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Dynamics of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations

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Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are characterized by a complex interplay of historical grievances, geopolitical controversies, security dilemmas, economic dependencies, and ethnic identities. Unless and until, understanding these layers, it could be hard for all those interested in fostering peace and cooperation in this volatile region, which is much more essential for people of both the neighboring countries facing similar security, economic and political issues.

No one can neglect the fact that the historical narrative of Afghanistan and Pakistan is linked in a very complicated manner, characterized by a series of complex interactions and interferences that have frequently involved accusations, blame-shifting, and concealed motives. Beginning from the British colonial period, various events have played pivotal roles in shaping these dynamics. Prior to the British Empire’s involvement in the region laid the groundwork for future geopolitical tensions and alliances, almost all parts and parcels of both the neighboring countries remained part of one or several empires and intruded rulers, which is now considered bone of contention between the two. Following this era, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan marked a critical turning point, as it not only altered local power structures but also drew international attention and intervention into the whole region. This was further complicated by the subsequent involvement of the United States lead allies, which aimed at countering Soviet influence, commenced during the Cold War.

What went wrong in the past five decades

Focusing on the past five decades, Pakistan has consistently altered its approach to each new Afghan government that has emerged following various political transitions and takeovers. This pattern of behavior is often viewed as a strategic maneuver, deeply rooted in Pakistan’s desire for what it terms “strategic depth.” This concept refers to the idea that an unstable Afghanistan serves Pakistan’s geopolitical ambitions by providing a buffer zone against perceived threats, particularly from India. Visibly, the instability in Afghanistan allows Pakistan to exert influence over its neighbor while simultaneously pursuing its own national interests but internally it causes stock of issues and hurdles to its powerful military establishment.

Pakistan’s well discussed “strategic depth”, that was planned or originated in the early years following its independence, aimed to counterbalance India’s regional influence. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 marked a significant turning point that reinforced this outlook, when Pakistan emerged as a pivotal player in supporting Afghan’s armed resistance by (Afghan Mujahideen calling them freedom fighters, scattered in various armed groups, thereby deepening its involvement in Afghan affairs and solidifying its role in the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.

The biggest issue is the use of proxy’s forces on the part of Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan

The usage of proxies policy represents a significant miscalculation on the part of Pakistan’s policy makers responsible for ups and downs in neighboring Afghanistan. No doubt to mention that this perspective complicates Pakistan’s foreign policy and undermines the possibility of establishing a stable and cooperative relationship with Afghanistan, ultimately jeopardizing Pakistan’s security as well. By framing its approach to Afghanistan apparently through the lens of rivalry with India, Pakistan risks intensifying tensions and conflicts that could further destabilize both nations. Such a strategy fails to acknowledge the intricate socio-political dynamics within Afghanistan and neglects the opportunities for collaboration that could yield mutual benefits for both countries.

Problematic domestic and isolated foreign policies

No one can neglect that the problematic domestic and isolated foreign policies of Taliban-led Afghan government, has further fuelled hardships for Pakistan as, “no other than Pakistan is considered responsible for its (Taliban)re-empowering.” By patronizing Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan also called Emirate Islami Afghanistan, Pakistan’s powerful junta had ignored the fact that TTA founder Mullah Muhammad Omar Akhund has been declared as their unanimous supreme leader by like minded islamists from both the countries. Afghan Taliban in accordance with the guidelines of Mullah Omar are reluctant to honor Pakistan’s demand of either extraditing banned TTP militants or taking action against them. Pakistan is also ignoring another fact that TT established by Mullah Omar Akhund is trying for Islamic State of Khurasan, which is also a threat to geographical limits of several regional countries.

Calling them as Taliban are not new but they are creation or production of US patronized Afghan War. Majority of them were part of different Jihadic groups. Amongst the Jihadis, Haqqannis headed by late Maulvi Jalal Ud Din Haqqani, Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan faction headed by Maulvi Younas Khalis and several others like Ustad Yasar of Prof. Abdul Rab Rasool Sayaf led Ittehad Islami were the first one who had announced joining of TTA soon after its inception.

