Europe
NATO countries bordering Russia increase military spending by 32%
According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the military spending of the NATO “belt” countries bordering Russia increased by 32% in 2024, rising from $88.5 billion to $116.6 billion.
The share of GDP these countries allocated to defense was 1.7% in 2021, increasing to 2.1% in 2023 and reaching 2.5% in 2024. This growth rate is significantly above the alliance’s overall average, which saw spending increase by 12% in one year.
Of the 12 NATO countries extending from Türkiye to Norway with a land or sea border with Russia, Belarus, or Ukraine, 10 joined the organization after 1999 as part of the alliance’s eastward expansion waves.
Border spending increased by a third
Among these countries, Poland had the highest defense spending in 2024 at $38 billion, a 44% increase compared to 2023. Poland was followed by Türkiye, which increased its spending by 28% to $25 billion, and Sweden, with a 38% increase to $12 billion.
Ukraine’s military budget for 2024 was set at $65 billion, with two-thirds of this amount, $41 billion, covered by foreign financial aid. Including $44 billion in Western military shipments, Ukraine’s total military budget reached $109 billion (57% of its GDP).
When Ukraine is included, the total spending of this NATO “belt” reaches $226 billion. This figure is one and a half times greater than Russia’s spending, which SIPRI estimates at $149 billion for 2024.
Looking at the period since 2021, the defense budgets of NATO countries bordering Russia have risen from $47 billion to $87 billion in three years.
The increase relative to the economy was 0.8% of GDP. Poland, in particular, increased its spending from 2.2% to 4.2% of GDP, surpassing even the US in this regard and becoming the most militarized member of the alliance.
Kyiv’s total military budget, including foreign military aid, increased from $10 billion to $118 billion.
NATO’s 5% target: “Unfeasible”
At the NATO summit in June, member countries committed to allocating 5% of their GDP to defense by 2035.
This commitment requires at least 3.5% of GDP to be spent on basic armament needs, with the remaining 1.5% dedicated to infrastructure protection, civil defense, innovation, and the development of the military-industrial complex.
However, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles stated on June 27 that this target is “absolutely unfeasible.”
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez also added that a 5% expenditure would be wasteful, stating, “Spain will spend 2.1% of its GDP on defense, no more, no less.”
“There is no industry that can meet either 5% or 3.5%; neither the American nor, of course, the European industry,” Robles said. As an example, the minister pointed to the Patriot missile systems that Spain ordered in 2024 but will not receive before 2030.
In 2024, the defense spending of 14 of the 32 member countries remained below the previously agreed-upon target of 2% of GDP. Europe’s average spending rose from 1.65% of GDP in 2021 to 2.02% in 2024. US spending remained stable at 3.4% of GDP.
“Russian threat” rhetoric and spending plans
The arms buildup in Europe is escalating alongside rhetoric about the “Russian threat.” At the June summit, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said, “Russia is increasing and restructuring its armed forces at a surprising speed.”
“In three, five, or seven years, Russia could successfully attack us. That is why we must be prepared,” Rutte added, emphasizing the need to increase military spending.
In contrast, Russia plans to reduce its military spending over the next three years. Following the statements from NATO officials in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin remarked, “Everyone [in the government] is thinking in this direction. Europe, on the other hand, is thinking about how to increase its spending. So, who is preparing for aggressive actions? Us or them?”
Putin continued, “If everything of ours is falling apart, how do we intend to attack NATO? They are talking nonsense, and they absolutely do not believe it themselves. But they are trying to convince their own people. Why? To extract more money from people and make them accept the heavy burden of spending in the social sphere.”
In March, the European Union approved a rearmament plan called ReArm Europe worth €800 billion. According to the program, financing for this plan is intended to come from aid programs for the EU’s less developed regions, raising budget deficit and public debt thresholds, and more actively attracting private capital.
NATO Secretary General Rutte stressed the need to establish additional production lines, stating that the priorities are ammunition, maneuverable ground forces, long-range missiles, and air defense systems.
“You can raise taxes, increase debt, or find savings elsewhere. But that is the job of national politicians, not mine. All I have to do is make sure we have what we need so that we don’t collectively have to take Russian language courses,” Rutte suggested.
France’s military spending as a proportion of GDP rose from 1.98% in 2021 to 2.05% in 2024.
