Diplomacy
Will the rich countries keep their word this time?
The United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP27), held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, ended yesterday morning.
At the end of the summit, COP27 President and Egyptian Foreign Minister Samih Shukri, announced at the press conference that the coordination process has begun for the transfer of the presidency of next year’s COP28 to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Shukri also announced that an agreement was reached at the conference to create a fund dedicated to the losses and damages caused by climate change in poor countries.
While poor and developing countries have been demanding this fund and a payment schedule for nearly 30 years, rich countries such as the United States and European Union (EU) members, which alone have the most responsibility for global and historical greenhouse gas emissions, have stood up to the agenda of creating funds and played for time.
The climate crisis is felt the most by the countries least to blame, so compensation is central to climate justice demands.
The fact that the countries and societies, which contributed the least to the greenhouse gases that warm the planet, suffered the most and were least equipped to cope with death and destruction was once again raised at this summit. One of the most important success criteria of the summit was the decisions expected to be taken in this regard.
The West is on at China
While the United States and EU countries are blocking the idea because they fear they may face huge payments and be held legally liable for historic greenhouse gas emissions, they also do not want the fund to go to states on the United Nations list of developing countries, such as China.
The EU then proposed to “set up a special fund for covering loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries, funded from a broad donor base.” Under this proposal, the loss and damage fund will be contributed not only by the wealthiest nations that have contributed the most to historic emissions, such as the United States and European countries, but also by emerging economies, such as China, whose emissions have risen in modern times.
However, in previous proposals, China was on the side of benefiting from the fund, not contributing to the fund. Beijing advocates the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” in this regard. China has no liability for loss and damage, Beijing says, while arguing that they are already helping and are willing to help developing countries to increase their capacity to adapt through South-South Cooperation. Beijing denies the pressure of Western countries in this regard.
Therefore, this issue stands out as one of the important debates between China and the U.S. at climate summits.
Scope of the agreement remains unclear
Despite these debates, about 200 delegates in COP 27 reached agreement on the establishment of a loss and damage fund. However, there are serious questions about the scope of the agreement and whether it will be implemented.
Under the agreement, a transitional committee involving representatives of 24 different countries, will work over the next year to determine the form of the fund, which countries will contribute and where the money should go. The committee is expected to hold its first meeting before March 2023. The operational details of the fund will be determined at next year’s COP28 in Dubai. Apart from this general framework, many details remain unclear.
Officials have warned that the agreement on loss and damage is part of a broader agreement that is still under negotiation.
Rich countries, meanwhile, are demanding stronger commitments from developing countries to reduce emissions over the next decade to meet the climate targets of the Paris agreement, which calls on governments to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C.
According to the Global Times, formal talks between Beijing and Washington, and even face-to-face discussion, will take place after COP27 is concluded.
It may not be put into practice
Although poor countries are pleased that a decision on the fund has finally been taken, many are concerned about whether the decisions taken will translate into meaningful action. As a matter of fact, these concerns have a point. In 2009, developed countries committed to giving developing countries $100 billion annually by 2020 to help them reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. However, this commitment was not fulfilled and was constantly postponed.
Experts also point out that the details of how to implement the mechanism in line with the decision taken and how to quantify the damage caused by the climate crisis are not clear, stressing that this will make the mechanism difficult to operate and leave room for rich countries to maneuver.
It is unrealistic to expect the United States, historically the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, to lead efforts to provide climate finance for the developing world, which has blocked proposals for loss and damage to date. Considering that the U.S. budget for the fund should be approved by Congress, it may not even be possible for Washington to put money into the fund, let alone lead the way.
‘The empty promises of the West’
Criticizing the Western world for their indifference to the agenda of loss and damage, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon stressed that this is a fundamental question of climate justice and that the “rich world” has a responsibility here.
Despite the deteriorating effects of the climate crisis, the West, and especially the EU, has forsaken its responsibility with “empty promises and sweet nothings,” Sturgeon said.
