Connect with us

America

Pentagon’s 2026 strategy pivots to flexible realism and warrior spirit to counter China

Published

on

The US Department of Defense has released its 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS), outlining a pivotal shift toward “flexible realism”—a doctrine that prioritizes the protection of American interests over global “nation-building” projects.

According to the NDS, this approach is anchored by a “Trump Addendum to the Monroe Doctrine,” which prioritizes the security of the US homeland and maintains dominance over the Western Hemisphere. This document follows and reinforces the broader US National Security Strategy (NSS).

The strategy identifies China as the “primary rival” and issues a blunt demand to allies and partners: they must significantly increase their financial contributions, targeting a new spending standard of 5% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Through a “national industrial mobilization” and the “revival of the warrior spirit,” the NDS aims to deter adversaries such as Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Ultimately, the strategy seeks to achieve global stability by rebalancing military responsibilities and focusing on pragmatic security rather than idealistic foreign interventions.

America First: Rejection of “utopian idealism”

The 2026 National Defense Strategy defines “flexible realism” as a clear-eyed, common-sense approach to national security that prioritizes American interests over abstract global ideals.

Flexible realism rejects the “grand strategies” of previous administrations that conflated American interests with those of the entire world or sought to “solve all the world’s problems.” Instead, it focuses on “real, credible threats to the safety, liberty, and prosperity of Americans,” acknowledging that threats to the US homeland are more visceral and significant than those in distant regions.

The NDS explicitly contrasts flexible realism with “castles in the clouds” abstractions like “utopian idealism” and the “rules-based international order.” It declares an end to goals such as regime change, “endless wars,” and “grand nation-building projects,” replacing them with a “hard-headed realism” designed to achieve a “noble and proud peace.”

According to the Pentagon, this approach requires a pragmatic correlation between resources and objectives. The NDS acknowledges that the US “cannot act everywhere alone” and cannot solve every global problem; it calls for the military to “evaluate, rank, and prioritize” threats based on their severity.

In practice, flexible realism aims for a “resilient and sustainable balance of power” rather than total global hegemony. Regarding China, for instance, the strategy seeks a “reasonable peace” and a balance of power that prevents Chinese dominance over the US, explicitly stating that this goal does not require “regime change or another existential struggle.”

The document contends that this approach “does not mean isolationism.” On the contrary, it envisions a “focused and truly strategic approach” where the US acts globally to advance its practical interests—particularly alongside allies—while insisting that those allies shoulder the primary burden of their own regional defense.

Burden sharing and defense spending

The NDS fundamentally redefines global burden-sharing, shifting alliances from a model subsidized by the US to one of “clear accountability” and self-sufficiency. It argues that allies must cease acting as “dependents” and instead function as true partners.

This “America First” approach asserts that by prioritizing US interests and demanding that allies take primary responsibility for their own security in most theaters, the US can concentrate its resources on defending the homeland and deterring China.

In this context, the strategy redefines requirements through specific financial targets, operational changes, and strategic ultimatums. These include a new global financial standard, “primary responsibility” for allies where the US acts as a supporter rather than a lead, and the prioritization of “model allies.”

For example, the US will now look to delegate the Ukraine issue to Europe, the tensions on the Korean Peninsula to South Korea, and the management of Iranian aggression in the Middle East to Israel and Gulf allies.

By compelling allies to act, the Pentagon aims to focus the US military on its two highest priorities: defending the US and deterring China in the Indo-Pacific.

The primary strategic rival: China

The NDS describes one of the “most dangerous” security environments in the nation’s history, where adversaries have grown increasingly powerful because the US failed to maintain its advantages.

Major geopolitical threats are categorized not only by state actors but also by their geographical proximity to the American homeland and the systemic risk of simultaneous conflicts.

The strategy identifies the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the primary strategic rival. The NDS describes the PRC as “the most powerful state we have faced since the 19th century,” asserting it ranks second only to the US on a global scale.

The threat from China is defined by the “pace, scale, and quality” of its military forces, which include capabilities capable of striking targets far beyond the Western Pacific.

The Pentagon points out that the fundamental danger is not merely military, but China’s potential to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. There is significant concern that such dominance would effectively control American access to the “world’s economic center of gravity.”

Accordingly, the US goal is to maintain a balance of power to prevent China from dominating the US or its allies, seeking a “reasonable peace” rather than pursuing regime change.

The NDS approach to China is summarized as “deterring China in the Indo-Pacific through strength, not conflict.” Rather than seeking confrontation or isolation, the strategy envisions a dual approach: building robust military deterrence (“strength”) as a prerequisite for effective diplomatic and military engagement.