Europe
Digital ministers from D9+ group urge EU to establish common age limit for social media
Digital ministers from the D9+ group, which represents some of the European Union’s most digitally advanced member states, are pushing for a unified approach to address growing concerns over children’s safety on social media.
In a joint declaration, 14 EU tech ministers led by Luxembourg called on the European Commission to adopt “a truly European approach to protecting children online” by coordinating the enforcement of EU rules governing child safety.
They also urged the bloc to develop “a common approach to the digital age of majority across the EU,” referring to a potential union-wide age limit for accessing social media platforms.
Last month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen indicated that the bloc could consider introducing legislation to this effect as early as this summer.
However, the declaration also highlights a dissenting voice. Estonia, which has emerged as a prominent critic of EU social media restrictions, raised objections to horizontal age restrictions at the EU level and stated that it does not support provisions aimed at enforcing age limits on digital platforms.
Estonia also opposed what it described as “disproportionate” age verification measures that would require all users to verify their age and identity.
In contrast, the remaining members of the D9+ group supported “privacy-preserving EU-wide age verification” in the declaration.
This position appears to reference the EU’s own age-verification technology intended for national implementation, which the Commission asserts is secure from a privacy perspective.
The member states also demanded that online platforms adapt their interfaces based on the age and vulnerability of their users.
This refers to ensuring platforms are safe by design and age-appropriate by default.
Furthermore, the ministers requested that the Digital Fairness Act (DFA)—a set of rules aimed at strengthening online consumer protection by tackling dark patterns and addictive designs, which the Commission plans to propose by the end of the year—be a “targeted” instrument within the context of the bloc’s broader regulatory simplification efforts.
The declaration also addresses other digital policy areas, with a particular emphasis on the EU’s technology sovereignty following the Commission’s adoption of a major microchip and cloud proposal last week.
The 14 digital ministers demanded that technology sovereignty be pursued “openly,” calling for measures to ensure that digital sovereignty does not become “solely an EU-specific vision.”
This phrasing implies that the D9+ countries would reject EU digital infrastructure support measures that could be accused of being protectionist by excluding foreign providers.
The Commission’s draft Cloud and AI Development Act allows foreign cloud providers the flexibility to obtain certification as EU partners at nearly the highest sovereignty levels.
The D9+ group includes the following countries: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden.
Europe
Germany and France scrap joint fighter jet project amid industrial deadlock
Germany and France have abandoned their plans to jointly develop a next-generation fighter jet, following deep-seated industrial disputes that have derailed one of Europe’s most ambitious defense initiatives.
The collapse of the program represents a significant setback for French President Emmanuel Macron’s long-standing vision of strengthening European defense integration and strategic autonomy.
A German government official, speaking to POLITICO on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, stated: “President [Emmanuel] Macron and Federal Chancellor [Friedrich Merz] have reached a joint conclusion that the companies involved are unable to come together to produce a joint fighter aircraft. They accept this reality.” The official added: “For this reason, Chancellor Merz has advised President Macron not to pursue further work on the development of a joint combat aircraft.”
The project, known as the Future Combat Air System (FCAS), was launched in 2017 but had repeatedly stalled due to fierce disagreements between France’s Dassault Aviation and Germany’s Airbus Defence and Space over which entity would take the lead. Spain is also a partner in the FCAS program, which was intended to replace the German Eurofighter and the French Rafale fleets by approximately 2040.
Beyond the core fighter jet, the program encompasses a “system of systems,” including drones and a “combat cloud”—a digital backbone designed to integrate sensors, satellites, unmanned platforms, and manned aircraft into a single operational network.
Late Monday, the Elysee Palace issued a statement confirming that Airbus Defence and Space and Dassault Aviation had failed to reach an agreement. The French presidency implied that the decision to terminate the project was a unilateral German move, telling reporters: “German authorities concluded that it was no longer possible to exert further pressure on the companies in question. France maintains the view that Franco-German cooperation in defense and security remains vital for both our countries and our European partners.”
Despite the failure of the fighter jet component, the German official did not rule out continued cooperation between Paris and Berlin on drones and the combat cloud system. “The core of FCAS will continue as a European ‘system of systems.’ This is, in a sense, the nervous system that connects aircraft, drones, and other components into an integrated whole,” the official said.
The official further noted that the French and German defense ministries would be tasked with developing a work plan for industrial defense cooperation “focused on several realistic and relevant projects.”
