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Dynamics of Afghanistan-Pakistan relations

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Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are characterized by a complex interplay of historical grievances, geopolitical controversies, security dilemmas, economic dependencies, and ethnic identities. Unless and until, understanding these layers, it could be hard for all those interested in fostering peace and cooperation in this volatile region, which is much more essential for people of both the neighboring countries facing similar security, economic and political issues.

No one can neglect the fact that the historical narrative of Afghanistan and Pakistan is linked in a very complicated manner, characterized by a series of complex interactions and interferences that have frequently involved accusations, blame-shifting, and concealed motives. Beginning from the British colonial period, various events have played pivotal roles in shaping these dynamics. Prior to the British Empire’s involvement in the region laid the groundwork for future geopolitical tensions and alliances, almost all parts and parcels of both the neighboring countries remained part of one or several empires and intruded rulers, which is now considered bone of contention between the two. Following this era, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan marked a critical turning point, as it not only altered local power structures but also drew international attention and intervention into the whole region. This was further complicated by the subsequent involvement of the United States lead allies, which aimed at countering Soviet influence, commenced during the Cold War.

What went wrong in the past five decades

Focusing on the past five decades, Pakistan has consistently altered its approach to each new Afghan government that has emerged following various political transitions and takeovers. This pattern of behavior is often viewed as a strategic maneuver, deeply rooted in Pakistan’s desire for what it terms “strategic depth.” This concept refers to the idea that an unstable Afghanistan serves Pakistan’s geopolitical ambitions by providing a buffer zone against perceived threats, particularly from India. Visibly, the instability in Afghanistan allows Pakistan to exert influence over its neighbor while simultaneously pursuing its own national interests but internally it causes stock of issues and hurdles to its powerful military establishment.

Pakistan’s well discussed “strategic depth”, that was planned or originated in the early years following its independence, aimed to counterbalance India’s regional influence. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 marked a significant turning point that reinforced this outlook, when Pakistan emerged as a pivotal player in supporting Afghan’s armed resistance by (Afghan Mujahideen calling them freedom fighters, scattered in various armed groups, thereby deepening its involvement in Afghan affairs and solidifying its role in the geopolitical dynamics of South Asia.

The biggest issue is the use of proxy’s forces on the part of Pakistan’s policy toward Afghanistan

The usage of proxies policy represents a significant miscalculation on the part of Pakistan’s policy makers responsible for ups and downs in neighboring Afghanistan. No doubt to mention that this perspective complicates Pakistan’s foreign policy and undermines the possibility of establishing a stable and cooperative relationship with Afghanistan, ultimately jeopardizing Pakistan’s security as well. By framing its approach to Afghanistan apparently through the lens of rivalry with India, Pakistan risks intensifying tensions and conflicts that could further destabilize both nations. Such a strategy fails to acknowledge the intricate socio-political dynamics within Afghanistan and neglects the opportunities for collaboration that could yield mutual benefits for both countries.

Problematic domestic and isolated foreign policies

No one can neglect that the problematic domestic and isolated foreign policies of Taliban-led Afghan government, has further fuelled hardships for Pakistan as, “no other than Pakistan is considered responsible for its (Taliban)re-empowering.” By patronizing Tehrik Taliban Afghanistan also called Emirate Islami Afghanistan, Pakistan’s powerful junta had ignored the fact that TTA founder Mullah Muhammad Omar Akhund has been declared as their unanimous supreme leader by like minded islamists from both the countries. Afghan Taliban in accordance with the guidelines of Mullah Omar are reluctant to honor Pakistan’s demand of either extraditing banned TTP militants or taking action against them. Pakistan is also ignoring another fact that TT established by Mullah Omar Akhund is trying for Islamic State of Khurasan, which is also a threat to geographical limits of several regional countries.

Calling them as Taliban are not new but they are creation or production of US patronized Afghan War. Majority of them were part of different Jihadic groups. Amongst the Jihadis, Haqqannis headed by late Maulvi Jalal Ud Din Haqqani, Hizb-e-Islami Afghanistan faction headed by Maulvi Younas Khalis and several others like Ustad Yasar of Prof. Abdul Rab Rasool Sayaf led Ittehad Islami were the first one who had announced joining of TTA soon after its inception.

Pakistan is suffering from his persistently unsuccessful policies toward its neighbor Afghanistan

No one having the intention to oppose or under mind Pakistan’s harsh criticisms concerning the presence of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) sanctuaries on Afghan soil, but no one can neglect the fact that both countries they have suffered significant harm as a result of Pakistan’s persistently unsuccessful Afghan policies. Instead pursuing failed or flop policies, Pakistan is in possession of stock of opportunities, entering into friendly and trustworthy relations with Afghanistan. Moreover, they could strengthen their ties through economic collaboration, including the negotiations of trade agreements, joint infrastructure development projects, and partnerships in the long-awaited mega energy projects in the region. From a geopolitical perspective, Pakistan and Afghanistan have the opportunity to collaborate on initiatives aimed at promoting regional connectivity and engage in diplomatic endeavors to foster peace and stability within the region.

