Diplomacy
SIPRI: Global arms trade shifts as Europe rearms and Russian exports collapse
Europe has more than tripled its arms imports over the last five years, positioning the continent at the vanguard of global military procurement as the United States cements its status as the world’s preeminent weapons supplier. According to the “2025 Trends in International Arms Transfers” report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the 2021–2025 period saw European nations drive a historic surge in demand, effectively reshaping the hierarchy of the global defense trade.
The ranking of the top 10 arms-exporting nations over this five-year period is as follows:
1. United States: Washington maintained its undisputed leadership with a 42% share of global arms exports, supplying 99 nations. Its reach was truly global, providing hardware to 35 countries in Europe, 18 in the Americas, 17 each in Africa and the Asia-Oceania region, and 12 in the Middle East. The primary recipients of US weaponry were Saudi Arabia (12% of total US exports), Ukraine (9.4%), and Japan (8.9%). While overall US arms exports grew by 27% over the period, shipments specifically destined for Europe skyrocketed by 217%.
Peter Wezeman, a senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Program, noted that the US has “further solidified its dominance as a weapons supplier, even in an increasingly multipolar world.” Wezeman emphasized that the US provides advanced military capabilities to its clients, while Washington continues to leverage arms exports as a pivotal tool of foreign policy and a primary vehicle for strengthening its national defense industrial base.
France gains momentum as intra-European exports explode
2. France: Reaching a 9.8% share of global supply, France exported weaponry to 63 countries. Its most significant clients were India (24% of French exports), Egypt (11%), and Greece (10%). Notably, French arms exports within Europe surged by 452% during this window.
3. Russia: The only nation among the top 10 to see a decline, Moscow’s exports plummeted by 64% over the five-year period, leaving it with a 6.8% global market share. Of the 30 countries receiving Russian hardware, approximately 74% of total exports were concentrated in just three nations: India (48%), China (13%), and Belarus (13%).
Sergey Chemezov, head of the state-owned Rostec corporation, criticized SIPRI’s methodology regarding defense sector calculations. “We do not publish this data, nor do other countries like China; these are classified. Where do they get them? They just make them up out of thin air,” Chemezov said.
Germany overtakes China while South Korea ascends
4. Germany: With a 5.7% share of the global market, Germany surpassed China during this period. Approximately one-quarter of German arms exports were directed to Ukraine, followed by Egypt (14%) and Israel (10%).
5. China: Holding a 5.6% share of global supply, China funneled the vast majority of its military production to Pakistan (61% of Chinese exports), while Serbia (6.8%) and Thailand (4.7%) remained other primary buyers.
6. Italy: Italian arms exports jumped by 157% between 2021 and 2025, capturing 5.1% of the global market. Italy’s export portfolio is heavily weighted toward the Middle East (59%), followed by Asia and Oceania (16%), and Europe (13%). Its largest buyers were Qatar (26%), Kuwait (17%), and Indonesia (12%).
Israel secures record exports despite Gaza conflict
7. Israel: Capturing a 4.4% share of global supply, Israel overtook the United Kingdom, a position London had held for years. India (29% of Israeli exports), Germany (21%), and the US (7.8%) were the primary recipients.
Zain Hussain, a researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Program, observed that “despite the war in Gaza and strikes involving Iran, Lebanon, Qatar, Syria, and Yemen, Israel managed to increase its share of global arms exports.” Hussain pointed out that the Israeli defense industry is primarily focused on air defense systems, for which there is intense global demand.
8. United Kingdom: The UK’s share of global supply stood at 3.4%. Its largest buyers were Qatar (31% of British exports), the US (14%), and Ukraine (13%).
9. South Korea: Accounting for 3% of global arms exports, South Korea directed the bulk of its production to Poland (58% of South Korean shipments), followed by the Philippines (18%) and the United Arab Emirates (9.5%).
10. Spain: With a 2.3% share of the global market, Spain’s primary customers were Saudi Arabia (28% of exports), Türkiye (16%), and Belgium (12%).
Ukraine and Europe occupy lead positions
In the export rankings, Ukraine placed 21st with a 0.3% share of global exports. Its primary buyers were China (64% of Ukrainian exports), India (23%), and Qatar (5.8%).
On the import side, the picture was stark: Europe accounted for 33% of all global arms purchases between 2021 and 2025, representing a 210% increase in imports and making it the leading region for procurement. Following Ukraine, the largest importers were Poland and the UK. Nearly half (48%) of the weapons imported by European states originated in the US, followed by Germany (7.1%) and France (6.2%).
SIPRI researcher Katarina Djokic offered this assessment: “While European companies are ramping up production and the European Union’s new investment support program for the defense industry has spurred some intra-European orders, European states continued to import American weapons during the 2021–2025 period, particularly in the categories of combat aircraft and long-range air defense systems.” In contrast, arms procurement in other regions—Asia and Oceania, the Middle East, and Africa—declined over the last five years.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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