Asia
Economists cut China growth forecasts to 4.8 per cent
Chinese economists have cut their forecasts for the country’s gross domestic product in 2024 in the latest quarterly Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News survey, underlining the pressure on authorities struggling to revive growth.
The average forecast of 28 local experts on China’s economy points to annual GDP growth slowing to 4.8 per cent, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous survey in July. Some of the economists submitted or updated their responses after Chinese authorities last week cut interest rates, supported the property market and pumped billions of dollars into the stock market, sending shares soaring. For those who responded before the stimulus began, the Nikkei asked whether they wanted to change their forecasts.
Of the 25 economists who made full-year growth forecasts in the previous quarterly survey, 16 cut their outlooks, while nine held their expectations steady. The overall range of growth forecasts shifted downwards from 4.8 to 5.3 percent to 4.5 to 5.0 percent. The average forecast for the July-September quarter is 4.6 percent, a further deceleration from the 4.7 percent growth recorded in the April-June period and weaker than the 4.9 percent expansion in the third quarter of last year. The quarter-on-quarter growth forecast for the third quarter, which better reflects the momentum of the economy, is 1.1% in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly higher than the 0.7% growth recorded in the second quarter.
Analysts warned of significant headwinds. KGI Asia’s Ken Chen cut his annual growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.3%, taking into account recent weaker-than-expected data ranging from industrial production and investment to retail and property sales. The current economic growth trend is still down, mainly due to the bottoming out of the property cycle and downward pressure from external demand,’ he said, suggesting that stimulus may not be enough to achieve the government’s annual GDP target of ‘around 5%’.
Despite policy efforts to lower mortgage rates and reduce the cost of buying, the housing sector remains a major drag. When economists were asked to pick the top three risks from a list of nine, the “sluggish housing market” topped the list, cited by 17 out of 20. This was followed by ‘weak consumer confidence’ and ‘no or inadequate policy’.
Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, cut his forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%, saying that previous policy measures to stimulate the property market “may not be as effective”.
Tetsuji Sano, chief Asia economist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said: ‘Consumer demand is likely to fall across the board as the population continues to age and the pension system is underdeveloped.
Property accounts for about 70% of Chinese household assets. This means that the fall in house prices has a direct negative wealth effect, reducing consumer confidence and fuelling deflation concerns.
There are clear risks that deflationary pressures could become entrenched,’ said Alex Muscatelli, Chief Economics Officer at Fitch Ratings. He noted that the GDP deflator, which reflects general price changes in the economy, has fallen on an annualised basis for five consecutive quarters, while prices of basic goods and services have remained flat.
China is heavily reliant on manufacturing and exports, especially as it has struggled to improve sentiment since the COVID-19 outbreak, but momentum in this sector is also starting to wane. Industrial production growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in August from 5.1% y/y in July.
This comes at a time of heightened trade protectionism, with the US, the European Union and Canada imposing additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Similarly, Indonesia has reimposed tariffs on goods such as textile imports, particularly from China, which came into effect in August.
Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO Bank, noted that trade divergence has helped mitigate the impact of tariffs to some extent and that exports remain the key driver of China’s growth. ‘However, China’s supply-side strategy is contributing to escalating trade frictions, with the US, EU and others protecting strategic sectors from China’s [oversupply],’ he said.
Ongoing external and internal uncertainties appear to be behind the stimulus measures, which involve numerous central government agencies, including the People’s Bank of China.
It is rare for the PBOC to announce both a [reserve requirement ratio] cut and an interest rate cut at the same time, signalling the urgency policymakers feel to provide support,’ said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC.
Jian Chang, chief China economist at Barclays, agreed. Recent developments signal that the Chinese leadership is taking a more proactive approach to tackling its most pressing structural problems. However, both bank economists left their annual forecasts unchanged at 4.9 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.
Looking beyond this year, the economists expect a gradual slowdown to 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026, reflecting a long-term structural slowdown.
