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Global military spending hits record $2.89 trillion as NATO and China accelerate modernization

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Global defense spending reached a new record of $2.887 trillion in 2025, marking a 2.9% increase over the previous year, according to the “Trends in World Military Expenditure, 2025” report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The organization’s annual review noted that defense spending has now risen for 11 consecutive years, climbing by 41% over the past decade. Based on current data, military outlays accounted for 2.5% of global gross domestic product (GDP). Average defense spending worldwide represented 6.9% of total public expenditure, with per capita spending calculated at $352.

Fifteen countries accounted for $2.304 trillion of the total, representing 80% of global expenditure. The top five spenders remained unchanged from 2024: the US, China, Russia, Germany, and India. These five nations collectively spent $1.686 trillion on defense in 2025, representing 58% of the global total.

The US, which has long maintained its position as the world leader in military spending, allocated $954 billion to defense in 2025. While this figure represents 33% of global expenditure, US spending saw a 7.5% decrease compared to 2024. SIPRI analysts attribute this decline to a sharp reduction in foreign aid provided to other countries through supplemental appropriations above the Pentagon’s baseline budget.

Between 2022 and 2025, a total of $127 billion was allocated to the US Department of Defense to support Ukraine; by the end of 2025, $65.1 billion of that amount had been expended. Additionally, a $13 billion supplemental allocation was provided to the Pentagon in 2024 for support to Israel. Although no new supplemental resources were earmarked for either Ukraine or Israel in 2025, it was noted that Israel continued to receive $3.8 billion in aid under a specific mechanism financed through the State Department budget covering the 2019–2028 period.

Washington’s priorities in 2025 included the modernization of nuclear weapons and the development of advanced weaponry. The primary objective of these investments is reportedly to maintain US military superiority in the Western Hemisphere and to counterbalance China in the Asia-Pacific region.

China, ranked second, allocated $336 billion to defense in 2025, accounting for 12% of global spending. Beijing has increased its military expenditure for 31 consecutive years, with spending rising by 7.4% over 2024 and by 62% over the last decade (2016–2025). These investments are directed toward the comprehensive modernization of the People’s Liberation Army by 2035.

As part of this effort, China conducted tests of J-36 and J-50 sixth-generation fighter aircraft in 2025, while the H-20 strategic bomber reached “initial operational capability” (IOC). The SIPRI report clarifies that the term IOC signifies that a system is deemed sufficient to perform missions under actual combat conditions, has reached a minimum authorized number of platforms, and has trained personnel ready for operational deployment. This stage should not be confused with “full operational capability” (FOC), where systems are fully deployed across all scenarios and scales.

Russia maintained its third-place ranking in 2025, spending $190 billion on defense, a 6.6% global share. While Moscow’s military spending increased by 5.9% compared to 2024, this was the slowest growth rate recorded since the start of large-scale hostilities in 2022. Nevertheless, the burden of military spending on the Russian economy remained high, equivalent to 7.5% of GDP and 20% of total government expenditure.

Analysts also highlighted a shift in Russia’s military procurement processes. As the conflict in Ukraine evolved into a “war of attrition,” Russia aimed to limit operational costs by turning toward lower-cost weapon systems, specifically increasing the utilization of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

SIPRI utilizes approximate estimates for data concerning countries such as Russia, China, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia. Sergey Chemezov, head of Rostec, criticized SIPRI’s calculation methods regarding defense sector companies, stating that countries like Russia and China do not share such data publicly. Chemezov emphasized that the data in question is classified and asserted that the institute’s figures are produced through unrealistic means.

Germany increased its military spending by 24% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching $114 billion (a 3.9% global share). SIPRI pointed out that Berlin has recorded double-digit growth in defense spending for three consecutive years. For the first time since 1990, Germany surpassed the threshold of 2% of GDP, reaching 2.3% in 2025. The Berlin administration reportedly plans to increase this ratio to 3.5% by 2029.

India raised its defense spending by 8.9% annually to $92.1 billion in 2025 (a 3.2% global share). Skirmishes with Pakistan in May 2025 involving fighter jets, missiles, and UAVs were cited as a decisive factor in this increase, with New Delhi raising its aviation budget by 18% during this period.

On a regional basis, the share of the Americas in global military spending decreased by 5.5% over the last decade to 37%, while Europe’s share rose by 11% to reach 30%. Total military spending by the 32 NATO member states in 2025 amounted to $1.581 trillion, representing 55% of the global total.

