Connect with us

Asia

China’s exports beat forecasts amid precautions against Trump’s tariff threat

Published

on

China’s exports surged at their fastest pace in two years this October, as factories increased shipments to key markets to counter new tariffs from the United States and European Union and the looming risk of a two-front trade war.

The recent victory of Donald Trump, who has pledged to impose tariffs exceeding 60 percent on Chinese imports, is likely to lead to a buildup of stockpiles in China’s top export markets.

Trump’s tariff threat has unsettled Chinese factory owners and officials managing exports worth approximately $500 billion annually. Tensions are further strained by trade issues with the EU, which purchased $466 billion of Chinese goods last year.

While domestic confidence remains impacted by a persistent property market debt crisis, export momentum offers a bright spot for China’s struggling economy.

Exports from the world’s second-largest economy rose by 12.7 percent year-on-year last month, surpassing a 5.2 percent increase forecasted by Reuters economists and a 2.4 percent rise in September. However, imports fell by 2.3 percent, against predictions of a 1.5 percent decline, marking the first negative import growth in four months.

China’s trade surplus climbed to $95.27 billion in October, up from $81.71 billion in September.

“We anticipate a wave of front-loading into Q4 before pressure mounts in 2025,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. “This is largely due to Trump’s tariff threat, which is becoming increasingly realistic.”

The ‘Trump effect’ on exports

China’s exports to the U.S. increased 8.1 percent year-on-year in October, while shipments to Europe rose by 12.7 percent over the same period.

“We expect exports to remain strong in the coming months,” said Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, in a note. He added that the impact of Trump’s tariffs may not materialize until late next year.

Huang noted that Trump’s return could prompt U.S. importers to step up purchases to bypass potential tariffs, offering a short-term boost to Chinese exports.

China’s top exports to the U.S. last year included smartphones, tablet computers, and video game consoles. Similar to Trump’s initial term, Chinese electronics makers may once again be a target.

Yet, signals indicate waning demand for these goods. Trade data from South Korea and Taiwan points to slowing global demand, and German producers report declining interest from overseas buyers, suggesting that Chinese producers may be cutting prices or moving inventory out of China to attract buyers.

An official survey of factory activity in October showed Chinese factories struggling to secure overseas buyers.

“If the PMI new export sub-index is dropping while the export numbers are rising, it’s clear this is an inventory adjustment,” said Dan Wang, a Shanghai-based Chinese economist.

Rising rtocks and weak yuan boost exports

Chinese and Hong Kong stocks rose on Thursday, buoyed by investor optimism over potential stimulus measures, while the yuan rebounded from a three-month low against the dollar. Analysts note that the weak yuan may have fueled export growth, though it simultaneously raised import costs.

China’s imports from the European Union and Southeast Asia fell by 6.1 percent and 7.3 percent year-on-year last month, while Japanese imports continued to rise. Notably, crude oil purchases—from the world’s largest oil importer—dropped by 9 percent, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline on an annual basis.

Zhou Maohua, a macroeconomic researcher at China Everbright Bank, attributed the decline in import growth to weak domestic demand and low import prices.

Conversely, China’s soybean imports surged last month, as U.S. grain exporters raced to meet demand in China ahead of the U.S. election.

Economists warn against over-reliance on exports

Amid these challenges, economists urge Beijing to avoid over-reliance on exports for growth, recommending more economic stimulus to stabilize the economy.

ANZ analysts forecast a policy response involving monetary measures and other strategies to mitigate Trump-era tariff pressures.

“Authorities may also implement measures to cushion the tariff impact, such as subsidies or better access to financing,” said Raymond Yeung, ANZ’s chief economist for Greater China. He added that policy initiatives could also focus on domestic consumption campaigns and diversifying export markets within Belt and Road countries.

Asia

India, Pakistan military chiefs to discuss ceasefire next steps

Published

on

The military operations chiefs of India and Pakistan will meet today to discuss the next steps for the nuclear-armed neighboring countries, following a ceasefire along the border that has seen the most severe clashes in approximately 30 years.

No explosions or missile attacks were reported overnight following initial ceasefire violations. The Indian army announced that Sunday marked the first peaceful night on the border in recent days, despite some schools remaining closed.

The Saturday ceasefire in the Himalayan region, announced by US President Donald Trump, followed four days of intense clashes and diplomatic initiatives.

A senior Indian army official stated that the Indian army had sent a “hotline” message to Pakistan on Sunday regarding the previous day’s ceasefire violations, informing New Delhi of its intention to respond to such incidents.

A Pakistan army spokesperson, however, maintained there were no violations.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs announced on Saturday that the Directors-General of Military Operations from both sides would meet on Monday at 12:00 PM (06:30 GMT).