From ‘phased out’ to ‘phased down’
On the other hand, after the COP26, when the ‘phase-out of coal’ was first mentioned, demands for the commitment to encompass all fossil fuels this year were not accepted. The demand for “phasing out of all fossil fuels” was not included in the final text.
Furthermore, the reference to “low-emission and renewable energy” in the text was interpreted as an element that could lead to the development of more sources of natural gas (as it produces less emissions than coal).
Following the sanctions against Russia, the European Union’s retreat from its goals due to the ongoing energy crisis has also attracted criticism within this context. Last year at COP26, discourses and commitments about “phasing out” coal were replaced by “phasing down” this year.
Parade of fossil fuel lobbyists
One of the most prominent criticisms of COP27 was the intense participation of fossil fuel lobbyists. Powerful fossil fuel companies swarmed the summit. 636 people linked to the oil and gas industry reportedly attended the summit.
The sponsorship of COP27 by Coca-Cola, which produces about 120 billion waste plastic bottles every year and uses fossil fuels in the process, was discussed widely on social media.
Greek officials and diplomats find the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel on multiple fronts to be alarming.
According to an assessment in Kathimerini, the deepening polarization hinders Greece’s efforts to play the role of an “honest broker” in Middle East conflicts.
While Athens wants to maintain this mediator role, it also highly values the closest relationship it has ever established with Israel. Reconciling these two goals will require a delicate balance, such as sometimes aligning with the majority at the United Nations and other times voting for a ceasefire to resume humanitarian aid in Gaza without appearing to have abandoned Israel.
However, the report suggests that what worries Greece the most is the possibility that a weakened Iran could strengthen Türkiye, which Athens sees as a “nominal ally” but, in reality, the greatest threat to its sovereignty.
Despite this, according to Kathimerini, Greece is relieved that many Arab countries also wish to see Iran lose power.
A statement from the Greek government confirmed that Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis held a telephone conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday, June 14, at the latter’s initiative.
During the call, Mitsotakis emphasized the urgent need to de-escalate tensions in the region. While acknowledging that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons, he stressed that diplomacy is the only valid path and warned against opening new fronts of conflict in the Middle East.
The Greek leader also reiterated the necessity of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of hostages, and the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid to civilians in need.
Furthermore, Mitsotakis discussed the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Sunday.
According to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA), the two leaders reviewed the latest developments in the region, focusing particularly on the effects of Israel’s military operations targeting Iran.
The SPA report noted that both leaders emphasized the need for restraint and de-escalation, highlighting the importance of resolving disputes through diplomatic means.
The phone call took place amid heightened tensions following a series of retaliatory strikes between the two countries.
The recent tension has raised concerns about a wider regional conflict, prompting international leaders to urge all parties to avoid further escalation.
In a statement released late Monday, the G7 countries expressed their support for Israel and described Iran as the “source of instability in the Middle East.”
G7 leaders called for a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the region.
“We affirm Israel’s right to self-defense. We reiterate our support for Israel’s security,” the G7 statement declared.
Asserting that Iran is the “main source of regional instability and terrorism,” the G7 nations stated they were “clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”
“We strongly recommend that resolving the Iran crisis will lead to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza,” the G7 communiqué said, adding that the countries are also prepared to coordinate on maintaining stability in energy markets.
Iran maintains that it is not pursuing nuclear weapons and, as a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), has the right to develop nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, including enrichment.
Israel, which is not a party to the NPT, is widely believed to be the only country in the Middle East with nuclear weapons, a status it neither confirms nor denies.
President Donald Trump decided to leave the G7 summit in Canada early and return to Washington due to the situation in the Middle East.
The US maintains that it has not been involved in the attacks on Iran so far, despite Trump stating on Friday that he had prior knowledge of Israel’s strikes and described them as “perfect.”