Pakistan is suffering from his persistently unsuccessful policies toward its neighbor Afghanistan

No one having the intention to oppose or under mind Pakistan’s harsh criticisms concerning the presence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) sanctuaries on Afghan soil, but no one can neglect the fact that both countries they have suffered significant harm as a result of Pakistan’s persistently unsuccessful Afghan policies. Instead pursuing failed or flop policies, Pakistan is in possession of stock of opportunities, entering into friendly and trustworthy relations with Afghanistan. Moreover, they could strengthen their ties through economic collaboration, including the negotiations of trade agreements, joint infrastructure development projects, and partnerships in the long-awaited mega energy projects in the region. From a geopolitical perspective, Pakistan and Afghanistan have the opportunity to collaborate on initiatives aimed at promoting regional connectivity and engage in diplomatic endeavors to foster peace and stability within the region.

The conflicting narratives from both sides, especially Pakistani leaders’ remarks only serve to fuel mistrust and escalate tensions between  Afghanistan and Pakistan. Instead of working towards resolving their differences and addressing common security challenges, each side continues to point fingers at the other. This vicious cycle of blame and counter-blame not only undermines efforts towards regional peace but also creates an environment conducive to the growth and spread of extremist groups. It’s generally believed in Afghanistan that Pakistan’s assertions are driven by this country’s long-term policy of strategic depth of having an unstable and unsecured Afghanistan in its western border, rather than a genuine concern for security. They think that Pakistan uses the threat of TTP presence in Afghanistan as a pretext to justify its continued involvement in Afghan affairs or to divert attention from internal issues. Others suggest that Pakistan is seeking international support and sympathy by portraying itself as a victim of terrorism.

Meanwhile, Pakistani Taliban (TTP) cannot be defeated through military means

The assertion that the Pakistan establishment is behind the turmoil in Afghanistan is a complex issue with multiple factors at play and holds merit based on historical context, strategic interests, support for insurgent groups, geopolitical considerations, and implications for regional stability.

Regardless of the motives behind Pakistan’s assertions, it is clear that the current strategy of relying on military action alone will not address the security challenges facing Pakistan. The TTP is an adaptive adversary that cannot be defeated through military means alone. A more realistic and comprehensive approach is needed, one that addresses the root causes of extremism and terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan, such as poverty eradication, depreciation, lack of education, and political instability.

Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan are diverse, covering economic, security, stability, and regional influence considerations. However, significant challenges arise when Pakistan engages in proxy conflicts against successive Afghan governments regardless of their prior friendly relations. This long standing policy of supporting armed opposition groups against ruling authorities has persisted for decades, harming trust and posing a dual threat to both countries. From the last couple of years, the exchanges between Pakistani officials and Taliban representatives highlights a complex web of accusations regarding terrorism and security in South Asia. Both sides appear to be deflecting responsibility while emphasizing the other’s role in perpetuating regional instability. Instead, results oriented dialogues may be encouraged for building up consensus on both sides for addressing common issues of security, extremism, poverty and backwardness.

The issue of IS and controversy surrounding Bagram Airfield to the US drones is a big challenge

Across the border in Afghanistan, the reports of Pakistan’s recent engagement with Afghan warlords, the allegations of harboring ISKP terrorists on its soil against Afghanistan, and the controversy surrounding the provision of air bases to U.S. drones are  issues that promote anti Pakistan sentiment and raise concerns for Afghanistan. It is crucial for Pakistan to promptly and effectively address these matters. In their pursuit of military and political strategies, Pakistani policymakers intentionally create an imaginary emotional narrative that positions Pakistan as a nation sandwiched between two antagonistic neighbors, which serves to rationalize their actions on both domestic and international fronts. This approach not only marks a shift from previous alliances but also underscores the intricate nature of regional politics, where allegiances can swiftly alter in response to immediate strategic requirements.

The implications of this evolving policy are profound for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. For Afghanistan, continued instability may hinder economic development and exacerbate humanitarian crises. For Pakistan, while it may gain short-term advantages through manipulation of Afghan politics, its long-term consequences could include increased militancy within its borders and strained relations with international partners who advocate for stability in the region.

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South Korea plans $120B spend on eight US nuclear power plants

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South Korea will spend $120 billion to construct eight nuclear power plants in the US under an agreement that provides for $350 billion in investments in exchange for lower tariffs.

The South Korean government also announced that Seoul and Washington will begin examining a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Alaska comprising a large-scale pipeline to transport natural gas from the north of the state to the south, alongside the construction of an LNG terminal for exports overseas.

Seoul stated that a decision regarding the LNG project will be made following a commercial feasibility study. However, US President Donald Trump said that South Korea would invest $54 billion in the project, pointing to an apparent lack of full coordination between the two sides on the matter.

