Middle East
German think tank urges cooperation with Türkiye in Syria
The German state should cooperate with the countries of the region, especially Türkiye, in the “reconstruction” of Syria, writes the influential Berlin-based German think tank, the Institute for International and Security Policy (SWP).
In recent days, Berlin and Brussels have intensified their efforts to gain influence in Syria. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier visited Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Türkiye this week to discuss the situation and prospects in Syria, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz discussed all these issues in a telephone conversation with the emir of Qatar on Tuesday.
EU foreign ministers also decided on Monday to suspend certain sanctions against Syria for a period of one year (e.g., those concerning the transport and financial sectors and energy infrastructure). However, the EU will also set up a mechanism for the immediate reinstatement of sanctions.
The EU is also campaigning for the HTS leadership in Syria to expel Russia’s Tartus naval base and the Khmeimim airbase from the region. On Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron telephoned Abu Mohammed al-Jolani (Ahmed al-Shara) and invited him to visit Paris in the coming weeks, suggesting that Paris has gained an advantage over Berlin in its quest for influence in Syria.
Years of German aid to Idlib not enough
This is why German government advisers are urging Berlin to work closely with Ankara, Riyadh, and Doha in its efforts to exert influence in Damascus. As German Development Minister Svenja Schulze reported in December, Berlin has for years maintained good relations with Idlib, which is controlled by the “terrorist organization” HTS, by funding aid projects there. However, while the interim government in Damascus is largely drawn from the power circles in Idlib, this is clearly not enough to have the desired effect.
That is why the Berlin-based Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) is calling for cooperation with Türkiye in the “reorganization and reconstruction of Syria.”
Ankara and Berlin propose a ‘geopolitical partnership’
According to an assessment by Yaşar Aydın in SWP, the first area of cooperation could be joint humanitarian aid and reconstruction projects for the reintegration of returning refugees. Another area would be reconstruction assistance for the Syrian armed forces, the disarmament of militias, and the securing and destruction of chemical weapons.
Pointing out that at the EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting Germany advocated the easing of EU sanctions and announced that it might work for their complete lifting in order to strengthen the transitional government and encourage it to accept Syrian refugees “fleeing the civil war,” the SWP writer said: “Berlin and Ankara should also act together geopolitically in the region. Both are interested in pushing back Iran’s hegemonic ambitions, especially in Syria, and in maintaining a balanced position vis-à-vis China, which has recently increased its influence through its mediation efforts between Iran and Saudi Arabia.”
German-Turkish partnership to stop Israeli operations?
Aydin argues that cooperation on Israel is also possible despite differences, arguing that a prolonged Israeli occupation of Syria would “alienate the population” and “push HTS towards an anti-Israel agenda.” Aydın reminds that the German Foreign Ministry has called on Israel not to establish any settlements on Syrian territory and reaffirmed its position that the Golan Heights belong to Syria according to international law, pointing out that Ankara and Berlin may have a common interest in reducing Israeli military operations.
Acknowledging that there may be a disagreement between the two countries on the issue of Kurdish autonomy and the YPG in Syria, Aydın argues that this disagreement can be overcome by Berlin mediating between Ankara and the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces, and writes: “Berlin is already holding talks with the YPG in coordination with Ankara.”
Ankara and Berlin’s Syria statements show ‘surprising synchronization’
“Türkiye is playing a central role in the reconstruction of Syria after the fall of the Assad regime,” Aydın said, arguing that Germany and Türkiye have a common interest in stabilizing Syria and the region “for both geopolitical and humanitarian reasons.” He argues that the Syria statements from Berlin and Ankara show a “surprising synchronization” in terms of content and believes that the two countries should work together despite their differences.
Aydin concludes his assessment as follows:
“The political stabilization of Syria through the reconciliation of interests between Ankara and the YPG in Syria would also create opportunities for the resolution of Türkiye’s armed conflict with the PKK. The advantages for Türkiye are obvious: Renewed economic ties with Syria, dynamic growth in both countries and the prospect of deeper regional economic integration. For Germany there will be opportunities for a development-oriented return policy and a better image in the Arab-Muslim world.”
EU-Gulf cooperation for Syria
Furthermore, the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) writes that the EU “will not be the most important player” in Syria in the near future but could take a common position with the Gulf Arab states in shaping Syria’s future.
