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Bundeswehr troop figures mask severe structural imbalances

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The German Ministry of Defence has set a series of priority targets for the second half of the year. Led by Boris Pistorius (SPD), the ministerial leadership is satisfied with the government’s draft federal budget, which is scheduled for adoption by the Bundestag at the end of November.

According to a report by the newspaper Welt, the fundamental issue that officials do not openly voice in public is the necessity of converting resources allocated from tax revenues and loans into military capabilities as efficiently as possible, given that disruptions continue to occur in this area.

Regarding new infrastructure construction, the process is generally assessed to be proceeding as planned.

The objective this year is to add approximately 9,000 new bed spaces to barracks, with the initial allocations to these beds having begun in recent days.

Over the next four years, plans envisage incorporating roughly 54,000 additional beds into the system alongside new buildings.

Despite all these areas, personnel continues to be the single largest problem area in the armed forces.

In a statement issued at the beginning of the week, the ministry reported that the number of active-duty soldiers reached 186,700 as of 31 July, marking the highest level in approximately 13 years.

Although this figure falls considerably short of the ultimate target of 260,000 troops to be reached by 2035 at the latest, the ministry argues that the current figure lies “within the projected target corridor for personnel growth”.

This stems from an agreement initially reached with the Bundestag on a relatively slow trajectory of expansion. The planning in question projects an active strength of between 186,000 and 190,000 personnel by the end of the year.

The ministry projects that, “in line with general positive developments in the recruitment process, the Bundeswehr’s personnel growth will maintain its positive trajectory until the end of the year, despite the impact of seasonal fluctuations”.

However, not all observers share this assessment. In a post published on LinkedIn, the former Chief of the German Army, Lieutenant General Alfons Mais, made the following evaluations:

“Looking at these announcements, one could easily get the impression that the constitutional mission of the Bundeswehr is to employ as many people as possible. The key question is: Where does this additional strength, including personnel whose service has been extended, contribute to the defence mission? In administrative posts? In territorial defence? In the reserve elements of operational units? In closing existing personnel gaps in active units? In augmenting new capabilities aimed at NATO planning targets? In Lithuania?”

Pointing out that the issue is not merely one of quantity but of quality—namely deploying the right personnel in the right places—Mais indicates that personnel must not be stationed solely in headquarters, but in artillery battalions, naval surface units, fighter aircraft squadrons, or the electronic warfare domain.

Indeed, the ministry is also aware of the structural problems highlighted by the retired lieutenant general.

Even as politically desired record figures are made public, officials in the Bendlerblock acknowledge that the Bundeswehr’s personnel structure must be returned to a pyramid form to adopt a defence posture suitable for potential crises and wartime situations.

In ministry corridors, there is talk that the military in its current structure has “accumulated too much fat” and that its administrative middle has grown cumbersome.

In the pyramid model considered ideal for the armed forces, generals and staff officers form the apex, while junior enlisted personnel and privates constitute the broad base; officers and non-commissioned officers occupy the space between these two tiers.

A large base combined with a small number of command positions guarantees both a young and physically resilient force and the steady advancement of the most capable personnel to higher ranks through continuous selection.

This model also provides cost efficiency and delivers high mobilisation capacity through personnel who transition into the reserves upon completing their service.

Today, however, the Bundeswehr possesses not only a bloated upper echelon but also a disproportionately broad middle tier, resulting in a cumbersome institutional torso.

The ranks of young enlisted personnel remain insufficient, while older officers are present in surplus. A major who lacks sufficient troops to command produces no military added value; moreover, the prolonged retention of senior personnel prevents the promotion of younger soldiers.

Consequently, defence expenditures are absorbed by high salaries for mid- and senior-level staff rather than being channelled into combat strength, equipment, or the next generation of personnel.

Despite the ministry’s recognition of this dynamic, no concrete transformative steps have yet been taken in practice.

An ageing force with no gain in deterrence

To sustain positive personnel statistics alongside new recruitment, the Pistorius leadership is resorting to “retention measures” aimed at keeping contract and regular personnel in the armed forces beyond the conclusion of their service terms.

Since April, the minister has been sending personalised letters to non-commissioned officers and officers.

Opening with an expression of gratitude for their service, the letters state:

“Your final days in active service coincide with a period of profound upheaval. Our country and our continent face immense challenges. In this process, the Bundeswehr’s mission is becoming even more critical. Personnel growth is therefore our primary focus. This growth can only be achieved with qualified, high-performing, and above all dedicated soldiers—experienced comrades like you. Let us look at your professional future together. Your contribution matters every single day.”