“The crisis in the housing sector, the associated loss of housing wealth and the need for households to repair their balance sheets, as well as uncertain income and job prospects in an uncertain economic environment, are hampering domestic consumption,” said Sophie Altermatt, economist at Julius Baer.
Wei Yao, chief Asia and China economist at Societe Generale, said ‘the current state of the economy calls for more radical measures’ and stressed the need for ‘restructuring of real estate and local government debt rather than further interest rate cuts to end the deflationary spiral’.
Asia
South Korea emerges as major beneficiary of shifts in global arms market
Uncertainty in the global arms market, driven by the United States reassessing its relationships with allies and a broad rearmament drive across many countries, is creating major commercial opportunities for South Korea. According to an analysis published by Politico, Seoul has become the world’s fastest-growing supplier of military equipment.
The report said that large-scale conflicts around the world have created urgent demand for weapons as countries seek both to support allies and strengthen their own defenses against potential future confrontations. At the same time, changes in the US role within the global arms market have opened new opportunities for South Korean manufacturers. Statements and policy decisions by US President Donald Trump regarding NATO have led allies to question Washington’s reliability in times of crisis, increasing uncertainty across the global market. In addition, the diversion of a large share of US weapons supplies to the Middle East because of ongoing conflicts has placed further strain on already overstretched supply chains.
European countries increase purchases from South Korea
Faced with what Politico described as the Trump administration’s more distant approach toward allies, European countries in particular have accelerated arms purchases from South Korea. The publication noted that Seoul’s growing influence as a supplier has been driven largely by major defense contracts signed with Poland.
Following the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, several Eastern European capitals, including Warsaw, transferred portions of their military inventories to Kyiv, relying on German support to replenish their arsenals. However, Berlin’s slow pace in replacing allied stockpiles generated frustration across the region.
South Korea emerged as an alternative supplier during this period and became a reliable source of military equipment for Eastern European countries. Poland became Seoul’s largest customer through a $13.7 billion agreement covering the purchase of tanks, rocket launchers, self-propelled howitzers and other military equipment.
“We were originally preparing against North Korea, but now we are ready to provide these solutions to customers around the world,” said Choo Hyung-kim, head of the Security Management Institute, a defense analysis organization affiliated with South Korea’s National Assembly.
Lack of political baggage gives Seoul an advantage
Politico reported that one of the greatest advantages enjoyed by South Korean defense companies is the absence of the “political baggage” associated with major arms exporters such as the United States, China, Russia and Israel.
According to the figures cited, the combined projected revenue of South Korea’s largest defense companies, including Hanwha Group, Hyundai Rotem, LIG Nex1 and Korea Aerospace Industries, is expected to reach approximately $37 billion in 2026. That would represent a fourfold increase from their combined revenues in 2021.
Meanwhile, an official from the office of former South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told the Yonhap news agency in 2024 that the scale of any weapons shipments to Ukraine would depend on Russia’s approach to its relationship with North Korea. Seoul later clarified that it had no plans to provide ammunition directly to Ukraine.
Asia
DeepSeek raises $7.4 billion in funding round, surpasses $50 billion valuation
Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek has raised more than 50 billion yuan ($7.4 billion) in its first funding round. According to Reuters, citing The Information, the company’s valuation has surpassed $50 billion.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that the capital will be used to support the costly development of advanced artificial intelligence technologies.
According to the newspaper, citing sources familiar with the matter, investors valued the company at more than $50 billion. The valuation makes DeepSeek the most valuable AI startup in China.
DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng reportedly owned about 90% of the company before the funding round. Liang is said to have contributed roughly $3 billion during the fundraising process, making him the largest participant in the round.
According to Reuters, the transaction was structured in an unusual way that allows Liang to retain control of the company.
