Asia
Investors see limited gains from Trump-Xi summit as Iran war risks cloud outlook
The focus on “strategic stability” at the summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to ease geopolitical risks between China and the US from the perspective of Chinese markets. But limited progress on trade and the ongoing Iran war are likely to keep investor enthusiasm restrained.
Trump’s first visit to Beijing since 2017 ended on Friday without a major breakthrough on trade or any concrete progress toward ending the US-Israeli war against Iran that has rattled global markets for more than two months.
Although investor expectations for the summit had been limited, markets had hoped the talks could provide a roadmap for resolving the war, which has pushed up energy prices as turbulent negotiations between Washington and Tehran continue.
China’s yuan fell to its lowest level against the dollar in nearly two weeks on Monday as investor focus shifted away from the summit toward a global bond selloff triggered by inflation concerns and fresh signs of tension related to the Iran war.
Chinese equities traded largely flat on Monday after falling more than 1% on Friday, as a risk-off mood dominated global markets.
William Bratton, head of Asia-Pacific cash equity research at BNP Paribas, said the summit was unlikely to deliver tangible gains for equity investors in the short term, but that its longer-term implications for reducing geopolitical risk were positive.
“That should also alter investors’ perception of risk and encourage US capital to reassess the relative attractiveness of Chinese investment opportunities,” Bratton said.
“After all, we have seen US investors gradually adopt a more positive stance toward Chinese equities since the start of the year, and we expect that to continue as US-China bilateral relations stabilize, or perhaps more accurately, become more predictable,” he added.
Monday’s muted market reaction to the summit also followed data showing China’s economic growth lost momentum in April, with industrial output and retail sales coming in significantly below expectations.
Analysts at Capital Economics said the optimistic interpretation was that, although no major breakthrough had been achieved, the summit helped reinforce the trade truce and reduced the risk of renewed escalation in the near term.
“Trump’s invitation for Xi to visit the US in September also increases the likelihood that the two sides will get along over the coming months,” the analysts said in a note.
Investors had hoped the talks might help pave the way for a peace agreement in the Middle East. But markets remain cautious about renewed turbulence after China, the largest buyer of Iranian oil, gave no clear indication it would throw its weight behind the conflict.
Analysts said geopolitical differences between the two countries were clearly reflected in the opposing positions taken by Washington and Beijing on the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes.
Trump said Xi agreed that Tehran should reopen the strategic waterway, while Xi made no comment on his discussions with Trump regarding Iran. China’s Foreign Ministry described the conflict as one that “should never have happened and has no justification to continue.”
Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said that without clear follow-up action on trade, Taiwan or the Iran conflict, the meeting risked being seen as a “non-event”: positive for sentiment, but insufficient to alter the market backdrop.
“This is where the risk still lies,” Chanana said. “Investors may be underpricing the possibility that the Iran conflict keeps oil prices elevated, inflation expectations sticky and bond yields higher for longer,” she added.
Separately, analysts said Taiwan would remain a key factor in US-China relations after Xi warned Trump that mishandling the island could lead to conflict between the two powers.
Sam Jochim, economist at Swiss private bank EFG International, said it would be significant whether Trump approves a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan.
“Such a move has the potential to destabilize his relationship with Xi,” Jochim said.
Trump also introduced an element of uncertainty on Friday by saying he had not yet decided whether to proceed with a major arms sale to Taiwan.
The trade truce reached after a series of retaliatory escalations between the US and China is expected to expire later this year, and the lack of tariff clarity during the summit weighed on investor sentiment.
Even the agreement highlighted as the most significant tangible outcome of the talks disappointed investors: Boeing shares fell after Trump said on Thursday that China would buy 200 aircraft from the company, a figure far below analyst expectations.
Despite limited progress on trade, Nomura chief China economist Ting Lu described the two-day summit as an exercise in “economic and political risk containment” that delivered short-term stability for both leaders.
“The G2 powers have decided that if they must be rivals through the remainder of 2026, they will at least be predictable, transactional and tightly managed rivals,” Lu said, referring to a term Trump used for the pair in October.
Asia
China launches global tax audit on super-rich to recover billions
China has launched a global crackdown on its super-rich to collect hundreds of billions of dollars in unpaid taxes dating back decades, seeking to narrow income and wealth inequality and close a deepening budget deficit.
