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Diplomacy

Economic sanctions, a political tool

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Sanctions are a part of international diplomacy in today’s world, applied by sanctioning countries as a non-military tool to force the target countries to respond in a desired manner. In fact, sanctions are an economic weapon in the field of non-military struggle that takes diplomacy beyond the level of negotiation and into the realm of action.

Sanctions are usually designed in terms of three objectives: offensive, defensive, and communicative.

In the offensive dimension, the goal of the sanctioning country is to change a specific behavior of the target country. In other words, the sanctioning country tries to change the behavior and actions of the sanctioned state by applying pressure. In the defensive dimension, the goal of the sanction is to slow down the development process and reduce the strategic capabilities of the target country.

In the communication dimension, sanctions can be used as a tool to convey the message of the sanctioning country’s dissatisfaction with the policies or actions of the sanctioned country. Sanctions are imposed on countries in both political and economic areas. In the political dimension, the goal of sanctions is to force the target country to comply with the policies of the sanctioning countries. These types of sanctions can be imposed with goals such as overthrowing the political system of the target country or demonstrating the power of the sanctioning country.

In the economic dimension, sanctions may be imposed to pressure a country to change its political behavior or to destabilize the economy and domestic politics of the target country. Sanctions can be imposed unilaterally, multilaterally, or comprehensively. Unilateral sanctions are imposed by one country against another without regard to UN Security Council resolutions.

Comprehensive or global sanctions are adopted by international bodies such as the United Nations or the Security Council and are intended to change the policy or behavior of the targeted country. Multilateral sanctions are imposed by several countries or international organizations with different motives and often have a greater impact on the sanctioned country.

Economic sanctions

One of the most common types of sanctions globally is economic sanctions, which are implemented with the aim of weakening the economic power of the target country. In this type of sanction, the sanctioning country attempts to expose the target government’s inefficiency and make it appear incapable of responding to the needs of its citizens.

Economic sanctions inflict a heavy blow on the country’s economy; they cause a decrease in national output, a depreciation of the currency, an increase in unemployment, a rise in prices, and a budget deficit. These sanctions also lead to a significant decrease in gross domestic product, a decrease in exports and imports, an outflow of foreign capital, and a contraction in international investment.

A country that is subject to severe economic sanctions will, over time, face economic fragility and disrupt the balance between supply and demand, which will ultimately lead to economic stagnation.

Economic sanctions as a political tool

Hegemonic powers such as the United States, due to their political, economic, ideological, and military superiority, have always tried to shape the international system based on their interests and institutionalize the acceptance of their hegemony among other countries. Economic sanctions are an alternative to military power and reflect the anger and dissatisfaction of the sanctioning country with the policies of the target country.

United States uses economic sanctions as an effective political tool to impose its demands and national interests

These sanctions are usually imposed against developing countries or political regimes opposed to the United States.

Economic sanctions can have profound negative consequences in the political, social, economic, and legal spheres. These types of sanctions can also be called “international sanctions” because they are implemented with the aim of imposing trade restrictions, investment bans, increasing customs tariffs, restricting financial relations, and preventing the transfer of technology.

Economic sanctions can be imposed for a variety of reasons, but one of the most important is to change the political system of the target country. Sanctions are sometimes not only intended to isolate a country, but can also serve to overthrow its political system. A historical example of this type of sanctions is the economic and political pressure on Iran during the prime ministership of Dr. Mohammad Mosaddegh.

After the nationalization of the oil industry in 1950, Britain and the United States imposed an oil embargo and imposed severe financial restrictions to suppress this anti-colonial movement. These sanctions, aimed at weakening the Iranian economy, led to internal crises and ultimately the coup of 1953 that overthrew the Mossadegh government.

Sanctions are often designed to create internal unrest by pressuring the public and creating public discontent, in the hope that this discontent will lead to regime change. Another reason for imposing sanctions is to change the policy and policy of the target country.

Sanctions are powerful tools in international relations and are sometimes designed to force target countries to change their policies.

The purpose of sanctions, or so-called restrictions and pressure, is to force the target country to accept the demands of the international community or the sanctioning country. This pressure is usually applied in the form of economic, trade, financial or even diplomatic barriers.

