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Economists cut China growth forecasts to 4.8 per cent

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Chinese economists have cut their forecasts for the country’s gross domestic product in 2024 in the latest quarterly Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News survey, underlining the pressure on authorities struggling to revive growth.

The average forecast of 28 local experts on China’s economy points to annual GDP growth slowing to 4.8 per cent, down from 4.9 per cent in the previous survey in July. Some of the economists submitted or updated their responses after Chinese authorities last week cut interest rates, supported the property market and pumped billions of dollars into the stock market, sending shares soaring. For those who responded before the stimulus began, the Nikkei asked whether they wanted to change their forecasts.

Of the 25 economists who made full-year growth forecasts in the previous quarterly survey, 16 cut their outlooks, while nine held their expectations steady. The overall range of growth forecasts shifted downwards from 4.8 to 5.3 percent to 4.5 to 5.0 percent. The average forecast for the July-September quarter is 4.6 percent, a further deceleration from the 4.7 percent growth recorded in the April-June period and weaker than the 4.9 percent expansion in the third quarter of last year. The quarter-on-quarter growth forecast for the third quarter, which better reflects the momentum of the economy, is 1.1% in seasonally adjusted terms, slightly higher than the 0.7% growth recorded in the second quarter.

Analysts warned of significant headwinds. KGI Asia’s Ken Chen cut his annual growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.3%, taking into account recent weaker-than-expected data ranging from industrial production and investment to retail and property sales. The current economic growth trend is still down, mainly due to the bottoming out of the property cycle and downward pressure from external demand,’ he said, suggesting that stimulus may not be enough to achieve the government’s annual GDP target of ‘around 5%’.

Despite policy efforts to lower mortgage rates and reduce the cost of buying, the housing sector remains a major drag. When economists were asked to pick the top three risks from a list of nine, the “sluggish housing market” topped the list, cited by 17 out of 20. This was followed by ‘weak consumer confidence’ and ‘no or inadequate policy’.

Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, cut his forecast from 4.9% to 4.7%, saying that previous policy measures to stimulate the property market “may not be as effective”.

Tetsuji Sano, chief Asia economist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, said: ‘Consumer demand is likely to fall across the board as the population continues to age and the pension system is underdeveloped.

Property accounts for about 70% of Chinese household assets. This means that the fall in house prices has a direct negative wealth effect, reducing consumer confidence and fuelling deflation concerns.

There are clear risks that deflationary pressures could become entrenched,’ said Alex Muscatelli, Chief Economics Officer at Fitch Ratings. He noted that the GDP deflator, which reflects general price changes in the economy, has fallen on an annualised basis for five consecutive quarters, while prices of basic goods and services have remained flat.

China is heavily reliant on manufacturing and exports, especially as it has struggled to improve sentiment since the COVID-19 outbreak, but momentum in this sector is also starting to wane. Industrial production growth slowed to 4.5% y/y in August from 5.1% y/y in July.

This comes at a time of heightened trade protectionism, with the US, the European Union and Canada imposing additional tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Similarly, Indonesia has reimposed tariffs on goods such as textile imports, particularly from China, which came into effect in August.

Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN AMRO Bank, noted that trade divergence has helped mitigate the impact of tariffs to some extent and that exports remain the key driver of China’s growth. ‘However, China’s supply-side strategy is contributing to escalating trade frictions, with the US, EU and others protecting strategic sectors from China’s [oversupply],’ he said.

Ongoing external and internal uncertainties appear to be behind the stimulus measures, which involve numerous central government agencies, including the People’s Bank of China.

It is rare for the PBOC to announce both a [reserve requirement ratio] cut and an interest rate cut at the same time, signalling the urgency policymakers feel to provide support,’ said Jing Liu, chief economist for Greater China at HSBC.

Jian Chang, chief China economist at Barclays, agreed. Recent developments signal that the Chinese leadership is taking a more proactive approach to tackling its most pressing structural problems. However, both bank economists left their annual forecasts unchanged at 4.9 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.

Looking beyond this year, the economists expect a gradual slowdown to 4.5 per cent in 2025 and 4.2 per cent in 2026, reflecting a long-term structural slowdown.

“The crisis in the housing sector, the associated loss of housing wealth and the need for households to repair their balance sheets, as well as uncertain income and job prospects in an uncertain economic environment, are hampering domestic consumption,” said Sophie Altermatt, economist at Julius Baer.

Wei Yao, chief Asia and China economist at Societe Generale, said ‘the current state of the economy calls for more radical measures’ and stressed the need for ‘restructuring of real estate and local government debt rather than further interest rate cuts to end the deflationary spiral’.

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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