Pakistan did not comment on the meeting plans.

After relations deteriorated when India blamed Pakistan for an attack that resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists, the two former rival countries targeted each other’s military facilities with missiles and drones, leading to the deaths of dozens of civilians.

Pakistan denies the accusations and calls for an impartial investigation.

India announced on Wednesday that it had attacked nine “terror infrastructure” targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, though Islamabad stated these were civilian targets.

While Islamabad thanked Washington for its role in securing the ceasefire, it welcomed Trump’s offer to mediate the Kashmir dispute with India. However, New Delhi did not comment on US involvement in the ceasefire or talks to be held in a neutral location.

India, maintaining that disputes with Pakistan should be resolved directly between the neighboring countries, rejected any third-party intervention.

Hindu-majority India and Muslim Pakistan govern parts of Kashmir in the Himalayan region but claim sovereignty over the entire territory.

India accuses Pakistan of being responsible for the insurgency that began in its part of Kashmir in 1989, but Pakistan maintains it only provides moral, political, and diplomatic support to Kashmiri separatists.

Continue Reading

Asia

China’s April exports defy tariff expectations with 8% rise

Published

on

China’s export growth showed resilience in April, defying expectations that the effects of the trade war with the US would begin to be felt. According to statistics released by China’s customs administration on Friday, exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year in dollar terms.

This increase was below the 12.4% growth recorded in March. However, according to data released by the customs administration on Friday, this increase was well above the 1.9% growth forecast in a Reuters poll of economists.

Imports, meanwhile, fell for the third consecutive month, contracting by 0.2% last month.

Exports to the US fell by 21% last month, while imports from the US decreased by 13.8%.

Exports to China’s largest trading partners, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the European Union, increased by 20.8% and 8.3% respectively.

The figures were released after Washington and Beijing entered a trade war.

US President Donald Trump last month implemented tariff increases of up to 145% on most products imported from China and said he would impose new tariffs even on low-value packages from the country. Beijing responded with a 125% tariff.

The two countries will begin trade talks in Geneva on Saturday. The US will be represented by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, while China’s delegation will be led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, the country’s top economic official.

This will be the first high-level meeting between the two sides since January, when Chinese Vice President Han Zheng attended Trump’s inauguration ceremony. Bessent said the trade war was “unsustainable.”

Continue Reading

Asia

Chinese consumer spending rebounds during May Day break

Published

on

During the five-day May Day holiday, Chinese spending increased by 8% year-on-year, reaching 180.27 billion yuan (approximately $25 billion), indicating that consumer activity remains vibrant.

An estimated 314 million domestic trips were made, marking a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year.

The May Day holiday, one of the country’s longest breaks, is closely watched as a barometer of Chinese consumer confidence.

China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism recorded 314 million domestic trips during the holiday, a 6.5% increase, while the number of transactions using Weixin Pay, a popular payment app, rose by more than 10% year-on-year, with a notable surge in restaurant spending.

According to Reuters’ calculations based on official data, total spending per person during the five-day May holiday period, typically a busy time for family travel, increased by 1.5% to 574.1 yuan.

This figure remained below pre-pandemic levels, when spending per person was 603.4 yuan.

Consumption in the world’s second-largest economy has been hurt by a post-pandemic slowdown and a prolonged property crisis, with the effects of the US-China trade war expected to deepen these challenges.

Meanwhile, China’s services sector saw a slowdown in new order growth compared to March, according to a private sector survey released on Tuesday, due to uncertainty caused by US tariffs.

Despite stronger-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter, supported by government stimulus, the Chinese economy continues to face persistent deflationary risks.

The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 50.7 from 51.9 in March, marking its lowest reading since September.

This aligns largely with the official survey, which showed services activity in China easing to 50.1 from 50.3 the previous month.

The Caixin services survey indicated that new business growth slowed to its weakest level since December 2022, although export orders saw some increase, partly linked to the recovery in tourism.

Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said the drop in the Caixin PMI “provides further evidence that the trade war is weighing on economic activity in China, even beyond the manufacturing sector.”

Huang added, “While some caution is clearly warranted, we suspect firms are overstating how much damage US tariffs will do.”

Around 48% of China’s workforce was employed in the services sector in 2023, and the sector contributed 56.7% to total GDP last year. However, US President Donald Trump’s trade actions could hit the manufacturing sector and damage businesses’ hiring plans and consumer confidence.

Business sentiment in the services sector grew at its slowest pace since February 2020, with companies citing US tariffs as a major concern.

Service providers cut jobs for a second consecutive month to reduce costs, leading to an increase in backlogs of work and pushing the relevant indicator into expansionary territory for the first time this year.

Firms also lowered prices to attract customers despite high input costs.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey