The Iranian leadership is weighing the option of striking American military facilities in Europe should US President Donald Trump escalate tensions.

According to a report by the Financial Times citing two sources close to Iranian officials, Tehran has worked on potential strike plans targeting American facilities in Southeastern Europe. In this context, Bezmer Air Base in Bulgaria, used by the US military for aircraft refuelling, alongside Cyprus, which hosts British military bases, were listed among potential targets. Iran was also reported to have evaluated the possibility of attacking undersea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz.

The sources stated that in the event of a new conflict, Tehran could expand its strike range beyond the borders of the Middle East. One source said: “If the US goes too far, Iran will defend itself at all costs, go beyond the region’s borders, and strike Europe.”

The Tehran government has previously attempted strikes against long-range targets. The US announced in February that missiles were launched towards the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, while Türkiye stated in March that it intercepted Iranian-origin ballistic missiles in mid-air. The report noted that Tehran might find it more convenient to act through allied groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen rather than via direct action.

Iran accelerates preparations for potential major conflict

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal citing Iranian and Arab officials, Tehran has prepared a comprehensive plan against the possibility of conflict reigniting in the Middle East. Sources indicated that Tehran views the memorandum signed with the US in June as an attempt by Washington and Israel to buy time ahead of a new offensive.

Iran has been conducting preparations over the past two months against the prospect of an expanded conflict. The report noted that officials have increased Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps oversight of the regular armed forces, appointed veterans of the Iran-Iraq War to key posts, expanded counterintelligence operations, and accelerated missile and drone production.

Data from Arab intelligence services indicates that Iran also maintains contact with armed groups in Yemen and Iraq. Tehran’s objective is reportedly to raise costs for the US and prevent a recurrence of the previous conflict.

The Wall Street Journal sources also reported that Tehran expects attempts to instigate domestic unrest. Commenting on the matter, Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran’s chief negotiator, said: “Iran is ready for a major conflict.”

The war between the US and Iran began in February. The two countries signed a ceasefire memorandum in June, but the resulting agreement lasted only a few weeks. Following the resumption of hostilities, Iran maintained its naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, while the US continued its blockade of Iranian vessels and ports.

Negotiations for a new agreement are currently suspended. Trump stated that the US is maintaining negotiations and economic pressure on Tehran, adding that ending the Iranian nuclear programme remains one of the primary goals of the American operation. However, citing its own sources, Al Arabiya reported on 17 August that Washington and Tehran had extended the peace agreement.

The presidential election to be held in France in the spring of 2027 will mark the end of the Emmanuel Macron era. Although the official election campaign has not yet begun, the principal political actors, including the right-wing National Rally (RN), have selected their candidates.

On 7 July, the Paris Court of Appeal effectively lifted the barrier to the eligibility of Marine Le Pen, leader of the RN group in the National Assembly, and Le Pen declared her candidacy on the same day.

Recent opinion polls show Le Pen significantly ahead of her rivals, including the ruling camp, with voter support between 34% and 35.5%.

Support for former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal of Macron’s centrist Renaissance party remains at 13-15%, while the vote share of Édouard Philippe, leader of the centre-right Horizons party who served as prime minister between 2017 and 2020, is measured at between 16.5% and 19%.

In March 2025, the court found Le Pen guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds and barred her from public office for five years.

Evaluating the appeal against the ruling, the Paris Court of Appeal upheld the conviction but ruled that there was no element of personal enrichment.

Under the finalised sentence, Le Pen was handed a fine of 100,000 euros, a three-year prison term with two years suspended, and a 45-month ban from public office with 30 months suspended.

Because the disqualification period was applied from the first-instance court’s decision of 31 March 2025, Le Pen effectively secured the right to contest the 2027 presidential election.

While the RN plans to unveil its election programme at the beginning of next year, Le Monde newspaper warned in an 18 August report that Le Pen’s pledge for a constitutional referendum on immigration would constitute “a coup d’état in form and substance”.

The referendum proposal in question was first raised by Le Pen ahead of the 2022 presidential election.

The RN group submitted this proposal to the National Assembly in January 2024 as a 14-article constitutional amendment bill titled “Citizenship, Identity, and Immigration”.

The text envisages restricting or abolishing birthright citizenship to make it harder for children of foreign nationals to acquire citizenship, introducing the principle of “national priority” in employment, housing, and social assistance, making it more difficult for refugees to obtain legal status, and tightening entry rules into the country.

A separate constitutional amendment block in the proposal aims to make French law superior to international obligations and European Union law in the Constitution of the Fifth Republic.

Le Pen explained the purpose of these regulations as “preventing supranational courts from forcing France to pursue policies contrary to the will of the French people”.

Following the 2024 parliamentary elections, the RN removed the most controversial article from the proposal. This article included a ban on appointing dual nationals to certain public posts.

Le Pen stated that this provision was removed from the text on the grounds that it could create a false impression of unequal treatment of people based on their origins.

No other changes were made to the draft, and Le Pen maintains her determination to enact the provisions.

According to Le Monde, Le Pen plans, in the event of an electoral victory, to combine the referendum with the first round of the parliamentary elections to be held immediately after the presidential election.

