America
Joint warning from Pentagon and Wall Street: ‘Only five years left for Western survival’
The Reagan National Defense Forum held in California became the scene of critical discussions shaping Washington’s new strategic era.
At the center of the forum were the massive increase in China’s military production capacity, the slowness of the American bureaucracy, and strategic uncertainties in conflict zones ranging from Ukraine to Venezuela.
Warnings from Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon revealed that the US is in search of a fundamental “paradigm shift” in its defense understanding.
The focus of the discussions was the question of how to secure the speed and resources necessary for the US to maintain its technological superiority.
Declaration of war against bureaucracy
Making one of the forum’s most notable statements, OMB Director Russ Vought emphasized that the biggest obstacle facing the Pentagon and the White House is not a lack of resources, but rather time and bureaucracy.
Pointing out that China’s shipbuilding capacity is 200 times that of the US, Vought announced that radical steps would be taken to alter the current trajectory.
Vought stated, “Just giving an extra billion dollars doesn’t get you a ship delivered any earlier. We have to, in his words, take a bulldozer to the bureaucracy.”
Noting that the administration could use the “budget reconciliation” method to bypass the 60-vote threshold in the Senate to increase defense spending, Vought argued that time is more valuable than political capital.
Vought used the expressions, “Political capital is not our scarcest resource; you can always build that. Time is our scarcest resource.”
The crisis in shipbuilding was one of the forum’s main agenda items. Vought reminded the audience that only 2% of US ship production is domestically linked, whereas China holds 74% of the global market.
Stating that they plan to utilize the capital and expertise of allies like South Korea to address this imbalance, Vought said, “It is my job to change the current trajectory.”
Critical five-year window for the West’s future
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan and a heavyweight in the financial world, announced that they have launched a $1.5 trillion investment initiative directed at the defense industry.
Dimon emphasized that the Ukraine war has shattered illusions regarding Western security and that maintaining American military superiority is no longer a choice, but a necessity.
Issuing stern warnings about the risk of Europe fragmenting, Dimon said, “If we were to write a book about how the West was lost, it would be about how we didn’t do our job right here and allowed Europe to fracture.”
Giving a clear answer to the question of how much time remains to take necessary measures, Dimon said, “We have five years,” and added: “Five years means you have to start doing the right thing today.”
RTX CEO Chris Calio also drew attention to the fragility in the supply chain, stating that the Ukraine war has exposed gaps in production capacity.
Calio said, “There were two-year production gaps in systems like Patriot. Multi-year gaps had formed for Javelin,” adding that the industry needs to scale rapidly.
“Hellscape” strategy in the artificial intelligence race
Indo-Pacific Command Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo explained that the character of war is changing and that artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, and data are at the center of this change.
Paparo stated that deterrence against China involves making an attack costly for the enemy.
Saying, “The nature of war never changes, but there are three meta-trends affecting its character,” Paparo listed these as information operations, the proliferation of drone warfare, and precision strike capability.
The Commander emphasized that the US goal is to ensure “decision superiority,” stating, “I want to use artificial intelligence to blind, deceive, and destroy the enemy’s ability to see and perceive.”
Technology investor Joe Lonsdale, who participated in the artificial intelligence panel, complained about regulatory hurdles in the US.
Noting that there are thousands of bills waiting in states to regulate artificial intelligence, Lonsdale warned, “If we allow all these regulations to pass, we cannot win the artificial intelligence race against China.”
The “last 10 meters” debate in the Ukraine war
The future of the war in Ukraine was one of the forum’s most heated topics of discussion. Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who plays an active role in negotiation processes, implied that the conflict is close to ending, assessing that “The last 10 meters to the objective are always the hardest.”
Kellogg reminded the audience that the humanitarian cost of the war has reached massive dimensions and that there is a risk of losing a generation.
However, Democratic Senator Chris Coons argued that any concession given to Putin would be dangerous. Coons used the expressions, “Putin is a thug and a gangster. You don’t negotiate with a gangster by saying, ‘You took my thumb, would you like my hand too?’”
Coons stated that closing the path to NATO membership for Ukraine or giving territorial concessions would send the wrong message to other authoritarian regimes like China.
Finnish Minister of Defense Antti Hakkanen emphasized that Europe needs to implement harsher economic sanctions against Russia, saying, “What will bring Putin to the table is the hard collapse of the Russian economy.”
Venezuela and “backyard” security
The prioritization of Western Hemisphere security in the new administration’s National Security Strategy brought the issues of Venezuela and the fight against drug cartels to the forefront.
Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and Retired General Jack Keane discussed military activity in the region and possible regime change scenarios.
Stating that 25-30% of the US Navy is deployed off the coast of Venezuela, Panetta said, “If Maduro is still there after the deployment of this fleet, this is clearly a failed mission.”
General Keane emphasized that the administration is approaching the region with a comprehensive perspective and that the Maduro regime has become intertwined with the cartels. Keane said, “The President has already said he is interested in regime change because he asked Maduro to leave.”
US Vice Chief of Staff of the Air Force General Dan Caine also stated, “Protecting the homeland is no longer just a term we say, it is a real thing,” indicating that the military will take action to protect its own neighborhood.
Responding to a question about whether an artificial intelligence arms race has been entered with China, Caine replied, “There is a possibility we are entering an artificial intelligence arms race.”
Technology revolution and unmanned aerial vehicles at the Pentagon
The US Army’s modernization efforts were addressed by Lockheed Martin CEO Jim Taiclet and General Randy George.
Taiclet explained how artificial intelligence is being used in operations conducted against the Houthis in the Red Sea. Stating that data from Aegis radar systems is transferred via Starlink to a center in New Jersey where it is processed to distinguish targets, Taiclet said, “It took us about a month to narrow 38 false targets down to two.”
Taiclet also mentioned a new technology that allows F-22 pilots to control drones from the cockpit. “We are doing this with a tablet you can buy from the Apple Store,” Taiclet said, explaining that a pilot can manage eight unmanned aerial vehicles (CCA) with a fingertip.
General George emphasized that the army is working to reach the “one million drones” goal and that integrating unmanned systems into units is of vital importance.
Saying, “I think the first contact will be established with drones,” George expressed that the transformation on the battlefield is inevitable.
America
Milei hardens Falklands stance with oil sanctions and defence push
Argentine President Javier Milei has said he will tighten sanctions on companies involved in oil projects around the Falkland/Malvinas Islands.
Milei also said he would increase defence resources in the south of the country and submit a bill to Congress aimed at strengthening Argentina’s response to what he described as violations of sovereignty.
In a televised address, Milei said he would sign a decree to accelerate sanctions under Argentine law against companies participating in oil and gas extraction activities in the territory, which Argentina considers its own but which remains under British control.
Speaking in an address to the nation early on Friday morning, Milei said the United Kingdom was facing a migration and economic crisis, adding that this meant Argentina would prevail in its claim over the Falkland Islands:
“If we look at the structural crisis in the United Kingdom, it is clear that the country is facing multiple crises on many fronts, including migration, demographics, and a difficult economic situation. It is clear that Argentina’s future is extremely promising and that Argentina will prevail.”
Milei said Argentina would intensify efforts to sanction not only the companies involved, but also their shareholders, executives, and suppliers.
“We will continue to prevent companies that are directly or indirectly involved in projects (on the islands) without Argentina’s permission from operating on Argentine territory,” the Argentine leader said.
He also stated that the government would issue an emergency decree to expand defence resources, under which a naval base would be built in the nearby province of Tierra del Fuego and telecommunications capabilities would be strengthened.
Milei added that he would submit an urgent “national defence of sovereignty” bill to Congress in order to stiffen penalties for unauthorised activities around the islands, extend sanctions to suppliers, and broaden the legal framework to cover other activities affecting Argentina’s natural resources.
Milei noted that Argentina had determined that the Sea Lion offshore project, operated by Navitas Petroleum and Rockhopper Exploration, could begin oil exploration work in the coming months, presenting an imminent threat to Argentine interests.
The remarks mark a harder line from Milei, who had previously called for the Falkland Islands dispute to be resolved through diplomacy even while seeking warmer ties with Britain.
A British overseas territory located roughly 500 km east of the Argentine mainland, the Falkland Islands have long been claimed by Argentina.
Britain has controlled the islands since 1833, and the two countries fought a brief war over them in 1982.
London maintains that residents of the Falkland Islands voted on their political status and right to self-determination in a referendum held in March 2013. An overwhelming majority of 99.8% voted to remain an overseas territory of the United Kingdom.
In his speech, Milei stated that residents of the Falkland Islands do not possess the right to self-determination and called on the country to unite around its claim to the islands.
Arguing that the global wind is currently “blowing in favour of Argentina’s demands”, Milei said: “A short time ago, President [Donald] Trump announced that the US is reconsidering its historic stance on the Malvinas islands.”
The British conservative newspaper The Telegraph wrote that the move would appease the US president, who intervened in the dispute and implied he would not assist the United Kingdom in fighting off an invasion of the Falkland Islands.