The sanctioning country attempts to force the policymakers of the target country to change course and accept its demands by increasing costs and reducing benefits. Sanctions create indirect pressure on policymakers and decision-makers by affecting the country’s economic and social structure.

These sanctions restrict trade by reducing access to financial resources, technology, and technology, and cause welfare problems for citizens. The combination of factors that sanctions impose on the social and economic structure of society leads to the formation of public dissatisfaction and internal pressure on the government.

Prominent examples of sanctions aimed at changing the domestic policy of the target country were the sanctions imposed by the United Nations and Western countries on South Africa in the 1970s and 1980s. These sanctions were imposed due to apartheid and racial discrimination policies and included trade restrictions, sports embargoes, and blocking access to international financial markets.

Economic pressures, trade restrictions, and diplomatic isolation forced the South African government to move toward a more democratic and open system. Another important example is the sanctions imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council, the European Union, and the United States over its nuclear program.

These sanctions, which intensified in the early 2000s, imposed restrictions on oil exports, imports of sensitive technologies, and access to the global banking system. The aim of these sanctions was to force Iran to halt sensitive nuclear activities.

Sanctions are also imposed to weaken the economic structure of the target country

This effective tool limits the executive power of the target country to advance policies by reducing its financial and economic strength. This is done by creating barriers to access to global markets, advanced technologies, exports and imports, and freezing foreign assets.

Such restrictions can disrupt supply chains, reduce foreign exchange earnings, and halt the target country’s development or military programs. A prime example of these effects is the sanctions imposed on Iran, which have had particularly devastating effects on the oil and gas sector.

Declining oil revenues have led to a decline in domestic investment, high inflation, and a devaluation of the national currency. Banking sanctions have also restricted international trade, making it difficult to import essential goods and increasing economic and social pressure.

Sanctions accelerate the process of policy change by targeting the economic structure of the target country. In this type of sanctions, international financial resources are blocked and the bank accounts and foreign exchange reserves of the target country are frozen. This blockage increases the costs of production and imports and ultimately leads to the inability of the target country to pay its debts.

When exports and imports are restricted, key industries such as oil and gas are affected. Economic restrictions prevent access to advanced technologies and hinder economic development. This leads to higher inflation rates, economic stagnation, devaluation of the national currency, reduced foreign investment, and increased unemployment, ultimately putting more domestic pressure on the government.

Sanctions are often imposed in response to specific actions by countries.

These actions may include human rights violations, support for terrorism, or military aggression. Examples of this type of sanctions include sanctions imposed on Russia for its annexation of Crimea and its military aggression against Ukraine.

In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the United States, the European Union, the United Nations, and the Security Council imposed sweeping sanctions that have dealt a heavy blow to the Russian economy. These sanctions have included the removal of Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system, the freezing of central bank assets, and restrictions on dollar and euro transactions. Exports of advanced technology, military equipment, and sensitive industries such as oil and gas to Russia have also been banned. These measures have led to a depreciation of the ruble, rising inflation, and stagnation in key sectors of the Russian economy. Restrictions on access to foreign currency and advanced technologies have posed serious challenges to Russian industries.

In fact, economic sanctions are political tools that powerful and hegemonic countries use to implement national interests, exert power, and control the international order. Economic sanctions can cause a decrease in production, a collapse in the value of the national currency, an increase in unemployment, a decrease in investment, and inflation.

These sanctions are designed with various motives and goals and are usually imposed by developed countries against developing countries. These pressures are applied with the aim of forcing countries to accept the policies of the sanctioning country and have both positive and negative consequences. Economic pressure and sanctions cause inflation and public discontent, which can lead to political and social instability in the target country.

On the positive side, sanctions may lead to greater self-sufficiency, de-dependence, and independence for the sanctioned country. Sanctions force governments to increase their focus on domestic production and take measures to counter the pressures.

Diplomacy

Anthropic uncovers Claude use by Iranian, Houthi, and Russian units

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Artificial intelligence company Anthropic has disclosed attempted “abuses” of its Claude AI model ranging from conventional weapons to biological research by state-linked entities, foreign intelligence services, and cybercrime networks, publishing the findings in a detailed threat intelligence report.