Rather than investing directly in DeepSeek, investors were required to invest through a limited partnership managed by a senior executive of the startup. Under the arrangement, investors were not granted voting rights. The report also said restrictions were placed on the use of invested funds for a period of five years.
The sole exception was the China National Artificial Intelligence Industry Investment Fund. The fund reportedly invested approximately $150 million directly in DeepSeek, allowing it to retain both voting rights and full discretion over its stake.
Other major investors in the funding round included Tencent, which invested approximately $1.5 billion, and Contemporary Amperex Technology, which invested about $740 million.
Bloomberg previously described the transaction as one of the largest fundraising rounds undertaken by a Chinese startup. According to the agency, the investment marks a new stage in the efforts of leading Chinese AI companies to compete with their US rivals.
DeepSeek told prospective investors that it would prioritize foundational and transformative AI research over short-term commercialization.
Based in the Chinese city of Hangzhou, DeepSeek emerged as one of Beijing’s most prominent AI companies after unveiling a more powerful and lower-cost model more than a year ago. The WSJ reported that interest surrounding the company has accelerated AI adoption in China and increased investor appetite for domestic startups.
Liang Wenfeng has previously said he intends to continue developing open-source AI models and ultimately aims to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI). According to Bloomberg, the strategy continues an approach that has contributed to the spread of open models and influenced companies across China’s AI market, including Alibaba’s Qwen platform.
Bloomberg added that while global rivals such as OpenAI and Anthropic are exploring public offerings and revenue-generation strategies, DeepSeek has maintained its “research first” approach.
Asia
China issues white paper on global governance reform, urging support for UN-centered international system
China’s State Council Information Office on Wednesday released a white paper titled “A More Just and Equitable Global Governance: China’s Principles, Proposals and Actions.”
The white paper was issued to introduce China’s principles, proposals, and actions regarding global governance, to foster a broader consensus within the international community, to enable more effective responses to global challenges, and to build a more just and equitable global governance system.
The document states that global governance is a common endeavor concerning the well-being of all humanity, and that building a just and equitable global governance system is a shared vision long pursued by people around the world. It also emphasizes that China has always been an active participant, contributor, and builder of global governance.
According to the white paper, in the new era, Chinese President Xi Jinping has put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind. Advancing a global governance system shaped on the basis of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, Xi has called for true multilateralism to promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and an economic globalization that is inclusive and beneficial for all.
In 2025, Xi proposed the Global Governance Initiative (GGI). This initiative was designed to offer China’s solutions to two urgent questions of the era: What kind of global governance system should be established, and how should global governance be reformed and improved?
The white paper notes that shortly after its introduction, the GGI received support from approximately 160 countries and international organizations, with more than 60 countries joining the Group of Friends of the Global Governance Initiative. It states that the international community is of the view that the GGI sends a clear message: to defend multilateralism, join forces, and strive for a just future.
According to the white paper, the GGI aligns with the growing trend toward greater democracy in international relations and strengthens international confidence in the practice of multilateralism. The initiative provides a clear and actionable roadmap for the improvement of global governance, injecting valuable stability and positive energy into a turbulent world.
The white paper emphasizes that China proposed the GGI to accelerate the construction of a more just and equitable global governance system. The document states that firmly defending the authority and status of the United Nations is of fundamental importance for the effective implementation of this initiative.
According to the white paper, success will also depend on major countries acting with a sense of responsibility and all nations working together in unity to bridge deficits in peace and development. It states that rather than attempting to reinvent the wheel, all countries must firmly defend the international system with the UN at its core, maintain the international order based on international law, and uphold the fundamental norms of international relations based on the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.
In addition to the preface and conclusion, the white paper consists of five chapters: “Today’s World Faces Severe and Complex Challenges,” “The Global Governance Initiative Responds to the Challenges of Our Era,” “China’s Contribution to the Development of Global Governance,” “Directing the Course of Change Toward a Bright Future,” and “Advancing Hand in Hand at a Critical Juncture in History.”
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