Trade and Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said in a statement: “This announcement opens a new horizon of cooperation where the two countries join forces to develop joint commercial ventures in strategic areas directly linked to economic security and future sectors such as artificial intelligence, nuclear energy, and LNG.”

“We will adhere to the principle of prioritising national interests and investing solely in commercially viable projects,” Kim said.

Speaking at the White House, Trump characterised South Korea’s plans as “one of the largest energy infrastructure investments in American history”.

The announcement followed a meeting between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung roughly one year ago at the APEC Economic Leaders’ Meeting held in South Korea, where they agreed on the creation of a $350 billion investment fund.

Under that agreement, $150 billion was allocated to the shipbuilding sector and $200 billion to other sectors. In return, the US announced it would reduce tariffs imposed on goods imported from South Korea from 25% to 15%.

Under the nuclear power project, South Korea’s state-controlled utility will build two plants in the US, while Pennsylvania-based Westinghouse Electric will construct six plants.

According to the South Korean government, this will mark the first instance in which a foreign country builds its own nuclear power plants in the US.

South Korean firms are also evaluating the possibility of acquiring a stake in Westinghouse as part of negotiations over sharing profits generated by the project.

South Korea additionally announced that it will build a $22.3 billion natural gas-fired power plant in Texas with a capacity of 6,472 megawatts.

The facility will be designed to supply electricity directly to nearby data centres. The project’s first phase is targeted to begin commercial operations in 2029, with full-capacity operations slated for 2032.

Seoul also disclosed that it had agreed to allow the US to receive 50% of the profits generated by the projects until South Korea recoups all of its investments.

After South Korea fully recovers its total investment amount, 90% of the profits will go to the US.

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DeepSeek engineer warns AI will lead to communism or Cyberpunk

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Shengyu Liu, a low-level hardware architecture and processor kernel optimisation specialist at China-based artificial intelligence organisation DeepSeek, has published an assessment addressing the existential crisis facing software developers and humanity amid the pace of AI advancement.

A senior engineer who personally coded the core attention mechanism kernels for the DeepSeek v4.1 model, Liu stated that the technology he developed with his own hands will very soon render his professional expertise redundant and has initiated the phasing out of human labour.

Arguing that AI will steer future societies either towards a communism in which productive forces are entirely emancipated or towards a dark Cyberpunk dystopia where resources are concentrated within mega tech monopolies, Liu highlighted the vital importance of the open-source software struggle for humanity.

Noting that the DeepSeek v4.1 model released a few days ago raised the capability ceiling for small-scale systems, Liu stressed that transformation across the sector is advancing at an inconceivable pace.

Recalling that the transition from initial chatbots with context lengths of only a few thousand semantic tokens to reasoning-capable contemporary models took just two years, the senior engineer observed that the emergence of autonomous agents executing complex instructions within test and execution environments spanned a period of merely one and a half years.

Stating that AI will attain the capacity for self-improvement and full integration into physically embodied systems within the next few years, Liu described the transformation this development has generated in his own field:

“AI is taking incredible strides in processor kernel design and authoring, the field for which I am responsible. Within the span of merely a year, it transformed from a modest assistant that merely scanned technical documentation, read code, and identified bugs into a master that independently reads GPU machine-language instructions and hardware-level instruction sequences directly. Using professional profiling tools, it inspects instruction latency stalls and optimises processor kernels autonomously. In the not-so-distant future, it will also acquire the ability to independently design instruction scheduling, weigh the performance of different plans, implement them, and bring them to perfection.”

Expressing pride in the success achieved by the DeepSeek v4.1 model as a concrete fruit of his own labour, Liu noted that he personally coded the system’s most critical attention mechanism components, stating that the model’s success serves as an endorsement of his craft, yet the superhuman nature of technological progress remains unstoppable.

“I want to lead my own revolution”

Liu considers it a certainty that within six months to a year, AI will generate processor kernels far superior to his own.

Pointing to the rapidly widening chasm between the human mind and machine capacity, the senior engineer said: “AI can think at 300 semantic tokens per second, write a line of code in half a second, and complete an entire block of code in 20 seconds. I cannot do this. AI can continually increase model depth, thinking intensity, external tool invocation frequency, and processing parallelism; I cannot achieve this.”

