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Dope for ailing Intel: $3.5bn chip tender from Pentagon

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Intel has won a federal grant of up to $3.5 billion to produce semiconductors for the Pentagon as part of a classified program called “Secure Enclave.” The agreement, which involves U.S. government officials, is aimed at bolstering the production of chips for military and intelligence purposes, according to sources familiar with the deal.

The program is set to cover multiple U.S. states, including a key manufacturing facility in Arizona, Bloomberg reported. While Intel was seen as the frontrunner for the contract, there has been criticism from other chipmakers and concerns in Washington about relying too heavily on one company. Additionally, disputes over funding have been a point of contention.

Major funding amid national semiconductor push

The grant is expected to be announced as early as next week and is part of the broader $52 billion in incentives allocated under the CHIPS and Science Act, a law enacted by President Joe Biden in 2022 to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry and reduce reliance on Asian manufacturers.

This new funding is in addition to the $8.5 billion in grants and $11 billion in loans Intel received earlier this year under the same program. The company is currently in talks to secure further incentives to support its facilities in Arizona, Ohio, New Mexico, and Oregon. However, like other companies benefiting from the CHIPS Act, Intel has yet to receive any of these funds, and the current award is still considered provisional.

Pentagon’s confidence in Intel despite struggles

Despite Intel’s recent financial difficulties, including a disappointing earnings report and lower revenue forecasts that caused its stock to drop, the U.S. government remains confident in the company’s ability to meet its semiconductor needs. Sources say Intel is reassessing its production targets but is more likely to prioritize its U.S. facilities, particularly in Arizona and Ohio, over international projects.

The Pentagon has emphasized the importance of sourcing advanced semiconductors from a U.S. company, and Intel remains the only domestic manufacturer of cutting-edge processors. Rival manufacturers, such as Taiwan’s TSMC and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics, are also building facilities in the U.S. under the CHIPS Act, but their primary operations remain overseas.

Dependency on TSMC and foreign manufacturers

Intel still relies on TSMC for the production of some of its most advanced processors, even as it moves to establish domestic manufacturing capabilities. Discussions in Washington about potentially sourcing chips from foreign manufacturers’ U.S.-based facilities remain ongoing, but these talks are separate from the Secure Enclave program.

It remains unclear which specific chips Intel will produce under the Pentagon contract. While Intel has expressed interest in securing clients like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), it has struggled to convince them to use its manufacturing services. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has urged companies like Nvidia and Microsoft to consider Intel’s upcoming facility in Ohio, though no large orders have yet materialized.

Funding disputes and delays

The Secure Enclave program was initially set to receive $2.5 billion in funding from the Pentagon, but that commitment was withdrawn in February. The Department of Commerce, already overseeing $1 billion in funding, was left to shoulder the full cost. At one point, officials considered integrating Secure Enclave with other commercial production incentives for Intel, but ultimately decided to treat it as a separate initiative.

The delay in funding has not only affected Intel but also other U.S. companies. A planned commercial R&D program was scrapped, forcing the Commerce Department to reject a $4 billion funding request from Applied Materials for a project in Silicon Valley. Efforts to add $3 billion to the CHIPS Act to address these gaps have stalled in Congress.

Intel faces growing pressure

Intel’s struggles raise questions about the U.S. government’s ability to meet its semiconductor goals, including securing a reliable supply of advanced chips for the Pentagon and producing 20% of the world’s cutting-edge processors by 2030. The company has faced declining sales, financial strain, and a loss of market value, prompting its board to consider drastic measures such as splitting its manufacturing division or scaling back global operations.

The delays in government funding have further frustrated Intel, which has resisted providing some of the information requested by U.S. officials seeking to assess the viability of its manufacturing roadmap. The company’s stock hit a historic low in August after a surprise quarterly loss, leading to a credit rating downgrade and the announcement of up to 15,000 job cuts. These developments have sparked concern in Congress, as Intel was seen as a key player in rebuilding the U.S. semiconductor workforce.

Lagging behind in AI market

Despite efforts to catch up, Intel continues to trail rivals Nvidia and AMD in the rapidly growing AI chip market. CEO Pat Gelsinger has established an AI Acceleration Office to coordinate efforts across Intel’s various business units, but the company’s AI sales still lag far behind competitors. Intel expects to generate $500 million in sales from its latest AI chips this year, compared to Nvidia’s tens of billions in revenue from GPUs.

Intel’s challenges have been compounded by significant executive departures, widespread layoffs, and plummeting market capitalization. In stark contrast to Nvidia, which added $1.4 trillion to its market cap in 2023, Intel’s valuation has fallen to $83 billion, down $70 billion over the past year.

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Fed cuts interest rates, dollar surges to two-year high

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The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by a quarter percentage point but signaled a slower pace of easing next year. This move drove the U.S. dollar to its highest level in two years and triggered a sell-off in both domestic and international stock markets.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted on Wednesday to lower the benchmark interest rate to 4.25–4.5%, marking the third consecutive cut. The lone dissenting vote came from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who favored maintaining the current rates.

Officials highlighted concerns about persistent inflation, projecting fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously expected. Reflecting these worries, policymakers also raised their inflation forecasts for the coming year. Following the announcement, Fed Chair Jay Powell remarked that the current policy settings were “significantly less restrictive,” indicating the Fed’s inclination to adopt a more cautious approach to further easing.