Authorities have intensified their scrutiny of overseas capital gains and investments, with investigations extending in some instances as far back as 2000. The campaign comes as Beijing attempts to significantly expand its oversight of outbound capital flows.
According to foreign officials, Chinese bankers, and family office executives who spoke to the Financial Times, Chinese banks and other financial institutions have been instructed to review the overseas investments of wealthy Chinese nationals and check whether the resulting income has been declared to tax authorities in Beijing.
The efforts, which form part of sweeping tax reforms targeting the country’s wealthy elite and offshore trusts, focus on gains derived from the acquisition of assets such as real estate, equities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies.
Numerous officials, bankers, and advisers confirmed the retrospective nature of the campaign, noting that inquiries cover periods reaching back more than 25 years in certain cases.
A banker in southern China said that in recent months, Chinese banks have increasingly coordinated with tax authorities to freeze the accounts of wealthy clients until officials are satisfied that taxes on capital gains from overseas assets, accounts, and trusts have been paid.
“In standard practice, these wealthy individuals immediately pay the penalties and taxes in cash to get their accounts unfrozen,” the banker said.
The timeframes examined in the tax audits appear to vary significantly. For instance, an executive at a Shenzhen-based family office said clients were asked to pay taxes on gains generated from overseas assets between 2017 and 2022. No explanation was provided as to why that specific period was targeted.
Victor Shih, a professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California, San Diego, said the motivation behind the new campaign was “clearly rooted in fiscal reasons.”
China’s fiscal revenues, where taxes plug a critical gap, have largely stagnated since the pandemic and contracted by 1.7% in 2025 to 21.6 trillion yuan, or $3.2 trillion. Total public revenue from land sales, once a primary source of state income, fell to 4.15 trillion yuan following a real estate market downturn, down from a peak of 8.7 trillion yuan in 2021.
Last month, China also enacted comprehensive tax rules governing assets transferred to offshore trusts. According to a joint statement by China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration, the regulation closed a legal loophole long utilized by wealthy individuals to protect their assets abroad.
Under the new rules, income generated from offshore trusts will be subject to a 20% tax across multiple stages.
A Singapore-based banker who manages overseas assets for wealthy Chinese nationals said the offshore trust tax “shocked” clients.
“There are people who established trusts for public assets, such as shares in listed companies. During periods when initial public offerings were very common, holding the right trust structure provided protection regarding income tax. This new decision has eliminated that advantage,” the banker said.
While experts suggest that some complex overseas structures may evade the new rules, many trust holders are expected to face a one-off tax liability. Reports indicate that some may be forced to sell assets to meet the payments.
Together with other tax reforms, the new policies will align China’s taxation system more closely with that of the US, where American taxpayers are generally taxed on their worldwide income.
Ye Yongqing, a Shanghai-based tax lawyer and partner at Anli Partners, said, “Regulatory bodies have steadily tightened oversight of cross-border capital flows, declarations of overseas income, and foreign exchange transactions. Consequently, the scope for wealthy Chinese to transfer assets abroad or structure their tax affairs through offshore vehicles has narrowed.”
Ye noted that Beijing has adopted a restrictive approach toward offshore trusts similar to US tax legislation, broadly rejecting attempts by taxpayers to use these vehicles to defer or entirely eliminate tax.
There are also indications that stricter tax collection from China’s wealthy has yielded results in recent years. Official data shows that personal income tax revenues rose 11.5% in 2025, driven by the impact of previous campaigns, including the taxation of Hong Kong stock transactions. This growth rate significantly outpaced the 0.8% expansion in overall tax revenues.
An executive at an immigration firm with offices in China and New York said authorities initially targeted wealthy Chinese trading US equities via Hong Kong or other overseas channels.
The executive said the inquiries are expected to expand next to individuals holding substantial financial assets in overseas bank accounts, particularly in Hong Kong, and ultimately to other forms of offshore wealth, including real estate.
Asia
Japan links defense buildup to economic growth in annual white paper amid regional threats
Japan’s government is framing its accelerating military buildup not only as a means of national defense, but also as a pathway to greater prosperity, with its latest defense white paper asserting that arms production can stimulate economic growth.
The document, an annual assessment of alleged threats posed by neighboring countries China, Russia, and North Korea, calls on Japan—long constrained by post-war limits on military activity—to leverage technology, fund ventures, and incorporate a higher proportion of commercial components into weapons manufacturing.
