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Will the rich countries keep their word this time?

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The United Nations (UN) Climate Change Conference (COP27), held in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, ended yesterday morning.

At the end of the summit, COP27 President and Egyptian Foreign Minister Samih Shukri, announced at the press conference that the coordination process has begun for the transfer of the presidency of next year’s COP28 to the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Shukri also announced that an agreement was reached at the conference to create a fund dedicated to the losses and damages caused by climate change in poor countries.

While poor and developing countries have been demanding this fund and a payment schedule for nearly 30 years, rich countries such as the United States and European Union (EU) members, which alone have the most responsibility for global and historical greenhouse gas emissions, have stood up to the agenda of creating funds and played for time.

The climate crisis is felt the most by the countries least to blame, so compensation is central to climate justice demands.

The fact that the countries and societies, which contributed the least to the greenhouse gases that warm the planet, suffered the most and were least equipped to cope with death and destruction was once again raised at this summit. One of the most important success criteria of the summit was the decisions expected to be taken in this regard.

The West is on at China

While the United States and EU countries are blocking the idea because they fear they may face huge payments and be held legally liable for historic greenhouse gas emissions, they also do not want the fund to go to states on the United Nations list of developing countries, such as China.

The EU then proposed to “set up a special fund for covering loss and damage in the most vulnerable countries, funded from a broad donor base.” Under this proposal, the loss and damage fund will be contributed not only by the wealthiest nations that have contributed the most to historic emissions, such as the United States and European countries, but also by emerging economies, such as China, whose emissions have risen in modern times.

However, in previous proposals, China was on the side of benefiting from the fund, not contributing to the fund. Beijing advocates the principle of “common but differentiated responsibility” in this regard. China has no liability for loss and damage, Beijing says, while arguing that they are already helping and are willing to help developing countries to increase their capacity to adapt through South-South Cooperation. Beijing denies the pressure of Western countries in this regard.

Therefore, this issue stands out as one of the important debates between China and the U.S. at climate summits.

Scope of the agreement remains unclear

Despite these debates, about 200 delegates in COP 27 reached agreement on the establishment of a loss and damage fund. However, there are serious questions about the scope of the agreement and whether it will be implemented.

Under the agreement, a transitional committee involving representatives of 24 different countries, will work over the next year to determine the form of the fund, which countries will contribute and where the money should go. The committee is expected to hold its first meeting before March 2023. The operational details of the fund will be determined at next year’s COP28 in Dubai. Apart from this general framework, many details remain unclear.

Officials have warned that the agreement on loss and damage is part of a broader agreement that is still under negotiation.

Rich countries, meanwhile, are demanding stronger commitments from developing countries to reduce emissions over the next decade to meet the climate targets of the Paris agreement, which calls on governments to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably 1.5°C.

According to the Global Times, formal talks between Beijing and Washington, and even face-to-face discussion, will take place after COP27 is concluded.

It may not be put into practice

Although poor countries are pleased that a decision on the fund has finally been taken, many are concerned about whether the decisions taken will translate into meaningful action. As a matter of fact, these concerns have a point. In 2009, developed countries committed to giving developing countries $100 billion annually by 2020 to help them reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. However, this commitment was not fulfilled and was constantly postponed.

Experts also point out that the details of how to implement the mechanism in line with the decision taken and how to quantify the damage caused by the climate crisis are not clear, stressing that this will make the mechanism difficult to operate and leave room for rich countries to maneuver.

It is unrealistic to expect the United States, historically the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, to lead efforts to provide climate finance for the developing world, which has blocked proposals for loss and damage to date. Considering that the U.S. budget for the fund should be approved by Congress, it may not even be possible for Washington to put money into the fund, let alone lead the way.

‘The empty promises of the West’ 

Criticizing the Western world for their indifference to the agenda of loss and damage, Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon stressed that this is a fundamental question of climate justice and that the “rich world” has a responsibility here.

Despite the deteriorating effects of the climate crisis, the West, and especially the EU, has forsaken its responsibility with “empty promises and sweet nothings,” Sturgeon said.

From ‘phased out’ to ‘phased down’

On the other hand, after the COP26, when the ‘phase-out of coal’ was first mentioned, demands for the commitment to encompass all fossil fuels this year were not accepted. The demand for “phasing out of all fossil fuels” was not included in the final text.

Furthermore, the reference to “low-emission and renewable energy” in the text was interpreted as an element that could lead to the development of more sources of natural gas (as it produces less emissions than coal).

Following the sanctions against Russia, the European Union’s retreat from its goals due to the ongoing energy crisis has also attracted criticism within this context. Last year at COP26, discourses and commitments about “phasing out” coal were replaced by “phasing down” this year.

Parade of fossil fuel lobbyists

One of the most prominent criticisms of COP27 was the intense participation of fossil fuel lobbyists. Powerful fossil fuel companies swarmed the summit. 636 people linked to the oil and gas industry reportedly attended the summit.

The sponsorship of COP27 by Coca-Cola, which produces about 120 billion waste plastic bottles every year and uses fossil fuels in the process, was discussed widely on social media.

DIPLOMACY

NATO demands investigation into Azerbaijani plane crash amid Russian missile allegations

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NATO has urged a comprehensive investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane on Wednesday morning, which resulted in the tragic loss of 38 lives. Suspicion is growing that Russian air defense systems may have been involved in the incident.

