Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

Brussels, Dec 16, 2024 – European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming visit on December 17 to Türkiye comes at a pivotal moment for Syria, a country emerging from the long shadow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. As Syria faces unprecedented political shifts, von der Leyen’s discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not only address the immediate humanitarian crisis but also shape the future of EU-Türkiye cooperation in the region.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık

The fall of Assad’s regime has raised hopes for a new era in Syria, yet the transition brings both risks and uncertainties. Ursula von der Leyen, in a statement ahead of her visit, emphasized the importance of continued EU support for Syria’s people, saying, “The collapse of the Assad regime offers new hope for the Syrian people. But this moment of change also carries risks and brings hardship. With the situation on the ground so volatile, our help to the people of Syria is ever more important.”

Von der Leyen: “We Are Committed to Providing Essential Aid”

The European Union has swiftly mobilized to address the urgent needs of those affected by the ongoing conflict and political upheaval in Syria. The Commission announced the launch of a new Humanitarian Air Bridge operation, delivering 50 tonnes of health supplies to Türkiye from its stockpiles in Dubai. These supplies will then be transported to northern Syria to alleviate the mounting health crisis. Additionally, 46 tonnes of shelter and education materials will be delivered, with EU funding now reaching €163 million in total humanitarian aid for 2024.

“We are committed to providing essential aid, including trauma kits, medical supplies, and food parcels to over 60,000 Syrians in the north,” said von der Leyen on December 13. The EU’s expanded humanitarian efforts reflect the urgency of the situation. However, despite the scale of this intervention, questions remain about the long-term effectiveness of these efforts, as many sanctions on Syria are ongoing.

“Türkiye will be a primus inter pares partner in dealing with Syria for the EU”

Von der Leyen’s visit comes at a time when Türkiye, a candidate country of the EU, increased its geopolitical importance in the region. Having long supported opposition forces against Assad, Türkiye is now portrayed in the West as one of the winners of the Syrian civil war.

Türkiye’s role in hosting over 4 million Syrian refugees has made it one of the most directly affected nations by the conflict, while it made Ankara important as an gate-keeper of migration before the eyes of European politicians. As von der Leyen prepares for her meeting with Erdoğan, the focus will likely be on reinforcing EU-Türkiye cooperation to manage the refugee crisis, protection of the minorities in Syria and prevent further instability that might cause another domestic conflict.

“We must work together to ensure that Syria’s territorial integrity is preserved and that the rights of all its people, especially minorities, are protected,” von der Leyen stated on 13th December.

Sophie Desmidt, Associate Director at ECDPM, emphasized that Türkiye’s role is central to the EU’s strategy. She noted that “Türkiye will be a primus inter pares partner in dealing with Syria for the EU, and von der Leyen will underline this during her visit.” Desmidt also highlighted the likelihood of Türkiye leveraging its position for additional EU support, especially given its pivotal role during the migration crisis. She added, “US leadership is in lame duck mode until Trump takes office, and whether he will be a spoiler or a power broker remains to be seen. I think Erdogan is keen to assert his leadership, over Iran, which plays in the EU’s cards”.

Kaja Kallas: The challenge of EU’s new face in diplomacy

The former Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, came to the office on December 1, as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Recent statements from Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new High Representative for Foreign Affairs, add another layer of context to von der Leyen’s visit. Kallas has underscored the EU’s commitment to ensuring stability in the region, an issue of particular importance in light of Syria’s ongoing instability. On December 8, she tweeted, “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region.”

On December 14, Kallas emphasized the EU’s support for Syria’s political transition, stating, “Syria faces a hopeful but uncertain future. That’s why we all agreed in Aqaba on important principles: stability, sovereignty, territorial integrity, but also respect for minorities, institution build-up and unity of government that includes all the groups in Syria.”

Before going into her first Foreign Affairs Council Meeting, on December 16, Kallas announced that she had appointed “A European top diplomat” to go to Damascus and make contact with the new government and people there.

Kallas also stated that the bloc could ease sanctions on Syria if its new leadership forms an inclusive government and respects women’s and minority rights. She also noted that many EU foreign ministers urged Syria to eliminate Russian influence, including military bases, after the Foreign Affairs Council meeting.

“EU leadership wants decreased migration pressure”

Desmidt answered what might be the possible effects of the political crisis in Germany and France in the context of a leadership problem. “This will be a challenge for the time being, but pending the outcome of the German elections, things could move relatively fast. My sense is that EU leadership across the board, including the Commission, Parliament, and EU heads of state and government, and their domestic constituencies are by and large on the same page when it comes to the outcome they want to see as a result of support to Syria: decreased migration pressure on the EU.”

She added that there are other players who will contribute ideally to a joint EU action, such as António Costa, the new Council President, who will have the task of mobilizing member states around a common position, and Dubravka Šuica, the new Commissioner for the Mediterranean. Kaja Kallas, Desmidt noted, will have to demonstrate that this is a priority for her, as her profile has been strong in Ukraine and Russia. “She already took action over the weekend, traveling to Jordan to speak to representatives from the U.S., Türkiye, and Arab states,” she pointed out.

“Politics will ultimately trump moral frameworks”

Desmidt reinforced this view, warning against premature disengagement. “The EU has, on many occasions, been criticized for relinquishing in practice its emphasis on human rights and democracy and has been seen by many partners outside the EU as operating on double standards—being hard-line on some regimes but more lenient towards others, especially when interests are at play.”

She noted that “Politics will ultimately trump moral frameworks, but the EU should be clear on its position and interests. Closing the door to engagement with Syria’s transitional government now would also close the space for the EU to act constructively and effectively.” She drew parallels to Afghanistan, where the EU adopted a principled yet pragmatic approach to engagement with the leadership to support the people.

Looking forward, the EU faces a delicate balancing act. The potential return of Syrian refugees, combined with the need for reconstruction, will test the EU’s commitment to the region. The European Commission has already pledged to continue funding the rebuilding of Syria’s infrastructure, but as von der Leyen acknowledged, this will require the cooperation of all regional players, including Türkiye.

“The reconstruction of Syria will require significant resources, and the EU is ready to play its part,” said von der Leyen. “But it is essential that we work together with our regional partners to ensure that the political transition is inclusive and sustainable.”

Desmidt noted that budget constraints and the rise of far-right parties in Europe might further complicate these efforts. “The EU won’t shoulder the cost of reconstruction alone. Partners in the region, such as the Gulf states, will need to step up. Ideally EU’s role should focus on coordinating and supporting a regionally owned process, that prioritises respectful and innovative domestic and foreign policy solutions that pave the way for Syria’s long-term reconstruction” she concluded.

Desmidt also outlined potential avenues for support, such as international donor conferences, joint reconstruction funds with the World Bank and Asian and Islamic Development Banks, and a regional peace process and plan. She also suggested the possibility of an EU Envoy for Syria. She concluded, “I fear that other conflict zones, besides the Middle East and Ukraine, will suffer from a reallocation of interests and funds, notably Africa, as the return of migrants and easing migration pressure on the EU is higher up the political priority list than, for example, Sudan or the Sahel at the moment.”

“With the new configuration in Syria, Türkiye’s Importance Has Undoubtedly Grown in Europe”

Dr. Kadri Taştan, a non-resident senior fellow in Brussels, gave a Türkiye perspective by highlighting Türkiye’s strategic position in light of Syria’s transformation.

“Türkiye’s importance has undoubtedly grown in the eyes of Europe,” he said, pointing to Ankara’s consistent support for Syrian opposition groups even during times when the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime seemed improbable. According to Dr. Taştan, this steadfast backing has placed Türkiye in a particularly advantageous position as Syria undergoes a significant transition.

“In the short term, Türkiye is the most effective and profitable country in this new configuration, especially considering its longstanding relationships with the opposition forces,” he explained.

Security and Migration are the cornerstones of EU-Türkiye Cooperation

When asked about potential areas of collaboration between the EU and Türkiye , Dr. Taştan identified two primary points of focus: security and migration.

“Cooperation between the EU and Türkiye will center on security—specifically combating terrorism—and migration,” he said. While these two areas present clear opportunities for joint efforts, Dr. Taştan expressed skepticism regarding Europe’s ability to contribute significantly to Syria’s reconstruction.

“I don’t think Europeans can provide substantial support for reconstruction. The political environment in Europe is not conducive to this,” he noted, citing the ongoing challenges faced by the EU’s leading nations. “The two locomotive countries of Europe are facing significant political instability, and the rise of populist movements makes large-scale commitments difficult.”

Dr. Taştan also emphasized that migration and refugee return programs could become a cornerstone of EU-Türkiye cooperation. He suggested that the EU might utilize civil society organizations to fund and implement these programs through Türkiye.