Alliance members reportedly aim to increase military spending to 5% of national GDP by 2035. Under this target, 3.5% is expected to be allocated to core military requirements, with 1.5% dedicated to other defense and security-related expenditures. The SIPRI report noted that clear criteria for core versus ancillary military spending have not yet been established within NATO. This lack of definition is said to reduce transparency and complicate public oversight, with warnings that some members might include non-military expenditures under defense headings to meet political targets. The report cited Italy’s plan to include a bridge project in Sicily within its 2025 military expenditure as an example of this trend.

Diplomacy

Vance leads indirect push for US-Iran ceasefire and nuclear talks

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US Vice-President JD Vance has been personally involved over the past two weeks in indirect talks with Iran aimed at securing a fresh ceasefire and restarting nuclear negotiations.

According to Axios, Vance’s intense engagement indicates that he has taken it upon himself to extract the US from the conflict, which he views as responsible for the Republican Party’s shocking losses in this week’s elections.

This elevates the latest round of indirect talks to the highest echelons of the administration.

US officials and regional sources state that Trump is currently willing to let diplomatic efforts run their course to see whether any agreement is achievable.

Asked by reporters on Friday what his message was to Iran, Trump said, “We are talking to them.”

According to sources with direct knowledge of the matter, Vance speaks almost daily with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir, and other mediators regarding the negotiations with Iran.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s adviser and son-in-law, are also involved in the process.

Sources say Vance and the Qatari and Pakistani mediators have been discussing the possibility of holding a working-level technical meeting between the US and Iran in the coming days, though this has not yet materialized.

Before the war began in late February, Vance was among the most sceptical voices in Trump’s inner circle on the issue, advocating instead for a diplomatic solution.

In April, he led the US negotiating delegation at the Iran summit held in Islamabad and was personally involved in the talks that yielded a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the US and Iran in June.

Vance subsequently headed the US delegation during a series of direct talks with Iran in Switzerland.

Two weeks ago, Vance sent a letter to Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, proposing that direct negotiations resume.

Rezaei is one of the closest advisers to Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Iranian officials noted that Vance’s letter generated positive momentum toward restarting talks.

On Wednesday, Vance said the war was the primary reason for the Republicans’ repudiation at the polls.

Sources involved in mediation efforts report that while progress is being made, the process is moving very slowly.

On Friday evening, the prime minister of Qatar said, “Over the past few weeks, we worked with our colleagues in the US administration who have a sincere intention to contain the situation and de-escalate. Thanks to them and the voices of reason in Tehran, we prevented the situation from spinning out of control.”

The prime minister added that discussions with the Trump administration continued following the midterm elections, though they were not as active as in previous days “because there are other matters.”

Nevertheless, he noted that the US intention to find a diplomatic resolution “remains ongoing” and emphasized that an agreement is possible.

On Friday morning, Trump and the Emir of Qatar discussed Qatari efforts to bridge differences between the US and Iran as part of an accord.

According to a statement from his office, Sheikh Tamim emphasized the necessity of “pursuing dialogue and diplomatic channels to resolve differences, prevent the region from facing further escalation, and ensure freedom of maritime navigation as well as the security of energy supplies.”

Separately, Trump confirmed on Friday that the US military conducted a strike on an anti-aircraft missile launcher on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz after it fired a missile at a US fighter jet.

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Ukraine faces demographic collapse as fertility rates slide

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British magazine The Economist reported that mobilization, conflict casualties, and pervasive uncertainty have left Ukraine confronting the threat of demographic collapse.

According to data cited by the magazine, Ukraine’s fertility rate has declined from 1.2 children per woman in 2020 to between 0.8 and 0.9.

This rate marks a lower level than that of any major nation except South Korea.

In the first half of 2026, the number of deaths in Ukraine surpassed the number of newborn babies threefold.

The report noted that ever since independence was gained in 1991, the number of births in the country has lagged behind the number of deaths every year.

The Economist emphasized that the demographic collapse driven by the ongoing fighting constitutes an “existential threat.”

The magazine identified mass refugee migration as the principal driver of the population loss.

More than 5 million Ukrainians reside abroad, predominantly in Europe.

The proportion of those wishing to return among those who left the country is also steadily shrinking.

According to data from the Centre for Economic Strategy (CES), the share of those seeking to return dropped from 74% in 2022 to 43%.

The fact that the majority of refugees consist of Ukrainian children and women under the age of 44 further aggravates the demographic picture.

The Kyiv government decided to exempt men under the age of 25 from mobilization to alleviate the demographic decline.

