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Türkiye’s Moment in Europe’s Eyes: Von der Leyen’s High-Stakes Visit Amid Syria’s Turmoil

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Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

Brussels, Dec 16, 2024 – European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s upcoming visit on December 17 to Türkiye comes at a pivotal moment for Syria, a country emerging from the long shadow of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. As Syria faces unprecedented political shifts, von der Leyen’s discussions with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will not only address the immediate humanitarian crisis but also shape the future of EU-Türkiye cooperation in the region.

Ahmetcan Uzlaşık

The fall of Assad’s regime has raised hopes for a new era in Syria, yet the transition brings both risks and uncertainties. Ursula von der Leyen, in a statement ahead of her visit, emphasized the importance of continued EU support for Syria’s people, saying, “The collapse of the Assad regime offers new hope for the Syrian people. But this moment of change also carries risks and brings hardship. With the situation on the ground so volatile, our help to the people of Syria is ever more important.”

Von der Leyen: “We Are Committed to Providing Essential Aid”

The European Union has swiftly mobilized to address the urgent needs of those affected by the ongoing conflict and political upheaval in Syria. The Commission announced the launch of a new Humanitarian Air Bridge operation, delivering 50 tonnes of health supplies to Türkiye from its stockpiles in Dubai. These supplies will then be transported to northern Syria to alleviate the mounting health crisis. Additionally, 46 tonnes of shelter and education materials will be delivered, with EU funding now reaching €163 million in total humanitarian aid for 2024.

“We are committed to providing essential aid, including trauma kits, medical supplies, and food parcels to over 60,000 Syrians in the north,” said von der Leyen on December 13. The EU’s expanded humanitarian efforts reflect the urgency of the situation. However, despite the scale of this intervention, questions remain about the long-term effectiveness of these efforts, as many sanctions on Syria are ongoing.

“Türkiye will be a primus inter pares partner in dealing with Syria for the EU”

Von der Leyen’s visit comes at a time when Türkiye, a candidate country of the EU, increased its geopolitical importance in the region. Having long supported opposition forces against Assad, Türkiye is now portrayed in the West as one of the winners of the Syrian civil war.

Türkiye’s role in hosting over 4 million Syrian refugees has made it one of the most directly affected nations by the conflict, while it made Ankara important as an gate-keeper of migration before the eyes of European politicians. As von der Leyen prepares for her meeting with Erdoğan, the focus will likely be on reinforcing EU-Türkiye cooperation to manage the refugee crisis, protection of the minorities in Syria and prevent further instability that might cause another domestic conflict.

“We must work together to ensure that Syria’s territorial integrity is preserved and that the rights of all its people, especially minorities, are protected,” von der Leyen stated on 13th December.

Sophie Desmidt, Associate Director at ECDPM, emphasized that Türkiye’s role is central to the EU’s strategy. She noted that “Türkiye will be a primus inter pares partner in dealing with Syria for the EU, and von der Leyen will underline this during her visit.” Desmidt also highlighted the likelihood of Türkiye leveraging its position for additional EU support, especially given its pivotal role during the migration crisis. She added, “US leadership is in lame duck mode until Trump takes office, and whether he will be a spoiler or a power broker remains to be seen. I think Erdogan is keen to assert his leadership, over Iran, which plays in the EU’s cards”.

Kaja Kallas: The challenge of EU’s new face in diplomacy

The former Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, came to the office on December 1, as the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.

Recent statements from Kaja Kallas, the EU’s new High Representative for Foreign Affairs, add another layer of context to von der Leyen’s visit. Kallas has underscored the EU’s commitment to ensuring stability in the region, an issue of particular importance in light of Syria’s ongoing instability. On December 8, she tweeted, “Our priority is to ensure security in the region. I will work with all the constructive partners, in Syria and in the region.”

On December 14, Kallas emphasized the EU’s support for Syria’s political transition, stating, “Syria faces a hopeful but uncertain future. That’s why we all agreed in Aqaba on important principles: stability, sovereignty, territorial integrity, but also respect for minorities, institution build-up and unity of government that includes all the groups in Syria.”

Before going into her first Foreign Affairs Council Meeting, on December 16, Kallas announced that she had appointed “A European top diplomat” to go to Damascus and make contact with the new government and people there.