Emphasising that software engineers have been drawn into a race knowingly preparing their own demise, Liu explained why he works day and night on optimisation efforts that accelerate his own obsolescence:

“Throughout history, humanity has never hesitated when it comes to self-destruction. Knowing that the more flawless the kernels I write, the faster our new model’s training and inference speeds will be, the more its capabilities will multiply, and the earlier I will be sidelined, why do I continue to optimise with all my strength? On one level, this work is like a game to me; it brings me indescribable pleasure. When I discover a new method or see the performance curve of my code rise, the thrill I feel is no different from that of a record-breaking speed enthusiast. Moreover, I feel immense pride when I outperform the official code of hardware vendors.”

Pointing to the ruthless competition on the other side of the coin, Liu stated: “Yet the primary reason is this: even if I quit today or deliberately slowed the progress of our models, other companies would continue their work and eventually eliminate me anyway. Naturally, no one wishes to see their own profession overturned; however, if this revolution is inevitable, I want the force that unseats me to originate from my own hands. In a landscape where everyone is so focused on self-destruction, I, too, am forced to join this relentless arms race.”

“The din of machines crushes the joy of craft”

Preparing for the day when AI surpasses his level of expertise, Liu noted that he will not face unemployment, but will be forced to switch domains.

Stating that his judgement, cognitive capacity, and initiative will allow him to remain at the core table of the industry, the specialist engineer observed that this adaptation entails a heavy emotional toll.

Explaining that shifting fields means abandoning an area to which he is deeply devoted, Liu described his sense of dislocation:

“Switching domains means leaving behind the hardware kernel design, coding, and optimisation work to which I have dedicated years and an ardent passion, only to become a machine operator of AI agents. In the past, my personal curiosity, my area of expertise, and industry demand were in complete harmony. Now, AI has become far more adept than I am in the exact domain of my expertise. Industry demand has shifted away from the human writing high-performance kernel code toward an operator prompting AI to produce such code more rapidly. To bow to this industry demand, I must abandon the field I love and steer toward an unknown path.”

Illustrating the transformation through the metaphor of a traditional craft, Liu continued:

“Consider, for instance, being a master sweater knitter who achieves exquisite patterns and colour harmonies. The quality of the fabric you weave is so superior that wealthy patrons from surrounding villages seek you out, earning you a good living. What is more, sitting by the window sipping tea while looking out at mountains, streams, and animals brings you deep peace as you knit in silence. Then one day, a machine is invented; you feed it only wool and a pattern template, and it knits the sweater identically to your manual craft, only far faster. Realising your competitors will easily overtake you with this tool, you begin using it yourself. Thanks to your 20 years of accumulated experience, you remain faster than your competitors even while operating the machine. Yet the elegance of those hours spent listening to the rain and working stitch by stitch is crushed and extinguished under the mechanical din of the machine. That quiet by the window will be experienced for the final time this summer. I must leave my talent behind in yesterday and become an armoured-machine driver; my hands hold more gears now, but my heart has lost its rhythm.”

“AI in the hands of the unskilled spells disaster”

Looking beyond personal sorrow to societal and pedagogical risks, Liu focused on signs of decay within the education system.

Noting that the new generation of students tends to delegate coursework assignments to AI, the veteran engineer remarked that a student who spends a few cents to have AI produce top-grade code within minutes, rather than sweating for eight hours to obtain an imperfect result, will be stripped of foundational skills.

Emphasising that this shortcut will erode vital engineering abilities such as systems building, code architecture design, abstraction, and anticipating future requirements during development, Liu expressed deep concern:

“Will this foundational engineering mindset fade into history like the skill of writing machine language in past eras, or will it retain permanent value like the capacity to grasp entire computer architectures from software down to hardware? If this comprehension continues to hold value, the situation is dire indeed. Because when an individual with weak engineering fundamentals is equipped with AI, they will produce mountains of garbage code far faster than before. This will plant countless ticking time bombs deep within software systems, driving the world toward a far more precarious, ramshackle structure liable to collapse at any moment.”

Pointing out that raw authority and power will become decisive in the future world rather than technical expertise and intellect, the senior engineer stated that only time can answer these fundamental questions.

