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Scenes from Europe as it prepares for war

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As NATO countries in Europe prepare for a possible war with Russia, the armament dimension and ‘civil defence’ proposals go hand in hand.

There seems to be a continent-wide expectation. Germany, for example, is developing an app to help people find the nearest shelter in the event of an attack.

But when it comes to preparing for war, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries, which are supposed to be the ‘frontline’, are leading the way.

They are already stockpiling grain, testing payment systems and making sure households can store emergency rations.

Finland asks its citizens: Can you survive 72 hours?

At 9am on 18 November, Finland launched a new website to show people how to survive for 72 hours in the event of a crisis or conflict.

A comprehensive online guide called “Preparing for Incidents and Crises” offers residents information and advice on everything from water cuts to forest fires, internet outages or “long-term crises … such as military conflicts”.

A separate website, 72tuntia.fi, asks Finns ‘Can you survive 72 hours in a series of crisis situations?’ and invites citizens to put their skills and equipment to the test.

According to The Guardian, the website urges people to “strengthen psychological resilience, increase personal cyber security and protect themselves indoors” (“Close doors and windows. Turn on the radio. Wait calmly for instructions”).

Emergency supplies: Power bank, flashlight, iodine tablets

According to Bloomberg, Finland’s ’emergency kit’ includes the following Bottled water, non-perishable food, clean buckets, pet food, toilet paper, power bank, battery-powered radio, flashlight, battery, cash, fire blanket, camping stove and fuel, plastic bag, tape, matches, hand sanitiser, wet wipes, first aid kit, medicine, iodine tablets.

On the same Monday, Sweden also began mailing updated leaflets to 5.2 million households, calling for ‘increased attention to war preparedness’.

The foreword to the Swedish leaflet reads: ‘We live in uncertain times. Armed conflicts are taking place in our part of the world. Terrorism, cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns are used to weaken and influence us.

The leaflet, which is also available in English, adds that collective resistance is essential and that if Sweden is attacked, ‘everyone must do their part to defend Sweden’s independence and our democracy… you are part of Sweden’s general emergency preparedness’.

Poor and rich in separate neighbourhoods, even in war preparation

But ‘war preparedness’ is not the same in every neighbourhood. Fatuma Mohamed, a health communicator in Stockholm, told the Guardian that many families in poorer areas don’t have food for the day, let alone a stockpile, while others are trying to find out where local shelters are.

Mohamed said she would like to see more face-to-face information given to people, rather than just leaflets.

Norway’s Civil Defence Directorate, DSB, has distributed a similar booklet to 2.6 million households in the country. We live in an increasingly turbulent world” affected by climate change, digital threats and “in the worst case, acts of war”, the leaflet says.

The Norwegian leaflet, for example, advises people to stock up on at least a week’s worth of non-perishable food, such as ‘crispbread, tinned pulses and beans, tinned sandwich spreads, energy bars, dried fruit, chocolate, honey, biscuits and nuts’.

Call to stock up on essentials

The DSB is also advising its citizens to stock up on essential medicines, including iodine tablets, in case of a nuclear accident and, like Sweden, to have multiple bank cards and cash at home.

Governments, central banks and businesses in the region are taking the lead in stockpiling emergency grain and medical supplies, making the financial system more resilient and encouraging households to store canned food and iodine tablets.

There’s also a lot of coverage of this 72-hour preparedness in Finland, on TV, on social media, in newspapers; I’ve even heard that they’re teaching children about it in schools. I mean, it’s getting a lot of media coverage right now, and it’s definitely changed my mindset,’ Lotta-Sofia Saahko, a 31-year-old writer from the southern Finnish town of Valkeakoski, told Bloomberg.

Saahko, who lives with his grandfather, said they have two five-litre water canisters and have started shopping to make sure they have enough canned pea soup and crispbread.

Scandinavian countries start hoarding grain

The scenarios include not only war, but also natural disasters due to climate change, energy disruptions and international cyber-attacks.