The ECFR argues that the current Euro-Gulf relations offer great potential to “bring Syria the stability it deserves” and that despite its past, HTS has shown signs of “moderation” and “pragmatism” and that the Gulf countries therefore have a common interest in “making the New Syria work.”
The ECFR argues that the Europeans should seize the opportunity to define a common position with the Gulf on the future of Syria and that they share important interests with the Gulf Arab states in promoting a “stable Syria that contributes to regional stability,” “preventing the country from becoming a base for extremism” and ensuring the voluntary return of refugees.
On the other hand, ECFR writes that both the EU and the Gulf “should press Türkiye and Israel to end destabilizing military interventions that risk undermining the transition.”
Middle East
Qatar and UAE LNG tankers go dark in Strait of Hormuz to evade security risks
Qatar and United Arab Emirates liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers are turning off their transponders in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their logistical strategies in response to ongoing military conflict in the Middle East and the closure of the strategic waterway.
According to a Bloomberg report citing industry sources and vessel-tracking data, as time and patience run thin for both nations, tankers have begun operating under radio silence to conceal their movements and secure their LNG shipments.
The report noted that neither Qatar nor Abu Dhabi, the federal emirate of the UAE, is subject to international sanctions. Despite this, state-owned QatarEnergy and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) are employing these “going dark” tactics to minimize security risks for their vessels and crews transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessel-tracking data revealed that in May, at least four Qatari LNG vessels and four tankers linked to Abu Dhabi-based ADNOC transited the Strait of Hormuz without transmitting tracking signals. Sources speaking to Bloomberg stated that Qatari authorities requested captains of state-owned and chartered tankers to turn off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders when navigating around the Ras Laffan port—the world’s largest LNG export terminal—as well as when transiting or exiting the Persian Gulf.
The implemented security measures extend beyond turning off transponders. Sources reported that vessels have been instructed to transit the gulf in pairs to enhance security, and tanker captains who refused to comply with the “shadow” navigation protocols have been replaced.
Industry sources speaking to Bloomberg warned that the increase in covert transits undermines the fundamental rules of international maritime trade and transforms these shipping routes into high-risk areas.
They emphasized that until recently, every cargo in the LNG sector could be tracked in real time, but these newly adopted tactics have eliminated that transparency.
Saul Kavonic, a senior energy analyst at energy consultancy MST Marquee, commented on the situation, saying: “It is entirely natural for Persian Gulf LNG producers to try to avoid Iranian attacks and consequently adopt shadow fleet methods. This could persist as long as Iran continues to control and threaten transits through the Strait of Hormuz. This practice may continue for a long time even after a peace agreement is signed.”
Following the start of US and Israeli attacks on Iran, the Tehran government closed the Strait of Hormuz, a choke point for approximately 20% of global oil shipments and 30% of global liquefied natural gas.
After negotiations in Islamabad failed, US President Donald Trump announced on April 13 that he would impose a blockade on Iranian ports. In late May, he announced that the blockade was lifted as part of the planned peace treaty process with Tehran.
Middle East
Israeli defense exports hit record $19.2 billion fueled by regional conflicts
The Israeli Ministry of Defense has announced that international demand for military systems manufactured in the country and deployed in regional conflicts has reached unprecedented levels.
In an official statement, the ministry declared that exports of military equipment and weaponry have hit an all-time high for the fifth consecutive year.
According to the disclosed data, export volume reached $19.2 billion in 2025, representing an approximate 30% increase compared to the previous year. The figures demonstrate that the country’s defense exports have doubled over the past five years and quadrupled over the past decade.
Data shared by the ministry indicates that missile, rocket, and air defense systems secured the largest share of military sales contracts signed throughout 2025.
Sales in this sector accounted for 29% of the total trade volume. The ministry noted that the vast majority of these agreements fell into the category of “mega-contracts”—each valued at a minimum of $100 million—and that these large-scale deals constituted 53% of the total export volume.
The Ministry of Defense directly attributed this export growth to ongoing regional military operations.
The statement argued that global demand was driven by results achieved on the ground and the “combat-proven” performance of Israeli-made systems across all fronts, including the “Rising Lion” operation launched against Iran in June 2025.
