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EU faces trade war threat from Trump over LNG imports

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US President Donald Trump is threatening the EU with a trade war unless it buys more US oil and gas. However, while Brussels has signaled that it is open to the idea, it lacks purchasing power, and European countries are importing record amounts of cheaper liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the question of whether Europe can act as a bloc and buy more American fuel is creating significant uncertainty over transatlantic relations after the US president took office on Monday.

In a post on social media last month, Trump said: “Buy our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, every road is TARIFF!!!” he warned.

EU still sceptical about American LNG

Shortly after her re-election, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also backed the idea, asking, “Why not replace [Russian gas] with American LNG?”

However, officials and analysts told the FT that the EU’s executive branch is not a gas buyer and cannot do more than inform Trump that European companies are interested in American LNG.

The bloc had pledged to buy more LNG from the US in 2022. Officials say there are no immediate plans to update this pledge. “What conditions do we have to put forward for this to happen? We’re not going to review everything on 21 January,” he said.

American lobby group pushes for bypassing Russia

The underlying problem, according to the FT, is that the EU cannot give up cheaper Russian fossil fuels. Last year, EU companies imported record amounts of LNG from that country.

“This LNG should come from the US,” said Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the largest US oil and gas lobby group.

Fearing a supply crunch after Moscow’s gradual shutdown of pipeline gas to Europe, the EU has refrained from banning LNG, as it did with Russian coal, or imposing a price ceiling on tanker-shipped Russian LNG, as it did with Russian oil.

Biden administration refrained from putting Yamal on the sanctions list

Instead, the bloc set an indicative target to completely phase out all Russian fossil fuels by 2027 and allowed governments to ban the country’s exporters from using EU gas infrastructure.

Some ministers complained that this was not enough to force companies to break existing contracts. According to EU diplomats involved in the negotiations, LNG could be included in a new round of sanctions, but this would require the unanimous approval of all 27 member states, which Hungary and Slovakia are likely to oppose.

The Joe Biden administration added two small Russian LNG facilities to the US sanctions list in January but refrained from including Yamal, a large terminal supplying Europe and other parts of the world.

As one of his first acts in office, Trump pledged to lift the freeze on new LNG export capacity imposed by the previous administration.

The EU also has the opportunity to import more from regasification terminals, which convert the liquefied fuel shipped back into gas.

Energy costs are still the biggest issue

However, price sensitivity is a significant problem, according to the FT. At the same time as appeasing Trump, the EU is struggling to protect its industries and reduce high energy prices, especially in Germany, Europe’s largest economy.

Gas prices in the EU are more than three times higher than in the US and remain stubbornly high at more than twice the level before the Ukraine war.

“The price issue is a sensitive and decisive one,” said a senior EU official.

Diplomacy

Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour

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Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.

Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.

As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.

The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.

Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.

In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.

Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”

US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”

On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.

According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.

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Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions

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Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.

According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.

Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.

The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.

Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.

He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.

Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.

Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.

The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.

On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.

In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.

In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.

The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.

Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.

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Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.

In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.

“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”

Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.

He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.

Washington pledges to maintain defence support

Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.

“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.

Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.

“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.

Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks

In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.

He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.

Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”

Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.

The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.

In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.

The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.

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