The conflicting narratives from both sides, especially Pakistani leaders’ remarks only serve to fuel mistrust and escalate tensions between  Afghanistan and Pakistan. Instead of working towards resolving their differences and addressing common security challenges, each side continues to point fingers at the other. This vicious cycle of blame and counter-blame not only undermines efforts towards regional peace but also creates an environment conducive to the growth and spread of extremist groups. It’s generally believed in Afghanistan that Pakistan’s assertions are driven by this country’s long-term policy of strategic depth of having an unstable and unsecured Afghanistan in its western border, rather than a genuine concern for security. They think that Pakistan uses the threat of TTP presence in Afghanistan as a pretext to justify its continued involvement in Afghan affairs or to divert attention from internal issues. Others suggest that Pakistan is seeking international support and sympathy by portraying itself as a victim of terrorism.

Meanwhile, Pakistani Taliban (TTP) cannot be defeated through military means

The assertion that the Pakistan establishment is behind the turmoil in Afghanistan is a complex issue with multiple factors at play and holds merit based on historical context, strategic interests, support for insurgent groups, geopolitical considerations, and implications for regional stability.

Regardless of the motives behind Pakistan’s assertions, it is clear that the current strategy of relying on military action alone will not address the security challenges facing Pakistan. The TTP is an adaptive adversary that cannot be defeated through military means alone. A more realistic and comprehensive approach is needed, one that addresses the root causes of extremism and terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan, such as poverty eradication, depreciation, lack of education, and political instability.

Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan are diverse, covering economic, security, stability, and regional influence considerations. However, significant challenges arise when Pakistan engages in proxy conflicts against successive Afghan governments regardless of their prior friendly relations. This long standing policy of supporting armed opposition groups against ruling authorities has persisted for decades, harming trust and posing a dual threat to both countries. From the last couple of years, the exchanges between Pakistani officials and Taliban representatives highlights a complex web of accusations regarding terrorism and security in South Asia. Both sides appear to be deflecting responsibility while emphasizing the other’s role in perpetuating regional instability. Instead, results oriented dialogues may be encouraged for building up consensus on both sides for addressing common issues of security, extremism, poverty and backwardness.

The issue of IS and controversy surrounding Bagram Airfield to the US drones is a big challenge

Across the border in Afghanistan, the reports of Pakistan’s recent engagement with Afghan warlords, the allegations of harboring ISKP terrorists on its soil against Afghanistan, and the controversy surrounding the provision of air bases to U.S. drones are  issues that promote anti Pakistan sentiment and raise concerns for Afghanistan. It is crucial for Pakistan to promptly and effectively address these matters. In their pursuit of military and political strategies, Pakistani policymakers intentionally create an imaginary emotional narrative that positions Pakistan as a nation sandwiched between two antagonistic neighbors, which serves to rationalize their actions on both domestic and international fronts. This approach not only marks a shift from previous alliances but also underscores the intricate nature of regional politics, where allegiances can swiftly alter in response to immediate strategic requirements.

The implications of this evolving policy are profound for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. For Afghanistan, continued instability may hinder economic development and exacerbate humanitarian crises. For Pakistan, while it may gain short-term advantages through manipulation of Afghan politics, its long-term consequences could include increased militancy within its borders and strained relations with international partners who advocate for stability in the region.

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Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support

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03/08/2026

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The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.

The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.

According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.

Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.

This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.

Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”

As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.

China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.

Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.

To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.

To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.

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Chinese chipmaker profits surge 2,500% on explosive AI computing demand

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28/07/2026

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Major Chinese microchip manufacturers saw their profits surge by 2,579.5% in the first half of 2026, driven by unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence and computing capacity.

Data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics, cited by the South China Morning Post (SCMP), underscored the industry’s sharp upward trajectory.

Yu Weining, senior statistician at China’s National Bureau of Statistics, explained that this surge is directly connected to the accelerating integration of artificial intelligence across various sectors.

Yu noted that this process has increased the need for computing capacity. The demand for computational processes also lifted profits across the entire electronics industry by 97% year-on-year.

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises with an annual revenue exceeding 20 million yuan ($2.9 million) rose 18.7% in the first six months of the year, reaching 4 trillion yuan.

In the first half of 2025, before the global data center construction process had begun, industrial profits had dropped by 1.8% to 3.4 trillion yuan, while profit growth in the electronics sector remained at 3.5%.

The SCMP reported that the global AI boom has generated explosive demand for high-performance computing systems and memory chips, causing a structural pivot in China’s industrial landscape.