In this process, she aims to use Article 11 of the French Constitution, which empowers the head of state to submit an issue directly to a referendum without parliamentary debate.

Article 89 of the Constitution, however, stipulates that constitutional amendments must be approved by both the National Assembly and the Senate before being submitted to a popular vote.

Jean-Éric Schoettl, former Secretary General of the Constitutional Council, described Le Pen’s proposed method as a “double coup, both in procedure and substance”.

Laurent Fabius, the former president of the council, and Richard Ferrand, its current president, also stated that immigration does not fall under the scope of Article 11 and that the procedure in Article 89 must be applied.

The RN camp, for its part, points to the precedent set by Charles de Gaulle, who used Article 11 twice for constitutional changes.

General de Gaulle preferred this route in 1962 for the direct election of the president by universal suffrage, and in 1969 for the reform of the Senate and regional administration.

Philippe Olivier, a special adviser to Le Pen, pushed back against the criticism, asking: “Do Richard Ferrand and Laurent Fabius know the Constitution better than General de Gaulle, and do they reject the interpretation of the founder of the Fifth Republic?”

According to information obtained by Le Monde, Le Pen’s team prepared two alternative plans. The first scenario envisages amending Article 11 itself through the regular procedure in Article 89 to enable constitutional amendments via direct referendum.

The second and more radical scenario involves bypassing existing constitutional procedures entirely. In this case, the party would submit a revised new constitution to a referendum in line with its draft, and voters would cast their ballots as the “constituent people”, the direct source of the new constitutional order.

Although the European Union has significantly tightened its migration policy in recent years, the RN’s proposals go far beyond current European rules.

The draft conflicts with the EU acquis, particularly regarding the restriction of the right to asylum and the principle of national priority.

The national priority approach directly contradicts Article 7 of EU Regulation 492/2011, which guarantees equal treatment and non-discrimination for EU citizens working in another member state.

The new EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, which entered into force in June 2026, introduces a common procedural standard for international protection processes.

EU Regulation 2024/1348 also obliges member states to register and examine asylum applications made on their territory or at their borders.

Nicolas Hervieu, a professor of public and European law, stated that the RN’s attempt to place the French constitution above European norms could result in sanctions.

Hervieu indicated that the EU could freeze funds allocated to France, as seen in the cases of Poland and Hungary.

The Hungarian administration took harsh measures during the crisis triggered by the influx of refugees from North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia in 2015.

In 2020, Budapest bypassed EU rules by deciding to grant permission for asylum applications solely to individuals who had received refugee status at its embassies in Kyiv or Belgrade, turning away all other applicants at the border.

Brussels determined that this practice undermined the foundations of the union, and the EU Court of Justice fined Hungary 200 million euros in June 2024 for not accepting asylum seekers.

The court also ruled that the country must pay an additional daily fine of 1 million euros until the legislation is brought into compliance with EU standards.

In Poland, the freezing of funds was grounded on violations of the rule of law and judicial independence during the previous government.

However, disputes over migration continued under the new government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

In May 2024, the Tusk cabinet opposed the mandatory solidarity mechanism included in the new Pact on Migration and Asylum, which envisages assistance for countries under migration pressure; nevertheless, the text was adopted without amendment in the EU Council.

In response to the Polish government’s proposal to temporarily suspend the acceptance of asylum applications due to the situation on the Belarus border, the European Commission stated that Warsaw risked violating its international obligations.

Experts at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) emphasise that if Le Pen is elected, European partners must prepare for a “completely different” France.

According to expert assessments, it is considered possible not only that Paris would adopt a hostile stance towards EU institutions, but also that it would cease to be an ally on core foreign policy files of the union, including the war in Ukraine.

The ECFR report stated: “It is difficult to imagine Le Pen providing a decisive response to the security crisis on Europe’s eastern flank. Even under pressure from EU member states expecting a firmer stance against Russia, it is highly probable that Le Pen would lean towards concessions and negotiations rather than taking resolute steps.”

The German defence industry is concentrating rapidly around Munich, the capital of Bavaria, generating jobs and revenue whilst increasing its visibility.

The city is home to Helsing, currently among Europe’s most valuable private technology companies.

Advertisements for the €16 billion defence artificial intelligence firm are now visible across the city, displaying images of unmanned aerial vehicles and loitering munitions alongside the message to local residents: “We’ll handle it.”

Germany’s defence industry has expanded significantly in recent years, with Bavaria emerging as one of the primary beneficiaries.

Defence and aerospace start-ups in the state benefit from a combination of factors, meaning Helsing is merely one prominent example.

The region already hosts major corporations such as Airbus Defence & Space and KNDS, the manufacturer of the Leopard tank.

New defence start-ups proliferate in Bavaria

Yet this is only the beginning: new enterprises are emerging rapidly to supply weapons systems and space technology to the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and international clients.

Another rising player in the sector is Starflight Dynamics, a space and defence company developing orbital propulsion systems and other dual-use defence space technologies.

Founder Philipp Bauer was educated in Munich and worked for several years in the region’s established aerospace industry before launching his own venture in 2023.