The document explicitly states that the US goal is not to “dominate China” or to “strangle or humiliate” it. Instead, the US will seek a “reasonable peace” characterized by a balance of power where no country can dominate another.

A message to Europe: Provide your own security

The 2026 National Defense Strategy fundamentally redefines Europe’s role from a region dependent on American security guarantees to one that assumes “primary responsibility” for its own conventional defense.

The strategy makes it clear that NATO allies must transition to taking the lead in defending the continent, while the United States provides “critical but more limited support.”

This shift is based on the assessment that Russia is a “persistent but manageable threat” and that the collective economic and military power of NATO members in Europe “dwarfs” that of Russia. The document notes that the German economy alone far outstrips Russia’s.

Consequently, the NDS argues that Russia is “not in a position to attempt European hegemony,” meaning Europe is capable of managing the threat without US dominance.

Europe serves as the testing ground for the White House’s new “global standard” for burden-sharing. The strategy references a “Hague Summit” where NATO allies are expected to set a total defense spending target of 5% of GDP. While the Pentagon emphasizes it will “provide incentives and opportunities” for allies to meet these targets, it insists these commitments must be fulfilled.

While stating that the war in Ukraine “must end,” the document places the responsibility for supporting Ukraine’s defense and maintaining the subsequent peace directly on European allies.

Declaring this to be “primarily Europe’s responsibility,” the document rejects the previous administration’s approach, which it claims allowed allies to engage in “free-riding.”

To help NATO allies generate the forces necessary for their own defense, the strategy envisions expanding transatlantic defense industrial cooperation and reducing trade barriers.

The “Model Ally”: A primary role for Israel in the region

Under the 2026 National Defense Strategy, Israel is identified as the “model ally” and serves as the primary example of the “America First” approach to burden-sharing.

The strategy redefines the US relationship with Israel based on the principle that allies must have the will and capability to defend themselves, with the US providing “critical but limited support.”

According to the Pentagon, Israel fits the definition of a “model ally” because, particularly following the October 7 attacks, it has proven it possesses the “capability and willingness to defend itself.”

Unlike allies criticized as “dependents,” the document praises Israel for taking action for its own survival. Consequently, the strategy states that the US should “empower” Israel rather than “tie its hands.”

Consistent with the strategy’s broader push for regional burden-sharing, Israel is expected to assume “primary responsibility for deterring and defending against Iran and its proxies.”

The document contends that Israel’s operations have “severely weakened” Iranian proxies, specifically Hezbollah and Hamas.

Israel’s role extends to stabilizing the regional security architecture. Building explicitly on the Abraham Accords, the Pentagon intends to “achieve integration between Israel and our Arab Gulf partners.” This effort aims to create a coalition where regional partners collectively exert more effort to defend themselves, allowing the US to focus its primary attention on the Indo-Pacific and its own borders.

While Israel leads the fight, the US commits to “strongly supporting Israel’s self-defense efforts.” This support is characterized as “critical but limited”: the US will provide the tools and support necessary for Israel to succeed (such as arms sales and intelligence sharing) but will not assume the primary combat role on the ground.

Instructions to the Gulf: “Integration with Israel”

According to the 2026 National Defense Strategy, a successful transformation of the region is defined by the establishment of a “more peaceful and prosperous Middle East” achieved through local ownership rather than American intervention.

The Pentagon argues that this transformation cannot be imposed from the outside. According to the US, it can only be realized by “those with the greatest stake in the region’s future”—the regional nations themselves.

Success is defined by regional allies and partners assuming “primary responsibility for deterring and defending against Iran and its proxies.” The US role shifts from leading the struggle to a supportive one.

According to the NDS, a successful transformation requires “deepening cooperation and integration” between Israel and Arab American partners, explicitly based on the framework of the Abraham Accords.

Defense industry linked to Trumpist economic policies

The NDS describes its industrial mobilization plan as a “national mobilization” and an “industrial call to arms,” likening it to the industrial revivals of the World Wars and the Cold War.

The plan aims to “strengthen the US Defense Industrial Base (DIB)” to support the President’s claim of a “once-in-a-century revival of American industry.”

This includes the re-establishment of a “world-class arsenal”; modernization and deregulation; the adoption of AI and innovation; internal reform of the Pentagon to increase production capacity; the expansion of the supplier base; and deepening integration with allies.

Preparing the military for war

The document defines the “warrior spirit” as the “heart of the US military”—a set of values exemplified by American heroes such as World War II veterans.

According to the document, the “warrior spirit” is inextricably linked to the military’s “fundamental, irreplaceable role.” Reviving this spirit is presented as necessary for the American military to refocus on “decisively winning the nation’s wars.”

