Europe
Europe’s deepening crisis and Germany’s current state
The European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) went on to increase interest rates one after the other, as it was expected. Three central banks, who prioritize the “fight against inflation”, aim to make borrowing difficult and cool the economy by hiking the policy interest rate. While the ECB raised the policy interest rate to 2%, the Fed increased it to 4% and BoE to 3%.
ECB President Christine Lagarde asserted there is still way to go on interest rates, and that with the increase, their goal is to reduce inflation to 2%. Inflation in the euro area is expected to rise from 9.9% in September to 10.7% in October. Decisions on interest rate that make borrowing difficult are thought to pose a risk of global recession.
However, the debate that the ECB’s reasons for raising interest rates are not the same as those of the Fed is also on the agenda. Some economists argue that for the U.S., post Covid-19 period led to the rapidly increasing demand and therefore inflation, while in the euro area, geopolitical tensions (such as the Ukraine-Russia war) have become the source of inflation. This view is of “inflation-phobic” Bundesbank origin, fearing that inflation will become permanent in the euro area and that this will strain the German and European economies, especially in the year-end collective labor agreement negotiations in Germany.
On the other hand, we should also note that in the euro area, which is said to have fallen into an inflation pit due to geopolitical reasons, the hike in energy prices, which experienced a huge increase in summer, has started to decline. Natural gas prices fell by 50% compared to September and by 70% compared to August, when it peaked. The EU has clearly stopped seeing this nightmare of winter freeze, for a while. In this case, the view that geopolitical elements trigger inflation is partly impractical.
Source of inflation: Demand or profit?
But what is not right for Europe is right for the United States? Earlier, we stated the mainstream interpretation of the origin of inflation in the United States was excessive demand. There are also variants of this statement: Excessive money supply causes inflation; the fact that demands for wage increase force companies to increase prices causes inflation…
These statements are highly controversial, and the policies of the central banks are contradictory. For example, BoE, which claimed to control inflation by increasing interest rates, launched an emergency bond purchase program after the real estate market alarmed following Liz Truss’s package of tax cut, and did not hesitate to release money.
Moreover, these statements observed to lose their reputation within the mainstream. In an article published in the Financial Times, it was argued that the Fed’s showing excessive demand and wages as the cause of inflation did not reflect the facts. The article by Paul Donovan, the chief economist of the world’s largest asset manager, UBS, identifies the source of inflation as the profit margins of companies, with a long-lost openness.
Prices are rising faster than wages, and real wage growth is negative, Donovan says. This finding is based on the following: Businesses and companies have grown their profits by reflecting price increase to their customers, while at the same time making people work harder and increasing wages less than the prices. Post-pandemic household continued to consume by saving less and borrowing more, and thus managed to make up for the sorry state of real wages.
Numerical repercussions of sanctions to the German industry
A report released by the IMF last February estimated that 60% of inflation in the euro area was caused by supply shocks. Therefore, supply chains smashed by COVID-19, the destruction in international trade and the manufacturing industry are among the main causes of inflation. It is seen that the sanctions imposed on Russia have also stirred up trouble in the manufacturing industry in Europe, especially in the German industry.
Perhaps BASF, the world’s largest chemical producer, best describes the state of the German industry shaped after the sanctions against Russia. BASF reported last month that should Germany be forced to ration gas this winter, it may shutter its flagship plant, which employs 39,000 people. Even if this does not happen, BASF will have to stop some of its operations next year, and European consumers will be constrained to U.S. and Asian suppliers for their chemical supply, according to experts. It should be kept in mind that natural gas is not only an energy source for BASF, but also serves as a raw material for making products such as ammonia. Therefore, BASF CEO Martin Brudermüller is one of the most important opponents of sanctions against Russia.
According to preliminary estimates published in mid-October, BASF’s net income in the first three quarters of 2022 was 909m euros. That’s a 32% drop from the same period last year. The company’s second quarterly report also shows that energy costs rose by 260% compared to the same period last year, costing the company 500m euros.
It should also be noted that along with BASF, Putin supporter Russian oligarch Mikhail Fridman is the co-owner of oil and gas manufacturer Wintershall Dea. Wintershall Dea was also a major financial investor of in the Nord Stream 2 gas project.
The German energy giant Uniper is of a similar case. Announcing the balance sheet for the first nine months of 2022, Uniper reported a record loss of 40 billion euros. In September, the German government nationalized Uniper by acquiring a 99% stake. The government is expected to give Uniper a 30-billion-euro support package.
Reaction grows against US-Germany-based economy in Europe
Contrary to all expectations, Germany managed to grow by 0.3% in the third quarter. But alarm bells are ringing for other EU countries.
The EU’s second largest economy, France, grew by 0.2% in the third quarter. The growth in the second quarter was 0.5%; the recession was driven by a decline in consumption due to high inflation. Similarly, Spain grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, despite a 1.5% growth in the second quarter and a large increase in tourism revenues in post Covid-19. Yet again the slowdown in growth is also caused by decline in consumption due to inflation.
As a matter of fact, reactions to the ECB’s hike in interest rates were immediate. In her maiden speech, Italy’s new prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, sniped at ECB, saying hike in interest rates would create additional difficulties for states, like Italy, which have high public debt. Italy’s public debt is currently around 150% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
French President Emmanuel Macron, whose country’s public debt to GDP ratio is around 113%, has also been critical of the ECB’s decision. Unlike the United States, European economies are “not overheating”, Macron told experts that demand must be curtailed to reduce inflation. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said last month that the ECB’s credibility has become questionable, since it is driving economies into recession.
In Germany, on the other hand, the voice of the opposition began to grow more. Tino Chrupalla of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party urged the German parliament to lift the sanctions against Russia, stop selling weapons to Ukraine and withdraw Germany from U.S. unilateral politics. Sahra Wagenknecht of the Left Party described the Greens as the ‘most dangerous party’ in the Bundestag for destroying the German economy with their stance on the Ukrainian war. Meanwhile, after the Left Party Group chairman separated himself from Wagenknecht, saying that the most dangerous party was still the AfD, rumors increased that the opposition figure would leave the party and form a separate organization.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz took several CEOs on a trip to Beijing. According to CNN, Scholz is accompanied by German industry titans such as Volkswagen, Siemens, Deutsche Bank and BASF. The chancellor’s visit to China comes amid controversy that began when the Chinese state-owned Cosco sought to buy shares in the operator of one of the four terminals at the port of Hamburg. It should also be acknowledged that China is Germany’s biggest trading partner. Germany, whose economy is based on exports and is separated from the Russian market, appear to be not wanting to lose the Chinese market.
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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