The magazine reported, however, that many young people have fled the country, while those who remain do not plan to start families.

Projections cited in the report indicate that even if hostilities cease in the coming years, Ukraine can, at best, expect merely a deceleration of depopulation.

Olga Duhnich, an expert at the Ukraine-based think tank Frontier Institute, stated that the generation born in the 1990s and 2000s is the least populous in Ukraine’s modern history, meaning the country cannot expect a post-conflict baby boom.

The United Nations (UN) projects that Ukraine’s population will decline by 0.7% to 0.9% each year over the next two decades.

Under this projection, Ukraine’s population will fall to approximately 25 million by 2040.

If hostilities drag on, people are expected to abandon plans to have children, deepening the crisis even further.

Beyond exempting men under 25 from mobilization, the Kyiv government is rolling out various support packages to boost birth rates.

Under legislation enacted in the country, parents who have children receive a direct payment of 50,000 hryvnias (around $1,100).

Parents are also paid 7,000 hryvnias each month during the first year.

Other state programmes subsidize childcare costs, while Ukrainian soldiers are granted free freezing of egg and sperm cells.

Ukrainian Minister of Social Policy Denis Ulyutin said in May to the Livyi Bereh media outlet that roughly 22 to 25 million people lived in government-controlled territories.

Ulyutin characterized the prevailing picture by saying: “This is a catastrophe.”

Ella Libanova, Director of the Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Research, estimated the population at 29 million during the same period.

Libanova attributed the steep fall from a population of 30 million in 2025 to high death rates and the demographic crisis.

In a statement in October, Libanova announced that Ukraine’s population had slipped to 28.5 million.

Institute Director Libanova said: “The population is already at 28.5 million; we lost half a million people. We lost them, but thankfully this was still caused by migration rather than casualties.”

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Armenian opposition urged to form joint front against constitution

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Narek Karapetyan, a lawmaker and head of the Strong Armenia faction in the Armenian parliament, has urged opposition parties to unite around four core principles set out in a joint declaration.

The key points of the declaration include resisting territorial concessions and blocking the adoption of a new constitution, which the opposition has termed the “Aliyev constitution”.

According to a report by Aysor.am, Narek Karapetyan stated that the opposition meeting was originally planned to be led by his uncle, businessman and Strong Armenia movement leader Samvel Karapetyan.

“We initiated the meeting, but the authorities took preemptive steps to prevent Samvel Karapetyan from launching the national unification process,” Narek Karapetyan said.

Noting that, despite these events, opposition representatives convened and signed a joint declaration based on four agreed articles, Narek Karapetyan invited other opposition forces and members of the public to join the alliance.

“We will not allow them to implement the Aliyev constitution in Armenia. We must unite,” Karapetyan said.

Ahead of these developments, Armenian National Security Service personnel detained Strong Armenia Party leader Samvel Karapetyan following a search of his home.

The party’s press secretary, Agavni Sukiasyan, announced that on the morning of the same day, the Investigative Committee of Armenia searched the homes of both Samvel Karapetyan and Narek Karapetyan.

In a report citing the Investigative Committee, Armenpress stated that Samvel Karapetyan was detained as part of a case involving allegations of causing large-scale financial damage to the Electric Networks of Armenia (ENA) company, embezzling entrusted property, and money laundering.

According to committee figures, the total damage inflicted on the company exceeds $179 million.

Narek Karapetyan’s home was also searched at the end of July as part of a criminal case.

On 22 July, Armenia’s Central Electoral Commission approved the Prosecutor General’s request to strip Narek Karapetyan of his parliamentary immunity, and Karapetyan was charged with large-scale money laundering.

According to information reported by Sputnik Armenia, the investigation is linked to charges brought against Strong Armenia supporter Aleksan Aleksanyan.

Investigative authorities allege that Aleksanyan received approximately $4.4 million and €230,000 from the Karapetyan-owned Tashir Foundation under the guise of gifts and loans.

Several criminal cases had previously been opened against Samvel Karapetyan.

In 2025, Karapetyan was charged with publicly calling for the violent seizure of power after backing the Armenian Apostolic Church, which had been criticized by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

In January, legal proceedings were also launched against Karapetyan on charges of large-scale tax evasion and money laundering.

Separately, in early July 2025, the Armenian parliament approved a bill enabling the nationalization of the Electric Networks of Armenia company.

In March, Armenia’s Constitutional Court ruled that the nationalization process in question complied with the law.

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