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Aleppo’s echo in Europe

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The offensive in Aleppo by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the rapid retreat of the Syrian army are likely to have many consequences. Among them is the alignment of the “rebellious” countries within the EU.

The “rebellion” emerged last summer. Eight EU countries, led by Austria and Italy, sent a letter to EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell calling for a new chapter in relations with Syria.

Calling on the EU to “review and assess” its approach to Syria, they proposed the creation of an EU-Syria envoy tasked with re-establishing contact with the Syrian ambassador in Brussels and liaising with both Syrian and regional actors.

Other proposals included a strategic dialogue with Arab countries, developing the EU’s approach to Syria’s reconstruction, addressing the “unintended negative effects” of EU sanctions and creating conditions for refugees to return to Syria.

“After 13 years of war, we have to admit that our Syria policy has not improved much,” said Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg at the time.

The fact that Damascus had survived with the help of Iran and Russia and that the Syrian opposition had been dismembered or driven into exile, ‘no matter how painful’, could no longer be ignored by the European Union, the Austrian minister argued.

The new eight-nation peace initiative was based on the abandonment of the EU’s famous ‘three no’s’ and the red line of ‘no peace with the regime of Bashar al-Assad’.

Indeed, Italy decided last July to send an ambassador to Damascus, the first G7 country to do so in years.

In October, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni told the Italian Senate that the EU should review its strategy on Syria and work with all stakeholders to create the conditions for the voluntary, safe and sustainable return of Syrian refugees to their homes.

Later in November, the Syrian consulate in Italy, which had suspended its activities in 2012 on the basis of ‘reciprocity’, announced the resumption of its services to Syrian nationals in the country.

In October, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer cited the 200,000 people who had crossed from Lebanon into Syria during the ongoing Israeli occupation and attacks as proof that Syria was safe, saying that ‘Syria is now certified as safe in many areas’.

Things went as expected. The EU announced that it would appoint a special envoy to evaluate its Syria policy. The head of the EU delegation to Syria, Michael Ohnmacht, had recently addressed the public in a video filmed in the capital, Damascus.

A spokesperson for the EU foreign ministry told DW that the appointment of a special envoy was being considered, but that it would not mean a change in the EU’s current policy towards Syria. The envoy would report directly to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW: “It has been clear for some time that Europe does not have a meaningful Syria strategy. We have fallen into the trap of saying that any engagement means legitimizing the regime, when in many ways it could be seen as a way to help improve the desperate situation on the ground,” Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Council on Foreign Relations, told DW.

Barnes-Dacey argued that if the EU continues to stay out of Syria altogether, it ‘cannot do much to help Syrians struggling to survive under the regime’s boot and cannot hope to compete with countries like Russia and Iran’.

By a strange coincidence, on 26 November, the day before the jihadist assault on Aleppo began, EUObserver published an article by Beder Camus. Mr Camus, who is based in Istanbul, is a member of the ‘opposition’ Syrian National Council and chairman of the Syrian Negotiations Commission.

In a direct appeal to EU countries calling for a change in Syria policy, he argued that without progress in implementing UN Security Council Resolution 2254 and without a political solution, any step towards normalisation with Damascus would ‘undermine the prospects for peace, stability and prosperity’.

“By all estimates, it is clear that Syria is not a safe place for refugees to return to,” the “opposition” leader wrote, adding that according to his own estimates, the Damascus regime currently controls “only about 50 per cent of Syria’s territory and population”, while a significant part of the country continues to suffer from ongoing violence and dire living conditions.

“There are many significant political risks in engaging with the Assad regime, not least that any investment and reconstruction will directly benefit the Assad regime and its network of corrupt officials, businessmen and military personnel,” Camus said.

The HTS attack certainly worked in Europe. After the fall of Aleppo, the country’s second largest city and commercial heartland, one would have expected a change in attitude towards the Assad regime, which controls most of Syria and has made it a safe country.

Cecilia Piccioni, Italy’s ambassador to Moscow, met with Russian foreign ministry officials over Russia’s alleged attack on an Italian charity in Aleppo.

For his part, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said on Sunday that Italy was “closely following developments in the crisis and that the Italian embassy in Damascus is in constant contact with citizens (mostly dual nationals) to facilitate their safe evacuation from the city”.

Tajani also said in X that the Russian attack had caused severe damage to the Terra Sancta College and called on all warring parties in Syria to “protect civilians”.

In a later statement, the foreign minister warned of a new migration crisis with the resumption of hostilities in Syria.

“Lebanon is already hosting one million Syrian refugees. There is a risk that a protracted civil war could lead to a new migration crisis,” Tajani said.

Speaking to journalists on the sidelines of an international humanitarian conference on Gaza in Cairo on Monday, Antonio Tajani warned that the conflict could drag on.

Tajani also argued that the conflict, which directly affects Lebanon, could also affect Europe.