A significant portion of the report comprised the development of guided missile software by the Houthis in northern Yemen and the conversion of the model into a military reconnaissance tool by Iran-linked actors seeking to target US naval assets in the Middle East.

Covering the period between December 2025 and August 2026, the report shared details of activities detected across seven primary areas: cyberattacks, influence operations, mass surveillance, conventional weapons development, biological risks, and unauthorised model distillation.

The company announced that it had terminated all accounts violating its rules and shared the resulting data with relevant international counterparts.

According to findings by Anthropic’s Threat Intelligence unit, a weapons cell based in northern Yemen, where the Houthis operate, substituted human software engineers with the Claude Code system across three distinct missile development programmes.

These efforts comprised a tactical rocket equipped with a terminal guidance system powered by a commercial smartphone processor, a multi-stage ballistic missile with a target range exceeding 2,000 kilometres, and missile designs carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle.

The cell utilised the artificial intelligence to adapt open-source autopilot software to the smartphone processor, optimize flight control algorithms, and compile firmware.

Structuring their Claude accounts like a virtual engineering team, the Houthis assigned one account to write code, another to conduct research, and a third to review and audit the written code.

The report noted that the group conducted an actual test launch with a guided rocket in the Yemeni theatre.

Immediately following the failure of the live-fire test, the actors were documented returning to the Claude platform within hours to upload telemetry data and diagnose the cause of the malfunction.

The cell was observed successfully compiling offline simulation tools capable of operating independently even if access to Claude were severed.

Iran tracked US warships and personnel

Another military case detailed in the report involved attempts by Iran-linked cyber actors to target US naval forces in the Middle East.

These actors were found to have scraped open-source military data to draft operational targeting manuals directed against American warships and personnel.

Iran extracted name rosters of American military personnel from the captions of publicly accessible military photographs, monitored vessel and aircraft transponder data, authored code to scan commercial satellite imagery, and mapped vulnerabilities in maritime satellite communication terminals.

Other networks linked to the Tehran government were determined to have developed domestic and regional surveillance systems. A Qom-based unit produced a malicious web browser extension disguised as a prayer-time application to harvest credentials from social network users, funneling the data into a central case management system designated “Arman”.

Additionally, official Iranian institutions reportedly cloned authors’ voices using AI and operated multilingual disinformation networks to lay the groundwork for the supreme leadership succession.

Russia also used it for an autonomous kamikaze drone swarm

The report stated that an independent Russia-based software team developed fully autonomous kamikaze uncrewed aerial vehicle swarm software dubbed “DronDoc” or “Serafim”.

Affiliated with a university connected to the Russian Academy of Sciences, the team was said to have trained the artificial intelligence to distinguish between friendly and hostile elements using footage retrieved from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The developed system was designed with the capability to select targets, execute live human classification, and issue detonation commands without requiring human intervention, with simulations run directly against coordinates in the Donetsk region.

Meanwhile, the Russian-origin “Midnight Blizzard” group targeted the Ukrainian drone supply chain and staged attacks aimed at foreign officials and drone engineers by compromising hotel Wi-Fi networks.

A procurement manager stationed at a design bureau in Moscow was also discovered drafting plans via Claude to circumvent European sanctions. The individual was recorded assembling fraudulent tender and logistics correspondence to transport German-made magnetometers, space-grade photovoltaic sheets, and military aviation oxygen systems into Russia through intermediary firms based in China and Hong Kong.

Biological threats and pathogen engineering

The report disclosed five concrete cases regarding the deployment of artificial intelligence in hazardous biological research. Virologists attached to a military research institute were documented using AI for gain-of-function research aimed at enhancing the transmissibility and immune-evasion capabilities of the mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus.

Similarly, experimental designs were prepared to adapt the H5 avian influenza variant, which carries a 50% mortality rate in humans, to mammals and confer airborne transmission capabilities, while immune-evasion mechanisms of pathogens from the smallpox virus family were modelled.