The Embraer E190 passenger aircraft was en route from Baku, the Azerbaijani capital, to Grozny, the Chechen capital, when passengers reportedly heard an explosion. The plane was diverted hundreds of kilometers off course before crashing near the Kazakh city of Aktau. Miraculously, 29 people survived the crash.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the families and victims of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J28243,” NATO spokeswoman Farah Dakhlallah said in a statement on X (formerly Twitter) on Thursday. “We wish a speedy recovery to those injured in the crash and call for a thorough investigation.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov echoed the call for patience, stating on Thursday, “We need to wait for the conclusion of the investigation,” while cautioning against premature assumptions.

Russia’s aviation watchdog attributed the crash to a collision with a flock of birds, which allegedly forced the aircraft to divert to Aktau. However, competing theories have emerged.

Media outlets including Reuters and Azerbaijan’s Caliber have speculated that the passenger plane was struck by a Russian air defense missile. These reports suggest the incident occurred in an area where Moscow has been actively targeting Ukrainian drones in recent weeks.

According to Caliber, citing Azerbaijani officials, the aircraft’s emergency request to land at three nearby Russian airports was denied. Instead, the plane was directed to fly over the Caspian Sea, exacerbating its perilous situation.

Further fueling these suspicions are reports of a simultaneous drone strike on Grozny. In a now-deleted Instagram post, Chechen Security Council Secretary Khamzat Kadyrov claimed that a drone attack on Grozny had been successfully neutralized.

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Brazil-Britain relations strengthen amid global challenges

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As Donald Trump’s second term looms and European allies like France and Germany grapple with political instability, the United Kingdom is seeking new allies on the global stage, POLITICO reports.

In this context, Keir Starmer’s administration has been cultivating strong ties with Brazil and the Lula government. Since Starmer assumed office as Prime Minister in July, at least 12 British ministers have traveled to Brazil, signaling a deepening partnership.

This intensified engagement coincides with Brazil hosting this year’s G20 summit, but it also highlights shared priorities in addressing the global climate crisis. Since November, the UK and Brazil have collaborated on launching a multilateral clean energy agreement, setting ambitious new climate targets, and laying groundwork for the next major United Nations Climate Summit in Belém, Brazil, in 2025.

According to Robin Niblett, former director general of the British think tank Chatham House, these are precisely the types of “coalitions of the willing” that leaders with a “green conscience” must forge amid global uncertainty.

However, bilateral ties are not without challenges. Disagreements over Russia and Ukraine represent a major foreign policy hurdle for both nations. To strengthen their alliance, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has invited Starmer for another visit next year, aiming to “map opportunities and economic areas for collaboration,” according to an official Brazilian statement.

The relationship between the two leaders extends beyond formal diplomacy. According to Antonio Patriota, Brazil’s ambassador to London, their shared enthusiasm for football has added a personal touch to diplomatic meetings. In fact, the initial moments of their bilateral discussions at the G20 summit were dedicated to football, POLITICO noted.

Foreign Secretary David Lammy also underscored the importance of climate issues in British foreign policy during his visit to Brazil last summer, preceding the general election. Starmer, then opposition leader, first met Lula at COP28 in 2023. This meeting laid the groundwork for the Clean Power Alliance energy agreement, which now includes 11 nations and the African Union. The alliance has pledged to triple renewable energy output by 2030, according to a British government official.

As POLITICO reports, the United Kingdom’s pivot to Brazil also reflects its need for dependable allies post-Brexit, particularly as the United States becomes less reliable under Trump. The new U.S. energy secretary, businessman Chris Wright, has accused the UK of “impoverishing people” with its green policies, further complicating transatlantic relations.

In Brazil, Starmer sees an ally capable of bridging the divide between developed nations, such as those in the G7 and NATO, and developing nations within the G20 and beyond. A UK government official described the partnership as exemplifying “cooperation between the Global North and South.”

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China’s diplomatic influence in the Middle East at risk

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Beijing’s brokering of a historic peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia last year marked a significant shift in China’s engagement with the Middle East. The agreement was seen as a landmark achievement, positioning China as a mediator in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

For Tehran, facing economic and geopolitical pressure from the Biden administration, the deal was a diplomatic breakthrough. It also offered a chance to reduce isolation with Beijing’s support.

However, the recent overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the setbacks faced by Hamas and Hezbollah in their conflict with Israel have fragmented Iran’s regional influence. These developments, coupled with growing threats from Israel, pose significant challenges to Tehran’s strategic position.

Experts suggest that the return of a hawkish U.S. administration under Donald Trump could strengthen the China-Iran alliance. Shared pressures may push both nations toward closer cooperation, reshaping the region’s diplomatic dynamics.

Chinese analysts caution, however, that Beijing’s ability to sustain its mediation role may be at risk. Rising tensions between Tehran and other regional powers could jeopardize the peace China’s diplomacy has fostered. Such conflicts would not only test Beijing’s influence but also challenge its long-term strategic interests in the Middle East.

Fan Hongda, a professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies at Shanghai University of International Studies, notes that U.S. pressure on Iran is unlikely to wane. “Coupled with Israel’s strikes and the destruction of Iranian-backed forces such as Hamas and Hezbollah last year, this will compel Iran to favor closer cooperation with other powers, including China and Russia,” Fan remarked.

Iran’s economic woes date back to the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the imposition of stricter sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign. These sanctions continue to hinder Tehran’s economy, influencing its strategic partnerships and regional policies.

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