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Europe loses LNG cargoes to Asia as Middle East conflict tightens supply

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Europe is losing liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to Asia as conflict in the Middle East disrupts Qatari facilities and drives prices higher.

Italy, Poland and Belgium are scrambling to secure alternative supply sources in an increasingly competitive market.

European buyers are being priced out of the global LNG market as Asian importers outbid them for limited cargoes.

Shipping data show multiple tankers altering course mid-voyage, with roughly a dozen Atlantic shipments already redirected.

The competition for LNG is escalating as the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transit chokepoint responsible for around 20% of global LNG supply, remains closed by Iranian authorities in retaliation for missile strikes by the US and Israel about a month ago.

Taiwan says it has 11 days of gas reserves

Supply disruptions intensified after attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facilities forced the world’s largest LNG producer to declare force majeure on contracts with Belgium, Italy and Poland on Tuesday.

Europe accounts for only a small share of supply flowing through this bottleneck and is largely focused on managing rising prices and easing LNG shortages in several countries. By contrast, Asian economies rely on the Strait of Hormuz for roughly 80% of their energy imports.

Taiwan, a key semiconductor producer, said on Tuesday, March 24, that it has enough gas reserves to last 11 days.

According to data from intelligence firm Kpler, the number of LNG tankers changing course has continued to rise since the outbreak of war in the Middle East on February 28. The latest Qatari cargoes are expected to reach the UK and Italy by March 27.

Laura Page, head of LNG and gas at Kpler, said in remarks to Euronews:

“We have 11 LNG cargoes confirmed to have been redirected from Europe to Asia, as well as two redirected from Europe to Egypt and one from Europe to Türkiye.”

The disruption has pushed global LNG prices higher at a critical moment as Europe enters its gas storage replenishment season, raising concerns that Atlantic supply will tighten further.

Page said: “Fortunately, the winter heating season is ending, so gas demand will decline. However, the crisis poses significant risks for Europe during the upcoming storage refill season and could leave the region vulnerable next winter if storage levels fail to recover sufficiently.”

Gas benchmark rises above 60 euros intraday

Europe’s benchmark wholesale gas price, the Dutch TTF, closed Tuesday at around 53–54 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), after rising above 60 euros earlier in the day.

Although slightly below midweek peaks, prices remain well above pre-conflict levels.

Asian buyers are currently paying about $1–3 per MMBtu more than their European counterparts for spot LNG, based on the JKM benchmark. This relatively small but decisive premium is reshaping global trade flows.

Higher returns are incentivising traders to divert flexible cargoes eastward, where shipping economics are more attractive, leaving Europe competing for constrained LNG supply.

Italy turns to Algeria for diversification

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni visited Algeria on Wednesday as Rome seeks to offset disrupted Qatari supplies, which account for roughly 30% of the country’s annual gas demand.

A study published Tuesday by think tank ECCO suggests Italy could replace Qatari LNG within a year through renewable energy expansion and energy efficiency measures.

ECCO argues that installing 10 gigawatts of new renewable capacity annually could reduce gas consumption by 2.5 billion cubic metres, equivalent to 40% of Qatari imports.

Additional measures include improving energy efficiency across residential, commercial and industrial sectors, as well as electrification. However, these steps would still rely on Algerian gas to bridge the remaining gap.

The study states: “For the remaining 15%, equivalent to 1 billion cubic metres annually out of a total 6.4 billion cubic metres, the government could utilise existing gas infrastructure, particularly pipelines linking Italy to Algeria.”

Belgium and Poland expect limited impact

In Belgium, supply disruptions from Qatar are expected to be relatively modest, affecting around 8% of LNG imports via the Zeebrugge terminal.

The country’s transmission operator Fluxys said it is actively seeking alternative supplies and expects shipments from the US, Nigeria and Russia.

However, imports from Russia are scheduled to be fully phased out by 2027, narrowing long-term options.

Poland’s oil and gas company Orlen said the suspension of some LNG production by QatarEnergy, which accounts for less than 10% of its demand in 2025, does not pose a threat to national gas security.

Orlen highlighted its diversified supply portfolio and flexible trading tools as key mechanisms for offsetting potential supply losses.

US issues trade ultimatum to EU

Meanwhile, the US has renewed pressure on the European Union, leveraging rising energy prices and potential supply shortages.

US Ambassador to Europe Andrew Puzder warned that if EU lawmakers reject the terms of the EU-US trade agreement due to be voted on today, the bloc could risk losing “favourable access” to LNG supplies from across the Atlantic.

Puzder told the Financial Times:

“If they don’t accept the deal, I don’t know what will happen on energy. I think the US will want to continue doing business with Europe, but the terms may not be as favourable. The environment certainly won’t be as favourable. And there are other buyers in the market.”

Under the agreement expected to be signed soon, the EU27 is projected to purchase around $250 billion annually in oil, gas and nuclear energy from the US by 2028, with total purchases reaching approximately $750 billion.

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Diplomacy

Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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