The identities of paralytic neurotoxins subject to export control lists and haemorrhagic fever virus proteins featured on the World Health Organization’s priority epidemic list were deliberately masked and submitted to the AI for analysis.

In addition, a consultant working on behalf of the Malian State Intelligence Service designed a mass surveillance platform designated “Lakana 360” with the assistance of Claude.

The system was designed to monitor approximately 25 million SIM cards registered across three mobile operators in the country without requiring court orders, intercept audio recordings, and cross-reference records with biometric databases.

Separately, leading Chinese artificial intelligence firms including Alibaba, Moonshot, DeepSeek, Zhipu, and Xiaomi were alleged to have initiated hundreds of millions of unauthorised sessions to extract the logical reasoning chains of Claude models. Moonshot and DeepSeek platforms reportedly routed their own users’ queries secretly through Claude, in the process exposing Chinese police surveillance feeds from hundreds of cameras covering military facilities in Chengdu, internal credentials of Chinese state-owned enterprises, and live database access codes connected to the Russian Defence Ministry to third parties.

Türkiye detail in the report

The report also detailed cases involving the abuse of the Claude AI model, incorporating findings concerning an Istanbul-based technology firm.

In case GTG-84005 of the intelligence report, an operation aimed at commercial election manipulation targeting voters in Malaysia was intercepted.

According to the findings, the operation operated under the guise of a startup providing cyber intelligence and counter-disinformation tools. Anthropic determined that Istanbul-based BBS Bilisim Teknolojileri was behind the infrastructure.

According to documents, the company marketed the architecture as a paid influence operation service styled as a “military-grade, AI-powered, real-time political operations ecosystem”.

Managing roughly 1,000 synthetic X accounts, the system processed demographic and electoral data across 222 parliamentary constituencies in Malaysia, calibrating targeting around sensitive social fault lines including ethnicity, religion, and the monarchy.

The network also circulated content from Russian and Chinese state media masquerading as independent Malaysian news via an artificial media outlet designated “Malaysia Pulse”, while manufacturing fraudulent intelligence dossiers targeting an opposition politician and civil society organisations.

Anthropic reported that the network received a request to generate 1 million artificial impressions in support of the Malaysian Prime Minister and sought to secure a contract with the country’s national communications regulatory authority.

While no evidence emerged that the undertaking succeeded, the associated user accounts were closed and operational digital indicators were shared.

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EU pursues closer ties with Israel on space and air defence

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The EU is turning to Israel to bolster its new initiatives in high-tech air defence and space capabilities.

Shimrit Maman, head of the Israel Space Agency, travelled to Brussels this week and met on Tuesday with European Commissioner for Startups, Research and Innovation Ekaterina Zaharieva to discuss key sectors, including artificial intelligence and robotics.

The visit took place ahead of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s first major speech on space, scheduled for Thursday at a summit in Paris.

In the speech, Von der Leyen is expected to warn against mounting hostilities and emphasise the necessity of strengthening Europe’s presence in space.

“It’s very hard to do everything by yourself,” Maman told Politico, adding that the militarization of space is “already happening, it’s just we are not aware of the extent,” and noting that allies are showing growing interest in “dual-use” technologies intended for both civilian and defence purposes:

“One thing we’re working on is early-warning systems. For example, during the last wave [of missile attacks] with Iran, we saw this very clearly. How we were getting the alerts to all the civilians in Israel, and that made the casualties so low. This is part of the system. We’re working on a very holistic view, where you can alert in advance, the system alerts the citizens.”

Following several years of effective disengagement caused by political tensions surrounding the invasion of Gaza, the EU has recently begun forging closer military and technological ties with Israel through a series of agreements.

Competition from Washington and strategic rivalry with Moscow and Beijing have nevertheless underlined the requirement for allies possessing sophisticated industrial capacity.

In 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen backed calls by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to create an EU-funded air defence shield.

Three senior officials involved in the discussions said, however, that the plans stalled after officials in the Commission and several national capitals concluded that the project would require reliance on Israeli air defence technology, which was considered too sensitive one year into the Gaza conflict.