The ministry defends these and similar retention measures solely on the basis of quantitative targets. According to its statement, “targeted individual advisory measures” conducted in 2025 alone prompted thousands of service members across all statuses and branches to extend their terms of service.

Yet this method resonates primarily among older regular personnel. As of the end of July 2026, the strength of regular and contract soldiers rose by approximately 3,000 compared to the previous year, reaching 174,700.

The primary driver of this increase was the rise in regular soldiers, whereas contract personnel numbers recorded a slight decline.

Although 56-year-old regular soldiers whose physical performance may be limited remain necessary due to specialised expertise, this sweeping policy slows the effort to reshape the personnel structure into a pyramid.

As the armed forces age in practice, debate continues over whether this approach converts the military into a more effective and hard-hitting force.

The ministry is also hesitant to publicly disclose the true scale of the personnel shortfall. The gap is not merely the 73,300 soldiers separating the current strength of 186,700 from the 260,000 target.

Regular personnel briefings omit the number of departures from the armed forces—namely the actual requirement for replenishment and replacement.

Over the past three years, an average of 14,000 regular and contract soldiers departed the Bundeswehr annually. According to the ministry’s response to an information request, this figure stood at roughly 14,600 in 2025, with similar numbers expected this year. Conscripts completing their term of service add to these totals.

A ministry spokesperson stated that they could not provide a five-year projection because the data fluctuates continuously and remains highly volatile. However, such an estimate is not difficult to deduce.

Following the suspension of compulsory military service in 2011, then-Defence Minister Thomas de Maiziere (CDU) began tying contract soldiers to extended service terms of 20 to 25 years under the “Personnel Structure Model 185”.

As the service terms of these personnel expire in the coming years, replacement requirements will rise substantially.

Experienced personnel planners agree that approximately 30,000 new recruits must enter the armed forces annually in the future to achieve the targeted growth.

Current figures fall far short of this requirement. The annual net personnel gain stands at only around 3,700 compared to the previous year; furthermore, this expansion risks being eroded by regular attrition rates exceeding 20%. The implementation of the new military service model is also failing to progress at the intended pace.

By the end of July, a total of 378,000 letters were dispatched under the military service questionnaire initiative, including roughly 194,000 to young men and approximately 184,000 to young women.

Roughly 96% of the men, for whom completing the questionnaire was mandatory, fulfilled their obligation. Among women, for whom participation was voluntary, the response rate remained at 4%.

Approximately 2,630 individuals who expressed interest underwent evaluation; following this process, 865 individuals were scheduled for deployment within the Bundeswehr.

This situation underpins retired Lieutenant General Mais’s scepticism toward the defence leadership’s personnel bulletins.

Mais underscored the gravity of the situation: “One cannot conceal qualitative deficits simply by cheering marginal numerical gains!”

Europe

German officials urge fighter jet alliance with Sweden and Spain

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German Defence Ministry officials have advised Berlin to form a new fighter jet partnership with Sweden and Spain rather than join an existing UK-led consortium.

Internal ministry assessment notes obtained by Politico state that a trilateral arrangement among Germany, Sweden, and Spain represents a “more advantageous and promising” approach than joining the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) run by the UK, Italy, and Japan.

The proposal outlined in the document does not yet represent a final government decision, nor does it contain any indication that German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius has approved the recommendation.

The advice was drafted after Germany’s flagship project with France to build a next-generation fighter jet collapsed in June following years of industrial infighting.

Initiated in 2017 and later joined by Spain, the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) was conceived as a showcase initiative for European defence cooperation. The partnership aimed to develop an aircraft to replace Germany’s Eurofighter fleet starting in 2040.

However, the initiative foundered on disputes over operational control and workshare between France-based Dassault and Germany-based Airbus Defence and Space. Following unsuccessful rescue attempts at the political level, Berlin withdrew from the joint fighter project this year.

UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham raised the prospect of Germany joining GCAP during an 8 October meeting in Berlin with Friedrich Merz. The two leaders agreed that officials should continue discussions.

For Berlin, the choice carries implications that reach far beyond which model its air force will fly. The decision will determine who controls future military technology, which countries secure production contracts, and whether a new European partnership can avoid the frictions that dismantled FCAS.

Ministry assessment keeps distance from UK-partnered GCAP project

The ministry assessment listed several reservations regarding the GCAP project. The report argued that the existing programme focuses on operations beyond Germany’s capability requirements, whereas Berlin needs an aircraft better suited for missions over continental Europe.

