Diplomacy
AUKUS accelerates expansion plans
The United States, Australia and the United Kingdom are rushing to expand the trilateral AUKUS defence partnership to include more allied countries ahead of elections likely to be held in all three countries in the next 14 months.
A senior diplomat involved in the talks told POLITICO that Japan and Canada are lined up to join the so-called Pillar 2 of the AUKUS agreement in late 2024 or early 2025, where the participants will sign up to extensive military technology cooperation.
There are concerns in Washington, London and Canberra that Donald Trump could withdraw or shelve the AUKUS agreement if he wins the presidential election in November.
Deepening cooperation under the second pillar
The AUKUS agreement was first announced in September 2021. The first part of the agreement, Pillar 1, involves the US and UK helping Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines.
Pillar 2 of the agreement allows the three countries to enter into agreements to develop advanced military technology in areas such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles and quantum technologies.
It has always been envisaged that the second pillar could be extended to other US allies; Japan, Canada, New Zealand and South Korea are among those who have expressed a willingness to join the agreement.
Elections in Pact countries accelerate process
A second diplomat involved in the talks said that US President Joe Biden’s administration was now “really pushing hard to get some things done now on the second pillar before the US elections in November, when Trump could retake the White House”.
“The president and his partners have made clear that we will look for opportunities to engage with other allies and close partners as our work on Pillar 2 moves forward,” a White House official told POLITICO.
Although he has not yet spoken publicly about the AUKUS deal, Trump ramped up his ‘America First’ rhetoric during the election campaign, fuelling expectations that he could adopt a more ‘isolationist’ foreign policy stance.
The UK will hold a general election later this year, while Australia will go to the polls in May 2025.
If Trump is elected, Western leaders may ask, ‘What the hell are we going to do now?’
“The return of American isolationism is a risk for the Indo-Pacific,” one diplomat told POLITICO, adding that if Trump wins, there will be a moment when Western leaders will call each other and ask, “What the hell are we going to do now?
“If Pillar 2 fails, then AUCUS will also fail, because we could have only done one submarine deal, even if it was a very large submarine deal. We are very confident that we will have some of the Pillar 2 deals done by the end of this year,” the officials said.
A MoD official said there was ‘momentum to get Pillar 2 done as soon as possible’ and that there were ‘ongoing discussions about what Pillar 2 will look like’.
It is stressed that no decision has been taken on the participation of Japan and South Korea in the pact. New Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins recently said there was ‘no guarantee’ that her country would be invited to join the second pillar of AUKUS.
Cameron and Shapps head to Australia
British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps will travel to Australia this week for talks with their Australian counterparts.
The two will also meet with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is expected to brief the public in Canberra on the nuclear submarine project amid concerns that America’s decision to cut submarine production could jeopardise the AUKUS agreement.
“We continue to explore opportunities to engage with our allies and close partners as work on AUKUS Pillar 2 progresses. Any decisions on the participation of other states in specific projects as part of the AUKUS Advanced Capability work will be taken trilaterally and announced at the appropriate time”.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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