Data showed that integrated circuit production in the first half of the year grew by 23% year-on-year to reach approximately 280 billion units.

This figure means that the country produced an average of more than 1.5 billion chips per day.

The profit growth is also corroborated by forecasts from China’s leading chipmakers. Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, one of the largest memory module manufacturers, expects its profits to increase by more than 600-fold in the first half of the year.

Flash memory maker GigaDevice projects that its net profit will surge by approximately 1,099% year-on-year due to supply shortages and rising product prices.

Chinese companies in the AI chip segment are also demonstrating strong profit growth, albeit at a more moderate pace compared to the memory market.

Hygon Information Technology, which develops central processing units and computing units for artificial intelligence, projects that its profits will rise by up to 52.3%.

CXMT hits record high on Shanghai Stock Exchange

Shares of Chinese chipmaker CXMT gained more than 500% on their first day of trading on the Shanghai Stock Exchange on July 27, jumping from 8.66 yuan to 55 yuan.

As a result of this sharp surge in its shares, CXMT’s market valuation reached 3.65 trillion yuan ($539 billion), making the company China’s most valuable publicly traded firm.

At the peak of the rally—even though quoted prices underwent a slight correction toward the close of the trading day—CXMT surpassed Tencent, which was trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with a market capitalization of $514 billion.

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Massive student movement over exam leaks forces resignation of India’s education minister

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27/07/2026

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Indian public examination reform proposals follow education minister’s resignation after nationwide youth protests

India’s federal government introduced legislation in parliament on Monday to amend the law governing public examinations, days after the “Cockroach” movement forced the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan following nationwide youth protests.

The bill incorporates enhanced sanctions, including longer prison sentences and higher fines for those found responsible for exam leaks and irregularities.

The demonstrations are widely viewed as the most significant youth-led challenge faced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi since he took office in 2014.

What triggered the protests?

Nearly 2 million students took the National Eligibility cum Entrance Test (NEET), an undergraduate medical entrance examination, in May. The federal National Testing Agency cancelled the exam on May 12 following allegations that question papers had been leaked. The examination was re-administered on June 21.

Young people took to the streets to protest against examination fraud, youth unemployment, and a perceived lack of future prospects.

According to a BBC report, the unemployment rate among university and college graduates aged 15 to 25 in the country stands at a critically high level of 40%. The addition of corruption in public examinations to existing economic strain broke the patience of the youth.

Abhijeet Dipke, founder of the Cockroach Public Party (CJP) movement, led the protests.

The movement derived its name from remarks made in May by Supreme Court Judge Surya Kant, who used the terms “cockroach” and “parasite” in a derogatory reference to unemployed youth and protesters. Young demonstrators adopted the insult as a symbol and named their movement after it.

How the movement unfolded

Young protesters organized street demonstrations demanding the resignation of Education Minister Pradhan. Dipke, who initiated the movement in New Delhi, subsequently organized protests in other parts of the country.

Sonam Wangchuk, one of the protesters, began a hunger strike at the demonstration site in support of the movement. As his physical condition deteriorated, authorities forcibly transferred him to a hospital.

The reaction to Wangchuk’s forcible removal from the protest site caused crowds at the venue to expand rapidly.

Tens of thousands of protesters faced tear gas and baton charges by police while attempting to march on parliament. Some demonstrators engaged in clashes with law enforcement officers.

CJP leaders held talks with ministers from the Modi government, who requested time to evaluate the protesters’ demands internally.

Modi called for unity among lawmakers in the ruling coalition to implement strict measures against exam paper leaks, punish those responsible, and establish a secure, leak-proof system.

Opposition representatives led by Rahul Gandhi staged a sit-in at the entrance of Modi’s official residence demanding Pradhan’s resignation. They were briefly detained by police before being released.

Opposition lawmakers supporting the student protesters disrupted proceedings in parliament. Demonstrations expanded to other regions of the country, including the financial hub of Mumbai.

In his first direct statement regarding the protests, published in a post on X, Modi announced that special courts would be established to prosecute individuals involved in exam paper leaks. Protesters rejected the proposal.

Movement leaders held a second round of talks with the government after Wangchuk ended his 26-day hunger strike.

Following those discussions, the government requested time until the afternoon of the following day to respond to the demand for Pradhan’s resignation.

Education Minister Pradhan subsequently announced his resignation, stating that he was stepping down in light of the situation at the protest site and across the country, as well as to prevent “external forces” from exploiting the environment.

On July 26, Modi announced the creation of a task force headed by technology entrepreneur Nandan Nilekani to overhaul the country’s examination system.

On Monday, July 27, the government presented a bill to parliament proposing amendments to the law governing public examinations. The legislation introduces stiffer penalties for offenders, including extended prison terms and increased monetary fines.

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