The document also noted that German manufacturers would struggle to secure a significant share of development and production work within an already established partnership.

Invoking past experiences with the Eurofighter programme, which was developed in the 1990s and entered service in the early 2000s, the document took direct aim at British defence contractor BAE Systems.

The German Defence Ministry assessment accused BAE Systems of prioritizing exports over the development interests of Germany and Italy, warning that British dominance would prove incompatible with an equal partnership.

By contrast, the document stated that the military requirements of Germany, Sweden, and Spain align closely and that their starting positions are well balanced.

The assessment proposed an industrial partnership between aerospace giant Airbus and Sweden’s Saab, while recommending that the Saab-manufactured Gripen E fighter jet serve as a technological stepping stone until the new aircraft is developed.

The German Defence Ministry declined to comment on the matter. A separate ministry note, however, recorded British efforts to integrate Germany into GCAP as an observer or participant, asking German officials to examine potential industrial roles and military requirements.

An Airbus spokesperson said the company was “generally open to cooperation”, provided that German and Spanish industry secured a “substantial and equal role” across development, production, and operational phases.

“Purely political decisions without an industrial foundation remain insufficient,” the spokesperson said, urging authorities in Berlin and Madrid to clarify the path forward swiftly.

In an interview published in Handelsblatt on Monday, Airbus defence chief Michael Schollhorn pointed to ties with Saab, noting that the two companies have always worked well together.

A Saab spokesperson also indicated that the company is receptive to broad defence cooperation, including in fighter aircraft.

Emphasizing that large-scale collaborative projects are handled at the political level and that participation decisions rest with the respective governments, the spokesperson said: “All questions regarding potential Swedish participation should be directed to the Swedish government. Saab stands ready, as always, to support Sweden’s future fighter aircraft requirements.”

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EU reopens debate on naming envoy for Ukraine talks with Putin

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The European Union has returned to the idea of appointing an envoy to hold talks on Ukraine with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Politico, this search gained fresh momentum following a visit to Russia by Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy.

During his trip, Witkoff proposed to Putin that Russia, the US, and Ukraine hold trilateral talks.

European countries, meanwhile, fear that Washington could accept terms unfavourable to Kyiv in negotiations that exclude them.

Sources speaking to Politico said the names being discussed for the envoy role include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas.

Some European diplomats believe Finnish President Alexander Stubb may be the most suitable candidate for the post.

Stubb’s good relations with Trump and Finland’s experience in dealing with Russia are cited among the factors setting him apart.

An unnamed EU diplomat described Stubb as the only European politician so far to have demonstrated senior-level leadership.

Another group of diplomats argues that Costa should lead the talks. European leaders asked Costa during last week’s EU summit in Brussels whether the time had come to speak with Putin.

Politico’s source recounted that exchange: “Costa said no, saying he would not speak to Putin right now. But if we want to play a role in the negotiations, Costa still needs to initiate dialogue with Putin.”

According to an assessment by another source, the European Council president could serve as a more neutral mediator than von der Leyen or Kallas, who are seen as overly focused on supporting Ukraine.

“Three or four people cannot go there with each of us speaking on behalf of the European Union,” one of the sources told the publication. “Ultimately, the choice of who represents the EU must be based on maximum efficiency, not on a personal power struggle or someone’s narcissistic ambitions.”

Politico previously reported in January that the EU was considering appointing a special representative for Ukraine negotiations. At the time, the initiative drew support from several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

Putin said he was ready to negotiate with European countries, but asserted that Europe had “no peace agenda” and stood “on the side of war”.

The Russian leader also named former German chancellor Gerhard Schröder as Moscow’s preferred negotiator from Europe.

Kallas ruled out such an appointment, noting that Schröder was “a lobbyist for Russian state companies” and would sit “on both sides of the negotiating table”.

Stubb details obstacles to talks and Oslo diplomatic drive

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said the principal obstacle to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine was the territorial issue.

Stubb took part in talks in Oslo with US envoy Steve Witkoff, who subsequently travelled to Saint Petersburg to meet Vladimir Putin.

As reported by the newspaper Helsingin Sanomat, Stubb stated that advancing the peace process required either bilateral talks between Russia and Ukraine or trilateral negotiations involving the US.

The Finnish president listed the other major items to be addressed within a settlement as US security guarantees for Ukraine and the construction of a new European security architecture after the war ends.

