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Digital euro sparks ‘sovereignty’ debate between EU governments and ECB

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A power struggle is unfolding between Europe’s most influential nations and the European Central Bank (ECB) over control of a new monetary tool that both sides fear could destabilize the continent’s banking system if mishandled.

At the heart of this dispute lies the digital euro, a virtual counterpart to euro coins and banknotes, as reported by POLITICO. The ECB has been developing this tool for years, envisioning a pan-European payment system that could rival American giants like Visa and Mastercard.

However, as the project neared implementation, controversy erupted. Certain EU governments, including France and Germany, contend that the ECB wields too much control over an issue of great importance: the amount of digital currency citizens will be permitted to hold in central bank-backed digital “wallets.”

While this may seem like a technical matter, the stakes are substantial. Policymakers and experts fear that if the cap is set too high, citizens could withdraw significant funds from traditional banks during a crisis, threatening the stability of the entire banking system.

Others argue that any restriction could infringe on personal financial freedoms and heighten fears of a “Big Brother” state, according to a diplomat who spoke with POLITICO.

This debate raises a fundamental question: Where does the ECB’s authority end, and that of EU member states begin? Thirty years after the ECB became the bloc’s chief monetary guardian, this dispute calls for a reassessment of the delicate balance between politics and central banking.

For some, it represents a necessary step back from the ECB’s excesses. In Frankfurt, however, officials perceive it as political encroachment into an area where it should not interfere. As one diplomat put it, this issue is about a “power struggle” rather than technical specifics.

Technocracy vs. democracy

Facebook’s 2019 attempt to launch the global cryptocurrency Libra shook the financial world, prompting over 100 central banks to explore the concept of a national digital currency.

While many of these initiatives have since faltered, the ECB remains committed, advocating for the digital euro as a transformative alternative to existing payment systems, aiming to lessen Europe’s dependence on dominant US and non-EU payment services, which currently handle around 70 percent of EU payments.

Yet the ECB’s progress has alarmed key member states, who view the project as overly “technocratic.” In Brussels, these nations are wielding their political influence to curb the ECB’s authority in ongoing negotiations over critical elements of the digital euro’s design.

Under the draft regulation being negotiated by lawmakers and governments, only the ECB would determine how much digital currency citizens can retain in their wallets.

Frankfurt views this as consistent with its vision of the digital euro as a reflection of Europe’s monetary sovereignty. Moreover, officials familiar with the discussions point out that the central bank is the sole authority permitted to adjust the money supply.

Germany, France, and the Netherlands oppose the initiative

At least nine countries disagree. Earlier this year, a group including Germany, France, and the Netherlands argued that Frankfurt’s exclusive monetary mandate should not be used to “limit their decision-making power,” according to meeting notes shared with POLITICO.

Diplomats also asserted “political supremacy” over the matter, emphasizing that the digital euro is not merely a monetary tool but a broader financial services issue that could reshape how Europeans make daily payments.

The EU treaty grants the ECB strong legal authority over money supply regulation, but only “qualified prerogatives” over banking supervision and payments.

The EU also explicitly allows the European Council and European Parliament to “take necessary measures for the use of the euro as the single currency” “without prejudice to the powers of the ECB.”

How will the ECB set the ‘holding cap’?

Some member states are also concerned about the affordability of a project designed by technocrats.

“You can create something in an ivory tower, but can it really be used in the market?” asked one Brussels-based executive familiar with the discussions.

Another concern is that allowing the ECB to set the cap would grant it exclusive control over a new tool with significant implications for banking stability.

The ECB argues that maintaining bank soundness is an essential part of its supervisory role, as banks are the main channel through which monetary policy is implemented.

However, many member states remain unconvinced. They argue that prudential responsibilities should be legislated and contend that protecting banks is part of their “patriotic duty.”

Concerns over ‘political pressure’ on the economy

Frankfurt, supported by the European Commission, warns that allowing governments to set the cap could subject the “independent” central bank to political pressure, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

Another European official fears that politicians could harm banks by yielding to public demands to raise the cap.

