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MIDDLE EAST

Israel expects ‘limited strike’ against Hezbollah

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Israel wants to respond ‘strongly’ to Hezbollah at Majdal Shams, but avoids all-out war. There is the possibility of a high-intensity conflict lasting several days. The US has warned Israel that Beirut is a ‘red line’. Lebanon said it had received assurances that any Israeli attack would be ‘limited’.

The security cabinet met under the chairmanship of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and tasked Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant with deciding when and how to respond to Hezbollah after the Majdal Shams attack.

The statement on the security cabinet meeting was issued by Netanyahu’s office, but no further details were given.

According to Israel Army Radio, the Israeli army presented the government with possible scenarios for responding to Hezbollah after the Majdal Shams incident. The scenarios were said to include ‘more violent military action against Lebanon’. The Israeli official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, also said that ‘they want to hurt Hezbollah, but they do not want to start an all-out regional war’.

According to Axios, citing two US and Israeli officials, the Biden administration has warned Israel that if it strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut, “the situation could spiral out of control”.

According to the report, US and Israeli officials agree that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah would cause great destruction on both sides and could lead to a regional war.

Israeli officials said that the Israeli security cabinet and the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) want a much stronger response to Hezbollah than has been taken so far, but that they also want to avoid an all-out war. Officials said the IDF believes a strong Israeli response would lead to a high-intensity conflict with Hezbollah lasting several days that would be difficult to contain. It is clear that both sides will go a step further than they have gone so far, but it is not clear that they can avoid falling into the abyss,’ said an Israeli official.

Red line: Beirut

The Israeli official also reported that Amos Hochstein, senior adviser to President Biden, met with Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday and told him that Israel has the right to defend itself against Hezbollah, but that it must avoid all-out escalation and minimise civilian casualties. The Israeli official said Hochstein expressed concern that if the IDF attacked Beirut, Hezbollah would respond with long-range rockets, leading to further escalation.

We certainly think that an Israeli strike on Beirut is a potential red line for Hizbullah,’ the US official said.

On the other hand, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Buhabib told a local television station that he had received assurances from relevant countries that any Israeli attack on his country would be ‘limited’ and that Hezbollah’s response would be similarly limited.

What happened?

It was reported that 12 people, including children, were killed and 35 injured, 17 of them seriously, when a rocket hit the football pitch in the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

The Israeli army said the rocket was fired from north of the town of Shebaa in southern Lebanon, ‘as a result of the information they had and the assessment they made’, and announced that Lebanese Hezbollah was responsible.

Lebanese Hezbollah, on the other hand, denied allegations that it had carried out the Majdal Shams attack, saying it had ‘no connection with the incident’.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also issued a statement on the attack, saying: ‘Israel will not take any notice of this deadly attack. Hezbollah will pay a heavy price that it has not paid before.

MIDDLE EAST

Katz’s statement on Hezbollah disarmament surprises even Halevi

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Israel’s new Defense Minister, Israel Katz, appointed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to replace the recently dismissed Yoav Gallant, has sparked surprise with a bold declaration regarding Israel’s stance on Hezbollah. Katz stated that one of Israel’s primary goals is to disarm Hezbollah, leaving Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi notably surprised.

As Israel advances into southern Lebanon, negotiations continue in Washington and Beirut over a possible resolution to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Katz emphasized that Israel would not halt its efforts until all military objectives are achieved.

“We will not cease fire, we will not ease pressure, and we will not support any agreement that does not fully achieve the goals of this war,” Katz declared during a visit to the Northern Command alongside Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi.

Katz outlined these objectives as: “disarming Hezbollah, pushing them beyond the Litani River, and ensuring the safe return of Israelis in northern areas to their homes.”

In the accompanying video, Halevi appeared visibly taken aback by Katz’s mention of disarming Hezbollah as an official objective, as this has not been publicly stated as a government directive.

Katz further stressed Israel’s right to “implement any agreement independently and to act decisively against any terrorist activity or organization.” He added, “We must continue to strike Hezbollah with full force.”

6 Israeli soldiers killed

Meanwhile, as Israel presses forward with its ground invasion of southern Lebanon, six more Israeli soldiers were killed in a clash with Hezbollah forces. This incident, one of the heaviest single-day casualties for Israel since the invasion’s onset, highlights the intensifying nature of the conflict.

According to a statement by the Israeli army, the soldiers, all from the 51st Battalion of the Golani Brigade, were killed in fire exchange with at least four Hezbollah fighters inside a building in a southern Lebanese village.

