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Another peace rally in Berlin: is the ice breaking?

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Almost a year ago, thousands of people gathered in a rainy Berlin to protest against the German government’s involvement in the war in Ukraine.

At the time, the crisis in the Left Party was in full swing and the break with Sahra Wagenknecht and her friends had become official. When the Left Party leadership decided to stay away from the rally, the demonstration was dominated by the not-yet-formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) and its charismatic leader Sahra Wagenknecht.

This time, at the rally on 3 October, it was not quite so. Under the slogan “No more war – lay down your arms”, the demonstration at the Victory Column attracted not “thousands” but “tens of thousands” (the organisers spoke of at least 40,000 people). Wagenknecht was, of course, the most popular speaker, but this time the leader of the Left Party, Gesine Lötzsch, was also present. Organisations of Turkish origin also participated more intensively this time.

The date also seemed to have been specially chosen. 3 October is the ‘Day of German Unity’, the day when Germany was ‘united’, but in reality the German Democratic Republic was swallowed by the Federal Republic. In the 1990s there were fears that a reunited Germany would seek war, as it had done at least twice before in history. Berlin’s ‘turning point’ with the war in Ukraine seemed to confirm these fears.

Before the speeches began, rapper S. Castro summed up the main idea of the rally by singing a song with the lyrics ‘In Kiev we ignore the Hitler salute because our minds are banned’.

At the start of the rally, organiser Reiner Braun, a veteran of the German peace movement, called for an ‘end to the killing’ in Gaza and Lebanon.

Perhaps the most interesting moment of the rally came when SPD member of parliament Ralf Stegner took to the podium. The SPD is the largest member of Germany’s grand coalition and is seen as the party most responsible for the war policy in Ukraine. Although Stegner is considered a ‘dissident’ within his own party (which was the reason for his appearance at the rally), when he spoke about ‘Russia’s war of aggression’ and ‘Ukraine’s right to self-defence’ he was met with a storm of whistles and boos. Stegner claimed that Germany’s aid, including military aid, was ‘humanitarian’, but his speech was briefly interrupted by whistling. At this point the organising committee intervened and asked the crowd to let Stegner continue. Amid the jeers, the SPD politician claimed that his party remained part of the peace movement and called for a diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine.

Stegner could be said to be torn between two mosques. Before the rally, when it was announced that he would also be a speaker, he was attacked by the Greens and the SPD. The SPD politician had said the day before that the issue of peace ‘should not be left to parties like the BSW and AfD’.

Another surprise at the rally was the Bavarian conservative politician Peter Gauweiler. Speaking from the podium, Gauweiler of the CSU said it was the first time in his life he had attended a peace rally. In a speech that at times drew laughter from the crowd, the CSU politician also greeted his ‘old friend Oskar Lafontaine’ and argued that when it comes to arms deliveries to Kiev, ‘you can’t put out a fire with petrol’.

The much-anticipated Wagenknecht, on the other hand, spoke with the confidence of someone who has become a leader of the peace movement. He said he had ‘great respect’ for the booing SPD Stegner, but stressed that the SPD leadership, Olaf Scholz and Boris Pistorius were no longer part of the peace movement. The Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock was ‘a security risk for Germany’ and people like her were dragging the country further and further into war.

Anyone who started a war for them was guilty, she said, adding: ‘But please, no double standards. If Putin is a criminal, what about the US politicians who have been responsible for so many wars in recent years? The BSW leader was also almost alone in criticising the planned deployment of American intermediate-range missiles in Germany.

At the end of her speech, Wagenknecht quoted the author Erich Maria Remarque: “I always thought that everyone was against the war, until I learned that there are those who are for it, especially those who don’t have to go”.

Wagenknecht’s quote refers to politicians from the ‘traffic light’ coalition, such as the Greens’ Anton Hofreiter and the FDP’s Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann. Wagenknecht points out that these are ‘warmongers’ who should form a battalion and prove themselves in battle.

And then the thicker and thicker strands of German politics are hit. Last year I wrote about the caution on the Palestinian issue. This year there were plenty of Palestinian and Lebanese flags in the crowd (and the odd Russian flag), but there was little difference in the political context.

On the Middle East, for example, Wagenknecht said it was ‘inhuman to applaud when Iran fires rockets at Israel’. However, he said the debate lacked empathy for the ‘Palestinian victims’, adding: “Terrorists cannot be stopped by terror and war”.

Some other BSW politicians, calling for a halt to German arms supplies to Israel and an immediate ceasefire, also feel the need to begin their remarks with ‘Hamas terror’.

For Germany, Israel is an absolute reality whose existence cannot even be questioned, justified by its role in the Holocaust. Israel exists as the child of German guilt, to the extent that for a German the possible destruction of Israel is more important than the possible destruction of Germany. In the words of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, support for Israel is declared to be Germany’s state mission, the wisdom of the German state, its raison d’être.

However, it should not be assumed that the participants in the rally were all on the same wavelength. For example, according to Deutsche Welle, ‘some isolated members of the demonstration’ carried banners accusing NATO of genocide in eastern Ukraine and Israel of genocide in Gaza. As the heavyweights left the rally after Wagenknecht and the crowd began to disperse, Salah Abdel-Shafi, the Palestinian Authority’s envoy to Vienna, took to the podium and said that Israel had been committing genocide for a year and that the world had remained silent.

Then Iris Hefets of Jewish Voice for a Just Peace in the Middle East, a supporter of the BDS movement, and activist Nadija Samour spoke together. Hefets said Israel was committing genocide in Palestine with the support of Germany.

Nevertheless, it can be said that the peace movement in Germany is gaining momentum and has shaken off some of its dead wood. Although no major cracks have yet appeared in mainstream politics, the politicians we spoke to believe that the outcome of September’s state elections in East Germany could change Berlin. The 3 October rally was well attended, and the fact that some people from the Left Party, even the SPD and CSU, joined the demonstration may be a small indication of this.

The prospect of early federal elections also depends in part on this. Before the budget for 2025 is presented to the Bundestag in November, we will know whether the death knell has been sounded for the SPD-Green coalition, which was soundly defeated in the state elections. Nevertheless, it is clear that Germany is entering a period in which at least ‘some things will change’ in order to ‘keep things the same’.

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China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans

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The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.

In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.

According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.

The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.

At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.

“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”

The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.

The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.

European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.

Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.

A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”

Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”

Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.

In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.

The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.

A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.

Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.

Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.

The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.

“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”

Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.

Shagina said:

“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”

In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.

Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.

“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.

Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.

A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”

“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.

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Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain

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European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.

The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.

Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.

The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.

Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.

Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”

The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.

Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.

In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.

The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.

Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”

Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.

Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”

The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.

For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.

The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.

Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.

The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.

Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.

The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.

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SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine

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SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.

In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:

“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”

In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.

The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.

SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”

When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.

Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.

Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.

At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”

The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.

A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.

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