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India and Pakistan boost military capacity amid rising tensions

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Former military officials and experts state that nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan have significantly increased their military capabilities following the 2019 clashes, a situation that raises the risk of escalation even in a limited conflict. Tensions are rising between the Indian and Pakistani armies.

Pakistan claims India is planning military intervention after New Delhi blamed Islamabad for a deadly attack on local tourists in the Kashmir region last month. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he would punish those who supported the attack in a way they “cannot imagine.”

Pakistan denies involvement in the attack but warns it will retaliate if targeted.

In 2019, India conducted airstrikes inside Pakistan after a bombing of an Indian military convoy in Kashmir, stating it had destroyed “terrorist camps.” Pakistani jets conducted retaliatory airstrikes in operations lasting two days and shot down an Indian aircraft. Now, retaliations are occurring intermittently between the Indian and Pakistani armies.

The neighboring countries have fought three wars in 1948, 1965, and 1971, and have clashed countless times since gaining independence, mostly over the Kashmir region, which both claim. Both countries acquired nuclear weapons in the 1990s, and Kashmir is considered one of the world’s most dangerous conflict zones. The Indian and Pakistani armies have since increased their capabilities against potential conflicts.

Military experts state that neither side would consider using nuclear weapons unless cornered, but the risk of escalation is high even in a limited conflict.

Experts speaking to Reuters stated that in such a conflict, it is likely that aircraft, missiles, or drones, which are considered to be of equal strength between India and Pakistan, would be used.

Frank O’Donnell, a visiting fellow in the South Asia Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, said, “Decision-makers in both countries are more willing to take risks in initiating and escalating conflict than they were before 2019.”

“However, without a clear mutual understanding of precise actions, this could inadvertently lead to escalation,” he added.

Both sides have acquired new conventional strike options by purchasing new military equipment since 2019.

Muhammad Faisal, a South Asia security researcher at the University of Technology Sydney, said, “Both sides will think they are in a better position than last time. But we will only know this when we see a real conflict.”

India, in particular, felt it was at a disadvantage in 2019 because it had to rely on aging Russian jets. Since then, it has purchased 36 French-made Rafale fighter jets, considered one of the best Western aircraft, and has ordered more for its navy.

In contrast, Pakistan began purchasing batches of China’s J-10, one of its most advanced fighter jets and considered equivalent to the Rafale, starting in 2022. According to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Pakistan has at least 20 of these aircraft.

The aircraft have advanced capabilities similar to the Rafale, which is equipped with Meteor air-to-air missiles that operate beyond visual range. A Pakistani security official, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media, said the J-10 is also equipped with similar PL-15 missiles.

To fill gaps in air defense that emerged during the 2019 conflict, India purchased Russia’s battle-tested S-400 mobile anti-aircraft missile system. Pakistan, on the other hand, acquired the HQ-9 from China, which is a lower-tier system based on Russia’s S-300 system.

Anil Golani, a former air marshal in the Indian Air Force and director general of the Center for Air Power Studies think tank in Delhi, said, “In some ways, we are definitely in a better position (than in 2019).”

Speaking to Reuters, Golani added, “The call for action in the country is very high, but in my personal assessment, neither India nor Pakistan wants an all-out conflict.”

On the other hand, the US and China factors are also being discussed. China is India’s rival and Pakistan’s close ally and largest military equipment supplier. The US, meanwhile, has strong relations with India.

Muhammad Faisal from the University of Technology Sydney said, “This could be a competition between Western and Chinese technology,” adding, “For India, there is a dilemma regarding how many air squadrons to allocate to the Pakistan front, as it also needs to defend against China.”

China and India fought a brief border war in 1962, and the two armies clashed most recently in 2022 on the tense Himalayan border.

Pakistan has a fleet of F-16 aircraft purchased during periods when its relations with Washington were stronger. These F-16s were used in the 2019 conflict, leading India to issue a protest note to the US, although New Delhi currently has much closer relations with Washington.

Experts said that this time, to avoid a political tension with F-16s and to leverage the advantage of having more advanced aircraft, Pakistan would likely lead with its Chinese-made J-10s.

However, a drone or ground-launched missile attack is considered more likely because there is no risk of the pilot being shot down.