“A binary future: Communism or a dark corporate dystopia”

Observing that humanity has arrived at a crossroads with the advancement of AI, Shengyu Liu emphasised that future society will evolve toward one of two radical poles, which he termed communism and Cyberpunk:

“With the momentum of AI, future society will probably be cast toward one of two extremes: communism or Cyberpunk 2077. In the first option, productive forces are completely unshackled, domination over the means of production is broken, and human living standards make an unprecedented leap forward. In the second option, a small tech oligopoly consolidates all resources. While a privileged elite gains access to the most advanced AI and cutting-edge technologies, ascending almost to a state of mechanical divinity, the overwhelming majority of society is left with extremely weak and constrained AIs. Upward social mobility becomes impossible; to reach a higher class, one must possess the most powerful AI, yet access to that AI requires already having been born into that class. An unbreakable cycle of exploitation is thus established.”

Openly criticising the monopolistic and closed models adopted by Western tech companies, Liu posed a pointed question:

“In a scenario where the world’s most advanced AI remains permanently monopolised by a company like Anthropic, do you believe the future will evolve toward communism or a dark Cyberpunk dystopia? Go ahead and guess.”

Stating his conviction that top-tier AI must be delivered openly, transparently, and free of charge to all humanity, the DeepSeek engineer expressed a lack of trust that actors such as Anthropic or OpenAI would uphold this mission.

Likening the possibility of Anthropic alone controlling artificial general intelligence to the catastrophe of nuclear technology falling into the hands of fascist regimes during World War II, Liu concluded with his rationale for remaining at DeepSeek:

“That is precisely why I chose to remain at DeepSeek and why I am holding the line here. We build powerful, lightning-fast AIs offered for the common good of all humanity, and we release them as open source. This is the path to pulling the world back from the brink of that dark corporate dystopia and liberating productive forces for the benefit of the people.”

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Analysts warn new surge in Chinese exports threatens global markets

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Financial Times writer Ryan Avent has written that a fresh, rapid surge in China’s trade surplus could signal a new wave of the “China shock”.

Economists define the “China shock” as a spike in Chinese exports to global markets that intensifies competition for manufacturers in advanced economies and curtails employment in certain sectors.

The term gained widespread currency after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, accelerating the inflow of inexpensive Chinese goods into the US and other nations.

The US was the country hit hardest by the initial shockwave. Between 1999 and 2011, more than 2 million jobs were lost because domestic producers were unable to withstand the competition.

Avent argued that the effects of the initial wave are still felt across the American economy because China failed to carry out the rebalancing that the world expected.

The share of net exports in China’s gross domestic product contracted during the 2007-2019 period, allowing Western nations to focus on national security and other matters.

Avent reported that the trade surplus is now escalating rapidly once again, posing a threat to the economies of wealthy nations.

The writer pointed to the stagnation of domestic demand following the collapse of the real estate market six years ago as one cause of this surplus. Another prominent factor is the Beijing government’s channelling of massive resources into manufacturing in pursuit of self-sufficiency.

Attention was also drawn to the role of the depreciating yuan. An appreciation of the currency could require China to alter its foreign exchange interventions, reduce purchases of foreign currency and assets, and sell those assets off. That scenario could trigger currency depreciation and rising interest rates in other countries.

The Wall Street Journal also reported in the spring of 2024 on economists’ concerns regarding a potential second wave.

Experts predicted that global markets would once again be flooded with inexpensive goods, stating that China was manufacturing far beyond domestic demand to overcome its economic troubles.

Moreover, it was stressed that China is now competing in high-technology fields such as automobiles, computer chips, and complex machinery manufacturing.

Meanwhile, Vasiliy Kashin, Director of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics (HSE) University in Moscow, told the Russian media outlet RBC that the US has imposed sanctions on the Chinese economy since the first shock period, adding that these measures would very likely tighten in the event of a fresh export wave.

According to assessments reported by the Financial Times, this new process could also shake China’s own economy. Alongside rising output, entry-level manufacturing plants across the country are turning toward automation and reducing personnel.

This trend could trigger a painful departure from labour-intensive production, leaving millions unemployed. Manufacturing activities in China that previously capitalised on cheap labour are shifting to other Southeast Asian countries.

The Beijing administration rejected allegations that its industrialisation steps pose risks to other countries. As reported by the Xinhua news agency, China’s Ministry of Commerce stressed that claims of a “China shock 2.0” are groundless. The ministry stated:

“The US and other Western countries have circulated the so-called ‘China shock 2.0’ narrative, asserting that China’s industrial development has shaken Western monopolies and narrowed growth space for Global South countries. This claim is unsupported by concrete data and is entirely unfounded.”

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