According to a Defense Ministry presentation document, the white paper “emphasizes that defense investments benefit the overall economy and the lives of the public.” That message aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s policy of utilizing broader strategic public spending to drive economic growth.
This approach is reflected in the document’s anime-style cover image. Departing from the soldiers, weaponry, and military insignia featured in many previous editions, the cover depicts a smiling family set against a glowing futuristic cityscape. A Defense Ministry official said the design was intended to convey a “futuristic image.”
The explicit link drawn between defense and future prosperity coincides with the Takaichi administration’s drafting of a new national security strategy. Military analysts anticipate that the strategy will outline further spending increases designed primarily to deter China.
“China’s military activities and other actions are a matter of serious concern for Japan and the international community, representing the greatest strategic challenge facing Japan,” the white paper states.
Remarks by Takaichi in November indicating that Japan would act militarily in the event of a potential Chinese intervention in Taiwan drew a sharp reaction from Beijing. China termed the statement “extremely grave” and demanded its retraction.
Tokyo has assembled a financing package combining tax increases, spending reforms, and one-off revenues to fund Japan’s largest military buildup since World War II, raising defense-related spending to 2% of gross domestic product. However, Takaichi has yet to clearly articulate how additional military expansion will be funded without imposing further strain on already heavily burdened public finances.
The Takaichi government secured approval for a record 122.3 trillion yen budget for the fiscal year ending in March 2027. An additional 3.1 trillion yen package was later added to shield households and businesses from rising energy costs, underscoring the competing demands placed on public resources.
To date, the bulk of the new defense spending has been directed toward missiles capable of striking targets at distances exceeding 1,000 kilometers. A significant portion of future spending increases is expected to be allocated to uncrewed aerial vehicles and other uncrewed weapons systems of the type deployed extensively by Ukraine in its war with Russia.
Asia
Chinese Politburo signals cautious confidence as Beijing pivots toward targeted tech support
The mid-year meeting of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Politburo has long served as a critical evaluation point for Beijing. The session provides the central government with an opportunity to review developments from the first half of the year and steer the country toward a more realistic economic course in the months ahead.
The latest statement from the top leadership signals cautious confidence. The release indicates that policymakers are favoring a stable, targeted approach over the broad-based stimulus measures that characterized previous years. As China manages its economic transition, the post-Covid era of aggressive spending has clearly drawn to a close. In its place, a strategic and structural approach has taken hold, prioritizing resilience and stability over short-term capital injections.
According to the outcomes of the Politburo meeting, the policy orientation will continue to target specific sectors. Financial support will be directed away from the property market and toward high-tech emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors. In the real estate sector, the objective remains stabilizing market confidence and keeping debt risks under control.
Infrastructure investment is likewise being reshaped around the concept of “new infrastructure.” The focus is no longer solely on concrete and physical structures; smart power grids, information technology networks, and data infrastructure have taken precedence.
This approach signifies an investment in future competitiveness rather than simply pumping capital into the economy’s more stagnant sectors. Serving as a new driver of growth, digital infrastructure fulfills a dual purpose: supporting domestic demand in the short term while safeguarding technological competitiveness over the long term.
Finally, Beijing is signaling a more conciliatory posture in international trade. The Chinese leadership aims to establish a more balanced trade framework to mitigate concerns voiced by trade partners such as the European Union over what has been termed “China Shock 2.0.”
As the administration prepares for critical leadership changes next year, its primary focus will remain on stability across both economic and social spheres.
China continues to strike a balance between realistic growth targets and systemic restructuring, maintaining policy leeway to absorb potential external shocks. Beijing’s economic strategy reflects a pragmatic assessment of both domestic and international challenges.
Struggling with weak demand, the domestic economy is not yet in a position to anchor national growth independently. Expansion continues to rely heavily on a record trade surplus alongside the impressive export performance of high-tech and clean energy sectors. However, this reliance has drawn pushback from several trading partners.
To stimulate domestic economic activity and ease trade tensions, Beijing unveiled its first standalone five-year plan focused on consumption. Released in July by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce, the plan targets an increase in retail sales to 60 trillion yuan (approximately $8.9 trillion) by 2030. This represents an increase of roughly 20% compared to 2025 levels.
To improve profit margins for small businesses, regulatory authorities are tackling the issue of “involution”—described as excessive internal competition—by curbing platform monopolies and preventing destructive price wars. While these structural adjustments may take longer to yield results, they are viewed as a more sustainable and effective alternative to direct cash handouts.
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