India has turned to Israel for combat-capable drones and purchased the Heron Mark 2. It has also ordered Predator drones from the US. According to the Pakistani security official, Pakistan has purchased Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2, which Ukraine used in its war with Russia, and also the Akıncı UAV from Turkey.

Amidst the ongoing tension, Pakistan conducted a test of a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 km (280 miles) on Saturday. A statement from the country’s army said the test was conducted to demonstrate the armed forces’ readiness to “protect national security against any aggression.” Pakistan also has short and medium-range missiles that can be fired from land, sea, and air.

India has not yet commented on the test. India’s capabilities include the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile with a range of approximately 300 km and the Agni series of intercontinental ballistic missiles.

The 2019 conflict nearly spiraled out of control with numerous missile strike threats.

Kaiser Tufail, a former fighter pilot in the Pakistan Air Force, said India failed to achieve deterrence in 2019, so this time it would aim for a sharper attack, which would bring more risk.

Modi implied after the 2019 clashes that they felt the lack of the Rafale fighter jets ordered at the time and that the outcome of the conflict might have been different if they had the French fighter jets.

“If you go beyond what we saw in 2019, that becomes very risky,” Tufail said, adding, “It is extremely dangerous for nuclear-armed countries to clash with each other.”

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China launches patrols east of Taiwan after Japan and Philippines open maritime boundary talks

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01/06/2026

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Beijing said it had conducted law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan in response to a decision by Japan and the Philippines to launch talks on maritime boundary delimitation.

According to a statement from the China Coast Guard, a flotilla led by the vessel Daishan carried out law enforcement patrols “in accordance with the law” on Monday.

China Coast Guard spokesperson Jiang Lue said the operation was “a necessary action” in response to Japan and the Philippines “unilaterally announcing the start of negotiations on maritime delimitation in waters east of China’s Taiwan Island.”

“Such an announcement seriously infringes upon China’s territorial sovereignty and its maritime rights and interests,” Jiang said.

“We urge Japan and the Philippines to immediately cease all illegal actions that violate China’s sovereignty and rights,” he added.

Jiang also said the coast guard would continue strengthening its control and management of the relevant waters and that China would take concrete measures to “resolutely safeguard territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”

The United States and most of its allies, including Japan and the Philippines, do not recognize Taiwan as an independent state and acknowledge it as part of China. The United Nations has also adopted resolutions reflecting this position. However, Washington continues to provide arms to Taiwan as part of its broader efforts to counter China and encourages its allies to do the same.

Following a summit in Tokyo between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the two countries said in a joint statement issued on Thursday that they had agreed to begin “formal negotiations” to delimit their exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and continental shelves.

Beijing condemned the planned talks as “completely illegal and invalid” and swiftly lodged formal diplomatic protests with both Tokyo and Manila.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Friday: “The so-called delimitation negotiations are entirely illegal, invalid and void. They will have no impact whatsoever on China’s claims or on China’s exercise of its legitimate rights in the area east of Taiwan Island.”

The latest escalation comes at a time when relations between Beijing and both Tokyo and Manila are already strained. Japan and the Philippines are treaty allies of the United States, while China remains engaged in separate territorial disputes with Japan in the East China Sea and with the Philippines in the South China Sea.

As US attention and resources have increasingly shifted toward the war involving Iran, and as the White House has made the Western Hemisphere a strategic priority, Japan and the Philippines have stepped up diplomatic engagement in the region commonly referred to as the Indo-Pacific.

That effort has included building closer security and defence ties with other countries, prompting Beijing to accuse them of encouraging bloc confrontation in the region.

Japan and the Philippines do not share a maritime boundary. However, their seabed claims could overlap because both countries seek to extend their legal continental shelves beyond 200 nautical miles, equivalent to 370 kilometres or 230 miles.

The overlapping area lies east of Taiwan, southwest of Japan’s Ryukyu Islands and north of the Philippines’ Batanes Islands.

Yang Xiao, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China’s highest-ranking state-affiliated think tank, said Taiwan’s EEZ and continental shelf are part of the area under discussion.

“These are China’s rights and are not something that the two sides can negotiate among themselves,” Yang said.

In an interview published on Sunday by Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account affiliated with state broadcaster CCTV, before the China Coast Guard announced the patrols, Yang said Beijing would take “historic and unprecedented” countermeasures against Tokyo and Manila.

