Diplomacy
North Sea oil hits record $147 as Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
A ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran has failed to halt the global energy crisis, driving North Sea oil prices to record levels.
A frantic scramble by European and Asian refiners to secure oil cargoes, coupled with a fresh wave of market anxiety over Iran’s continued pressure on the Strait of Hormuz, pushed North Sea prices to historic peaks on Thursday.
Forties Blend, a benchmark for immediate delivery crude, reached nearly $147 per barrel on Thursday according to LSEG data, surpassing the peaks seen on the eve of the 2008 financial crisis. Traders are struggling to source replacement cargoes for the massive volumes currently stranded in the Gulf.
Physical barrels from the North Sea were trading significantly higher than the $97 price of the international Brent benchmark for June delivery, a further signal of supply scarcity fears in the oil market.
The rush to secure cargoes was so intense that it disrupted a vital pillar of the oil market. Traders reported an inability to purchase Brent contracts for difference (CFDs) for next week after the price per barrel exceeded $30, breaching the threshold set by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). ICE is the primary exchange for European oil trading, and these contracts are widely used to hedge against price spikes. Multiple market participants noted they could not recall a time when Brent CFDs were untradable, adding that some transactions are now occurring over-the-counter. ICE did not respond to a request for comment.
The signs of escalating tension underscore how the global energy crisis is worsening, despite US President Donald Trump’s assertions that Tehran would soon reopen the strait. Regarding the waterway, which carried 20% of global oil supply before the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, Trump said Thursday: “You’re going to see oil start flowing very soon.” However, he also warned Tehran that it was doing a “very bad job” of allowing oil shipments through the strait and stated that it “should not be charging a fee” for safe passage.
Only a handful of vessels, most with Iranian affiliations, have transited the strait since a two-week ceasefire was declared on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs informed clients on Thursday that oil exports through the strait have plummeted in recent days, operating at just 8% of normal levels. Asia is particularly vulnerable to the disruption, as approximately 80% of its required oil and petroleum products transit this waterway.
Tehran has insisted that the agreement with the US allows it to maintain control over the strait, requiring vessels to obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and pay fees. Hours after the agreement to halt hostilities was reached, Iran stopped the passage of oil tankers through the strait in response to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
“If this continues for a few more days, we may see the market conclude that the straits are closed indefinitely, which could lead not just to a price spike but to a crisis in Asia,” said Amos Hochstein, energy advisor to former president Joe Biden. “This is not just about high prices. This is about a real physical shortage taking place,” he added.
In another sign of market tightening, Saudi Arabia said Thursday that its oil production capacity had dropped by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) following recent attacks on energy infrastructure. The strikes damaged production capacity at the Khurais and Manifa fields, knocking out approximately 5% of the kingdom’s normal 12 million bpd capacity. The Ministry of Energy also announced that an attack this week on the East-West pipeline—a critical route for bypassing the Strait of Hormuz—caused a loss of approximately 700,000 bpd in transit volume.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, warned that the tight supply in the “physical market” would remain “until ships start moving through the Strait of Hormuz.” He added: “There will be selling in the futures market, but the physical market will remain tight because even when the strait opens, it will take 20 days to fix the logistical issues.”
Dated Brent, a benchmark tracked by pricing agency Platts that reflects the price of physical oil shipments traded in the North Sea (including Forties Blend), rose 7% to $131.96 on Thursday, recovering a portion of the previous day’s decline triggered by the ceasefire agreement.
Trading volume in the futures markets was calmer. Brent for June delivery rose 1% to $97.20 in New York trading, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for May delivery rose 4.7% to $99.16.
Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, described futures market prices as a “lagging indicator for the physical market realities of Middle East waterways.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, in a telephone call on Thursday that Iran has not yet begun direct talks with the US, despite the two-week ceasefire agreed upon this week.
Trump is sending a delegation led by Vice President JD Vance, Special Representative Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to Islamabad this weekend for talks.
Diplomacy
Greece’s Marinakis says paying Hormuz transit fees beats enduring Red Sea shipping crisis detour
Evangelos Marinakis, one of Greece’s leading shipowners, has announced that he is prepared to pay up to $200,000 per transit to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to civilian maritime traffic.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Marinakis stated that paying a transit fee would be a far better option for him than having the strait closed to navigation.
As the chairman of Capital Maritime Group, which controls a fleet of 185 vessels including approximately 35 tankers, Marinakis emphasized that shipowners have been forced to use alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope for years due to attacks launched by the Houthis in the Red Sea, a detour that has generated substantial additional costs.
The Greek shipowner indicated that paying a transit fee of $100,000 or $200,000, depending on the size of the cargo or the vessel, is far more reasonable than enduring the current logistical challenges. He added that such payments could offset all the losses experienced so far.
Following US strikes on Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the Tehran administration had introduced transit fees of up to $2 million for certain vessels transiting the waterway.
