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Modi’s manifesto says little about his economic policies

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unveiled its election manifesto on 14 April, just four days before the country’s 970 million voters go to the polls in the world’s biggest and longest election.

Critics say the document says “surprisingly little” about what economic policies the BJP will pursue if it wins another term in power as expected, apart from a promise to make India the world’s third largest economy with an annual gross domestic product of $3.7 trillion.

To achieve this, India would have to overtake Japan, with a GDP of $4.2 trillion, and Germany, with $4.5 trillion. But economists say this may not be too difficult a target, given that India has overtaken the UK, France, Italy and Brazil in recent years. However, the BJP manifesto gives no details of how Modi will achieve this, or how he will ensure that the country meets its target of making India a developed nation by 2047.

India’s economy grew 8.4% in the October-December quarter and 7.6% in the full fiscal year to March. This is an impressive growth rate by any standard.

The BJP manifesto, while highlighting the success of the Modi government in bringing India from the brink of economic fragility to global prominence, states that the next cabinet will stick to the path of fiscal consolidation, which should be reassuring to investors.

But while the document paints a rosy picture of the Modi government’s economic achievements to date, it is short on details of how the next cabinet will tackle the dangerous macroeconomic challenges facing the economy. These include worsening youth unemployment, sticky inflation, widening income and wealth inequality, and the squeeze on informal enterprises, which employ more than four-fifths of the country’s workforce.

Despite falling fertility rates and one of the lowest labour force participation rates in the world, youth unemployment continues to rise steadily. Even among young people with at least a secondary education, almost one in five is unemployed. At the same time, educated youth account for two-thirds of all unemployed youth, according to research by the International Labour Organization and the Indian Institute of Human Development.

Experts say that expanding production will not be enough to solve the problem. The sector, which accounted for between 12% and 14% of employment in the last 10 years of Modi’s rule, has grown very little despite increased import barriers and generous subsidies to select large companies to expand local production.

Household consumption is estimated to have grown by around 3% in the last financial year, which if true would be the smallest increase since 2002 outside the COVID pandemic.

The BJP manifesto is silent on how the party will address stagnant demand. Without faster demand growth, there will be no pick-up in private capital investment, which in turn will limit GDP growth.

Some local media expected the BJP to unveil plans for major reforms of archaic land and labour regulations. But infrastructure projects were announced, including the promise of more high-speed rail lines.

The document therefore does not appear to set out the BJP’s plan to address India’s long-term economic challenges.

Opposition campaigned ‘for the poor’

The Indian National Congress, the main opposition party, campaigned on a ‘pro-poor’ platform, promising to give 100,000 rupees ($1,200) a year to the country’s poorest households and extend crop price guarantees to farmers.

Congress is also proposing to conduct surveys to prepare for wealth redistribution measures.

According to the World Inequality Lab, the top 1% of Indians receive about 23% of the country’s annual national income and own 40% of the country’s wealth. Critics of the government, such as former Reserve Bank of India governor Duvvuri Subbarao, say India will remain a poor country even as it becomes the world’s third largest economy.

In terms of per capita income, India ranks 143rd in the world. This underscores the reality of growing inequality and shows that simply wanting to increase GDP further will not be enough to ensure the country’s economic health.

Similarly, spending more on repairing and upgrading basic infrastructure means spending less on improving and expanding health care and public education. The lack of adequate public services pushes all Indian households into expensive private sector options. As a result, many have little money left to spend on discretionary goods and services.

Despite this, the ruling party remains popular with voters and, judging by the polls, there seems little doubt that Modi will win support for a third term. However, experts are concerned that the Modi government, which is expected to be re-elected, lacks a coherent economic strategy to tackle the country’s key macroeconomic problems.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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