“Since they are negotiating in a three-party overlapping zone, we can also take further steps to advance our jurisdiction in the waters east of Taiwan,” Yang said.

“If the other side insists on reckless and destructive actions, we will inevitably introduce new countermeasures.”

Yang described the waters east of Taiwan as a vital maritime area for the island’s economic activities.

“If these waters are divided between Japan and the Philippines, that would clearly harm the interests of the people living on Taiwan Island,” he added.

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SoftBank overtakes Toyota to become Japan’s most valuable company

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01/06/2026

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As artificial intelligence reshapes industrial structures in Japan and South Korea, stock market rankings are being redrawn. SoftBank Group has overtaken Toyota Motor to become Japan’s most valuable listed company.

SoftBank shares have surged as the global artificial intelligence rally gathers momentum, lifting the technology conglomerate’s market capitalisation above that of Toyota for the first time in more than two decades.

The shift reflects a broader reordering of Japan’s equity market. Automakers, alongside banks, steelmakers, energy companies and other traditional heavy industries, are losing ground to chipmakers and companies linked to artificial intelligence.

SoftBank shares jumped 14% on Monday, reaching a new record high. The company’s market value climbed to 48 trillion yen, or $301 billion, making it the most valuable company listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Toyota had long held the top position, with a market capitalisation of approximately 45 trillion yen. The last time SoftBank surpassed Toyota was in March 2000, at the peak of the dot-com bubble.

SoftBank’s rapid rise has been driven by strong earnings performance and its substantial investment in ChatGPT developer OpenAI.

The Japanese company reported net profit of 1.82 trillion yen, or $11.4 billion, for the first three months of 2026, 3.5 times higher than in the same period a year earlier. The group is also increasing its investment in OpenAI, completing a $10 billion investment in April and committing to invest an additional $20 billion later this year. Total investment is expected to reach roughly $65 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, OpenAI plans to file for an initial public offering and aims to list in the United States as early as September. Some media reports suggest the company could seek to raise $60 billion through the offering, potentially valuing it at more than $1 trillion. Such a transaction could become the largest initial public offering in history.

Investors expect the IPO to significantly boost SoftBank’s investment gains. Those expectations have helped drive the technology group’s share price higher. SoftBank shares have risen about 127% since early April.

The company is also planning to invest up to 14 trillion yen in the construction of data centres in France.

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China and Serbia agree to expand cooperation in emerging sectors

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26/05/2026

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Chinese President Xi Jinping met Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Beijing, where the two leaders discussed bilateral ties and oversaw the signing of multiple cooperation agreements. Xi also awarded Vucic the Friendship Medal of the People’s Republic of China.

The meeting between Xi Jinping and Aleksandar Vucic began with an official welcoming ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.

The two leaders then proceeded to formal talks. Xi said China and Serbia had achieved “positive results” since jointly launching the construction of a “China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era” in 2024.

Xi said the partnership had not only benefited the two peoples but had also set an example for international relations.

The Chinese president described relations between China and Serbia as an “iron friendship” based on deep historical ties and mutual trust.

Calling on both sides to strengthen exchanges, deepen practical cooperation and continue supporting each other on issues concerning their core interests, Xi also said the two countries should align their development strategies and advance cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative. In this context, he pointed to transport, energy and infrastructure projects.

Xi also called for expanding cooperation in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence, the digital economy, green energy and advanced manufacturing.

Aleksandar Vucic congratulated China on the start of implementation of its 15th Five-Year Plan. Vucic also expressed confidence in China’s future development under Xi Jinping’s leadership.

The Serbian president said Belgrade attached great importance to relations with China and firmly supported Beijing on issues concerning China’s core interests.

Vucic thanked Chinese companies for their contributions to Serbia’s economic development and infrastructure construction.

Saying the two countries had made notable progress since establishing their comprehensive strategic partnership, Vucic added that cooperation had expanded across numerous sectors.

The Serbian president also praised China’s role in international affairs, saying Beijing approached smaller countries on the basis of equality and respect and defended international law.

Following the talks, the two leaders witnessed the signing of more than 20 cooperation agreements covering politics, trade, science and technology, education, legal affairs and culture.

The two sides also issued joint statements on steadily advancing the construction of a China-Serbia community with a shared future in the new era and jointly supporting the implementation of four global initiatives.

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