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US boosts military presence in Northern Europe amid Russia tensions

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The US is increasing its military presence in Northern Europe in response to Russia building military bases near the borders of Finland and the Baltic countries.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), Washington aims to make NATO more “lethal” by fortifying the alliance’s northeastern flank.

At the heart of these efforts is the American military, despite statements from the Donald Trump administration that raised doubts in Europe about the US commitment to NATO.

Strategic focus: Arctic and Baltics

According to the WSJ, the focus of US military planning is on the Arctic and Baltic countries, where access to maritime trade routes, territories, and energy resources will be vital for the West in a new era of geopolitical conflicts.

The US goal of increasing its military presence and conducting missions through exercises is twofold: to “deter” Moscow and to more tightly integrate allies in this strategic corner of Europe, including new NATO members Finland and Sweden.

Countries in the region are encouraging Europe’s efforts to rearm and increase defense spending.

Message from American general: “Orders haven’t changed”

Brigadier General Andrew Saslav, Deputy Commanding General for Maneuver of the US Army Europe and Africa, told the WSJ, “The orders I have received as the commander of the US Army have not changed.”

Saslav added that the question of future US participation in NATO “does not leave his mind,” but he has “been doing this job for too long to be distracted by political winds and messages that are not orders.”

Russia’s countermove: Leningrad Military District being strengthened

Russia plans to turn the re-established Leningrad Military District in 2024 into a base against NATO.

Military bases, weapon and equipment depots, and an army headquarters to manage tens of thousands of soldiers are being built near the borders of Finland and the Baltic countries.

Small brigades will be approximately tripled in size to become divisions of 10,000 personnel.

New railway lines are being laid, and existing lines are being expanded along the Finnish and Norwegian borders, as well as south from St. Petersburg to the Estonian border.

“Russia could be ready for the Baltics soon”

Meanwhile, Michael Kofman from the Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Studies Center Berlin assessed, “If you ask how long it would take for the Russian military to be able to conduct a limited operation against the Baltic states, the answer could be ‘very soon.’”

During recent three-week exercises, American and British troops, along with units from Northern European and Baltic countries, worked on potential military operation scenarios in the region.

These scenarios included live-fire exercises, blood resupply using drones, and airborne operations beyond the Arctic Circle in Norway.

Christian Atland, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment and an advisor to the country’s armed forces, commented, “With Finland and Sweden as NATO members, we now have an unbroken stretch of NATO territory north of the Arctic Circle. The alliance’s expansion with the Nordic countries has also made it easier to send reinforcements to the Baltic states in the event of a military crisis or conflict in this region.”

Why is Gotland, the heart of the Baltic, critical?

One of Northern Europe’s most strategically important locations is Sweden’s Gotland Island, situated in the middle of the Baltic Sea, where reconnaissance equipment and long-range weapons can be deployed to establish dominance in air and sea operations.

Sweden’s former Supreme Commander Mikael Byden claimed last year that Moscow was watching Gotland “with both eyes.”

Stefan Lundqvist, head of the Swedish branch of the Ted Stevens Center for Arctic Security Studies in Alaska, stated that the island is likely to become a battlefield in the initial phase of a conflict due to its key military-strategic position.

Lundqvist added, “Because Russia’s strategic position in the Baltic Sea is very weak, in any conflict it would immediately try to seize key port areas in the Baltic states, Finland, and Poland.”

During recent exercises, American marines, after firing a HIMARS missile system in Norway, landed on Gotland Island with this system a few hours later. After completing their firing on the island, the troops were quickly moved to Finland.

Europe

Post-Brexit reset falters as France targets UK defense firms

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Despite a post-Brexit reset, France is attempting to exclude British arms companies from the EU’s defense industry program.

A diplomatic source told The Telegraph that Paris is trying to limit member states wishing to purchase weapons under this program to those manufactured predominantly within the bloc.

The European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP) is being touted by the European Commission as the most significant overhaul of the continent’s industrial base. Under the program, EU funds will be channeled into joint procurement projects and the production of weapons, ammunition, and other military equipment.

The EDIP, which has been in preparation for six months, is part of a broader race to spend €800 billion on defense by the end of the decade.

French diplomats have insisted that this vehicle should only be used to support companies based in the EU, Norway, and Ukraine. This would mean that member states seeking to make purchases under the program would be limited to technologies where at least 85% of their components are produced within the bloc.

This demand means the United Kingdom, which recently signed a major defense and security agreement with Brussels, would be excluded from most projects financed by the EU budget. London would also be barred from joint procurement projects under the EDIP program.

An EU diplomat told The Telegraph, “Just a month ago, we solemnly declared that a new page had been turned in our relations with the United Kingdom and that a new era had begun. But at the first opportunity to put those words into action, we closed the book.”

