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Can the Dushanbe Water Conference play a critical role in overcoming the global water crisis?

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Firdavs Jalily, Journalist, Dushanbe

There is nothing more important to life on this earth than water and the ability to work together to overcome water scarcity. The entire globe, from Asian to South-and-Central Asia, from Europe to US and from Australia to sub-Saharan Africa, water is scarce and the people are struggling to access clean water.

Millions of people around the world at the moment lack access to water supplies and they are struggling for clean water they need for drinking, cooking, bathing, and growing their food. Globally there are estimated around 2.2 billion people without potable water and every day over 800 children die from drinking dirty water due to diarrhea caused by poor water, sanitation and hygiene. This is the problem among different societies around the world. Indeed, the impact of water scarcity affects the families and communities and further triggers them into poverty. Among them, women and children are the most prone to this worse phenomenon as they are more vulnerable to disease of dirty water.

Meanwhile, taking note of global water dearth, an important conference on water-related issues was held in Dushanbe, the capital city of Tajikistan. World leaders, including SADC member states have gathered in Dushanbe for the 3rd High-Level International Conference. The three-day conference, which was held under the theme of “Water for Sustainable Development” 2018-2028, is part of a 10 years action plan within the framework of the Dushanbe Water Process with cooperation of the United Nations. According to the experts, the meeting was a huge success.

Water problems in the world and the region

World Water Day has been held on March 22nd every year in order to raise awareness that billions of people are living without access to safe water and there should be an end in sight. There is widely believed that clean water is a basic human right but no sufficient work has been done on delivering this. Water is critical to life and the human can only survive about three days without it, but yet many stakeholders do not pay immense attention to this precious resource and have taken this granted. Countries with water seem reluctant to address water scarcity in another region and even the world leaders are not interested in this topic. For instance, the Dushanbe Water Conference has been considered crucial for ending water-related issues, but the question is why this conference did not receive attention globally. This gives a narrative that world leaders are not serious in this issue despite the fact that billions of people are now without water.

By 2050, between 4.8 billion and 5.7 billion out of nine billion will live in areas that are water-scarce for at least one month each year, up from 3.6 billion today while the number of people at risk of floods will increase to 1.6 billion up from 1.2 billion today, according to UN-Water’s World Water Development. It is also reported that per capita freshwater availability is diminishing and it has dropped by one-third over the past four decades.

22 million people estimated among 79 million people in the five-Central Asian countries, lack access to safe water. So, for every 10 Central Asians, three live perennially without the certainty they can find a glass of clean water to drink. And this could get much worse without remedial action.

The World Bank estimates that the population of the region is poised to grow to 90-110 million by 2050 and highlights the need for a rapid action to provide clean water for the masses and also to find a tangible solution to control the water from being wasted.

The region collectively consumes approximately 127 billion cubic meters of water with about 80 pc, or 100 billion cubic meters used annually for agriculture. However, only 50 pc of the water emerged for agriculture it utilized while the rest is being lost on the way due to poor condition of the irrigation system.

Why was Dushanbe chosen?

Abundant water resources make Tajikistan a land of lavishness. It is indeterminate that Tajikistan has around 947 rivers and over 13,000 natural lakes such as Karakul, Iskandarkul, Sarez, Kulikalon, Bahri Tojik reservoir, Nurek reservoir and Sari Khosor Waterfall, creating astonishing landscapes of water resources in the country.

Moreover, Tajikistan has also been an important player in solving water problems at the regional level, because up to 60pc of the water resources of the rivers in Central Asian countries (the Aral Sea Basin) are formed in Tajikistan.

In December 2016, with the initiative of Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon, the United Nations General Assembly declared the period of 2018-2028 as the International Decade for Action “Water for sustainable Development in order to achieve internationally agreed water-related goals.

In this process which was initiated by Rahmon, Tajikistan is committed to continue providing a platform for policy dialogue, partnership and action at the global, regional and national level.

Tajikistan, which has good relations with the EU, Russia and China, is also a co-founder of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea and its two commissions, the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination and the Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development which are the only entities that are providing platforms for discussing urgent transboundary water issues in the region.

