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Global markets remain in shock: Nikkei, Dow Jones, Kospi at lows

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Japan’s Nikkei 225 stock index started the week down 12.4%, continuing the sell-off that has rocked global markets as investors fretted over the state of the US economy.

The Nikkei closed down 4,451.28 points at 31,458.42. The broader TOPIX index fell 12.8% as selling intensified in the afternoon.

Earlier on Monday, the S&P 500 Index fell 2.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6%, turning the trading outlook on Wall Street negative.

The report, which showed that hiring by US employers slowed much more than expected last month, according to AP, shook financial markets and destroyed the euphoria that had lifted the Nikkei to an all-time high above 42,000 in recent weeks.

The Nikkei 225 fell 5.8 per cent on Friday, its worst two-day drop ever. Its worst one-day drop was on 20 October 1987, the so-called “Black Monday”, when it fell 3,836 points, or 14.9%. That Monday was grim enough, with the benchmark falling as much as 13.4% at one point.

Tokyo stocks have been falling since the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its key interest rate on Wednesday. The Nikkei is currently down 3.8% year-on-year.

One of the factors that prompted the BoJ to raise rates was the ongoing weakness of the Japanese yen, which has pushed inflation above the central bank’s 2% target. Early on Monday, the dollar fell to 142.59 yen from 146.45 at the end of Friday, well below levels of over 160 yen a few weeks ago. The euro also fell from $1.0923 to $1.0914.

Stocks hit highs earlier this year on the back of developments in artificial intelligence.

The recent sell-off has also hit markets dominated by computer chip makers such as Samsung Electronics and other technology stocks: South Korea’s Kospi fell more than 9 per cent on Monday as Samsung’s shares fell 11.6 per cent. The Kospi closed down 8.8 per cent at 2,441.55.Taiwan’s Taiex also lost 8.4 per cent as the world’s biggest chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. fell 9.8 per cent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 2.2% to 16,579.97 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index fell 3.7% to 7,649.60.

Double whammy on Borsa Istanbul

The Shanghai Composite Index, which has been somewhat isolated from other world markets by capital controls, initially rose but then fell 1.5 per cent to 2,862.56.

The S&P 500’s 1.8 per cent drop on Friday was the first consecutive loss of at least 1 per cent since April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 2.4 per cent, 10 per cent below the record it set last month. Investors call a decline at these levels a “correction”.

On the Borsa Istanbul, the circuit breaker system connected to the index was activated at 09:55:22 following a 6.72 per cent drop in the morning. Then, as the decline in the index deepened, the circuit breaker was activated for the second time. The BIST 100 index fell below the critical 10,000 points.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday after weaker-than-expected US payrolls data fueled fears that high interest rates to curb inflation could drag the US economy into recession.

The VIX, an index that measures how worried investors are about an impending drop in the S&P 500, jumped nearly 26% early on Monday. Eventually, the VIX rose to 34. The VIX, which is considered Wall Street’s “fear indicator”, last reached this level in June 2020. Bitcoin, which recently soared to nearly $70,000, fell 14 per cent to $54,155.

Oil prices also fell, with US benchmark crude down 74 cents to $72.78 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 67 cents to $76.14 a barrel.

Artificial intelligence stocks plunge

Artificial intelligence stocks fell as much as 9.6%, with Apple down 6.1%. Microsoft, Meta and Tesla also lost more than 5%.

While the largest US companies fell on Tradegate in Germany, Nvidia led the “Magnificent Seven” group in the decline of US stock index futures.

Nvidia fell as much as 17% on Tradegate, while Apple fell 10%, Microsoft 9%, Alphabet 9.6%, Amazon 9.3%, Meta 10% and Tesla 10%.

According to Bloomberg, these moves are a sign that “the air is coming out of the equity markets, driven by big gains in a small number of stocks”.

It notes that if confidence in the AI trade continues to fall on weak earnings and the US economy really takes a hit, there could be more losses to come.

However, it points out that a “window of opportunity” could open for investors, especially if central banks take action to cut interest rates, which could support sectors that benefit from low borrowing costs.

Goldman Sachs: A healthy correction

In a report, IG’s Yeap Jun Rong said investors will be watching data on the US services sector from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday, which could help determine whether the global sell-off was an overreaction.

The global rout began just days after US stock indexes had their best day in months after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest sign yet that inflation is slowing enough to start cutting interest rates in September.

Now there are growing concerns that the Fed may have increased the risk of recession in the world’s largest economy by keeping its key interest rate at a two-decade high for too long.

On the other hand, Christian Mueller-Glissmann of Goldman Sachs told Bloomberg that the market situation shows a “somewhat healthy correction”. He also argued that while the weakness in US data was a surprise, Goldman Sachs economists were “not that worried”.

Bets on an immediate rate cut: Will the Fed cut in a week?

The market turmoil is fuelling bets on an immediate policy response from the Fed.

Investors are currently pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bp cut within a week.

Given that the central bank announced its last decision just a few days ago, this is seen as a real sign of concern.

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US Treasury threat to countries hosting branches of Russian banks

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The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has threatened other countries that the opening of branches or subsidiaries of Russian banks abroad could be an attempt by Russia to evade sanctions imposed over the war in Ukraine.

OFAC warned foreign banks to exercise caution when dealing with newly opened foreign branches or subsidiaries of Russian financial institutions.

This warning includes entities not subject to US sanctions.