The Swedish authorities also give advice on how to evacuate, how to stop bleeding and how to talk to children about war.

Norway is reactivating its grain reserves and increasing its storage capacity.

Norway said in June that the country was stockpiling grain in preparation for the ‘unthinkable’, while Sweden plans to rebuild its reserves with seeds and fertiliser.

Miika Ilomaki, chief preparedness expert at the National Emergency Supply Agency, said officials and researchers had travelled to Finland for know-how.

Lithuania’s largest retailer, Maxima, has a plan to keep its supermarkets open in the event of a communications blackout, while its warehouses also have a list of essential goods to stockpile.

The country is also actively seeking to receive emergency medical supplies. Last year, it received the green light from the European Commission for a warehouse as part of a plan to have 22 stockpiles in 16 EU member states.

The Polish parliament this month passed a law requiring local authorities to have enough food and water to last 72 hours. Other measures include building an evacuation system and shelters.

In Denmark, the government set up a crisis ministry this year and began advising people to stockpile food and water for 72 hours.

Financial institutions working on war-proof payment systems

But time is running out for the financial system. The central bank is pioneering a system that, from next year, will allow Danes to continue using cards to buy food and medicine for a week in the event of a power cut or internet crash.

Ulrik Nordgaard, deputy governor of the central bank, said they were working with retailers, banks and payment companies to extend the time people can make offline card transactions from three to seven days.

“Retailers and banks have agreed to share equally the costs of any fraudulent activity, and other countries have shown interest in using this as a model,” Nordgaard said.

In an interview in Copenhagen last week, Nordgaard said the idea was to “prepare for the worst-case scenario”.

EU steps up defence efforts with UK

European officials say the continent is entering a new reality. More than three decades after the end of the Cold War and the threat of nuclear attack, the European Union is returning to its roots as an organisation born out of conflict to promote peace and security, Bloomberg reports.

The EU is trying to speed up talks with the UK on a new defence and security treaty as U.S. support for Ukraine wanes with the re-election of Donald Trump and the prospect of a peace deal that could “embolden Russia”.

Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, said on 14 November: “We are facing geopolitical tensions that show no signs of abating and we must be ready for any eventuality. All this makes it more important than ever that our Union is prepared for this new and more uncertain future.”

EUROPE

Germany considers sending troops to Ukraine

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German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced during the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels that German troops might be deployed to Ukraine if a sustainable ceasefire is achieved. Baerbock emphasized that the presence of foreign troops along the border could serve as a significant security guarantee for Ukraine in addition to its potential NATO membership, according to Die Welt newspaper.

She further underscored that any initiative aimed at resolving the conflict would receive support from all parties within the German government.

In a related statement, European Union (EU) Foreign Affairs Representative Kaja Kallas indicated that European armies could be sent to Ukraine after a ceasefire agreement. Kallas noted that troops might come from countries such as France, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

At the end of November, the French newspaper Le Monde reported ongoing EU discussions about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna stressed that the EU must prepare for such a scenario, particularly if US President-elect Donald Trump leads ceasefire negotiations.

The idea of deploying Western troops to Ukraine was initially raised earlier this year by French President Emmanuel Macron. He stipulated that any deployment would require substantial progress on the front lines and an official request from the Ukrainian government in Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Russia has responded critically to these proposals. The Foreign Intelligence Organisation (SVR) claimed that Western powers are plotting to freeze the conflict in Ukraine before launching an invasion under the guise of a “peacekeeping” mission. The SVR alleged that regions of Ukraine have already been “divided” among potential occupying forces, with Romania taking the Black Sea coast, Poland the western regions, Germany the central and eastern areas, and Britain the northern regions, including Kyiv.

The SVR suggested that a total of 100,000 “peacekeepers” could be deployed to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin asserted in June that Western military trainers and advisers are already present in Ukraine, signaling the West’s growing involvement in the conflict.