Kallas also stated that the bloc could ease sanctions on Syria if its new leadership forms an inclusive government and respects women’s and minority rights. She also noted that many EU foreign ministers urged Syria to eliminate Russian influence, including military bases, after the Foreign Affairs Council meeting.

“EU leadership wants decreased migration pressure”

Desmidt answered what might be the possible effects of the political crisis in Germany and France in the context of a leadership problem. “This will be a challenge for the time being, but pending the outcome of the German elections, things could move relatively fast. My sense is that EU leadership across the board, including the Commission, Parliament, and EU heads of state and government, and their domestic constituencies are by and large on the same page when it comes to the outcome they want to see as a result of support to Syria: decreased migration pressure on the EU.”

She added that there are other players who will contribute ideally to a joint EU action, such as António Costa, the new Council President, who will have the task of mobilizing member states around a common position, and Dubravka Šuica, the new Commissioner for the Mediterranean. Kaja Kallas, Desmidt noted, will have to demonstrate that this is a priority for her, as her profile has been strong in Ukraine and Russia. “She already took action over the weekend, traveling to Jordan to speak to representatives from the U.S., Türkiye, and Arab states,” she pointed out.

“Politics will ultimately trump moral frameworks”

Desmidt reinforced this view, warning against premature disengagement. “The EU has, on many occasions, been criticized for relinquishing in practice its emphasis on human rights and democracy and has been seen by many partners outside the EU as operating on double standards—being hard-line on some regimes but more lenient towards others, especially when interests are at play.”

She noted that “Politics will ultimately trump moral frameworks, but the EU should be clear on its position and interests. Closing the door to engagement with Syria’s transitional government now would also close the space for the EU to act constructively and effectively.” She drew parallels to Afghanistan, where the EU adopted a principled yet pragmatic approach to engagement with the leadership to support the people.

Looking forward, the EU faces a delicate balancing act. The potential return of Syrian refugees, combined with the need for reconstruction, will test the EU’s commitment to the region. The European Commission has already pledged to continue funding the rebuilding of Syria’s infrastructure, but as von der Leyen acknowledged, this will require the cooperation of all regional players, including Türkiye.

“The reconstruction of Syria will require significant resources, and the EU is ready to play its part,” said von der Leyen. “But it is essential that we work together with our regional partners to ensure that the political transition is inclusive and sustainable.”

Desmidt noted that budget constraints and the rise of far-right parties in Europe might further complicate these efforts. “The EU won’t shoulder the cost of reconstruction alone. Partners in the region, such as the Gulf states, will need to step up. Ideally EU’s role should focus on coordinating and supporting a regionally owned process, that prioritises respectful and innovative domestic and foreign policy solutions that pave the way for Syria’s long-term reconstruction” she concluded.

Desmidt also outlined potential avenues for support, such as international donor conferences, joint reconstruction funds with the World Bank and Asian and Islamic Development Banks, and a regional peace process and plan. She also suggested the possibility of an EU Envoy for Syria. She concluded, “I fear that other conflict zones, besides the Middle East and Ukraine, will suffer from a reallocation of interests and funds, notably Africa, as the return of migrants and easing migration pressure on the EU is higher up the political priority list than, for example, Sudan or the Sahel at the moment.”

“With the new configuration in Syria, Türkiye’s Importance Has Undoubtedly Grown in Europe”

Dr. Kadri Taştan, a non-resident senior fellow in Brussels, gave a Türkiye perspective by highlighting Türkiye’s strategic position in light of Syria’s transformation.

“Türkiye’s importance has undoubtedly grown in the eyes of Europe,” he said, pointing to Ankara’s consistent support for Syrian opposition groups even during times when the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime seemed improbable. According to Dr. Taştan, this steadfast backing has placed Türkiye in a particularly advantageous position as Syria undergoes a significant transition.

“In the short term, Türkiye is the most effective and profitable country in this new configuration, especially considering its longstanding relationships with the opposition forces,” he explained.

Security and Migration are the cornerstones of EU-Türkiye Cooperation

When asked about potential areas of collaboration between the EU and Türkiye , Dr. Taştan identified two primary points of focus: security and migration.

