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China’s economy exceeds expectations with 5.4% growth in first quarter

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China’s economy surpassed expectations in the first quarter, driven by robust consumption and industrial production.

According to data released on Wednesday, China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the January-March quarter, exceeding the 5.1% increase expected by analysts polled by Reuters.

Xu Tianchen, a senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, described the 5.4% growth rate as “a very good start,” noting that government stimulus had boosted consumption and supported investment.

“In each of the past two years, China’s first quarter has been high, and the second quarter has been low,” Xu said, adding that a “strong and timely policy response” was needed, given the additional pressure from US tariffs.

Exports helped support growth last year, even as a trillion-dollar trade surplus, a prolonged real estate sector slump, and sluggish domestic demand continued to undermine a solid recovery.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang said this week that the country’s exporters would have to cope with “profound” external changes and pledged to support greater domestic consumption.

According to Reuters, analysts are concerned that US tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the momentum China has gained.

The economy is expected to grow at an annual rate as low as 4.5% in 2025, slowing from last year’s 5.0% pace and falling short of the official target of around 5.0%, according to a Reuters poll. Many analysts have sharply lowered their GDP forecasts for this year.

On Wednesday, ANZ lowered its China 2025 GDP forecast from 4.8% to 4.2% and its 2026 forecast from 4.5% to 4.3%, citing punitive US tariffs.

UBS painted an even more pessimistic picture this week, cutting its 2025 growth forecast for the Asian giant from 4% to 3.4%, assuming continued increases in China-US tariffs and additional stimulus from Beijing.

“We believe the tariff shock poses unprecedented challenges for China’s exports and will also lead to a major adjustment in the domestic economy,” UBS analysts said in a note.

While many other countries are covered by US tariffs, Trump has targeted China for the largest tariffs.

Last week, Trump’s move to raise tariffs on China by 145% led to Beijing raising tariffs on US goods by 125%.

Unemployment and deflation issues

The escalating trade war with the US overshadowed some of the brighter notes in separate data.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumption, rose 5.9% year-on-year in March, after increasing 4.0% in January-February, while growth in factory output accelerated to 7.7% from 5.9% in the first two months. Both figures exceeded analysts’ forecasts.

The increase in retail sales was driven by sharp double-digit increases in sales of home electronics and furniture, aided by the government’s consumer goods trade-in program.

However, the decline in China’s real estate sector continued to be a drag on overall growth.

Real estate investment fell 9.9% year-on-year in the first three months, widening from a 9.8% drop in January-February. New home prices in March were unchanged from the previous month.

Data released on Wednesday indicated that the economic recovery is still uneven, particularly as high unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures raise concerns about weak demand.

“A good GDP does not represent the overall economic health of an economy,” said Raymond Yeung, chief China economist at ANZ. “Deflation and youth unemployment remain major concerns,” he added.

Broad policy measures required

Moreover, analysts believe that the increase in China’s exports in March—driven by factories rushing shipments to beat Trump’s latest tariffs—could sharply reverse in the coming months as heavy US tariffs take effect.

Analysts expect further support measures in the coming months, following monetary easing steps taken late last year.

Earlier this month, Fitch downgraded China’s credit rating, citing rapidly growing public debt and risks to public finances, signaling a difficult balancing act for policymakers seeking to expand consumption in the face of declining trade.

“The current situation is similar to the negative shocks China has experienced in the past, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the global financial crisis in 2008,” said Yeung from ANZ.

“We see limited options for Chinese authorities other than a major fiscal expansion to counter the tariff shock,” he assessed.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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