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MIDDLE EAST

Sexual harassment investigation targeting ICC Chief amid controversial prosecution

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has enlisted independent investigators to examine allegations of sexual harassment against Prosecutor Karim Khan.

The accusations against Khan surfaced as the ICC evaluated Khan’s request to issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant over alleged war crimes in Gaza.

Finnish diplomat Päivi Kaukoranta, who leads the ICC’s oversight body, stated that an external investigation was initiated after reports surfaced that Khan had acted inappropriately toward a female colleague. Normally, such matters are managed by the court’s internal audit, but Khan personally requested that the Independent Supervisory Mechanism (ISM) oversee the case. Kaukoranta explained, “In light of the case’s unique circumstances, the ISM’s victim-centered approach, and the potential for conflicts of interest, the ISM agreed to the exceptional use of an external investigation.”

Khan denied the allegations, stating, “I have previously called for an investigation into this matter and welcome the opportunity to participate in this process.”

The investigation coincides with the ICC’s deliberation over Khan’s request to issue warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.

While Khan’s move was supported internationally, it drew criticism from the Biden administration and U.S. Congress. The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed legislation that sanctions individuals affiliated with the ICC, including judges and their families, underscoring the U.S. policy of opposition to ICC jurisdiction over Israel.

Reports have also surfaced regarding Israel’s alleged threats toward ICC officials. In May, The Guardian revealed that Khan’s predecessor, Fatou Bensouda, was pressured in “a series of secret meetings” with Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, a close ally of Netanyahu. Cohen reportedly advised Bensouda to “drop the war crimes investigation,” allegedly warning her, “You don’t want to be involved in anything that could endanger your safety or your family’s safety.”

Khan has since noted he faced pressure before submitting his application for the arrest warrant.

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MIDDLE EAST

Trump will conditionally support West Bank annexation

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Former Trump aides have cautioned Israeli ministers not to assume Trump’s unconditional support for West Bank annexation in a potential second term, according to The Times of Israel.

At least two officials from Donald Trump’s previous administration advised Israeli ministers to temper expectations about Trump’s support for Israel’s annexation of the West Bank. Sources close to the discussions indicated that while annexation is not off the table, Israeli leaders should avoid viewing it as a “foregone conclusion.”

The message was delivered in meetings and discussions held in the months leading up to Trump’s recent presidential victory. However, some far-right cabinet members remained undeterred. On Monday, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared that 2025 would mark “the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank]” following Trump’s re-election. Last week, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir also asserted that “the time for sovereignty has come.”

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu announced Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s next ambassador to the United States. Leiter, a former settler leader, is known for his support of West Bank annexation and opposition to a Palestinian state.

In a statement to The Times of Israel, an anonymous Israeli official said Trump’s former advisers have not ruled out his potential support for annexation. However, they indicated it could jeopardize Trump’s broader foreign policy priorities, including countering Iran, competing with China, and ending the war in Ukraine. Trump would likely need the support of key Gulf allies—notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—to achieve these goals. Unconditional support for Israeli annexation, however, could risk backlash from these regional allies.

In 2020, Trump’s peace plan proposed annexing all Israeli settlements while leaving open the possibility of a Palestinian state in other areas of the West Bank. Although Prime Minister Netanyahu had hesitations, settler leaders and officials like Smotrich celebrated Trump’s recent victory as a chance to realize annexation plans.

A former Trump adviser told an Israeli minister that Trump’s support for Israeli sovereignty would likely come with more conditions than in 2020. After the Palestinian Authority rejected Trump’s “Peace to Prosperity” proposal in 2020, the Trump administration and Israel began planning a partial annexation of the West Bank. However, this initiative was set aside when the UAE agreed to normalize relations with Israel.

The U.S. commitment to the UAE to delay Israeli annexation efforts expires at the end of 2024. Still, a former Trump official told The Times of Israel that a major shift in U.S. support for annexation should not be expected. “If any shift happens, it would need to be part of a process,” the official commented.

Jason Greenblatt, Trump’s former Middle East envoy, reinforced this message, stating:

“I think it’s important that those in Israel who are celebrating President Trump’s victory do so because of his strong support for Israel, as evidenced by many historic achievements during his first term. Some Israeli ministers are assuming that expanding Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is an automatic done deal and will happen as soon as President Trump takes office.

I suggest they take a deep breath. If I were advising these ministers, I would strongly urge them to focus on working closely with Prime Minister Netanyahu to strengthen U.S.-Israel relations and address the significant threats facing Israel. The time for discussions around Judea and Samaria will come, but context and timing are crucial.”

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