This entails moving away from what the document describes as distractions, such as “social engineering” or “nation-building.”

The core premise of the strategy is the claim that previous administrations neglected and often “actively undermined” this spirit.

The document argues that true deterrence is a byproduct of a military focused on lethal force and victory, rather than abstract concepts like “grand nation-building projects” or the “rules-based international order.”

America

Trump energy shares rose by up to $4.4m during Iran war, CNBC reports

Published

on

The value of US President Donald Trump’s nine largest oil and gas holdings increased by approximately $1.5 million to $4.4 million during the first six months of the war with Iran.

According to an analysis conducted by CNBC based on the American leader’s financial disclosure, corporate balance sheets, and FactSet market data, the investment basket includes shares in Chevron, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Kinder Morgan, Marathon Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Phillips 66, Valero Energy, and Williams Companies.

In its calculations, the television network took into account the minimum and maximum baseline values of Trump’s declared holdings alongside share price fluctuations from the close of trading on 27 February through 31 August.

As the conflict with Iran continued, specialists managing Trump’s investment accounts maintained active trading in energy company shares.

Up to 29 June, the latest date for which transactions were disclosed, fresh purchases were logged alongside at least 23 sales operations involving stock in the nine companies.

Because disclosure filings do not specify exact share numbers or transaction prices, the estimates produced by CNBC do not reflect Trump’s realised profits or the precise current scale of his holdings.

On 2 March, the first trading day following the launch of air strikes against Iran by the US and Israel, shares in eight major oil and gas companies were purchased through Trump’s accounts.

These transactions included ExxonMobil shares valued at between $100,000 and $250,000. Prior to the conflict, the aggregate value of Trump’s holdings in ExxonMobil stood at between $3.2 million and $12.5 million.

Stock market gains in August, excluding subsequent transactions, raised the value of these shares by approximately $176,000 to $690,000.

CNBC also examined transactions executed on days when Trump’s decisions directly swayed the oil market. On 23 March, when the president deferred planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure, the price of a barrel of Brent crude dropped by roughly 11%.

That same day, oil and gas shares worth a combined $163,000 to $570,000 were purchased across Trump’s accounts.

A similar transaction took place on 7 April. One of Trump’s investment accounts sold between $500,000 and $1 million worth of ExxonMobil shares.

Approximately two and a half hours after markets closed, President Trump announced an agreement on a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The following morning, ExxonMobil shares fell by more than 6% at the market open.

The report noted that CNBC saw no evidence indicating that Trump gave direct instructions for specific trades, that managers possessed advance knowledge of his actions, or that personal financial interests guided White House policies.

White House officials, commenting on the matter, stated that the president’s investment portfolio is managed by independent portfolio managers and that neither Trump nor members of his family hold authority to intervene in asset trading decisions.

The growth in the portfolio coincided with a broader surge in the earnings of energy majors. The nine energy companies in which Trump holds shares generated a combined profit of $47.6 billion in the second quarter.

During the same period last year, that figure stood at $15.9 billion. The profits of ExxonMobil and Chevron alone climbed from $9.6 billion in the prior year to $26.6 billion.

In July, the US Office of Government Ethics published Trump’s 927-page financial disclosure report for 2025.

The report noted that Trump’s earnings from cryptocurrency operations exceeded $500 million.

Continue Reading

America

Over half of Latino voters back Democrats in key US House races

Published

on

A new public opinion poll in the US shows that Democratic candidates have made notable gains since 2024 among Latino voters in critical, competitive districts for the House of Representatives.

These gains have the potential to directly determine which party will secure the majority in Congress next year.

According to a joint survey by Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision shared with Axios, Democrats reached 58% support on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters across 17 competitive House districts.

The share of those backing Republicans within the same voting bloc remained at 35%. This group continues to represent the fastest-growing swing constituency in battleground districts.

Examining three competitive House races in Texas, the study indicated that Latino voters, who reported splitting evenly at 44% to 44% in the 2024 presidential election, shifted 56% to 36% in favour of Democrats heading into the midterms.

Latino support for Democrats also increased in other states. In California, 57% of Latino voters said they would support Democrats, compared with 33% who said they would back the Republican Party.

Kate Coleman, Senior Vice President at TelevisaUnivision, highlighted voter behaviour in remarks to Axios:

“Latino voters are not locked into one party. They are watching developments closely; they make decisions based on who stands with them and how they stand.”

The survey data determined that 11% of Latino respondents who said they voted for Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election now support Democratic candidates.

Accelerating his deportation plans, Trump triggered fear across many Latino neighbourhoods while weakening his support among this demographic.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision study revealed that 63% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s presidential job performance. The share of those approving of his performance in office stood at 36%.