Asked whether the US would “come to the aid” of Britain, Trump referred to his confrontation with Iran, saying: “Your country was not there to help me.”
Trump then questioned whether Britain would have the capacity to defend the islands, telling GB News:
“Look, I was there when the first war broke out. That was a very long time ago, and I watched it very closely. You handled yourselves very well. You took the islands back quite decisively, but it is very far away.”
Speculation is mounting that Buenos Aires and Washington are discussing an agreement granting the US access to oil extracted off the Malvinas.
On the eve of Milei’s speech, Argentine Minister of Energy and Mining Daniel Gonzalez Casartelli was in Washington to discuss energy investments with American oil companies and members of the Trump administration.
Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu’s son Yair clashed with the British right by demanding that the Falkland Islands be placed under Argentine sovereignty.
According to Bloomberg, Argentina is currently in the midst of an oil boom. Drilling activity is accelerating in the Vaca Muerta shale formation in Patagonia, which already produces more than 1 million barrels of oil and gas per day.
The country also has some offshore production operations, and exploration activities have been carried out in South Atlantic waters in recent years.
Meanwhile, Milei met Sarah Rogers, a senior US State Department official, at a conservative political forum held in Chile.
Reiterating Argentina’s claim to the islands, Milei said: “We must take back these islands, which are negligible in national terms. There is no other way forward. This is the best way to pay tribute to those who sacrificed their lives for this cause.”
America
US House passes bill to strip federal aid over Israel boycotts
The US House of Representatives has passed a controversial bill to strip federal financial aid from colleges and universities that participate in boycotts against Israel.
The Republican-led measure targets calls for accountability directed at the Tel Aviv government over its military campaign in the Gaza Strip, as well as expressions of solidarity with Palestine on university campuses.
Entitled the “Protecting Economic and Academic Freedom Act of 2026”, the legislation was approved on Thursday in a 237–169 vote.
Only two Republican lawmakers voted against the measure, while 33 Democrats broke party lines to vote in favour. The bill will now proceed to the Senate.
Designated as H.R. 4795, the proposal bars colleges and universities that benefit from federal student aid programmes from engaging in commercial boycotts against Israel.
Institutions receiving Title VI funding for international studies and foreign language programmes are also required to certify that they do not prevent students or faculty from participating in academic programmes in the occupied territories, nor restrict Israeli students and academics from accessing their campuses.
The bill was co-sponsored by Representative Virginia Foxx, a North Carolina Republican, and Representative Josh Gottheimer, a New Jersey Democrat.
Representative Tim Walberg, chairman of the House Education Committee, argued that taxpayer money should under no circumstances flow to institutions that “discriminate against Israel”.
Gottheimer, a staunch supporter of the Israeli government, stated that the BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions) movement is a campaign “targeting a single country and a single religion”.
Opponents of the bill emphasised that the measure seeks to solve a non-existent problem and constitutes an attack on constitutionally protected free speech.
The ranking Democrat on the committee, Representative Bobby Scott, pointed out that not a single US college or university has actually joined the global BDS movement. Scott recalled that while student and faculty bodies have announced support for BDS, university administrations have refused to implement those demands.
During the floor debate, Scott said: “We must fight antisemitism wherever it appears, but we should not do so by penalising protected free speech or conflating a student’s view with university policy.”
Representative Jerrold Nadler, a New York Democrat who opposes the BDS movement, also voted against the bill. Nadler noted that the only way to protect opinions one agrees with is to defend the right to express opinions one does not agree with.
The liberal Jewish organisation J Street was also among the actors opposing the bill. The group warned that the measure conflates boycotts of the Israeli government with those directed at companies linked to illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank.
J Street stated that the bill places Israel in an exceptional position, does nothing to protect Jewish students, and risks inflaming antisemitism rather than countering it. By contrast, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) openly backed the legislation.
The vote follows nearly three years of sustained protests by students and faculty against Israel’s war in Gaza.
According to data from the Ministry of Health in Gaza, attacks carried out following the 7 October 2023 operation and the subsequent military campaign launched by Israel have killed more than 73,000 Palestinians, while flattening the vast majority of the region’s universities, schools, and civilian infrastructure.
Encampments erected on university campuses demanded an end to the carnage and called on universities to divest financial holdings from companies profiting from the occupation and the war.
The Washington administration and its allies frequently characterised these protests as antisemitic. The Trump administration, meanwhile, targeted universities with various investigations and threats to freeze federal funds.