Bauer told Euractiv:

“Munich in general was certainly no silver bullet, but the city’s strong set-up bringing together industry, research institutions, events, partners, and investors created a clear location advantage and played an important role in our development.”

The start-up aligns closely with the region’s ambition to establish itself as a space power, having secured both its first investor and its first customer in Munich.

It is currently preparing for the first in-orbit demonstration of its propulsion system.

ARX Robotics, a key player in military ground robotics used for logistics, battlefield evacuations, or machine-gun platforms, represents another example.

Founded by former German army officers, the defence technology company chose Bavaria due to its access to the Bundeswehr, the ability to scale up easily when required, and the opportunity to tap into scientific talent.

The company is now one of Europe’s leading manufacturers of autonomous unmanned ground systems and plans to expand into the United Kingdom.

ARX is currently working to retrofit legacy defence vehicles with autonomous driving capabilities.

Bavaria claims lion’s share of arms growth

Beyond Munich, the defence sector is expanding rapidly across Germany.

The national defence industry association, BDSV, has grown from 111 registered members at the end of 2021 to 602. Approximately one-third of these (201) are registered in Bavaria.

Johannes Binder, a defence economics expert at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, argues that four factors benefit the sector: an established defence industry, academics with an entrepreneurial culture, the presence of the armed forces, and a favourable political environment.

“What makes Munich and its surrounding area special is precisely that many of these advantages come together,” Binder said.

Starflight Chief Executive Bauer stressed that relationships between defence companies are vital.

Noting that firms must be able to trust and rely on one another, Bauer pointed out that geographic proximity helps in this regard.

Munich academic ecosystem contributes to growth

A major contributor to the defence start-up sector is the academic environment in and around Munich.

Bertram Brossardt, head of the Bavarian Industry Association, explained that universities in the region do not have “civil clauses”.

Such clauses are voluntary provisions committing institutions to focus exclusively on civilian research and exclude defence-related projects.

In 2024, Bavaria enacted the Law on the Promotion of the Bundeswehr, which banned such civil clauses in universities.

However, a court ruling in March clarified that there is no mandatory obligation to cooperate with the military.

Universities nevertheless foster an entrepreneurial spirit, and many actors in the burgeoning new defence sector originated there.

“This creates an extremely innovative environment,” said Binder of the Kiel Institute. “As a start-up, you want to be where there is a lot of dynamism, and Munich is precisely such a place that can already offer a great deal to the defence industry.”

For ARX Robotics, the region’s strong position in robotics, artificial intelligence, autonomy, and sensor technology was essential.

The company’s head of government relations added: “Munich was a logical choice. Nowhere else in Germany is there an ecosystem with such deep technological expertise.”

TYTAN Technologies is another Bavarian success story. An innovator in counter-drone defence, the company was commissioned by the Bundeswehr to develop a concept for protecting military installations and now collaborates with larger players such as Helsing and KNDS.

Having transitioned from a start-up to a scale-up, the company was founded at the Technical University of Munich and plans to expand by establishing a facility near Munich to produce up to 3,000 affordable, autonomous interceptors per month to meet orders from Ukraine and other regions.

A spokesperson noted that operating in the region “brings us close to talent, partners, investors, and end-users.”

Bundeswehr presence in Bavaria

Beyond innovation and access to academic resources, proximity to customers aids product sales.

The Bundeswehr maintains a substantial presence in Bavaria with approximately 60 bases and its own university in Munich, which forms part of NATO’s DIANA innovation accelerator programme.

In February, the Bundeswehr opened an innovation hub at a former air base in Erding, near Munich, designed to connect the military more effectively with innovative start-ups and academics.

Modelled on the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said of the centre: “Erding is set to become the centre of innovation within the Bundeswehr.”

Close ties with the Bundeswehr offer an additional location advantage. The national defence budget is projected to reach approximately €140 billion in 2027, an increase of about one-quarter over this year’s budget.

Bavarian state government backs arms industry

Industry in Bavaria also attributes part of its defence success to the region’s political environment.

Industry representative Brossardt recalled that the Bavarian government has always provided a supportive framework.

This dynamic became even more pronounced following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022.

Through the Bundeswehr Act passed in 2024, Bavaria lifted restrictions to accelerate military construction projects.

Earlier this year, similar bureaucratic hurdles for the defence industry were removed under the Law on the Promotion of the Defence Industry.

Led by the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), the sister party to the ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Bavaria can also leverage its political weight in Berlin.

“The CSU currently controls the Space Ministry and therefore wields certain influence in Berlin, enabling it to channel projects to its own state,” Binder explained.

However, Bernhard Poeltl, managing director of defence consultancy T60, argues that the sector’s strong presence is not necessarily due to favourable policies, but rather indirect effects:

“What I think is really moving fast right now and receiving political backing is planning permissions for new construction and expansion work. The days when things took an eternity and any environmentalist could veto them are long gone.”

According to Binder, the combination of these factors leads to “the emergence of specific clusters where many start-ups can thrive, ideas can spread, new companies can be established, and supply chains can be built up at a relatively local level.”