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EU clears path for Mercosur trade deal after decades of deadlock

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The European Commission took a major step on Wednesday toward signing a sweeping trade agreement between the EU and the Mercosur bloc.

Brussels addressed France’s concerns by proposing a safeguard to protect farmers if beef and poultry imports from Latin America destabilize local markets.

The Mercosur deal had been stalled for 25 years, facing strong opposition from powerful European farmers who feared an influx of cheap agricultural goods would undermine local producers.

Even after negotiations concluded last December, France—backed by Italy and Poland—opposed the deal and threatened to block its ratification amid continent-wide farmer protests.

However, US President Donald Trump’s launch of a global trade war this year, including tariffs on European and Latin American goods, gave momentum to the agreement.

The Mercosur group, made up of Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay, was also hit by Trump’s unpredictable tariffs. Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazil following the arrest of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was on trial for an attempted coup.

Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said while presenting the deal, “In today’s uncertain geopolitical environment, diversifying our supply chains and deepening partnerships with reliable allies, partners, and friends is not a luxury. It is a necessity. These agreements will reinforce the EU’s economic presence in Latin America, which has recently declined.”

The move highlights a delicate balancing act for Brussels. After marathon negotiations, the EU leadership is trying to reassure skeptical member states without jeopardizing the long-awaited deal.

To appease critics in Paris and beyond, Brussels pledged on Wednesday to monitor beef and poultry imports, proposing an additional text that would allow tariffs or import limits if European agriculture was shown to be harmed.

Crucially, this safeguard would not require reopening the trade agreement itself.

Still, this was not enough to sway Warsaw. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Wednesday morning, “Poland will oppose Mercosur because we want to show and prove that we will not retreat when it comes to the interests of Polish agricultural producers.”

Tusk admitted, however, that he lacked partners to form a blocking minority. “Since the French do not want to form this blocking minority with us, we at least agreed they would cooperate with us to prepare a defense mechanism,” he added.

The so-called “cows-for-cars” agreement will eliminate tariffs on 91% of EU exports, including automobiles, within 15 years, and gradually remove tariffs on 92% of Mercosur exports over a period of up to 10 years.

French President Emmanuel Macron told his ministers on Wednesday that Paris had been “right to oppose previous versions” of the Mercosur deal but that his government must “scrutinize the details” of the new version.

Despite France’s renewed political deadlock—Prime Minister François Bayrou is expected to lose next week’s confidence vote due to a €43.8 billion austerity plan—Paris is cautiously endorsing the deal this time.

Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin said Wednesday he was “reasonably optimistic,” noting, “France is not opposed to this agreement in principle. What matters is having mechanisms that can limit imports and be deployed effectively.”

By offering safeguard commitments, Brussels is giving these countries a concrete way to placate their small but politically powerful farming constituencies. The Commission also intends to release €6.3 billion in long-term funds under the Common Agricultural Policy to help farmers weather potential market shocks.

A senior Commission official stated, “We always want to keep all family members happy. As with all member states, we worked with France over the summer and take all concerns very seriously. We are leaving no one behind in this debate.”

The texts adopted Wednesday (including a separate update to the EU’s trade agreement with Mexico) launch the ratification process within the bloc.

The trade and political chapters of the deal have been separated to speed approval. Ratification of the trade provisions requires only a qualified majority of 15 out of 27 EU member states, while the political chapter—covering national competences such as investment—requires unanimity.

The Commission expects to sign the agreement in early 2026, pending approval from member state capitals and the European Parliament.

Europe

EU and allies pull conference backing after US pressure over panel

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The Trump administration pressured several countries to withdraw their support for a leading European conference on disinformation.

Canada, Lithuania, and the European External Action Service (EEAS) subsequently complied.

Held on Wednesday and Thursday, the #Disinfo2026 conference serves as the annual gathering of Europe’s anti-disinformation community, bringing together hundreds of researchers, journalists, technology specialists, and policymakers at a hotel in Vilnius, Lithuania.

The conference is organised by EU DisinfoLab, an independent non-profit organisation based in Brussels.

A few days before the conference, the logos of its main sponsors: the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the European External Action Service (EEAS), and Global Affairs Canada, were removed from the website.

Photographs of the event shared with The Guardian also show white stickers affixed over these organisations’ logos printed on official conference materials.

This appears to indicate that the logos were removed from the programme in haste.

Three people familiar with the matter, including European officials, confirmed that the US Department of State contacted several governments regarding their support for the conference.

Internal US Department of State documents obtained by The Guardian also reveal that US officials thanked Lithuania for “taking US concerns seriously”.

The document notes that Washington was “grateful” that Lithuania found the organisation of a panel describing the US as a foreign information threat “reprehensible and baffling”, and welcomed its decision to limit participation in the conference.

According to information obtained by The Guardian, France was also contacted.

The panel, titled “The US as a FIMI threat: adapt, accept, counter” (where the acronym FIMI stands for “foreign information manipulation and interference”), was held on Wednesday.

The panel addressed how Europe’s disinformation community could regain resilience without Washington, and appears to mark the first time the conference raised the idea that the US could be a disinformation actor in Europe.

According to sources and internal documents, the Department of State focused specifically on this panel, which featured three American speakers, including a former CIA officer.

According to a person briefed on the discussions, the source of other correspondence appeared to be the office of Sarah B. Rogers, Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs.

In their statements, Lithuania, Canada, and the EU noted that the conference programme did not align with their official views regarding the US role in disinformation.

Yet this programme had been drawn up months before they withdrew their support, dating back to June.

In a statement, the Lithuanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “Lithuania cancelled its participation in the ‘Disinfo 2026’ conference because parts of the conference programme diverged from the government’s official position.”