“Cooperation between the EU and Türkiye will center on security—specifically combating terrorism—and migration,” he said. While these two areas present clear opportunities for joint efforts, Dr. Taştan expressed skepticism regarding Europe’s ability to contribute significantly to Syria’s reconstruction.

“I don’t think Europeans can provide substantial support for reconstruction. The political environment in Europe is not conducive to this,” he noted, citing the ongoing challenges faced by the EU’s leading nations. “The two locomotive countries of Europe are facing significant political instability, and the rise of populist movements makes large-scale commitments difficult.”

Dr. Taştan also emphasized that migration and refugee return programs could become a cornerstone of EU-Türkiye cooperation. He suggested that the EU might utilize civil society organizations to fund and implement these programs through Türkiye.

“The EU can finance these initiatives through Türkiye, using entities like civil society organizations to ensure the effective management of migration and the safe return of refugees,” he added.

Last Visit Sparked Controversy Over Seating Arrangement

As European Commission President prepares for her upcoming visit to Türkiye, memories of the infamous “sofagate” incident still linger. During her 2021 visit, von der Leyen was left without a chair in a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and EU Council President Charles Michel, sparking global criticism and allegations of sexism.

The Two last saw each other during the European Political Community (EPC) Summit in Budapest, which took place in early November 2024.

As Ursula von der Leyen heads to Ankara, the stakes are high for both the EU and Türkiye in navigating Syria’s fragile transition. The visit represents a critical moment to redefine EU-Türkiye relations, balancing humanitarian aid, migration cooperation, and geopolitical strategy.

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North Korean hackers blamed for record $6.3bn Binance theft

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The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, has suffered an industry-record cyberattack amounting to $6.3 billion.

According to The Guardian, experts say the likely perpetrator is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Binance moved urgently to freeze the affected assets, and approximately $3 billion has been identified so far.

The company has not provided any update regarding the remaining $3.3 billion.

Binance co-founder Yi He said the company would cover “all cyberattack losses.”

Analysts attributed the assault to state-sponsored hackers from the DPRK. According to The Guardian, the DPRK has a history of cryptocurrency theft and, according to the FBI, was behind the theft of approximately $1.5 billion in virtual assets from a Tokyo-based cryptocurrency exchange last year.

That incident had set the record as the largest cryptocurrency theft recorded up to that point.

Crypto analytics firm TRM attributed the attack “with high confidence” to TraderTraitor, North Korea’s elite hacking unit.

Another analytics entity, Chainalysis, also linked the heist to TraderTraitor.

Binance has not explicitly confirmed that funds were stolen. However, TRM and Chainalysis claimed that more than $6 billion had been taken. The company stated that its teams were “working around the clock” to resolve the issue.

According to Binance’s statement, initial investigation findings revealed that the security breach may have begun with a hacked laptop belonging to one of Binance’s engineers, enabling an attacker to gain access to one of the company’s systems and execute unauthorised withdrawals.

Binance, which allows users to buy, sell, and trade digital assets, has 335 million registered users worldwide, and the total value of assets under its custody was approximately $162.8 billion, according to the exchange’s 2025 annual report.

“The bottom line is that your funds are safe and we are covering all losses,” said Richard Teng, one of Binance’s co-chief executives.

In a statement, the company said:

“As a precautionary measure, all deposits and withdrawals have been temporarily suspended while our security teams, with close support from law enforcement and industry partners, conduct checks, secure wallet infrastructure, and track affected assets.”

Markets reacted immediately early in the Asian trading session on Friday, with bitcoin, by far the most popular crypto asset, dropping by more than 3% to a six-week low of $76,368.

Shares of crypto exchange Coinbase Global lost 4.8%, while shares of bitcoin buyer Strategy fell by about 6% in extended trading on US markets.

Binance was founded in 2017 by Changpeng Zhao. Zhao pleaded guilty in the US in 2023 over failures to prevent money laundering on the platform. Donald Trump pardoned him in 2025.

In a post shared on X on Thursday, Zhao said, “User funds are safe!” but added that the incident “looks like a hack on Binance.”

Stating that he no longer manages Binance, Zhao said, “As a shareholder, I expect all user funds to be fully covered.”

According to Chainalysis and other industry experts, if confirmed, this could become the world’s largest cryptocurrency theft.

“This is the biggest hack in history,” said Aravind Srinivasan, head of the systematic OTC business at major crypto market maker GSR.

Analysts noted that beyond the potential loss of assets, the security breach could have broader repercussions across the cryptocurrency market.

Indeed, the cryptocurrency market had already been under pressure recently due to interest rate increases in the US and weakening demand from exchange-traded fund buyers.

Binance operates a secure asset fund for users; as stated on the company’s website, this fund is an emergency reserve held entirely in bitcoin, intended to protect user assets in the event of security breaches.

Stablecoin issuer Tether announced that it had frozen approximately $1.57 billion in assets linked to the incident, while Circle froze more than $800 million.

World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm linked to Trump and his family, said in a statement on Thursday that it was collaborating with cryptocurrency custody provider BitGo to freeze funds stolen in what it described as the Binance attack.

Yi from Binance said $27 million in stablecoins and roughly $2 million worth of World Liberty tokens had been frozen.

This development adds to a successive series of cryptocurrency thefts. According to researchers at TRM Labs, attackers stole $2.9 billion worth of cryptocurrency across roughly 150 attacks last year.

In September, cryptocurrency exchange Bitget announced that about $350 million worth of cryptocurrency had been stolen from its platform, highlighting the industry’s vulnerability to hackers.

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Canada pursues closer EU partnership as summit opens

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Canadians are weighing the economic opportunities, regulatory hurdles, and questions of identity that closer cooperation with the EU would bring.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa for a two-day summit focused on bolstering trade, security, technology, and people-to-people ties.

The leaders are expected to advance an ambitious new partnership that includes proposals referred to as an “Alliance of the Future” between Canada and the EU, promoted as an “ever closer union”.

So, what do Canadians think about this new agreement?

According to a February 2026 poll by survey firm Abacus Data, reported by Rapporteur, 74% of Canadians support closer cooperation with the EU on foreign policy, defence, and economic priorities. Only 10% oppose it, while 15% remain undecided.

This broad support masks diverging political attitudes. According to the poll, 60% of Liberal voters rank the EU among Canada’s top two partners, compared to 36% who include the US on that list.

Among Conservatives, the figures are reversed: 65% prioritise the US, while the proportion favouring the EU stands at 36%.

According to the Abacus Data survey, 48% of Canadians support EU membership, while 28% oppose it.

In remarks to Rapporteur, the polling firm said:

“The US still occupies a central place in the Canadian mindset, but this situation continues to change. Today it is still seen as the most important partner, but it is no longer in an uncontested position.”

Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, Vice President of Strategic Policy and Global Partnerships at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, is eager to turn towards Europe during the Donald Trump era, yet harbours concerns about EU bureaucratic obstacles:

“Canada’s relationship with the US will always be vital, but the last two years have made the need for diversification impossible to ignore. Europe is a natural place to deepen economic ties. But what we do not want is to open the door to an added layer of regulation.”

Ontario farmer Hannah Hutchings shares this concern.

“The US is still an indispensable business partner,” Hutchings said, arguing that closer ties with the EU could help Canadian agricultural goods reach European consumers, provided they deliver economic benefits to farmers without generating further competition and regulation.

Although the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), applied provisionally since 2017, has reduced trade barriers, it has not opened every market to Canadian exporters.

Michael Harvey, Executive Director of the Canadian Agri-Food Trade Alliance, said: “Closer relations offer an opportunity to work on trade possibilities with the EU and give us greater leverage in negotiations. For certain agricultural products, non-tariff barriers still block market access because the EU wants to impose its own criteria on the entire world.”

Harvey pointed to EU restrictions on growth hormones and crop protection products:

“In this period of rapprochement, we must work through these issues. Closer ties are received largely positively by the public, but the details will make the difference. This must be a win-win situation for both sides.”

Noting that she also sees opportunities for collaboration in agricultural innovation and sustainability, Hutchings drew attention to shared challenges such as rising costs, labour shortages, climate change, and attracting younger generations into farming.

For Canadian businesses, Europe’s appeal also lies in its predictability.