Foreign financial institutions dealing with such branches or affiliates should consider that they present significant sanctions risks, including account services, funds transfers or payments, trade finance, and other services such as insurance,’ the statement said.

However, it noted that transactions related to food, agriculture, medicine, energy, and telecommunications are still permitted activities.

OFAC stressed that the Treasury Department ‘has a number of tools at its disposal to thwart Russia’s attempts to finance its defence industry’. One such tool is the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA).

In 2021, the US amended the BSA to empower US regulators to request information from foreign banks with correspondent accounts in the US about any account, including information stored overseas, as part of investigations.

“OFAC’s new warning will lead to an expansion of the practice of closing accounts and suspending other related financial services,” said investment banker Yevgeny Kogan on his Telegram channel.

“The US Treasury has scared everyone so much that it now resembles racial discrimination. There are cases of reluctance to do business with people who do not live or work in Russia, but who also have a Russian passport or whose place of birth is listed in foreign citizenship as the Russian Federation/USSR,” Kogan added.

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US seizes Maduro’s plane

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The United States has seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s plane after determining that its purchase violated US sanctions, among other “criminal matters”. The plane, seized in the Dominican Republic, was flown to Florida on Monday, two US officials said.

This sends a message all the way to the top,’ one of the US officials told CNN. The seizure of a foreign head of state’s plane is unheard of in criminal cases. We are sending a clear message here that no one is above the law, no one is above the reach of US sanctions,’ a US official told CNN.

The plane, described by officials as Venezuela’s equivalent of Air Force One, has also been seen during Maduro’s previous state visits around the world.

Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader said the plane seized by the US on Monday was registered ‘in the name of an individual’ and not the Venezuelan government.

Dominican Foreign Minister Roberto Álvarez said the country’s attorney general’s office had received an order from a national court last May to ‘immobilise’ the plane.

The minister said the US had requested the aircraft’s immobilisation in order to search for ‘evidence and objects related to fraudulent activities, smuggling of goods for illegal activities and money laundering’.

The Department of Justice has seized an aircraft that we allege was illegally purchased for $13 million through a shell company and smuggled out of the US for use by Nicolás Maduro and his cronies,’ US Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.

The Department of Justice alleged that the aircraft, a Dassault Falcon 900EX, was purchased from a company in Florida and illegally exported from the US to Venezuela via the Caribbean in April 2023.

According to the Justice Department, the plane was used for Maduro’s international travel and “flew almost exclusively to and from a military base in Venezuela”.

The aircraft was seized for violations of U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and other criminal matters related to this aircraft that we are still investigating,’ Anthony Salisbury, special agent in charge of Homeland Security Investigations, told CNN.

A senior official in the Dominican Republic told CNN that Maduro’s plane was undergoing maintenance on Dominican territory at the time it was seized by US authorities.

The source added that the government had no record of Maduro’s private plane being in the country until it was seized.

According to one of the US officials, US authorities worked closely with the Dominican Republic, which notified Venezuela that the plane had been seized.

According to US officials, several federal agencies were involved in the seizure of the plane, including Homeland Security Investigations, Commerce agents, the Bureau of Industry and Security, and the Department of Justice.

Records show that the plane’s last registered flight was from Caracas to the Dominican capital, Santo Domingo, in March.

In a statement on Monday, the Venezuelan government described the seizure as ‘piracy’ and accused Washington of stepping up its ‘aggression’ against Maduro’s government following July’s presidential election.

Once again, in a recurring criminal practice that can only be described as piracy, the US authorities have illegally seized an aircraft used by the President of the Republic, justifying their action with the coercive measures they have illegally and unilaterally imposed around the world,’ the statement said.

The US has shown that it uses its economic and military power to intimidate and pressure states like the Dominican Republic to serve as ‘accomplices in criminal acts’, Venezuela said, adding that what had happened was ‘an example of the so-called ‘rules-based order’, which seeks to establish the law of the strongest in defiance of international law’.

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Fed’s ‘leading inflation’ expectations unchanged; eurozone inflation down to 2.2 per cent

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation held steady at 2.5 per cent in the 12 months to July, according to data released on Friday that could pave the way for the Fed to start cutting interest rates next month.

The Fed’s target for the headline personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index is 2 per cent annually. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, came in at 2.6 per cent, below expectations of 2.7 per cent.

The figures from the Commerce Department came after Fed chairman Jay Powell said last week that it was “time” to start cutting interest rates as inflation fell and the labour market slowed.

The core PCE data, which is expected after yesterday’s strong US growth data, plays an important role in the Fed’s assessment of inflation.

In the US, personal spending rose by 0.5% in July, in line with expectations, and personal income rose by 0.3%, slightly above expectations of 0.2%.

Core PCE measures the rate of inflation faced by consumers when purchasing goods and services, excluding food and energy prices.

US government bond prices fell slightly following the release of the data. The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which rises when prices fall, rose 0.03 percentage point during the day to 3.92%. The S&P 500 was up 0.7% shortly after the opening bell on Wall Street.

Eurozone inflation fell sharply in August to 2.2 per cent, the lowest level in three years.

The rate reinforced expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates next month.

Friday’s preliminary figure was in line with the 2.2 per cent forecast in a Reuters poll and below last month’s rate of 2.6 per cent.

The Eurostat data came after Germany and Spain this week reported sharper-than-expected declines in August.

France also reported on Friday that inflation fell to 2.2 per cent, but the figure was higher than expected and some economists attributed the drop to price pressures from the Paris Olympics.

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