In May, Iran announced the establishment of a state agency tasked with managing the Strait of Hormuz. It was stated that the institution in question would provide real-time updates regarding maritime activities in the waterway.
Ebrahim Azizi, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, had noted that only commercial vessels and countries cooperating with Iran would be able to benefit from the facilities provided under this “professional mechanism.”
US President Donald Trump has explicitly opposed the imposition of transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz. In a statement on the matter, Trump said, “We want the strait to be open. We do not want any transit fees to be charged. This is an international waterway.”
On the other hand, the draft text of a planned 60-day ceasefire extension agreement between the parties stipulates that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open without any transit fees being demanded.
According to the draft details reviewed by Axios, the US in return commits to lifting the blockade it has imposed on Iranian ports. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, however, announced that the management of the Strait of Hormuz has been excluded from the scope of the agreement with the US, asserting that the issue will be addressed solely by littoral states.
Diplomacy
Pashinyan promises aid to farmers hit by Russian import restrictions
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pledged compensation for Armenian farmers affected by restrictions on exports to Russia.
According to Sputnik Armenia, Pashinyan made the announcement during an election campaign meeting in the Gegharkunik region.
Speaking at the event, Pashinyan said the subsidies would be designed to offset losses incurred by producers.
The prime minister also acknowledged that some Armenian products had failed to meet required quality standards, adding that such companies would receive support aimed at improving product quality.
Addressing alternative markets for Armenian exports, Pashinyan said several Armenian business delegations were already engaged in negotiations abroad.
He added that Armenia had received offers for the purchase of roses as well as fresh fruits and vegetables.
Pashinyan argued that Armenia’s agricultural output was not particularly large, describing this as an advantage under current circumstances. According to the prime minister, “a respected supermarket chain in Europe” would be capable of selling the entire volume of these products on its own.
Russia’s Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance (Rosselkhoznadzor) imposed temporary restrictions on imports of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia effective July 2.
The ban covers cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches and nectarines, among other products.
On the same day, a temporary suspension was also introduced on certification procedures for live fish shipments from Armenia. Russian authorities had previously restricted the entry of flower products originating from Armenia into the Russian market.
In addition, Russia’s Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing (Rospotrebnadzor) halted the import of all consignments of Jermuk mineral water from Armenia.
In a statement, the agency said levels of bicarbonate, chloride and sulfate ions in the mineral water exceeded established limits and could mislead consumers regarding the product’s medicinal properties.
The Russian regulator argued that the growing number of violations stemmed from the abolition of Armenia’s Agriculture Ministry and the transfer of its responsibilities to the Economy Ministry.
Rosselkhoznadzor further stated that Armenia’s Economy Ministry was experiencing structural problems and was unable to adequately perform the supervisory functions assigned to it.
Diplomacy
Zelenskyy urges US to grant Ukraine license to produce Patriot missiles
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he has asked the United States to grant Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defence system.
In a post on social media platform X, Zelenskyy argued that current US production of missile defence interceptors is insufficient and could contribute to crises in different parts of the world.
“Producing 60-65 missiles a month is nothing compared with the challenges we face today. This is no secret, and Russia knows it as well,” Zelenskyy wrote. “We need to expand production. As I requested from the previous US administration, I am asking the current administration to grant Ukraine a license to produce Patriot missiles.”
Zelenskyy said US companies possess advanced technologies that are not available in Ukraine, while Kyiv could contribute its extensive battlefield experience in return.
He also argued that granting such a license would benefit not only Ukraine, but also the Middle East and any country Washington chooses to support.
Washington pledges to maintain defence support
Zelenskyy’s remarks came a day after US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on May 30 that Washington would continue supporting Ukraine’s defence capabilities and ensure military shipments to Kyiv continue.
“We want them to be able to defend themselves, and we will find a way to help them do that,” Hegseth said.
Several days earlier, Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Air Force, warned that the country’s air defence forces were experiencing a shortage of missiles.
“Due to certain supply problems, we are practically at starvation levels when it comes to missiles today,” Ihnat said.
Concerns persist over air defence missile stocks
In April, Zelenskyy warned that Ukraine’s stockpile of air defence missiles could be exhausted at any moment.
He said that under current conditions, air defence missiles were more critical for Ukraine than the air defence systems themselves.
Highlighting what he described as a critical shortage of Patriot missiles, Zelenskyy said: “We are facing a deficit now that could hardly be worse.”
Concerns that Ukraine could face a severe shortage of US-made air defence missiles had previously been reported by Reuters.
The situation was expected to worsen as the United States and its allies depleted significant portions of their arsenals during tensions with Iran, a point Zelenskyy also underscored.
In a separate statement in January, Zelenskyy said Ukraine lacked sufficient missiles for both US- and European-made air defence systems.
The Ukrainian leader said he had been forced to personally secure every package of missiles from European countries and the United States.
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