Samantha Lafleur, a spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada (GAC), said: “GAC carefully reviews participation in and sponsorship of external events on a case-by-case basis. Following changes to the framing of several panel discussions, GAC decided to review its participation in those sessions at the EU DisinfoLab 2026 conference,” adding that Canadian officials still attended the conference.

An EU spokesperson confirmed that the European External Action Service decided to withdraw its support for the conference because “the organisers chose to frame some discussions in a way that did not align with official EU positions.”

According to information obtained by The Guardian, EU officials disagreed with describing the US as a disinformation actor.

Despite withdrawing its name as an official backer, the EU continues to provide funding for the conference.

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MI6 investigates potential leaks after former BND chief is detained

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British intelligence agencies, led by MI6, are investigating whether their confidential data or spies were compromised in the biggest espionage scandal in modern German history.

August Hanning, the former head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, along with a current senior official at the agency identified only as Manfred D, was detained on Tuesday on suspicion of espionage and treason.

Hanning faces allegations that he unlawfully amassed thousands of classified documents over a 16-year period through Manfred D and sold a portion of those secrets to a foreign power.

German security sources noted that some of the high-level information handled by the pair originated from partner intelligence agencies abroad, raising the prospect that British and American intelligence may have been leaked.

This development has brought accompanying concerns that US and British human sources operating in the field, such as active agents or informants, could have their identities exposed through the shared information.

Matthew Dunn, a former MI6 intelligence officer, said British intelligence services would meticulously review everything shared with the BND and assess the risks.

Dunn said:

“There is no doubt that there is a major internal security review going on inside MI6 right now, looking meticulously at the intelligence shared with a very trusted liaison partner and assessing whether any of that compromises MI6-related operations and people.”

Nevertheless, the former spy stated he would be “very surprised” if this situation affected the agency’s relationship with the BND, adding that he expected the two services would act cooperatively.

He explained that during intelligence sharing, the introduction of “automatic checks and balances” mechanisms, including the redaction of information relating to sources, is standard practice.

News of the scandal has shocked the Western intelligence community. Sources described the alleged breach as a major success for a foreign power, noting that it could cause serious damage to the Western intelligence-sharing alliance.

Alongside MI6 and GCHQ, multiple US agencies are also believed to be conducting a systematic internal review of all sensitive information shared with European allies during the period in question.

According to information obtained by The Telegraph, the primary focus of these agencies is understood to be protecting sources who may have been compromised due to the alleged leak.

Similar audits are likely to be conducted by all of Germany’s intelligence-sharing partners and allies.

While it remains unclear when German authorities notified their counterparts of the security breach, it is understood to have occurred prior to Tuesday’s arrests.

German media reported that the leaked information included details regarding Iran’s nuclear programme, the Russian military, and classified documents belonging to foreign partner agencies.

The statement noted that most of the documents in question contained “confidential information prepared by the federal intelligence service exclusively for internal purposes, particularly for intelligence briefings aimed at the executive branch.”

According to the prosecution, Hanning used this information in his private consulting activities.

“In one incident, Hanning used classified intelligence provided by Manfred D to prepare an analysis for an official of a foreign intelligence service,” the statement said.

Authorities have not yet determined whether this information reached its intended recipient. On Tuesday night, Der Spiegel reported that the analysis in question was prepared for the Azerbaijani intelligence service.

Azerbaijan maintains security and intelligence partnerships with Russia, Israel, Türkiye, and the US, as well as other countries.

Hanning had previously adopted a hawkish posture towards Moscow in German national security debates.

In a 2024 interview with The Telegraph, he stated that his country had been “naive” and needed to be “awakened” to the reality of a potential war:

“People don’t realise that there is a serious danger: there is sympathy for Russia, especially in East Germany and on the far left and within the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, parts of which are demanding an end to sanctions against Russia.”

According to The Insider, Hanning travelled to Russia at least seven times after leaving the BND.

The former intelligence chief made all of these trips between 2015 and 2019, frequently spending only a single day in Moscow.

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Bill to drop NATO membership goal submitted to Ukrainian parliament

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A bill proposing to enshrine neutral status in the constitution and abandon the goal of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has been submitted to the Ukrainian parliament.

According to a report by the Strana portal, the proposal was introduced to the parliamentary agenda by lawmaker Anna Skorokhod.

The drafted constitutional amendment stipulates that Ukraine must not participate in military alliances and must confirm that it harbours no aggressive intentions against any state.

The text notes that neutrality status should be registered through “guaranteeing non-participation in any military alliance and confirming the absence of intent to attack any country.”

While the bill submitted by Skorokhod aims to remove the NATO goal from the constitution, it envisages maintaining constitutional guarantees for the country’s course towards full European Union (EU) membership.

NATO goal in constitution took effect in 2019

The strategic goal of EU and NATO membership enshrined in Ukraine’s constitution was adopted in February 2019, during the tenure of then-president Petro Poroshenko.

The constitutional amendments in question obliged the government to implement this course and designated the president as the guarantor of the process.

Poroshenko, who assumed the leadership of the European Solidarity party in May of that year, has led the party ever since.

Advocating Euro-Atlantic integration, Poroshenko described EU and NATO membership in a 2026 assessment as one of the country’s long-term security guarantees.

Moscow insists on neutrality condition

The Moscow administration links a potential resolution to the war in Ukraine to a series of conditions that Kyiv must fulfil.

These conditions include the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as the international legal recognition of these territories, alongside Crimea and Sevastopol, as Russian soil.

Ukraine’s formal renunciation of NATO membership maintains its weight among Moscow’s primary demands.

Russian officials state that Ukraine’s neutral status must be explicitly included in future agreements.

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