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French government on the verge of collapse over budget dispute

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The French government, led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier, is on the brink of collapse due to a budget dispute with parliamentary factions, particularly Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) party.

RN leader Le Pen stated on Sunday that Prime Minister Barnier must make further concessions on the budget to avoid a no-confidence vote that could bring down his government. She gave Barnier a deadline of Monday, December 2, to meet the RN’s budget demands, warning that failure to do so could prompt her party to support a motion of censure.

In an interview with La Tribune, Le Pen said, “A vote against the government is not inevitable. All Barnier has to do is agree to negotiate.” However, she added that despite two weeks of negotiations, progress had been unsatisfactory.

Barnier had already abandoned a planned increase in electricity taxes last week, but the RN demands further changes, including increased pensions in line with inflation. The RN also seeks the cancellation of proposed cuts to drug reimbursements and is dissatisfied with the government’s fuel tax hikes.

Among other demands, the RN is pushing for a reduction in France’s contribution to the European Union budget.

The crisis could escalate if Barnier is forced to use his constitutional powers to push through the social security financing bill, which would likely trigger a motion of censure from the left-wing opposition.

Barnier’s survival depends on the RN’s abstention during the vote in the divided National Assembly. If the RN does not abstain, Barnier’s government and the budget bill could fall, potentially plunging France into a political crisis.

Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin emphasized on Sunday that the government respected the compromise reached with lawmakers on the social security bill. However, RN leader Jordan Bardella has made it clear that no further changes would be accepted.

Bardella accused the government of stubbornness and factionalism, which he believes are putting an end to negotiations and risking a no-confidence vote. He warned that the RN would launch a motion of censure if Barnier made no concessions by 14:00 today.

As the standoff continued, Saint-Martin and Finance Minister Antoine Armand cautioned that a no-confidence vote would have severe consequences for French taxpayers and pensioners. Armand told Le Journal du Dimanche that such a vote would force the government to pass an emergency law to ensure a budget could be drawn up at the start of the new year.

However, this law would only extend this year’s spending limits and tax provisions, meaning pensions would be cut and tax thresholds would increase for 17 million people, as they cannot be adjusted for inflation.

The growing uncertainty surrounding France’s budget and the future of its government has contributed to rising pressure on French debt and equities, with the risk premium on government bonds reaching its highest level in over 12 years last week.

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European Central Bank prepares to abandon crisis-era strategy

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The European Central Bank (ECB) is poised to shift away from a key inflation-control strategy, signaling a move from its reliance on analyzing current economic data to inform interest rate adjustments.

Philip Lane, the ECB’s chief economist, revealed in an interview on the Financial Times’ Economic Programme with Soumaya Keynes that future monetary policy decisions should eventually focus on anticipating future risks rather than relying on backward-looking metrics. Lane stated, “When the central bank is confident that inflation will reach its medium-term target of 2 percent, monetary policy should be driven by the risks ahead.”

Previously, the ECB and other central banks prioritized two-year inflation forecasts when determining interest rates. However, their inability to predict the prolonged price increases in energy markets—driven by supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine—undermined their credibility.

Confronted with decades-high inflation, central banks, including the ECB, began placing greater emphasis on short-term data such as monthly inflation rates, survey data, and quarterly GDP figures rather than long-term projections.

Inflation in the eurozone has significantly declined, dropping from a peak of 10.6 percent in October 2022 to 2.3 percent in November 2023. Despite this progress, short-term data continues to overshadow the central bank’s medium-term inflation forecasts.

Lane emphasized, “While inflation has moved closer to the ECB’s 2 percent target, there is still some way to go.” He noted that services inflation is expected to decline further, aligning with the broader disinflation process.

Lane highlighted the importance of adopting a forward-looking monetary policy once inflation stabilizes, stating: “Once the disinflation process is complete, monetary policy should essentially be forward-looking, scanning the horizon for new shocks that could lead to either more or less inflationary pressures.”

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