Since October 7, 2023, Israel has conducted simultaneous military operations across multiple fronts in Gaza, Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran.
The military equipment and ammunition described as “combat-tested” in the ministry’s report continue to be deployed in active conflict zones, most notably in Lebanon.
Among the defense firms highlighted during this period is the Israel-based company Xtend, which has drawn attention for its unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Systems developed by the company have reportedly been utilized in operations in Gaza and for targeted assassinations. International reports revealed that an Xtend UAV was used to locate Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who was killed in October 2024.
Earlier in the year, Eric Trump, son of US President Donald Trump, announced that he would make significant investments in Xtend’s technology and support the company’s merger with the Florida-based JFB Construction Holdings.
Meanwhile, airstrikes and bombings conducted by the Israeli military continue to drive up civilian casualties in Gaza and Lebanon. In Lebanon alone, attacks over the past few months have claimed more than 3,400 lives. Thousands of deaths have also been reported in US-backed military operations carried out in Iran.
Studies published in the medical journal The Lancet project that the total death toll in Gaza, when including both direct and indirect fatalities, could reach hundreds of thousands.
During this period, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has supported Israel’s operations, emerged as one of the largest buyers of Israeli-origin weapons.
The Gulf nation is reported to have procured billions of dollars in military equipment from Israel over the past five years. According to US sources, the Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv administrations have established a joint fund to develop and procure new weapons systems.
On the other hand, as Tel Aviv continues to market its air defense systems globally, military tensions along the Lebanese border persist.
Hizbullah kamikaze drones have reportedly targeted Iron Dome batteries positioned at Israeli locations near the Lebanese border. The Israeli military has reportedly faced difficulties intercepting these attacks, with dozens of Israeli soldiers killed in Hizbullah strikes launched since March 2.
Middle East
Report challenges official assessments of damage from Iranian attacks on US military assets
BBC Verify, the verification unit of the BBC, published a detailed investigation on June 1 based on satellite imagery and video analysis that found Iranian retaliatory strikes had successfully hit and damaged at least 20 US military facilities across the Middle East since the start of the war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel.
The findings suggest that the scale and accuracy of Iran’s retaliatory attacks were significantly greater than previously acknowledged by US officials. Some independent analysts estimate that the number of affected bases may be as high as 28.
The military facilities targeted were reportedly spread across eight Gulf countries: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Oman.
Material losses in the region are said to include three THAAD missile defense batteries, each valued at approximately $1 billion and regarded as a cornerstone of the regional defense network.
Expert assessments also identified at least 42 aircraft that were destroyed or severely damaged, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones and an E-3 Sentry airborne early warning and surveillance aircraft valued at $700 million.
According to military analysts, Iran achieved these results by altering its tactics. Rather than relying on large-scale, high-volume barrages, Tehran reportedly shifted to using smaller, more precise salvos concentrated on high-value infrastructure targets.
The shift in strategy was said to have exploited what was described as a degree of complacency within the US military during the early stages of the conflict.
US military commanders reportedly failed to relocate aircraft and other military assets at strategic installations such as Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia despite previous attacks on those facilities, a factor that is said to have increased losses. Commenting on the strikes, Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that the Middle East was no longer a “safe place” for US bases.
The White House had previously claimed that Iran’s military capabilities had been almost entirely eliminated.
However, the Pentagon’s latest estimates place the cost of the war at $29 billion.
A substantial portion of that expenditure is reportedly being directed toward repairing heavily damaged military equipment and replenishing significantly depleted munitions stockpiles. Former military officials have warned that damaged air defense systems in the region “cannot be replaced quickly or easily.”
The heavy consumption of interceptor missiles during the conflict has also left other US facilities across the Gulf increasingly vulnerable to future Iranian precision-guided missile attacks, according to the assessments cited.
The Washington administration is also reported to have sought restrictions on satellite imagery providers in an effort to conceal the extent of the damage and limit criticism.
However, the “smoking craters” and flattened aircraft hangars featured in the BBC report appear to contradict official US assertions, illustrating what the report described as the true scale of the destruction on the ground.
Iran also announced that it struck a US air base in Kuwait with missiles and drones on Sunday night in retaliation for attacks by US forces on Iranian military targets over the weekend, which Tehran said constituted a violation of the ceasefire.
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