Aiming to protect their congressional majority in the November midterm elections and during the final two years of Trump’s term, House Republicans are keeping the issue on the agenda to deepen divisions among Democrats, who have grown increasingly critical of Israel as mass casualties in Gaza mount.
In July, amid accusations that the campaign in Gaza had reached genocidal proportions, more than 100 House Democrats supported an initiative to cut certain military aid to Israel, a US ally.
Critics argue that the latest bill is an extension of anti-BDS legislation previously enacted across more than 30 US states, which compels public contractors and public institutions to pledge not to boycott Israel.
Free speech advocates have long maintained that these state laws conflict with the First Amendment of the Constitution.
The measure passed by the House of Representatives aims to expand this pressure to the entire federal student financial aid system.
Although no US university has formally adopted a BDS decision, the bill makes even limited commercial or academic distancing from the Israeli government—including entities operating in the occupied Palestinian territories—grounds for terminating federal funding.
America
Pentagon office takes 35% stake in Venezuela oil venture
The Trump administration’s oil agreement with Venezuela represents the riskiest venture to date for a Pentagon unit originally established for an entirely different purpose.
The White House announced this week that the Office of Strategic Capital (OSC), an entity operating under the Department of Defence, will acquire a 35% stake “at no cost to American taxpayers” in North American Blue Energy Partners, a firm headed by politically connected Venezuelan investor Alejandro Betancourt.
The objective is to make Venezuelan oilfields more attractive to US investors, thereby increasing revenue for Caracas whilst simultaneously squeezing out Chinese and Russian firms.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the OSC has already facilitated equity acquisitions in at least five other companies during President Donald Trump’s second term. The OSC was created to provide loans for the development of critical technologies.
However, because the Venezuelan agreement involves petroleum rather than conventional critical technology, it stretches the agency’s statutory boundaries even further and has already prompted Democrats to pledge congressional investigations.
Should Democrats regain power in Washington this November, any oversight drive could place the office’s efforts to secure state equity positions in private corporations under intense scrutiny.
In an interview with Semafor, a former OSC official stated:
“Acquiring equity was never intended when the OSC was founded; that circumstance alone does not necessarily constitute a problem. Nevertheless, it raises some legitimate legal and ethical questions.”
Jon Hillman, who directs the council’s tracking system, noted in an interview that the Venezuelan oil deal “appears to be uncharted territory”, adding that the office’s “mission is to catalyze private investment into specific, critical supply chain technologies necessary for national security.”
The statute that established the OSC defines its authority to provide “capital support” as extending and guaranteeing loans and offering technical assistance.
A Pentagon spokesperson initially told Reuters that the office was “not acquiring equity” in private enterprises due to this constrained remit.
On Tuesday, however, a US official offered a contrasting account to journalists, stating that the authority to acquire a stake in Betancourt’s company via “penny warrants” was “granted to the OSC when it was enacted into law under the Biden administration.”
A “penny warrant” is a financial contract that confers upon its holder the right to purchase corporate shares at a negligible, nominal price.
The US official added:
“This is an entirely standard arrangement in terms of the OSC’s capacity to maintain the financial position it holds under this agreement, and all financial positions granted to the OSC comply fully with the law.”
Peter Harrell, a visiting scholar at Georgetown University Law Center, said in an interview that it was “impossible to render a definitive legal opinion” because officials had “not advanced a precise legal theory.”
Harrell added that the Trump administration may be banking on no party possessing either the legal standing or the inclination to bring a lawsuit over the transaction.
That calculation encompasses oil corporations hoping to profit from the newly reopened Venezuelan petroleum sector.
Cari Stinebower, an attorney at the law firm Steptoe who advises petroleum firms seeking to conduct business in Venezuela, said: “I suspect everyone may be quietly perplexed. Yet I do not believe anyone will speak out, because virtually everyone wants to participate in the investment opportunities in Venezuela.”
Jack Reed, the senior Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, is among those already demanding further particulars regarding the agency’s statutory authority to conclude the agreement.
Certain Republicans are likewise keen to obtain additional information concerning the Venezuelan deal.
The Biden administration formed the OSC in 2022 to provide loans to businesses developing technologies deemed “vital” to national security.
Recent legislative initiatives aimed at formally expanding its authority to encompass equity investments have so far foundered.
Yet under the direction of Deputy Secretary of Defence Steve Feinberg, the administration pressed forward regardless, enlisting bankers to help deploy a lending authority that surged from $1 billion to $200 billion courtesy of recent party-line Republican tax legislation.
The current director of the OSC, David Lorch, previously served as a managing director at Cerberus Capital Management, the private equity firm founded by Feinberg.
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