Ironically, many bankers are now siding with the ECB after it introduced several features aimed at mitigating risks to their business.

Yet member states have not backed down. One possible compromise is to let legislators set parameters within which the ECB would operate, while leaving the final decision to the bank.

Still, this approach may not guarantee the project’s success in reducing Europe’s reliance on the “overwhelming economic dominance” of US technology.

Ultimately, this initiative could become a liability if the ECB proceeds without adequate “democratic support.”

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German defense minister clears way for Scholz to lead SPD into elections

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Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has officially withdrawn as the Social Democratic Party’s (SPD) top candidate for the upcoming election, ending weeks of speculation about his potential to replace Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

In a video message released by the SPD on Thursday evening, Pistorius stated that the ongoing public debate had harmed the party’s unity. He informed the party leadership that he was unsuitable for the chancellorship.

“Olaf Scholz is a strong chancellor and the right candidate for the chancellorship,” Pistorius said, emphasizing that the party leader embodies “reason and common sense.” He further urged, “We now have a joint responsibility to bring this debate to an end because there is a lot at stake.”

When Scholz triggered early elections two weeks ago, many assumed he would automatically serve as the SPD’s candidate, given his role as the incumbent chancellor. However, polls revealed that Pistorius, who has been defense minister since early 2023, had become Germany’s most popular politician, sparking a de facto leadership race.

Scholz faces declining approval ratings

In contrast to Pistorius’ popularity, Scholz suffered from one of the lowest approval ratings among German politicians. Voters blamed him for months of political infighting that crippled the three-way “traffic light” coalition, which ultimately collapsed earlier this month.

Despite this, the SPD central leadership continued to back Scholz. Meanwhile, Pistorius faced increasing criticism for failing to address the leadership speculation. In his video message, Pistorius denied initiating the controversy but acknowledged that it had caused “growing uncertainty” within the party and “resentment” among voters.

He emphasized that the decision to step aside was his own and pledged his full support to Scholz, whom he described as an “extraordinary” chancellor. Pistorius also affirmed his commitment to campaigning for the SPD’s re-election.

Supporters react with disappointment

Pistorius’ withdrawal left many of his supporters disheartened. “I regret this development. The aim now must be to work together and achieve the best possible election result for the SPD,” said Joe Weingarten, an SPD member of parliament, in an interview with Der Spiegel.

Another MP, Johannes Arlt, remarked, “I would have preferred a different decision, but now we have one. It is good for the party and the country. We will now go into the federal election campaign united.”

A two-way race for the chancellorship

With Pistorius stepping down, the race for the chancellorship is now expected to be between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). Merz, a millionaire and former BlackRock Germany executive, has been polling ahead of Scholz since taking over the CDU leadership in 2022. Scholz’s supporters, however, remain optimistic that he can close the gap and outperform Merz in the upcoming election.

Pistorius: A proponent of German remilitarization

Known for his pragmatic approach to military affairs, Pistorius, 64, earned respect for his tough stance on Russia and advocacy for Germany’s rearmament. Following his appointment as defense minister in 2023, he made clear his opposition to the SPD’s historical reluctance to increase military spending.

Describing Vladimir Putin as “the despot in the Kremlin,” Pistorius warned that Germany must boost defense investments and ensure it is “combat ready.” His hardline approach on security and defense issues distinguished him within the SPD and cemented his popularity among voters.

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Poland urges EU to increase spending on eastern defence

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Poland, NATO’s largest defence spender, has urged its EU partners to bolster border defences with Russia and Belarus. The move aims to demonstrate a firm commitment to European security, particularly in light of Donald Trump’s influence on global defence policies.

Magdalena Sobkowiak-Czarnecka, the deputy minister responsible for preparations for Poland’s EU presidency, set to begin in January, told The Financial Times (FT) that the EU should invest in strengthening border fortifications and air surveillance systems under the Eastern Shield initiative.

“I think solidarity on the Eastern Shield could help show Trump that, as the EU, we understand what needs to be done for defence. If Trump says he will only work with countries that invest in defence, that’s fine for Poland, because we already spend 4% of GDP on defence. But what about the others? Funding the Eastern Shield would demonstrate the shared commitment of European countries,” Sobkowiak-Czarnecka explained.

