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EU prepares deal with Trump: ‘Give Ukraine, get China’

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The European Union (EU) is gearing up to initiate talks with the U.S. president-elect’s transition team in an effort to minimize political uncertainty following Donald Trump’s victory in Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.

According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the EU is preparing a “wish list” for these negotiations. Key priorities include securing continued U.S. financial support for Ukraine and avoiding high tariffs on European imports.

However, Brussels has reportedly been informed of a clear expectation from Trump’s team: EU support for stricter measures against China.

People familiar with these discussions indicated that the China-related demand was presented explicitly during preliminary talks with Republican officials prior to the election.

The European Commission has, in fact, been preparing for a Trump presidency for over a year. It has developed a series of retaliation plans, which include proposals to increase purchases of U.S. energy products to address the trade deficit and a tariff strategy targeting rates above 50% if negotiations stall.

Furthermore, Brussels is reportedly preparing for potential shifts in U.S. diplomatic policy, such as Trump’s possible shift of China’s diplomatic recognition from Beijing to Taipei.

DIPLOMACY

Armenian government approves bill to begin EU accession process

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The Armenian government has approved the draft law on “launching the process of accession of the Republic of Armenia to the European Union (EU).” According to News.am, the process has officially begun.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced that the draft law on the EU accession process was submitted to the National Assembly for consideration. Mirzoyan added that the relations between his country and the EU have been “quite intense and dynamic” in recent years.

“The EU has provided strong political support to Armenian democracy on various occasions. The EU has also played an active role in ensuring security in the neighborhood of the Republic of Armenia,” Mirzoyan said.

On the other hand, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia’s EU membership can only be realized after a referendum.

“In the autumn of 2023, I made a speech in the European Parliament, the main message of which was that Armenia is ready to be with the EU, to be as close as the EU sees fit. At that time, this very speech became the most popular topic in Armenia. The reaction of Armenian citizens to this speech was unprecedented,” he said.

The Prime Minister recalled that this was followed by a trilateral meeting between Armenia, the U.S., and the EU on April 5, 2024, at the suggestion of the EU, which had a “wide resonance.” According to the procedure established by the Constitution of Armenia, a civil initiative was formed, which took legal action by collecting 50,000 signatures.

Pashinyan also emphasized that if this law is adopted, “we should have a clear understanding of the steps to be taken, including whether to hold a referendum or not.”

“As far as I understand, after the adoption of this law, we should discuss with the EU the roadmap they will present and the roadmap we will present, and we should create a roadmap together,” the Prime Minister said.

In March last year, Pashinyan, while evaluating the European Parliament’s resolution on strengthening relations with Yerevan, stated that the Armenian government was determined to deepen relations with the EU.

At the end of June, Alen Simonyan, the Speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, stated in an interview with LSM.lv television that Armenia may organize a referendum on EU accession in the near future. Simonyan emphasized that Armenian society had made up its mind on joining the EU.

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Trump Doctrine: ‘The purpose of the Greenland exit is to send a strong message to China’

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The repercussions of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland, an autonomous island of Denmark, without excluding the possibility of using military force, continue to unfold.

A report in the New York Post (NYP) emphasizes that Trump’s move raises the question, “Why?” and includes insights from a source close to Trump’s transition team.

Claiming that Greenland is becoming increasingly important for strategists in many countries, especially Washington, due to its location on vital shipping routes and the presence of key raw materials rarely found elsewhere, the NYP reported that the source said, “To send a strong and deliberate message to Beijing. Not just talk. It’s action. Make America ambitious again,” the source was quoted as saying.

The source also noted that the president-elect drew the first framework of the “Trump Doctrine.”

According to the Wilson Center, a foreign policy think tank, the U.S. is locked in a “three-cornered” struggle with Russia and China for the Arctic’s natural resources, such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite.

Alex Plitsas of the Atlantic Council said, “There are two main reasons [for annexing Greenland]. First, the large deposits of rare earth elements, which are essential for critical defense and electronics production. Second, Greenland has a legitimately large claim to the Arctic, which will give the United States a stronger position as competition for navigation and resources there heats up.”

U.S.-China-Russia rivalry in the Arctic

For years, the U.S. has been in a “quiet tug-of-war” with China and Russia over access to the Arctic and has been sending military icebreakers to explore the resource-rich island, the NYP reports.

The Arctic is thought to be abundant in rare earth minerals, which are used in everything from mobile phones to weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. and Western countries are mostly dependent on China for these minerals.

According to Plitsas, this dependence on Beijing “is not sustainable given geopolitical realities.” He argues, “There are other large deposits in places like Afghanistan, which are also unsustainable for various reasons.”

