist institutions in Latin America, must be considered according to the excess of their functions. The United States acts not as a country but as an interfering organization in the internal policies of each of the nations.

The United States intervenes in the policies of each of the nations, that is, violating the sovereignty of the people. And the most important thing is that they do not respect the culture and idiosyncrasies of each of the peoples.

Precisely, when we refer to colonialism, unlike imperialism, it is about dominating and controlling and imposing their culture, belittling the cultures of the native peoples. Now, when we talk about imperialism, this is total control, from every point of view: political, social, cultural, military of each of the peoples and nations.

From there the United States and Europe then fall into fascism, neo-fascism and similar expressions. From Venezuela, the indigenous peoples: Say no to the imperial presence in our lands and nations!

Imperialism in neo-fascist governments in Latin America attacks indigenous peoples

The indigenous peoples are brave peoples, in those countries with extreme right-wing, neo-fascist governments, the indigenous peoples have been totally criminalized or have been totally forgotten, denied to exercise their own culture in their own territories. Today we can tell you, from Venezuela, that the indigenous peoples are not alone, and we also encourage them to continue the fight for their rights. The right-wing and neo-fascist governments will never, ever love indigenous peoples, because they want to erase our history.

Those governments will never protect any rights of indigenous peoples. The Venezuelan left, Bolivarian socialism, has been a fundamental part of the demands of all these sectors, mainly indigenous peoples and communities, as well as Afro-descendants, because we are the same people, the oppressed peoples. So to the indigenous peoples of Abya Yala we say that the fight must continue until we get the victory. Venezuela is proof that it is possible to recover our identity, our rights and our indigenous culture.

Imperialism and genocidal colonialism in the world: Genocide in Gaza

We call on the world, the international community, and national and international public opinion to reflect on what is happening in Gaza. Just as today there is genocide in Gaza, against the people of Palestine, we also remember what we experienced more than 500 years ago. Just as it happens today with the Palestinian people, so it happened with our ancestors, just as yesterday our ancestors had victory, because we are alive today. Today we declare our solidarity and tell the people of Palestine that they will also win, because in the face of hatred, in the face of imperialism, in the face of colonialism, love and justice will always win. So today’s reflections are that we continue fighting, because victory belongs to the people who fight for their emancipation.

We are going to remember this date as the beginning of the greatest genocide in the history of humanity so that there can never again be any empire that can raise its arm and its hatred against the people, to impose the slavery of man by man, but rather there is peace, hope as we are proposing from the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela with our constitutional president, Nicolás Maduro.

What is the message that Venezuela gives to other indigenous peoples? 

To the brother peoples of the South, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and also of great Brazil, because in Brazil there are also indigenous peoples, indigenous brothers and sister who were also invaded by Portugal like us; Today we tell all of you that this is the time of the people, we are going to unite, we are going to create a network of networks. The historical block necessary so that this decadent empire, or any other that may emerge, can never again defeat us. 

They have tried today with the Internet, with artificial intelligence, to oppress us, but here we say that with the ancestral human intelligence of indigenous peoples they will not be able to win. Here we are fighting. Let no one make a mistake, because there is a homeland here, as Commander Chávez said. So all our ancestors today are together, united to say enough of imperialism and colonialism. Victory will be of the people! Long live the people! Long live the indigenous peoples! Long live peace and long live freedom!

Finally, what is the importance of the union of indigenous peoples and Afro-descendant peoples in Venezuela

On this important day, Venezuela shows the rest of the indigenous peoples of Latin America its struggle and its resistance. Today, 532 years after the great genocide in Abya Yala, here we are, the indigenous peoples present alongside the Afro-descendant people, the indigenous people in general, the Venezuelan people of men and women who continue to resist. Today we can say with a firm voice, with a voice of love and with a voice of joy, that we continue in resistance.

We continue in a tireless fight for the vindication of our indigenous peoples. And that today in Venezuela we have more than 54 indigenous peoples, that means that we have resisted and that we will continue to resist and win.

Afro-descendant peoples have also fought a battle to survive and assert their rights. And here we are claiming the day of indigenous resistance, but we are also fighting for that ancestral history of the Afro-descendant peoples who were the object of imperial ambition, and which forcibly brought them here, but which today has precisely led us to walk the hand making revolution. 

We are now writing a new history, because we were here before the Spanish empire arrived, because the indigenous peoples were on this land, because the men and women who arrived enslaved now have a new horizon, precisely, which is not to forget history, our origins, but that we also know that our destiny is to definitively free ourselves from the yoke of imperialism, to emancipate ourselves from our minds and move forward towards the new generations with the vision of knowing that we are a people that resisted and that continues to resist because Nobody discovered us. We already existed.

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