The FCAS is not the only multilateral defense program facing significant hurdles. Joint Franco-German plans to develop maritime patrol aircraft, a next-generation tank (Main Ground Combat System), and new artillery systems have all faltered in recent years. Simultaneously, the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP)—a rival fighter jet project led by the United Kingdom, Italy, and Japan—has also experienced internal friction.
France has effectively withdrawn from the multi-billion-euro, four-nation Eurodrone program. The future of that initiative remains uncertain as the remaining partners—Germany, Italy, and Spain—evaluate how to proceed.
The termination of the FCAS fighter jet component was not a sudden rupture but the culmination of a protracted and attritional struggle between Europe’s two most influential defense firms, Airbus and Dassault Aviation. As previously reported by POLITICO, German and French officials had been privately acknowledging for months that the fighter jet element of the project was effectively “dead.”
The deadlock intensified last summer when Dassault, the manufacturer of the Rafale, pushed to secure the undisputed lead in the construction of the FCAS fighter. Under that proposal, Airbus would have been relegated to the role of a subcontractor with limited oversight of the design, while Dassault would have retained the power to select suppliers, determine workshare, and act as the sole point of contact for customers.
Airbus rejected this approach as a fundamental violation of the original partnership agreement. The company argued it would transform a European cooperative program into a French-led project subsidized by German and Spanish funding and industrial expertise. By September, reports emerged that Berlin had begun exploring alternative options, including potential cooperation with Sweden or joining the rival GCAP program.
Beyond industrial control, Paris and Berlin remained divided over the technical specifications of the aircraft. France required a lighter jet capable of carrier-based operations, while Germany sought a heavier airframe optimized for air superiority missions. Berlin eventually proposed building two separate versions of the aircraft, a solution Paris rejected.
In March, Merz and Macron agreed to give the project a final opportunity to succeed, but subsequent negotiations failed to bridge the deep divisions. On Monday, the German Chancellery officially notified Airbus of the decision to cancel the project. According to La Tribune, Merz is expected to formally announce the decision on Wednesday during the opening of the ILA Berlin Air Show.
Europe
UK underwater deterrent facing scrutiny as all active Astute-class submarines remain in port
All five of the Royal Navy’s active Astute-class nuclear-powered attack submarines are reportedly held in port for repairs or maintenance, leaving the UK with no operational vessels of this class ready for deployment.
According to a report by The Telegraph, which cited naval sources, although a sixth submarine of the same class has officially joined the fleet, it is not yet ready for deployment.
The current situation means that the UK temporarily lacks any nuclear-powered attack submarines cleared for active operations. Ryan Ramsey, a former nuclear submarine commander, described the development as a serious warning signal. “We look vulnerable,” Ramsey said. “The Russians know we can’t get our submarines to sea. When you cannot provide a deterrent at sea, you lose credibility in the eyes of the Russians.”
Lord Alan West, the former First Sea Lord and former security minister, also described the state of the submarine fleet as unacceptable and deeply concerning.
The UK Ministry of Defence stated in response to the reports that it does not normally comment on the operational status of the submarine fleet. Emphasizing that British waters remain protected at all times through a range of measures, the ministry added that strengthening underwater capability continues to be a top priority.
Astute-class nuclear submarines are tasked with protecting the UK’s Vanguard-class strategic ballistic missile submarines, which carry the country’s nuclear deterrent, as well as the aircraft carriers HMS Queen Elizabeth and HMS Prince of Wales during their deployments.
Separately, the UK’s Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, General Gwyn Jenkins, admitted in an interview with the Swedish newspaper Svenska Dagbladet in April that the Royal Navy was not sufficiently prepared for a potential war.
While noting that the navy possesses the resources to conduct combat operations and that personnel stand ready to carry out orders, Jenkins added: “But are we as ready as we should be? I think not.” He indicated that efforts to improve readiness levels remain ongoing.
Previously, The Sun newspaper reported that only two of the UK’s six Type 45 destroyers were operational. One of these active vessels, HMS Dragon, was deployed to the Mediterranean to protect British military bases in Cyprus.
The Telegraph also reported that due to a shortage of available ships, the government in London was forced to utilize a German vessel.
The state of the Royal Navy has been described in the British parliament as a “national embarrassment,” while US President Donald Trump has criticized the fleet, referring to it as a “toy navy,” according to reports by The Guardian.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia has no intention of fighting a war with Europe, dismissing such claims as nonsense. Putin has maintained that Western governments are escalating the situation to portray Russia as an adversary.
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