It seems that the Aleppo offensive by the jihadists and their foreign backers will also succeed – at least for a while – in silencing the fractured voices in Europe.

Diplomacy

CSTO strips Armenia of voting rights over two-year budget debt

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Members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have stripped Armenia of its voting rights and its ability to appoint representatives to official positions due to a two-year debt to the organization’s budget.

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “This decision was taken based on the organization’s charter due to Armenia’s failure to fulfil its obligations for several years.”

Prior to the CSTO leaders’ summit in Moscow, Peskov had stated that member states would “react” to the Caucasus country’s non-participation in the organization’s activities.

Ahead of the Moscow summit, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said his country’s “interest has run out” regarding the CSTO. Through his press spokesperson, he announced that he would travel to Türkiye on 11 November to attend the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP31) instead of going to Russia.

The CSTO leaders’ meeting was held with the participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin alongside the leaders of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

The leaders jointly took the decision to revoke Armenia’s voting rights.

At the conclusion of the meeting, the participants also signed a joint declaration.

The declaration stated: “We confirm our unconditional commitment to the goals set out in the CSTO treaty and charter towards creating favourable and stable conditions for the comprehensive development of member states.”

Pashinyan had frozen Yerevan’s de facto participation in the CSTO in February 2024, citing the organization’s failure to aid the Armenian side during the armed clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023.

Having referred to the CSTO as a “soap-bubble alliance” since that time, Pashinyan accused the organization’s members of “planning war” together with Baku. He stated that Armenia would not return to active work within the alliance at least “over the next five years”, adding that he would welcome it if the country were expelled from membership.

Relations between Armenia and Russia grew tense once again in the spring of 2026, after Yerevan moved closer to the European Union (EU) and the Kremlin responded with a trade war.

In May, Pashinyan refused to travel to Moscow to attend the Victory Day parade and declared that he did not support Russia on the Ukraine issue.

In response, Putin called on Yerevan to determine its foreign policy course through a referendum, advising Armenian authorities not to forget the fate of Ukraine.

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US urges Russia to draft proposals for new European security pact

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The US administration has reportedly called on Russia to submit proposals for a prospective security treaty with Europe that would include measures to ease tensions between European nations and Moscow.

According to a report by news site Axios citing sources familiar with the matter, the US side conveyed the request during trilateral negotiations held in Abu Dhabi.

During the talks, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner suggested that the Russian delegation prepare a fresh proposal outlining its security concerns and demands.

The US delegation reportedly asked that this proposal clarify what kind of “symmetrical steps” Moscow is prepared to take to de-escalate tensions and “provide non-aggression guarantees to Europe”.

Another source familiar with the White House’s approach said the Trump administration aims to run the processes for a new European security architecture and a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine simultaneously.

Under this plan, the actual implementation of the security understandings would take effect only after the signing of an accord ending the conflict in Ukraine.

Assessing the approach to the process, the source said: “[Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy will not agree to any compromise without knowing what will happen next regarding security guarantees. Putin also wants to see the exact same picture clearly. This is precisely why the security portfolio is so decisive.”

The same official noted that the US will not reach a security agreement with Russia without the support of Europe and Ukraine, adding that Washington will not grant Moscow veto power over European security decisions.

Vladimir Medinsky, aide to the Russian president and head of the delegation in the Ukraine negotiations, previously stated that the fundamental objective was building a comprehensive new security system in Europe.

Medinsky noted that the structure in question must take on the character of “a fair, new, modern Yalta and Potsdam that carries the spirit of Helsinki 1975 and responds to contemporary realities”.

The Russian official argued that if such a system were established, peace lasting for decades, or even centuries, could be secured in Europe.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also announced that Moscow possesses its own position paper on how a new security architecture in Eurasia should take shape.

Lavrov stated that Russia hopes the Washington administration will “maintain its determination to pursue dialogue aimed at achieving an honest balance of interests where nobody’s security is impaired”.

Russian authorities have repeatedly stated that the country has no intention of attacking Europe.

Pointing out that they have no reason to fight NATO countries, Russian President Vladimir Putin previously said: “We have no interest whatsoever, neither geopolitical nor economic, political nor military.”

In a statement in October, Putin said Russia has no plans to attack anyone “in 2029, in 2030, or in the year 2050”.

On the other hand, Putin claimed that “all NATO countries are fighting Russia” and stated that the Russian military is currently the most combat-ready armed force in the world.

Following the contacts in Abu Dhabi, Kushner announced that he and Witkoff would travel to Moscow.

Explaining that they plan to meet Putin during the visit to discuss European participation in negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict, Kushner argued that the parties could make “far greater progress” if the Russian leader consents to such involvement.

Yury Ushakov, aide to the Russian president, stated that the US special envoys will arrive in Moscow on 12 November, with the planned meeting with the Russian president scheduled for the first half of the day.

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Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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