“With increasing demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and advanced electronics, the United States relies heavily on critical materials to spur innovation and maintain global economic competitiveness,” the Wilson Center wrote in its 2023 report.

Competition over the Arctic, on the other hand, has intensified in recent years due to climate change, which has led to the melting of glaciers that previously made it almost impossible to access resources. “Warming has led to greater freedom of navigation in the Arctic,” Plitsas recalls.

U.S. ‘icebreaker ship’ discomfort

But according to the NYP, the Americans have so far lagged behind their rivals, partly due to limited U.S. access to the region and a relatively small number of icebreakers.

This problem has long troubled some Republicans, including Mike Waltz, whom Trump appointed as national security adviser. In a 2017 post on X, Waltz wrote, “In the Arctic, where we will compete for natural resources, the Coast Guard needs more than one icebreaker! Russia has dozens!”

The Coast Guard currently has only two of the vital vessels, but Waltz recently promised to ask for more in the 119th Congress in response to a post on X calling for “a dozen more” icebreakers.

Additional icebreakers and the acquisition of Greenland are topics Trump has chosen to highlight as the U.S. builds more rare earth mineral processing plants as part of an effort to reduce its dependence on China.

The United States is home to only 1.3 percent of the world’s rare earth minerals, compared to 70 percent for China.

Greenland open to non-annexation options

Kuno Fencker, a member of Greenland’s parliament, told CNN on Tuesday that the island only gained full autonomy in 2009 and that since then, the regional government has been working to achieve sovereignty.

“We may have a lot of disagreements here about property, because we are trying to create a sovereign country as Greenland and we want to establish the state of Greenland,” Fencker said, adding that the regional government may be willing to work on a free association agreement with the United States.

The U.S. already has such agreements with Pacific island states such as Palau. Such agreements require Washington to provide financial assistance to the countries entering into the free relationship, as well as grant island citizens the right to work and live in the U.S. as “permanent residents.”

“The main [point] here is that Greenland [status] should be a monumental decision, what kind of state we want to be, and also who we should cooperate with, and our closest allies, which, you know, we are under the rule of Denmark,” Fencker said.

The new White House is open to other options

The source told NYP that Trump may be willing to discuss alternative arrangements with Greenland authorities other than full annexation.

“There is flexibility in discussing the best ways to strengthen America’s security, so I think it’s fair to say there is more than one option,” the source said.

The U.S. has long wanted to own Greenland. When it bought Alaska from Russia in 1867, it also considered bidding for the island in the North Atlantic.

Almost eighty years later, after the Second World War, the U.S. offered Greenland $100 million in gold bullion, which Denmark rejected.

But the offer led to a defense deal that gave the U.S. access to Thule Air Base, now Pituffik Spaceport, the northernmost outpost of the military, which was critical during the Cold War because of its proximity to Russia.

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Donald Trump Jr. makes surprise visit to Greenland amid U.S. interest

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Donald Trump Jr. traveled to Greenland amid his father’s growing interest in the “ownership” of the island and days after the leader of the Danish autonomous region pushed for independence.

The head of Greenland’s foreign affairs department, Mininnguaq Kleist, told Danish state radio DR that Trump Jr.’s visit was personal and that no request for a meeting with the Greenlandic government had been made.

However, a Greenlandic political source told Euractiv that Trump Jr. would meet with Erik Jensen, the head of the Social Democratic Party. Jensen is the minister of finance and taxation in the Greenlandic government.

The office of Greenland’s prime minister, Múte Egede, did not respond to a request for comment. Egede’s official calendar does not show any meeting with Trump Jr., but the source said a meeting between the two was possible.

“This is not an official visit to the U.S.,” a spokesperson for the Danish Foreign Ministry told Euractiv.

In recent days, Egede has strengthened his rhetoric of independence from Denmark. In his annual New Year’s speech, he said that Greenland should work with other countries to “remove the obstacles to cooperation that we might describe as the shackles of colonialism.”

Aaja Chemnitz, a Greenlandic member of Egede’s party and of the Danish Parliament, commented on the visit on social media, writing that “we need to get better at saying no to Donald Trump” and that “I don’t want to be a pawn in Trump’s dreams of expanding his empire to include our country.”

U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed his desire to “own and control” Greenland since his re-election.

The Greenlandic government has twice rejected Trump’s offers to buy the island, in 2019 and last year, with Egede saying, “Greenland is ours. We are not for sale, and we will never be for sale.”

Despite its wealth of mineral, oil, and natural gas resources, Greenland’s economy remains fragile, heavily dependent on fishing and annual grants from Denmark.

There is also an American base in the region.

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