Washington is warning Tehran not to attack US interests or personnel in the region.
Following Monday’s strike, in which Israel hit Iranian state television, Trump said on social media that “everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.”
Additionally, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussed the Israel-Iran conflict in phone calls with his British, French, and EU counterparts on Monday.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its new report titled Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, announced that the era of nuclear weapons reduction, which has been ongoing since the end of the Cold War, has effectively concluded.
According to the report, while the number of military conflicts worldwide decreased in 2024, the number of fatalities in these conflicts rose. Global military spending and international arms transfers have also reached record levels not seen since the Cold War.
The era of nuclear disarmament is over
The authors of the SIPRI report state that “the era of nuclear weapons reduction has clearly ended,” and the prospect of nuclear disarmament is at its weakest point since the end of the Cold War.
The primary trigger for this situation is cited as the mutual inspection crisis within the framework of the New START Treaty between the US and Russia, which remains in effect until 2026.
Moscow suspended its participation in the treaty in February 2023, accusing NATO of involvement in attacks on Ukraine’s strategic airfields. This development is reviving debates on nuclear status in Europe and the Middle East, prompting updates to strategies against the potential proliferation of such weapons.
The report predicts that if Donald Trump is re-elected as US president in 2025, the “paradoxical situation” of his first term will be repeated, and none of the key nuclear powers will “commit to defending the world order.”
The report notes that the US, China, and Russia have begun modernizing their arsenals, with Russia updating its doctrine and the US upgrading its warheads.
“Returning to an era of constraints will require an agreement among the three nuclear powers,” the report states. Although SIPRI views US contacts with China on this issue more positively, it notes that these discussions are “undermined by support for Taiwan and sanctions.”
Fewer conflicts, more casualties
According to SIPRI’s calculations, 51 states were involved in conflicts in 2023, a number that dropped to 49 in 2024. The number of conflicts with over 10,000 fatalities also decreased slightly, from 20 to 19.
The largest conflicts were identified as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war, civil wars in Sudan and Myanmar, and the insurgency in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.
In contrast, total fatalities from conflicts rose from 188,000 in 2023 to 239,000 in 2024. Due to the conflict in Ukraine, Europe became the region with the highest number of casualties.
Outside of Europe, it was noted that most conflicts occurred “within states or between clusters of states with porous borders,” with the war in Gaza also falling into this category.
Defense spending breaks records
SIPRI’s April report indicated that in 2024, the growth rate of state military spending (9.4%) and the total amount ($2.7 trillion) reached record levels since the end of the Cold War. In Europe, defense appropriations increased by 17%, while in Ukraine, they rose by 3.9%.
China, ranking second in spending, increased its expenditures by 7% in 2024, while Russia also raised its spending. The world leader, the US, saw its spending increase by 5.7%.
In the Middle East, the total increase for the region was 9.4%, driven by a 65% rise in spending by Israel, which has been at war since 2023, and a 12% increase by a rearming Turkey.
Arms companies see rising revenues
SIPRI presented data on the largest defense industry companies for 2023. The revenue of the world’s top 100 defense companies grew by 2.8% from 2022 to 2023, reaching $632 billion.
Of the top 100 companies, 75 increased their revenue, and 39 doubled it. The list of the top 100 companies by revenue includes 41 US firms, with China in second place with nine companies.
Half of the top 10 highest-earning companies are from the US. The total revenue of American arms manufacturers reached $315 billion, accounting for half of the global total.
International arms trade at a peak
According to the SIPRI report, the 2020–2024 period was the second most intense five-year span for international arms transfers, surpassed only by the 1980–1984 period when the Cold War last escalated.
The report states that the largest exporters are traditionally the US, France, Russia, China, and Germany, which together account for 71% of global exports.
The largest buyers were Ukraine, India, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, accounting for 35% of imports. Over the past 10 years, China has shifted from being an importer to an exporter, reducing its foreign purchases by two-thirds.
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