“The EU can finance these initiatives through Türkiye, using entities like civil society organizations to ensure the effective management of migration and the safe return of refugees,” he added.

Last Visit Sparked Controversy Over Seating Arrangement

As European Commission President prepares for her upcoming visit to Türkiye, memories of the infamous “sofagate” incident still linger. During her 2021 visit, von der Leyen was left without a chair in a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and EU Council President Charles Michel, sparking global criticism and allegations of sexism.

The Two last saw each other during the European Political Community (EPC) Summit in Budapest, which took place in early November 2024.

As Ursula von der Leyen heads to Ankara, the stakes are high for both the EU and Türkiye in navigating Syria’s fragile transition. The visit represents a critical moment to redefine EU-Türkiye relations, balancing humanitarian aid, migration cooperation, and geopolitical strategy.

The United Kingdom made history on Sunday, 15 December, by becoming the first European country to join the Indo-Pacific trade bloc, marking its largest trade agreement since Brexit. As the 12th member of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the UK is also the first non-coastal nation in the region to participate.

The UK formally signed the accession agreement in 2022, with officials projecting an annual economic boost of up to $2.5 billion. According to government data, Britain’s total trade volume reached £1.7 trillion ($2.15 trillion) in the year leading up to September 2023.

The trade bloc, established in 2018, includes prominent G7 members such as Canada and Japan, alongside nations like Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. Together, these nations represent approximately 15% of global gross domestic product (GDP) and provide access to a market of over 500 million people.

Membership in the CPTPP is viewed as a counterbalance to China’s growing regional influence, although China has also applied to join the bloc. The UK government hopes this membership will revitalize trade ties post-Brexit and open doors for British businesses.

The previous Conservative government spearheaded the initiative, with then-Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch describing the CPTPP as the “biggest trade deal since Britain left the EU.” Since leaving the EU’s single market in 2021, the UK has signed trade agreements with Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore and is currently pursuing deals with the Gulf States and India. However, a free trade agreement with the United States remains elusive.

Despite optimistic projections, early analyses have been less favorable. A 2021 government study, conducted before the deal’s terms were finalized, estimated only a 0.08% increase in GDP from CPTPP membership. Critics also highlight broader challenges stemming from Brexit, with long-term modeling from the UK’s budget watchdog predicting a 15% decline in trade and a 4% reduction in productivity.

Opposition parties, however, remain divided. Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith recently stated that the CPTPP offers “a path to prosperity” through trade with nations like the US, rather than rekindling ties with the EU.

Former Conservative Trade Secretary Liz Truss had earlier emphasized that joining the CPTPP would create opportunities for UK businesses that were unattainable under EU membership.

Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh recently visited Moscow to attend the 21st meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission on Military-Technical Cooperation. The meeting was co-chaired by the chiefs of staff of India and Russia, emphasizing the robust bilateral ties between the two nations.

Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov highlighted the durable foundation of Russia-India relations, attributing this partnership to the trust-based relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“There is a strong friendship between our countries, tested and strengthened over time. I believe that our meeting will contribute to further strengthening Russia-India relations in defense and security,” Belousov stated.

Rajnath Singh reaffirmed India’s commitment to its partnership with Russia, noting that despite geopolitical challenges and external pressures, India has consciously chosen to not only maintain but also deepen its cooperation with Russia.

“We will always stand by our Russian counterparts,” Singh declared.

A contract for the supply of 10 divisions of the S-400 surface-to-air missile systems is nearing completion, according to sources in the field of military-technical cooperation.

A factory in India has commenced production of Kalashnikov rifles, marking a significant step in the Make in India initiative.

Singh visited the seventh Project 11356 frigate delivered to India in Kaliningrad Oblast. Of the three remaining frigates in this class, two will be built in India.

Plans are underway to construct the Voronezh missile warning system radar in India, showcasing the broad scope of collaboration between the two countries.

Olga Solodkova, Associate Professor at the Higher School of Economics, noted that while India has historically trusted Russia, the relationship has faced challenges due to Russia’s growing ties with China, a nation with whom India has a contentious history.

“China’s economic superiority and the advantages it offers to Russia cannot be matched by India,” Solodkova told Vedomosti.

Boris Volkhonsky, Associate Professor at the Institute of Asian and African Countries, emphasized that India’s decisions on military cooperation are guided by its national interests. He noted India’s diversification of arms supply while reaffirming the proven reliability of Russian weaponry. Volkhonsky also acknowledged the significant pressure India faces from the United States regarding its defense partnerships.