Without stating it outright, Stubb implied that the core issue within this framework was Ukraine’s NATO membership. The Finnish leader pointed to monitoring the ceasefire, establishing the line of contact, ensuring energy and food security, and exchanging prisoners as practical tasks.

Stubb also detailed the talks held in Oslo on 20 October, which included Witkoff, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.

The discussions, which spanned approximately eight hours across various formats, had three objectives: to lower tensions in public discourse, to convey European and Ukrainian proposals to the US envoy before his visit to Russia, and to determine the next steps toward a peaceful settlement. Stubb announced that these goals had been achieved.

Moscow ready to resume trilateral talks in November

Witkoff met Putin in Saint Petersburg on Wednesday.

Following the meeting, Russian presidential aide Yuriy Ushakov announced that Moscow was prepared to resume trilateral negotiations with the US and Ukraine during the first half of November.

Ushakov also said that the EU and NATO had begun to “take a more serious approach” to Kremlin proposals on Ukraine, adding that “matters” were moving toward an end to the conflict.

Witkoff described the meeting as “constructive”.

Sources told Bloomberg in September that Putin continued to insist the Donetsk region must come fully under Russian control, expressing confidence that the territory would be captured within the next six months.

Putin previously set conditions for ending the war, demanding that Ukraine abandon plans to join NATO, maintain a neutral and non-nuclear status, and that anti-Russian sanctions be lifted.

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Trump midterms calculus halts Israeli strike plan against Iran

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A comprehensive military operation planned by the Israeli military for 10 October did not take place because US President Donald Trump chose to avoid a broad conflict before the 3 November congressional midterm elections.

Preparations had been made on the orders of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for an aerial bombardment meant to last several days, according to a report by the Financial Times citing sources familiar with the matter.

The list of targets included nuclear facilities and locations associated with the Iranian leadership, along with power stations and other civilian infrastructure sites.

The planned strikes were projected to exceed the joint operation launched by the US and Israel in February in terms of intensity.

White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly told the newspaper: “The United States is not going to strike Iran at any point before the midterms.”

Kelly argued that the administration in Tehran was in distress both economically and militarily, adding that the blockade imposed on Iranian ports and US efforts to secure oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were producing results.

Speaking to the newspaper, one source addressed the possibility of strikes resuming in the coming weeks, saying: “There’s either going to be a deal or a strike.”

The same source reported that Washington aims for a comprehensive settlement that resolves the conflict over both the Strait of Hormuz and the nuclear programme, although it remained unclear whether the US would have participated directly in the cancelled operation.

Another source said the preparations for the operation might have served as leverage to pressure Tehran in negotiations, adding that the final decision on any new military step rests with the US president.

Hegseth reviews updated target list in Israel

An Israeli official said US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Israel on 19 October to meet with Netanyahu and senior representatives.

Another source stated that the Israeli side presented an updated target list to its American counterparts, compiled with fresh intelligence and incorporating civilian infrastructure sites that had not been struck earlier this year.

The Pentagon did not respond to questions regarding the meetings, while Netanyahu’s office and the Israeli military declined to comment.

Despite the postponement of the operation, Trump and Netanyahu continued to issue military warnings to Iran in public.

In a video released on 19 October, Netanyahu addressed Trump, saying: “Donald, you said we need to finish this, and we will finish it together.” Speaking on speakerphone, Trump responded: “You’re a great warrior, and we’re going to prove it very soon.”

These engagements between the leaders coincide with critical election cycles in both countries.

Parliamentary elections in Israel are scheduled for 27 October, one week before the vote in the US.

Most public opinion polls in the country show the opposition bloc holding a narrow lead over Netanyahu’s coalition, though neither side commands a clear majority.

Axios, a US-based news outlet, previously reported that the Pentagon instructed military planners to finalize strike plans against Iran, though the directive specified no date and Trump had not reached a final decision.

On 15 October, CNN reported on plans to use the GBU-43/B munition, known as the “mother of all bombs”, against Iranian nuclear facilities, with US officials who spoke to the broadcaster expressing scepticism about the weapon’s ability to destroy deep bunkers.

While Tehran announced that it remains open to a diplomatic solution, it declared that any potential operation would draw a fierce response.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stressed that if its adversaries chose military conflict, the response would be “much harsher than before”.

Following the joint operation launched by the US and Israel on 28 February, Iran retaliated by striking targets across the region and restricting maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Although the parties reached an agreement in June covering a ceasefire and negotiations to lift the blockade in the strait, reciprocal strikes between the US and Iran have not ceased.

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