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Chinese investment surge in Vietnam risks Trump’s tariff retaliation

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Chinese companies are fueling almost one in three new investments in Vietnam, a sign of how they are moving their operations abroad to avoid Donald Trump’s trade war.

But the shift could increase Vietnam’s vulnerability to tariffs as Trump targets countries with large trade surpluses with the US.

Vietnam has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Its trade surplus with the US reached $123.5 billion last year, the third largest after China and Mexico.

Part of this was due to exports from companies such as Apple and Intel, which moved production lines from China to Vietnam to spread supply chain risks and avoid punitive tariffs.

But Vietnam is also increasingly receiving investment from Chinese companies. From 22% of new projects in 2023, this proportion rose to 28% last year.

Meir Tlebalde, CEO of Sunwah Kirin Consulting Vietnam, which advises foreign investors, told the Financial Times that Chinese capital is still turning to Vietnam, even though it is no longer cheap.

He noted that most Chinese manufacturing investments in Vietnam were made to avoid US tariffs and to obtain a different ‘certificate of origin’ for goods produced by Chinese companies.

But Vietnam’s supply chain is still heavily dependent on China. “At least half of the raw materials come from China,” Tlebalde said.

In the first month of 2025, Chinese companies accounted for 30% of projects, according to the latest government data. Analysts said Chinese investments also came via Hong Kong and Singapore, and these two countries were the top investing countries in Vietnam in dollar terms last year.

The surge in Chinese investment in Vietnam and its dependence on Chinese raw materials could attract the attention of the Trump administration, which has accused Beijing of circumventing tariffs by shipping goods through third countries.

Vietnam, like many other countries, is vulnerable to Trump’s threats of reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners. Trump has also threatened to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports, which could hit Vietnam, the fifth largest supplier of metals to the US.

High tariffs would have a major impact on the Vietnamese economy, discouraging investment and hampering one of the world’s fastest growth rates. About 30% of Vietnam’s exports go to the US.

Recognizing the risks to his country, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh told Davos last month that Hanoi was developing ‘political and economic solutions’ to address the trade imbalance.

He added that Vietnam would buy between 50 and 100 airplanes and other high-tech US equipment from Boeing over the next 10 years and agreed to play golf with Trump ‘all day long’ if necessary.

This month, Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien said Vietnam is willing to increase agricultural imports from the US and will not implement any measures to restrict trade with the US.

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Nvidia CEO visits China amid US AI chip ban

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Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang visited Beijing on Thursday after Washington’s new restrictions on the chipmaker’s sales caused its shares to fall.

Huang’s visit comes at a time when Beijing and Washington are facing off in a tariff war, and Nvidia is one of the US technology leaders bearing the brunt of the trade war. Huang had dinner with US President Donald Trump a week earlier.

According to local media and a person familiar with his travel itinerary, Huang arrived in China on Wednesday to meet with officials and technology leaders to discuss the consequences of Donald Trump’s move to further restrict sales in the country.

According to a post on Chinese state media’s social media site Weibo, Huang’s trip took place at the invitation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, a government-affiliated trade group heavily involved in facilitating US-China business relations.

The Financial Times reported that while in Beijing, Huang also met with Liang Wenfeng, the founder of Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek, to discuss developments in the artificial intelligence chip industry.

The post, which showed Huang smiling for the cameras, noted that the visit came after the US President had previously said he wanted to continue working with China.

On Tuesday, the Trump administration announced export restrictions on Nvidia’s H20 chip—a lower-powered version of its artificial intelligence products specifically designed for the Chinese market to comply with US controls.

Nvidia had been under the impression that it could continue selling the chip to China after the meeting between Huang and Trump at Mar-a-Lago earlier this month. The chipmaker had told major Chinese customers such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent that their H20 purchases would not be affected.

Nvidia announced yesterday that it would take a $5.5 billion hit to earnings as a result of the new controls.

The visit also comes as US lawmakers are requesting information from Nvidia about whether Chinese artificial intelligence group DeepSeek has been able to obtain export-controlled chips.

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China’s economy exceeds expectations with 5.4% growth in first quarter

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China’s economy surpassed expectations in the first quarter, driven by robust consumption and industrial production.

According to data released on Wednesday, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, exceeding the 5.1% increase expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, described the 5.4% growth rate as “a very good start,” noting that government stimulus had boosted consumption and supported investment.

“In each of the past two years, China’s first quarter has been high, and the second quarter has been low,” Xu said, adding that a “strong and timely policy response” was needed, given the additional pressure from US tariffs.

Exports helped support growth last year, even as a trillion-dollar trade surplus, a prolonged real estate sector slump, and sluggish domestic demand continued to undermine a solid recovery.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said this week that the country’s exporters would have to cope with “profound” external changes and pledged to support greater domestic consumption.

According to Reuters, analysts are concerned that US tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the momentum China has gained.

The economy is expected to grow at an annual rate as low as 4.5% in 2025, slowing from last year’s 5.0% pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%, according to a Reuters poll. Many analysts have sharply lowered their GDP forecasts for this year.

On Wednesday, ANZ lowered its China 2025 GDP forecast from 4.8% to 4.2% and its 2026 forecast from 4.5% to 4.3%, citing punitive US tariffs.

UBS painted an even more pessimistic picture this week, cutting its 2025 growth forecast for the Asian giant from 4% to 3.4%, assuming continued increases in China-US tariffs and additional stimulus from Beijing.