There are also concerns that France’s hardline stance could lead to potential EU funding cuts for factories producing Patriot surface-to-air missile defense systems because they are based on US technology.

This decision comes at a time when NATO’s European allies and Canada have been warned that they need to increase their air defense systems by 400% to counter a potential Russian attack.

“It seems self-defeating not to invest in the only available air defense system just because it’s American-made,” the diplomat added.

French President Emmanuel Macron has been insistent that EU defense plans should be used to strengthen the continent’s own industry rather than allowing funds to be invested in foreign companies. Many EU countries, such as the Netherlands, Romania, and Greece, base their defense strategies on purchasing American systems like the Patriot air defense batteries.

To address these concerns, discussions are underway to allow technology transfers from defense companies outside the EU to those within the bloc. However, insiders suggest this mechanism will get bogged down in bureaucracy, making it practically impossible to secure funding.

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Poland considers partial border controls with Germany

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In response to Berlin’s repatriation of migrants who have crossed the border “illegally,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced that it is “very probable” Poland will implement “partial controls” at its border with Germany.

Speaking in parliament yesterday before a vote of confidence in his government, Tusk also stated that the Polish government is seeking support from other European Union countries to restrict or end visa-free travel for Georgian citizens, whom it holds responsible for a wave of crime.

Under normal circumstances, no controls are conducted at the border between Poland and Germany, as both countries are part of Europe’s Schengen free-travel area. However, in 2023, Germany reintroduced controls on its side of the border to prevent the illegal entry of migrants.

This move drew criticism from Poland due to the additional burden placed on people crossing the border and Germany’s repatriation of thousands of migrants without the right of entry.

Poland’s main opposition party, the national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), staged protests against Germany’s repatriation of migrants. The party accuses the Tusk government of being too lenient on this issue, although such repatriations also occurred when PiS was in power.

Speaking in parliament on Wednesday, Tusk stated that they had informed Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s new government that “on the Polish side, we will control very critically and very thoroughly any attempts to send any migrants to Poland.”

According to Polsat News, Tusk said, “I have informed not only the Germans but also other neighboring countries that if the situation and pressure at the border escalate, I will not hesitate to make the decision to introduce temporary controls.”

“It is very likely that such partial controls will be introduced at the German border this summer,” Tusk said, without providing details on what these would entail or exactly when they would be implemented.

Tusk acknowledged that such measures would create difficulties for Poles living near the border, especially those who reside on one side and work on the other, and he stated that the government would do its best to minimize their hardship.

In March of this year, Tusk announced that Poland would cease to comply with the EU’s Dublin Regulation, which permits the return of asylum seekers to the member state where they first applied for protection. However, his government has yet to take action in this regard.

In his speech to parliament on Wednesday, Tusk also announced that he is working to “form the necessary majority” among EU member states to limit or even completely suspend visa-free travel for Georgian citizens to the EU.

According to Radio Zet, the prime minister said, “One-third of Georgians want to share our values… But I am in favor of restricting visa-free travel with countries that do not meet the standards.”

Earlier this year, the Tusk government took strong measures against what it claimed was an increase in “imported crime,” particularly crimes committed by migrants from Georgia.

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Brussels prepares to sanction two Chinese banks over Russia ties

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The European Union plans to add two Chinese banks to its sanctions list due to their commercial ties with Russia.

According to information from Bloomberg, based on European Commission documents, this step is being considered as part of the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia. The European Commission presented the 18th sanctions package on Tuesday. Sources indicate that two regional banks operating in Chinese provinces bordering Russia are expected to be blacklisted.

These regional banks became a key channel for payments between Russia and China after the US tightened its financial sanctions late last year, threatening secondary measures against all credit institutions transacting with Russia.

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing in May of last year, a payment network was established, involving at least six regional Chinese banks.

According to the European Commission document, these banks are accused of providing crypto services that help Russia evade sanctions, in addition to facilitating payments and export financing. Under the sanctions regime, the banks in question will be completely cut off from the European Union’s financial system.

As part of the EU’s 18th sanctions package, more than 30 individuals and legal entities are also planned to be added to the list.

Furthermore, there are discussions about removing another 22 Russian banks from the SWIFT system and blacklisting 77 tankers belonging to the “shadow fleet.” These measures aim to further restrict Russia’s financial and logistical capabilities.

The European Commission is proposing a ban on restarting the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline and a reduction of the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $45 per barrel. According to the announced plan, shipments above this price will be excluded from European insurance coverage, and European tanker companies will be prohibited from transporting such oil. These steps are expected to further reduce Russia’s energy revenues.

In a statement yesterday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz indicated that the new sanctions package will likely be approved next week. Merz stated, “Russia poses a security threat on both sides of the Atlantic,” adding that the US Congress is also working on new measures.

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