“This decision was a ‘closer call’ than prior meetings,” Powell noted, emphasizing that inflation trends remain “sideways” while risks to the labor market are “diminishing.”

Aditya Bhave, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America, described the Fed’s message as “unabashedly hawkish.” He pointed to the shift in officials’ 2025 forecasts, which now anticipate just two quarter-point rate cuts instead of three, calling it a “wholesale shift.”

JPMorgan Chase, a key player in U.S. bond markets, noted that money markets are pricing in only a 0.31 percentage point rate cut in 2025. This outlook, significantly tighter than the bank’s earlier 0.75-point forecast, underscores the magnitude of the Fed’s policy shift.

The decision triggered a sharp sell-off on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 falling 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 3.6%. High-profile winners of the 2024 rally were hit hard, including: Tesla, down 8.3%; Meta (Facebook’s parent company), down 3.6%; Amazon, down 4.6%.

Smaller companies, often seen as more sensitive to US economic fluctuations, also suffered. The Russell 2000 index declined 4.4%.

In Asia, stocks fell in early Thursday trading. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan dropped 1.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Meanwhile, U.S. government bond prices fell, driving the yield on two-year Treasuries—sensitive to Fed policy—up by 0.11 percentage points to 4.35%.

The U.S. dollar surged 1.2% against a basket of six major currencies, reaching its strongest level since November 2022. According to Wells Fargo senior economist Mike Pugliese, the currency had already been rising on expectations of inflationary pressures following Donald Trump’s election victory last month. However, Wednesday’s Fed decision “poured more petrol on the fire.”

The South Korean won dropped to a 15-year low against the dollar, while the Japanese yen weakened 0.5%.

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Amazon pledges $1 billion to Trump inauguration fund

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Amazon confirmed on Thursday that it will contribute $1 million to Donald Trump’s inauguration fund, a move mirroring similar actions by other major tech companies, including Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram. Amazon also plans to broadcast Trump’s inauguration via its Prime Video service.

This announcement comes as major tech executives seek to establish ties with the incoming U.S. president, despite Trump’s longstanding criticisms of Big Tech. Trump has frequently accused technology companies of censorship and bias against conservative media.

Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and CEO, is reportedly planning to meet Trump at his Mar-a-Lago resort next week, according to The Wall Street Journal, which first reported Amazon’s donation. Similarly, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Apple CEO Tim Cook have expressed their congratulations to Trump since his election victory in November.

Trump’s relationship with Amazon has been fraught with challenges. During his first term, he accused the company of undercutting competition and criticized its tax policies. In 2018, Trump ordered a review of U.S. Postal Service package pricing, claiming the agency acted as Amazon’s “courier.”

Apple, meanwhile, faces potential risks from Trump’s proposed tariff policies, which could disrupt critical supply chains in China. However, during Trump’s first term, Cook secured exemptions for certain Apple products.

Meta’s CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, and other tech leaders have also engaged with Trump. According to The Information, Zuckerberg dined with Trump after the election. Pichai is also expected to meet Trump this week.

While Trump scrutinized Big Tech during his presidency, Amazon now faces mounting regulatory pressure under President Joe Biden. The U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC), led by Lina Khan, has been investigating Amazon for alleged monopoly practices, with several states filing lawsuits last year. The FTC is also examining major cloud service providers, including Amazon, over partnerships in artificial intelligence.

Despite earlier conflicts, Bezos recently praised Trump for his “tremendous grace and courage under real fire” in a post on X (formerly Twitter) following an assassination attempt. Bezos, who also owns The Washington Post, reportedly prevented the newspaper from endorsing Trump’s Democratic opponent Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.

Speculation about a tacit agreement between Bezos and Trump has surfaced, allegedly tied to Blue Origin, Bezos’s rocket company competing with Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

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Investors poured $140 billion into U.S. equities following Trump’s victory

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Nearly $140 billion has flowed into U.S. equity funds since last month’s election, as investors anticipate Donald Trump’s administration will implement sweeping tax cuts and regulatory reforms.

According to the Financial Times (FT), which cites data from EPFR, U.S. equity funds have seen inflows totaling $139.5 billion since Trump’s victory on November 5. This surge in investment made November the busiest month for equity inflows since records began in 2000.

The massive influx of funds has driven major U.S. stock indexes to a series of record highs, as investors appeared to shrug off concerns about potential economic risks, including inflation and its implications for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

“The growth agenda that Trump has put on the table is being fully embraced,” said Dec Mullarkey, Chief Executive of SLC Management. He added that Trump’s picks for top administration posts have been seen as “very market friendly.”

Trump has promised to fill his administration with financial experts, including Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, and Paul Atkins, a cryptocurrency advocate, as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

The president-elect has outlined a pro-growth agenda, emphasizing reduced taxes, deregulation, and economic expansion. These proposals have spurred optimism among investors, fueling a rally in the market.

The S&P 500, Wall Street’s primary stock market indicator, has risen 5.3% since Election Day, bringing its total gains for the year to 28%. Smaller companies, which are often seen as more responsive to changes in the U.S. economy, have outperformed larger firms during this period. The Russell 2000 index recently hit a record high for the first time in three years.

While U.S. equity funds have enjoyed record inflows, other global markets have experienced outflows emerging market funds have seen net withdrawals of $8 billion, with China-focused funds accounting for $4 billion; funds investing in Western Europe have lost $14 billion; and Japan-focused funds have seen outflows of approximately $6 billion.

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