The Eastern Shield, announced in May, comprises advanced fortifications and air surveillance systems along Poland’s borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This initiative is central to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s strategy to counter what he describes as “Russian aggression”, including the “hybrid war” linked to facilitating illegal migration from Belarus into Poland.

The Tusk government has allocated PLN 10 billion (€2.3 billion) for the Eastern Shield as part of broader defence expenditures. These investments will increase Poland’s defence spending from 4.1% of GDP in 2023 to 4.7% by 2025, the highest in NATO and more than double the alliance’s 2% GDP target. In contrast, some EU nations, such as Italy and Spain, have yet to meet this benchmark.

“All our partners must understand that the Eastern Shield is not solely about Poland but also about safeguarding the EU’s borders,” said Sobkowiak-Czarnecka.

Trump’s potential return to the presidency has heightened concerns across EU capitals, given his promises to impose tariffs on the bloc and signals of a potential resolution to the Ukraine conflict that could favor Russia.

Sobkowiak-Czarnecka underscored Poland’s commitment to enhancing EU security on multiple fronts, from increasing military equipment production to countering disinformation and securing energy supplies.

“This Polish presidency comes at a critical juncture. As an expert on Ukraine and one of the strongest U.S. allies in Europe, Poland will be a guiding light in these challenging times,” she concluded.

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European energy market in turmoil: Gas prices reach one-year high

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The European energy market faces significant challenges as natural gas prices soar to their highest levels in a year. A combination of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, Gazprom’s suspension of natural gas supplies to Austria, and colder-than-expected weather has placed substantial pressure on the market.

Industry representatives acknowledge that while sufficient gas supplies exist, the supply-demand balance remains fragile. Negative developments or geopolitical news could quickly trigger additional price surges.

On Thursday, Dutch TTF futures—a key European natural gas benchmark—rose to €48.8 per megawatt-hour (MWh) (equivalent to $538 per 1,000 cubic meters), a level last observed in November 2023. Since the end of the heating season on 31 March, prices have climbed by more than 150%.

The price surge accelerated on Wednesday after Ukraine targeted Russian territory using British-made Storm Shadow missiles. By the close of the trading day, prices had increased by 2.5%, reaching €46.8/MWh.

On the same day, the United States issued a warning based on intelligence reports, predicting a major air strike in the region. Following this warning, many Western countries evacuated their embassies in Kyiv.

Adding to the tensions, the Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of carrying nuclear payloads. This event aligns with speculation about changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine and the US’s authorization for Ukraine to target Russian territory with long-range missiles.

While liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand in Asia remains low, traders are turning their focus to Europe to capitalize on surging prices, according to Bloomberg.

Despite the increased volatility, Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that gas storage facilities across Europe are 90% full. However, the heating season, combined with freezing temperatures in Northern Europe, has amplified concerns about market stability.

Torgrim Reitan, Equinor’s Chief Financial Officer, emphasized that the market’s fragile balance increases the influence of external factors on pricing dynamics.

The state of pipeline gas supplies from Russia is another major concern. On 16 November, Gazprom halted deliveries to Austria’s OMV, citing unresolved payment issues. The company is attempting to recover part of a €230 million arbitration judgment through this suspension.

Despite this, Gazprom continues to supply 42.4 million cubic meters of gas daily to Europe via Ukraine. However, OMV cannot access these supplies and must turn to other sources, such as Slovakia, to meet Austria’s energy needs. According to OMV officials, Austria’s energy requirements are fully covered by alternative suppliers.

Jon Treacy, editor of the investment newsletter Fuller Treacy Money, noted that although Austria maintains official neutrality, most of OMV’s customers are NATO members. Treacy added that Russia’s “long, cold winter” strategy aims to exert pressure on regions beyond Ukraine over the long term.

Market analysts warn that transit through Ukraine—a minor contributor to the European Union’s total gas imports—could be entirely cut off by January 2024. Such a development would further strain an already delicate market, potentially driving prices even higher.

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