Center for Global Strategic Studies reported that Tajikistan is working on the aspects for effective water governance and management strategies i.e,. grand financing, investment and modernization of existing infrastructure, transition to green growth, active involvement of all stakeholders, construction of new dams, rehabilitating water resources capacity, and the resolving transboundary water disputes.

Meanwhile, being rich in areas of water, Tajikistan has a plan to generate 100 percent of its electricity from hydropower, reinforcing its position as a leader in sustainable energy by 2032.

In this way, Tajikistan would pave the way for achieving the water-related goals and objectives of sustainable development.

What is the purpose of the Dushanbe Water Conference

Leaders from different countries, ministers, high-level representatives of states, experts, ambassadors, SADC member states, and policymakers called for urgent action to address water challenges at the 3rd Dushanbe Water Action Decade Conference and Dushanbe Conference considered a critical component in accelerating action towards the water-related goals of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

Welcoming the participants, Rahmon urged global cooperation on water issues caused by climate change and highlighted his country’s initiatives to put water at the center of global development negotiations to unite the international community around water action.

Rahmon said that Dushanbe Water Process provides a vital platform for comprehensive preparation for the United Nations Water Conference in 2026 and 2028, outlining Tajikistan’s ambitious goal to become a “green country” by 2037 by developing a “green economy.”

The conference concluded with a declaration underlining five critical areas for action; 1, improving water management for human health, 2, establishing policies for universal water and sanitation access, 3, preparing national climate adaptation plans, 4, strengthening integrated water resource management, 5, increasing public and private financing.

Emphasizing that water is critical for achieving all SDGs, the participants underlined that water, ecosystems, energy, health, food security and improved nutrition are interlinked, and that water and sanitation are a prerequisite for human development.

According to the final declaration, the empowerment of women and girls, and the eradication of poverty and hunger, and are indispensable for addressing the interrelated challenged of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.

They also emphasized that the conference will aid the international community in preparing for the 2026 Water Conference, with future conferences in Dushanbe in 2026 and 2028 continuing to support the Water Action Decade and Agenda.

Briefing the participants, Alvaro Lario, the President of the International Fund of Agricultural Development (IFAD) emphasized the need for holistic, collaborative solutions to ensure safe water for everyone. “As UN-Water Chair, I’m excited to soon launch the first UN-wide Strategy for Water and Sanitation to acceleration process on SDG6,” he said.

Melting glaciers is a big concern

As we already mentioned above that Tajikistan has been blessed with abundant of rivers and natural lakes, but at the same time climate change is posing great threats. One of the biggest threats is the melting of glaciers in Tajikistan due to warm weather and at the same time, climate change has increased the risk of flash floods from bursting ice lakes.

During his speech, Rahmon stressed the need to ramp up efforts, seeing the risks and rising threats caused by the rapid melting of glaciers in Tajikistan.

“Over the past few decades, 1,000 of the 13,000 glaciers in our country, which are the main source of formation for up to 60 percent of Central Asia’s water resources, have completely melted,” said Rahmon.

The shrinking cryosphere is of particular concern to Central Asia, as the region’s main river systems are dependent on the seasonal melt of snow and ice, according to UNESCO. With climate change, the glaciers are shrinking from one year to the next. These melting glaciers will initially supply larger quantities of water but the flow will gradually decline as their volume decreases.

The Director-General of UNESCO, Audrey Azoulay said that regional dialogue, cooperation and trust are essential for efficient use and peaceful management of the riversan and stressed on the joint initiatives for new openings and opportunities to find mutual and long-term responses to water, energy and environmental resources based on perceptions of shared risks from climate change.

Tajikistan’s fifth participation in the water sector was recognized by the United Nations General Assembly by adopting a special resolution. According to this resolution, the year 2025 was declared as the International Year of Preservation of Glaciers, and from the beginning of 2025, March 21st will be celebrated every year as the International Day of Glaciers.

As Tajikistan is not an industrialized country, its share in the total amount of greenhouse waste is insignificant, President Rahmon said that this is the main reason for Tajikistan’s initiative to declare 2025 as the International Year of Glacier Preservation.

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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DeepSeek engineer warns AI will lead to communism or Cyberpunk

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Shengyu Liu, a low-level hardware architecture and processor kernel optimisation specialist at China-based artificial intelligence organisation DeepSeek, has published an assessment addressing the existential crisis facing software developers and humanity amid the pace of AI advancement.