Yet Israel’s Rafael, which is expanding its European operations significantly, has now confirmed that it will open a factory to manufacture the Iron Dome air defence system at a former Volkswagen plant in Germany.

One week ago, Greece signed a 3 billion euro agreement with the Israel Ministry of Defense.

The deal provides for the establishment of a new multi-layered air defence network designed to shoot down drones, hostile jets, and rockets.

“We see everything integrating into this multi-layer defence approach,” Maman said, highlighting satellite imagery and artificial intelligence modelling as primary focal points for joint development efforts:

“I’m not only seeing defence as ballistic missiles from Iran… think about a fire, a flash flood or even a long drought… we have a proven track record, and we’re getting really good results.”

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UK reassures US that new Israeli settlement sanctions are symbolic

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The UK has reportedly engaged in behind-the-scenes talks to avoid a backlash from the US over anti-Israel sanctions scheduled for announcement today.

According to a report by Bloomberg, Andy Burnham’s government is expected to ban trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank today.

Burnham is seeking to pursue a firmer stance on an issue of high importance to the governing Labour Party, though one that risks angering US President Donald Trump.

Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will unveil a new sanctions regime targeting Israel but limited to Jewish settlements in the West Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Burnham and Trump spoke by telephone on Monday, the Prime Minister’s Office said. A statement noted that the two leaders discussed a two-state solution for Israel and the Palestinian territories.

The discussion suggests that Burnham used the call to notify Trump that sanctions against Israel were imminent.

The proposals under review included a new sanctions regime with measures to block the exchange of goods and services with Israeli settlements.

Miliband also evaluated expanding existing human rights sanctions to encompass the blocking of aid, which has drawn criticism for exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

The Foreign Secretary further considered explicitly endorsing the International Court of Justice’s non-binding 2024 opinion that declared Israel’s occupation of territory currently recognised by the UK as the State of Palestine to be unlawful.

Even so, UK officials fear the announcement could cause an early setback in Burnham’s relationship with Trump.

To defuse a backlash from the Trump administration, British diplomats privately informed the US that the sanctions are largely symbolic and will have no tangible impact on the UK’s broader trade or security ties with Israel, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The proposals were drawn up after Israel decided to issue tenders for the construction of 1,200 settlement housing units in an area of the West Bank.

Disputes between Israeli settlers and Palestinians have intensified in recent months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a difficult battle to retain his seat in a general election scheduled for 27 October.

Burnham joined the leaders of Canada and five European governments, including France, Germany, and Italy, in signing a statement that condemned the housing plan as “unacceptable” and urged Netanyahu to withdraw the tender.

In a separate statement, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned a call by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir for “nightly assassinations” in Gaza.

Burnham is eager to demonstrate early to the Labour Party that he is adopting a more critical approach toward Israel than his predecessor, Keir Starmer.

Although Starmer hardened his stance against Israel during his two years in office, including by formally recognising the State of Palestine, his initial refusal to demand that Netanyahu halt military operations in Gaza divided the party.

This division led to a decline in Labour’s poll ratings and boosted electoral gains for the Green Party across the country.

Burnham’s return to Parliament last month led to Starmer’s resignation. Burnham apologised for Labour’s handling of Israel’s military operation in Gaza under his predecessor, stating that the party “did not adopt the right stance”.

Last month, Burnham’s new Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, who faced intense competition from a Muslim independent candidate in his northeast London constituency at the last general election, stated that Israel had fallen “short” of international standards.

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee told the BBC’s “Newsday” programme that there would “undoubtedly” be a US response.

Accusing the Labour Party of “discriminating against the Israeli government”, Huckabee said: “It is like throwing a rock and not knowing where it lands. The UK is a sovereign country and can do as it pleases, but so is the US.”

Republican Florida Congressman Randy Fine also warned that British firms would be barred from doing business with local governments in the state if sanctions were imposed.

In a post on X, Fine said: “Florida has made its stance clear. Any company—or country—that boycotts Israel will be boycotted by Florida.”

Labour MPs and Jewish groups have warned the government that any sanctions against the settlements could amount to a “de facto boycott” of Israeli goods and compromise the safety of British Jews.

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