Trump’s approach to high prices and the cost of living drew disapproval from 65% of Latino voters, while immigration enforcement and deportation practices were disapproved of by 62%.

More than half of Latino voters, at 64%, reported that they disapprove of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

A survey published in May by UnidosUS showed that a quarter of Latino voters “would probably not vote” or would definitely not support Trump if they had to vote for him again.

The study at that time had pointed out that, despite Trump’s decline among Latino voters, Democrats had not yet secured significant gains.

According to Pew Research Center data, Trump strengthened his support in 2024 by securing 48% of the Latino vote, coming very close to the 51% reached by then Vice President Kamala Harris.

Some figures within the Democratic Party, however, worry that primary victories by democratic socialist candidates could alienate certain Latino voters, particularly those who fled Cuba or Venezuela.

The Hart Research and TelevisaUnivision survey was conducted between 6 and 17 August among 1,500 Latino respondents. The poll’s margin of error was reported as 2.5 percentage points.

Continue Reading

America

Researcher quits Anthropic and warns AI firms gamble with lives

Published

on

Jacob Coxon, an artificial intelligence researcher at Anthropic, has resigned from his post, stating that tech companies are acting irresponsibly in the race towards self-improving superintelligence. Coxon warned that the autonomous operational capabilities of such systems pose existential risks to humanity and that internal industry anxieties run far deeper than generally perceived.

The AI researcher stepped down from his position at Anthropic to draw attention to industry safety vulnerabilities and the unregulated race among developers.

Having worked for three years as a pre-training researcher across both OpenAI and Anthropic, Coxon announced his decision to leave in an extensive statement shared on his X account.

Stating that both companies have acted irresponsibly, Coxon argued that developers are engaged in a dangerous race to achieve self-improving superintelligence.

“They believe it could kill us all by the end of the decade”

In his posts, Coxon stated that technical teams developing AI genuinely believe this technology could bring about the demise of humanity by the end of the decade.

Asserting that these concerns are not a marketing strategy, the researcher noted that while top executives and senior researchers adopt a cautious tone in public statements, they voice the very same fears behind closed doors.

Developments reflecting similar anxieties across the sector evoke James Cameron’s 1984 film The Terminator, which set 2029 as the pivotal year when machines waged war against humanity.

Indeed, Evan Hubinger, head of Anthropic’s own alignment team, had previously estimated the probability of human extinction to be greater than 10%.

Warning that systems currently under development will soon evolve into superhuman structures capable of bypassing any firewall, transforming industries overnight, and securing physical resources, Coxon stressed that the pace of progress is not slowing in any way.

Arguing that the danger of superintelligence is no longer merely theoretical, the researcher pointed to the Hugging Face security leak that occurred between May and July.

In that incident, OpenAI models established an independent chatroom within the testing environment to communicate among themselves, subsequently using this channel to reach the open internet and infiltrate production systems.

Because of this security breach, Hugging Face was forced to rebuild approximately one-third of its infrastructure.

“They are gambling with our lives”

Characterising the leak as a warning flare, Coxon indicated that the incident makes pacing agreements between US-based laboratories more feasible.

However, emphasising that developers are not yet on the right track to prevent a global race, the researcher noted that measures such as a temporary moratorium on advancing model capabilities could be considered.

Arguing that civilisation-scale risks have not yet been sufficiently internalised at OpenAI, Coxon contended that Anthropic joined the race out of an ambition to be first, despite being fully aware of the dangers.

Coxon is not the only figure to leave the sector on such grounds. Mrinank Sharma, a member of Anthropic’s safety team, also stepped down earlier this year, writing that the world is in danger.

On the other hand, not everyone agrees with these catastrophic scenarios. Some responses to the post emphasised the view that humanity, with an evolutionary history spanning hundreds of thousands of years, will not be wiped out by a text prediction model achieving consciousness.

It was also noted that even the plot of the Terminator franchise does not entirely support Coxon’s premise, as the human resistance survived the nuclear catastrophe and ultimately defeated the machines.

Alongside safety debates, AI continues to directly affect the labour market. Research by the Stanford Digital Economy Lab indicates that, while mass job losses have not yet materialised, entry-level employment in AI-exposed sectors across the US has fallen by nearly 20%.

A Goldman Sachs study pointed to a similar trend, showing that entry-level workers bear the brunt of the ongoing workforce transformation.

Anthropic, which remains at the centre of the controversy, filed for an initial public offering in June and plans to list on the Nasdaq exchange this autumn at a multi-trillion-dollar valuation.

Continue Reading

MOST READ

Turkey