“Forecasting the cost of doing business with the US has become difficult. Europe is more reliable and makes it possible to conduct business planning, understand market entry costs, and anticipate trading conditions,” Fortin LeFaivre said.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce has developed a tool named “Trade Explorer”, which helps businesses identify new export opportunities, particularly in Europe.

Jonathan Audet, co-founder and CEO of Quebec-based ski manufacturer Ferreol, entered the French market in late 2025 and generated 5% of his sales there.

Audet anticipates that his European market share will eventually outstrip Canada:

“The business environment is more favourable than in the US. Forging closer ties with the EU will boost exports and allow us to build commercial partnerships and co-innovation partnerships.”

However, Audet wants administrative procedures simplified, particularly when transporting product samples to trade missions in Europe.

“We are not going to sell them; we are only taking them to display the products, but from a customs perspective, this process is complicated. I have to apply for an ATA Carnet, a kind of passport for goods,” he said, citing delays, fees, and airport customs procedures.

Students see opportunities as well. Alex Simion, a Carleton University student in Ottawa and chair of the student union board of directors, supports easier access to education and employment opportunities in Europe.

“Carleton is a university with a large engineering student body. Students enthusiastically welcome the establishment of closer ties with the EU,” Simion said, calling for simplified visa procedures and improved access to student housing.

Yet uncertainty has not disappeared. “Most of us started high school while the Brexit process was unfolding, so growing up, we saw that something was wrong in the EU,” Simion said.

For him, this debate also raises deeper questions about Canadian identity.

“What does it mean to be Canadian? We are still trying to figure that out,” Simion said, questioning whether EU membership would erode Canada’s distinct identity:

“A closer bond makes it even more important that we find an answer to what being Canadian means before joining the EU.”

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Ukraine economy set to shrink for first time since 2022, bank says

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Ukraine’s economy is set to shrink for the first time since 2022, according to a Bloomberg report citing projections from the National Bank of Ukraine.

The central bank forecasts that the country’s gross domestic product will contract by 0.4% by the end of this year.

The National Bank of Ukraine had previously projected that the economy would grow by 1.8%.

The country’s last economic contraction was recorded in 2022, when gross domestic product plunged by more than 30%.

The National Bank of Ukraine attributed the worsening forecast to Russian strikes, which it said led to a “sharp drop in business activity.”

The Russian Defence Ministry has repeatedly stressed that the strikes target only Ukrainian military and energy facilities, as well as infrastructure linked to them.

President Vladimir Putin said that the Russian military’s strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure were effective and timely actions because they helped troops resolve the combat tasks before them.

The National Bank of Ukraine expects the economy to return to a 0.4% growth path next year, driven by rising investment in the defence industry and other projects.

According to Bloomberg, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its policy rate following the deteriorating economic forecasts.

The central bank’s updated assessments point to higher inflation than previously expected.

Government cuts spending and switches to austerity mode

Ukrainian Prime Minister Sergey Koretskiy announced in late September that the country had switched to a maximum austerity regime and postponed all non-urgent spending.

Koretskiy had previously stated that the state of the country’s public finances was nearing a critical level.

Ukraine’s 2026 budget was approved with a deficit of approximately 1.9 trillion hryvnias, or $47.5 billion.

Describing the upcoming 2026 winter as “objectively difficult” for the country, Koretskiy pointed out that the funding gap in Ukraine’s energy sector remained at around 650 million euros ahead of the winter period.

The Ukrainian Finance Ministry estimates that the country will require nearly $146 billion in external financing between 2026 and 2029.

The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, projects that Ukraine will face a financing gap of up to $54 billion through 2029.

At the beginning of the year, the European Union agreed on a 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv, allocating 60 billion euros for defence spending and 30 billion euros for budget and economic support.

As of 14 October, Ukraine had received only 19.8 billion euros of the agreed loan, representing just 22% of the total amount.

The Moscow government condemns military support provided to Kyiv.

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu, assessing the EU loan to Ukraine, claimed that this policy was driving European states toward “the ultimate loss of their sovereignty.”

President Vladimir Putin stated that “the entire West” was helping Ukraine.

Putin said Russia reserves the right to use weapons against the military facilities of countries that allow their delivered weapons to be used in attacks on Russian territory.

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