Middle East
Trump’s Iran strategy faces reality check as US military assets remain stretched thin
The Trump administration insists it maintains a vast array of military options for Iran, yet the operational reality on the ground suggests a significantly more constrained “menu” than existed just one year ago.
American troops and naval assets that were once at the President’s immediate disposal have been diverted to the Caribbean. A critical US defense system deployed to the Middle East last year has since been returned to South Korea. Administration officials further indicate there are currently no plans for a major deployment of heavy military assets back to the region.
While Trump still retains the authority to order airstrikes targeting Iranian leadership or military installations, his tactical options have diminished even since June, when the US launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Furthermore, Trump must now contend with lawmakers who are increasingly questioning whether a new offensive would drag the US into another regional conflict—doubts that have intensified just one week after the President ordered the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
“What is the objective? How does military force get you to that objective?”
Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, challenged the administration’s strategy in an interview with Politico.
“What is the objective? How does military force get you to that objective?” Reed asked. “They are certainly localizing oppression against their own people, but the President has yet to demonstrate that a military strike would either assist the population or dramatically alter the government’s behavior.”
The Trump administration is also grappling with depleted US weapon stockpiles, a result of the high tempo of military operations across the Red Sea, Iran, and Venezuela.
This bottleneck has become particularly acute regarding air defense systems, which protect US forces stationed within the range of Iranian weaponry. Should Washington launch an attack and provoke a robust Iranian retaliation, the US may find itself with a limited inventory of interceptor missiles to defend its personnel against Tehran’s extensive rocket and missile arsenal.
While the Pentagon maintains 10,000 troops at Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, along with smaller contingents in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan, resource management remains a concern.
“If this turns into a protracted, back-and-forth series of strikes, your interceptor capacity becomes much more critical,” warned a former defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters. “We could find ourselves in a very difficult position on that front very quickly.”
White House: “The President has a full menu”
The White House remains adamant that the President’s tactical flexibility remains intact. Spokesperson Anna Kelly stated, “President Trump has a full menu of options regarding Iran.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that senior officials met Tuesday to discuss the US response, though Trump did not attend the meeting.
In a post on Truth Social yesterday, Trump argued that the Iranian government would pay a “big price.” Issuing an overt call for regime change, Trump wrote: “I have cancelled all talks with Iranian officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON THE WAY.”
Navy in the Caribbean, Patriots in Korea
Despite the rhetoric, an administration official told Politico that there are no immediate preparations for a major surge of US troops or assets to the Middle East.
The USS Ford, which was redirected from the Middle East last year, remains in the Caribbean following the Venezuela operation. The USS Vinson and USS Nimitz, two aircraft carriers Trump dispatched to the Middle East in June, have long since departed the area.
Speaking at the Honolulu Defense Forum, General Xavier Brunson confirmed that the Patriot missile defense system sent from South Korea to the Middle East last year was returned in November. “They are back on the peninsula now,” Brunson said.
Pentagon spokesperson Kingsley Wilson emphasized the department’s readiness, stating, “The Department of Defense stands ready to execute the orders of the Commander-in-Chief at any time and in any place.”
Rather than a massive buildup of personnel and ships, the US could opt to rapidly cycle assets in and out of the region, similar to the June operation where Trump ordered US bombers to cross the Atlantic to strike Iranian nuclear sites. Officials also noted that severe cyberattacks remain a viable alternative should diplomacy fail.
“Do not expect a major buildup”
Retired Vice Admiral John Miller, the former commander of US Naval Forces in the Middle East, suggested that a massive troop surge is unlikely and perhaps unnecessary.
“I don’t think you should expect to see a major military buildup in the Gulf region, nor do we truly need one,” Miller said. “What we would see is either a global strike mission launched from our bases in the Gulf or assets taking off directly from the United States.”
Miller noted that if the administration pursues airstrikes, he expects a focus on “Iranian centers of gravity,” including command bunkers, military sites, and key communication hubs.
However, even Trump’s staunchest allies in Congress appear hesitant to support an Iranian operation involving US ground troops.
“It is not our place to invade Iran; our duty is to protect the Iranian people. We will not be sending ground forces there,” said Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma.
Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota added that he prefers “non-kinetic solutions,” such as additional tariffs and economic pressure coordinated with allies.
Both Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker stated they had not been briefed on potential strikes against Iran.
Such a move would likely trigger fresh resistance from Congress. Last week, five Republican senators joined Democrats to advance a bill intended to block the President from using US armed forces in Venezuela. The vote was recorded as one of the strongest rebukes of Trump’s military policy to date.
Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who voted to limit Trump’s authority, issued a warning: “If you are going to aggressively enter another country militarily, the Constitution requires you to ask Congress for permission.”
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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