“We believe the tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges for China’s exports and will also lead to a major adjustment in the domestic economy,” UBS analysts said in a note.

While many other countries are covered by US tariffs, Trump has targeted China for the largest tariffs.

Last week, Trump’s move to raise tariffs on China by 145% led to Beijing raising tariffs on US goods by 125%.

Unemployment and deflation issues

The escalating trade war with the US overshadowed some of the brighter notes in separate data.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March, after increasing 4.0% in January-February, while growth in factory output accelerated to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both figures exceeded analysts’ forecasts.

The increase in retail sales was driven by sharp double-digit increases in sales of home electronics and furniture, aided by the government’s consumer goods trade-in program.

However, the decline in China’s real estate sector continued to be a drag on overall growth.

Real estate investment fell 9.9% year-on-year in the first three months, widening from a 9.8% drop in January-February. New home prices in March were unchanged from the previous month.

Data released on Wednesday indicated that the economic recovery is still uneven, particularly as high unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures raise concerns about weak demand.

“A good GDP does not represent the overall economic health of an economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. “Deflation and youth unemployment remain major concerns,” he added.

Broad policy measures required

Moreover, analysts believe that the increase in China’s exports in March—driven by factories rushing shipments to beat Trump’s latest tariffs—could sharply reverse in the coming months as heavy US tariffs take effect.

Analysts expect further support measures in the coming months, following monetary easing steps taken late last year.

Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded China’s credit rating, citing rapidly growing public debt and risks to public finances, signaling a difficult balancing act for policymakers seeking to expand consumption in the face of declining trade.

“The current situation is similar to the negative shocks China has experienced in the past, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2008,” said Yeung from ANZ.

“We see limited options for Chinese authorities other than a major fiscal expansion to counter the tariff shock,” he assessed.

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China trade fair: US market ‘frozen’ amid tariff hikes

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Candice Li, attending the China trade fair in Canton, says that US orders for her firm’s medical devices have dried up after Washington increased tariffs on Chinese goods by 145%.

Speaking to Reuters, Candice Li, marketing manager at Conmo Electronic Co., said, “This is a matter of life and death because 60%-70% of our business is with American clients.” She added, “Goods cannot be exported, and money cannot be collected. This is a very serious situation.”

Li was at her firm’s booth at the Canton Fair in the southern city of Guangzhou, China’s largest trade fair, held twice a year, where more than 30,000 participants display their products in an area larger than 200 soccer fields.

This fair is the first China has held since US President Donald Trump introduced tariffs earlier this month, exceeding 100% for China and at least 10% for the rest of the world.

Most of the exporters Reuters spoke with said that US orders, vital for firms like Li’s, were either delayed or not arriving—a bad sign for the world’s second-largest economy, whose growth last year relied heavily on its trillion-dollar trade surplus.

No other country comes close to China’s sales of over $400 billion in goods to the US annually.

Even though the tariffs Trump will impose on the rest of the world are much lower, they are likely to reduce global demand in the coming months and, indirectly, the appetite for Chinese goods in other countries.

Kobe Huang, a sales representative for Shenzhen Landun Environmental Technology, which produces water filters and smart toilets, said at the China trade fair in Canton that European sales are up for now, but the US market is “frozen.”

“US clients and distributors haven’t canceled orders, but they’ve asked us to wait. So, we’re holding on,” he stated.

Levy Spence, a US importer and president of Air Esscentials, said, “Prices will go up.” He added, “Even for products we source in the United States, many of the raw materials come from all over the world. It’s not just about China tariffs.”

Organizers noted that approximately 170,000 overseas buyers had registered for this month’s fair as of April 8, compared to a record attendance of 253,000 at the previous fair, which ended in November. About 10% of these attendees come from the US and Europe, whereas the previous rate was about 20%.

The fair will take place from April 15 to May 5. Local media reported that a total of $25 billion in deals were made at the previous fair.

Many exporters said they were either moving production bases outside of China or shifting the markets where they sell away from the US.

Henry Han, sales manager at Apexto Electronics Co., which produces SSD and micro SD flash drives, says that the US market, which accounted for 30% before the pandemic, now accounts for only 10% of direct sales. Many of his clients receive shipments of components for final assembly in a third country to avoid tariffs.

Apexto conducted a study last year to see if it could move production to Vietnam or the Philippines to avoid being directly affected by US tariffs, but Han said these plans are currently on hold as these countries may also face high tariffs.

After Trump imposed a 46% tariff on Vietnam and 17% on the Philippines on April 2, he reduced these rates to 10% for the next three months while beginning bilateral negotiations on trade with approximately 75 different countries.

David Du, sales manager for speaker manufacturer Zealot, said that an order for 30,000 speakers to be distributed to Skechers stores in the US was suspended after Trump’s tariffs. However, he said they could rely on other markets.

Zealot had a major and unexpected breakthrough in Nigeria in 2015, where its all-in-one speaker, power bank, and emergency flashlight became a hit, accounting for 40% of total sales and taking 45 containers a month—a market now twice as large as the US.

Du said they are “as big as JBL” in Nigeria, referring to the California-based audio equipment brand.

Medical device maker Li said her firm cannot find new markets overnight. She fears Conmo will soon have to reduce working hours and, eventually, staffing levels.

Li said, “I worry that if the situation remains deadlocked and neither side gives in, it will be ordinary people who ultimately suffer. How will salaries be paid? There will be unemployment.”

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