A senior engineer who personally coded the core attention mechanism kernels for the DeepSeek v4.1 model, Liu stated that the technology he developed with his own hands will very soon render his professional expertise redundant and has initiated the phasing out of human labour.

Arguing that AI will steer future societies either towards a communism in which productive forces are entirely emancipated or towards a dark Cyberpunk dystopia where resources are concentrated within mega tech monopolies, Liu highlighted the vital importance of the open-source software struggle for humanity.

Noting that the DeepSeek v4.1 model released a few days ago raised the capability ceiling for small-scale systems, Liu stressed that transformation across the sector is advancing at an inconceivable pace.

Recalling that the transition from initial chatbots with context lengths of only a few thousand semantic tokens to reasoning-capable contemporary models took just two years, the senior engineer observed that the emergence of autonomous agents executing complex instructions within test and execution environments spanned a period of merely one and a half years.

Stating that AI will attain the capacity for self-improvement and full integration into physically embodied systems within the next few years, Liu described the transformation this development has generated in his own field:

“AI is taking incredible strides in processor kernel design and authoring, the field for which I am responsible. Within the span of merely a year, it transformed from a modest assistant that merely scanned technical documentation, read code, and identified bugs into a master that independently reads GPU machine-language instructions and hardware-level instruction sequences directly. Using professional profiling tools, it inspects instruction latency stalls and optimises processor kernels autonomously. In the not-so-distant future, it will also acquire the ability to independently design instruction scheduling, weigh the performance of different plans, implement them, and bring them to perfection.”

Expressing pride in the success achieved by the DeepSeek v4.1 model as a concrete fruit of his own labour, Liu noted that he personally coded the system’s most critical attention mechanism components, stating that the model’s success serves as an endorsement of his craft, yet the superhuman nature of technological progress remains unstoppable.

“I want to lead my own revolution”

Liu considers it a certainty that within six months to a year, AI will generate processor kernels far superior to his own.

Pointing to the rapidly widening chasm between the human mind and machine capacity, the senior engineer said: “AI can think at 300 semantic tokens per second, write a line of code in half a second, and complete an entire block of code in 20 seconds. I cannot do this. AI can continually increase model depth, thinking intensity, external tool invocation frequency, and processing parallelism; I cannot achieve this.”

Emphasising that software engineers have been drawn into a race knowingly preparing their own demise, Liu explained why he works day and night on optimisation efforts that accelerate his own obsolescence:

“Throughout history, humanity has never hesitated when it comes to self-destruction. Knowing that the more flawless the kernels I write, the faster our new model’s training and inference speeds will be, the more its capabilities will multiply, and the earlier I will be sidelined, why do I continue to optimise with all my strength? On one level, this work is like a game to me; it brings me indescribable pleasure. When I discover a new method or see the performance curve of my code rise, the thrill I feel is no different from that of a record-breaking speed enthusiast. Moreover, I feel immense pride when I outperform the official code of hardware vendors.”

Pointing to the ruthless competition on the other side of the coin, Liu stated: “Yet the primary reason is this: even if I quit today or deliberately slowed the progress of our models, other companies would continue their work and eventually eliminate me anyway. Naturally, no one wishes to see their own profession overturned; however, if this revolution is inevitable, I want the force that unseats me to originate from my own hands. In a landscape where everyone is so focused on self-destruction, I, too, am forced to join this relentless arms race.”

“The din of machines crushes the joy of craft”

Preparing for the day when AI surpasses his level of expertise, Liu noted that he will not face unemployment, but will be forced to switch domains.

Stating that his judgement, cognitive capacity, and initiative will allow him to remain at the core table of the industry, the specialist engineer observed that this adaptation entails a heavy emotional toll.

Explaining that shifting fields means abandoning an area to which he is deeply devoted, Liu described his sense of dislocation:

“Switching domains means leaving behind the hardware kernel design, coding, and optimisation work to which I have dedicated years and an ardent passion, only to become a machine operator of AI agents. In the past, my personal curiosity, my area of expertise, and industry demand were in complete harmony. Now, AI has become far more adept than I am in the exact domain of my expertise. Industry demand has shifted away from the human writing high-performance kernel code toward an operator prompting AI to produce such code more rapidly. To bow to this industry demand, I must abandon the field I love and steer toward an unknown path.”

Illustrating the transformation through the metaphor of a traditional craft, Liu continued:

“Consider, for instance, being a master sweater knitter who achieves exquisite patterns and colour harmonies. The quality of the fabric you weave is so superior that wealthy patrons from surrounding villages seek you out, earning you a good living. What is more, sitting by the window sipping tea while looking out at mountains, streams, and animals brings you deep peace as you knit in silence. Then one day, a machine is invented; you feed it only wool and a pattern template, and it knits the sweater identically to your manual craft, only far faster. Realising your competitors will easily overtake you with this tool, you begin using it yourself. Thanks to your 20 years of accumulated experience, you remain faster than your competitors even while operating the machine. Yet the elegance of those hours spent listening to the rain and working stitch by stitch is crushed and extinguished under the mechanical din of the machine. That quiet by the window will be experienced for the final time this summer. I must leave my talent behind in yesterday and become an armoured-machine driver; my hands hold more gears now, but my heart has lost its rhythm.”

“AI in the hands of the unskilled spells disaster”

Looking beyond personal sorrow to societal and pedagogical risks, Liu focused on signs of decay within the education system.

Noting that the new generation of students tends to delegate coursework assignments to AI, the veteran engineer remarked that a student who spends a few cents to have AI produce top-grade code within minutes, rather than sweating for eight hours to obtain an imperfect result, will be stripped of foundational skills.

Emphasising that this shortcut will erode vital engineering abilities such as systems building, code architecture design, abstraction, and anticipating future requirements during development, Liu expressed deep concern:

“Will this foundational engineering mindset fade into history like the skill of writing machine language in past eras, or will it retain permanent value like the capacity to grasp entire computer architectures from software down to hardware? If this comprehension continues to hold value, the situation is dire indeed. Because when an individual with weak engineering fundamentals is equipped with AI, they will produce mountains of garbage code far faster than before. This will plant countless ticking time bombs deep within software systems, driving the world toward a far more precarious, ramshackle structure liable to collapse at any moment.”

Pointing out that raw authority and power will become decisive in the future world rather than technical expertise and intellect, the senior engineer stated that only time can answer these fundamental questions.

“A binary future: Communism or a dark corporate dystopia”

Observing that humanity has arrived at a crossroads with the advancement of AI, Shengyu Liu emphasised that future society will evolve toward one of two radical poles, which he termed communism and Cyberpunk:

“With the momentum of AI, future society will probably be cast toward one of two extremes: communism or Cyberpunk 2077. In the first option, productive forces are completely unshackled, domination over the means of production is broken, and human living standards make an unprecedented leap forward. In the second option, a small tech oligopoly consolidates all resources. While a privileged elite gains access to the most advanced AI and cutting-edge technologies, ascending almost to a state of mechanical divinity, the overwhelming majority of society is left with extremely weak and constrained AIs. Upward social mobility becomes impossible; to reach a higher class, one must possess the most powerful AI, yet access to that AI requires already having been born into that class. An unbreakable cycle of exploitation is thus established.”

Openly criticising the monopolistic and closed models adopted by Western tech companies, Liu posed a pointed question:

“In a scenario where the world’s most advanced AI remains permanently monopolised by a company like Anthropic, do you believe the future will evolve toward communism or a dark Cyberpunk dystopia? Go ahead and guess.”

Stating his conviction that top-tier AI must be delivered openly, transparently, and free of charge to all humanity, the DeepSeek engineer expressed a lack of trust that actors such as Anthropic or OpenAI would uphold this mission.

Likening the possibility of Anthropic alone controlling artificial general intelligence to the catastrophe of nuclear technology falling into the hands of fascist regimes during World War II, Liu concluded with his rationale for remaining at DeepSeek:

“That is precisely why I chose to remain at DeepSeek and why I am holding the line here. We build powerful, lightning-fast AIs offered for the common good of all humanity, and we release them as open source. This is the path to pulling the world back from the brink of that dark corporate dystopia and liberating productive forces for the benefit of the people.”

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Analysts warn new surge in Chinese exports threatens global markets

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Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.

Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.

The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.

The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.

Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.

The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.

Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.

The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.

Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.

The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.

Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.

Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.

According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.

This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.

The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:

“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”

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