The Israeli cabinet is expected to meet today to approve a ceasefire and prisoner swap agreement in Gaza. Palestinian sources indicate that the agreement could be signed on or before Friday, 17 January.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is working to ensure the government remains stable, as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich opposes the deal, according to official Israeli state television KAN.

“If things move quickly, it is likely that the cabinet will meet this afternoon, followed by a government meeting where the deal will be approved,” Israeli officials told KAN.

Israeli Channel 12 television, citing Israeli sources, reported that the details of the prisoner release deal have been agreed upon, and a final response from Hamas is awaited. The news also highlighted that most government members support the agreement.

Reports noted that 18 ministers from the Likud party, led by Netanyahu, six from the Ultra-Orthodox Jewish Shas Party, two from the United Torah Judaism party led by Moshe Gafni, and two from the National Right party support the agreement.

On the other hand, three ministers from the Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, led by far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, and three ministers from the Religious Zionism party, led by far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, oppose the agreement.

KAN reported that Netanyahu met with Smotrich the previous day in an attempt to persuade him to support the deal.

Negotiations between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza have reportedly made significant progress. An official told Reuters that Qatar presented the parties with a draft final agreement today. The preceding meetings in Doha were attended by the heads of Israel’s Mossad and Shin Bet organizations, the head of Egyptian intelligence, the Prime Minister of Qatar, and Steve Witkoff, special envoy to US President-elect Donald Trump.

Critical 24 hours

The official stated that talks continued until early this morning and emphasized that the next 24 hours would be critical to reaching an agreement. Israel’s Kan radio reported that the parties had received the draft and that the Israeli delegation had briefed its leaders. However, neither Israel nor Hamas has confirmed a final agreement on the draft.

It is understood that the draft includes a ceasefire and the release of hostages. A senior Israeli official noted that if Hamas responds positively to the proposal, an agreement could be reached within a few days. A Palestinian official described the information from Doha as promising, adding that the differences between the parties were diminishing.

Pressure from Trump and Biden

Before taking office, Donald Trump announced that he would impose harsh sanctions if Hamas did not release the hostages. President Joe Biden, in the final days of his term, made intense efforts to reach an agreement before leaving office. In a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Sunday, Biden emphasized the need for a ceasefire and increased humanitarian aid.

Since the start of hostilities in Gaza in October 2023, Palestinian health officials report that more than 46,000 people have been killed, settlements have been largely destroyed, and the humanitarian crisis has deepened. While the parties have largely agreed on the mutual release of hostages and prisoners, disagreements remain over the terms of the agreement to end the war. Hamas demands Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel insists the war will end only with the elimination of Hamas.

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s hardline nationalist Finance Minister, criticized the proposed deal, calling it a “capitulation” and “a disaster for national security.”

The outcome of the talks is expected to be finalized in the coming days.

The Lebanese parliament elected Chief of Staff Joseph Aoun as president yesterday, marking a significant step in overcoming more than two years of political crisis. This election follows weeks after a fragile ceasefire agreement ended 14 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, occurring at a time when Lebanese leaders are seeking international assistance for reconstruction. Joseph Aoun was the preferred candidate of the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, two countries whose support Lebanon will rely on during the reconstruction process.

Hezbollah had initially supported Suleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement and an ally of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. However, Frangieh withdrew from the race on Wednesday and announced his support for Aoun, clearing the way for the latter’s election.

Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told the Associated Press that international pressure, combined with Hezbollah’s weakening due to its war with Israel and the diminished influence of its Syrian ally Assad, were key factors leading to yesterday’s outcome.

In the first round of voting, Hezbollah and the Amal Movement cast blank ballots, signaling that “he cannot be elected president without our approval.” Aoun was subsequently elected in the second round. Mohamed Raad, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, stated, “We postponed the vote to send a message that we are the guardians of Lebanon’s sovereignty and national reconciliation.”

One of Hezbollah and Amal Movement’s key demands during the election process was maintaining control over the finance ministry. An agreement addressing this demand was reportedly reached, particularly in negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Despite international pressure and its diminished military and political strength, Hezbollah demonstrated its decisive influence in the presidential election.

In his victory speech, Aoun proclaimed, “Today begins a new era in Lebanon’s history.” He committed to implementing the ceasefire agreement with Israel, which requires the withdrawal of both Hezbollah and Israeli forces from southern Lebanon. Aoun also pledged to work towards a national security strategy that aims to “dismantle the Israeli occupation and repel its aggression.” He emphasized the need for the Lebanese state to hold a monopoly on the right to bear arms, an apparent reference to Hezbollah’s weapons.

Sami Atallah, founding director of the Beirut-based think tank The Policy Initiative, told the Financial Times: “I don’t think [Hezbollah] could afford to torpedo the process, especially after the war and its consequences for reconstruction and challenges facing the Shia community. They felt compelled to compromise and accept a candidate.”

Joseph Aoun, 60, was educated in the U.S. and has established strong ties with Washington, which funds and trains the Lebanese army. This has earned him the moniker “America’s man.” However, some MPs criticized foreign influence in Lebanon’s internal affairs, with some even combining his name on ballots with those of the U.S. and Saudi ambassadors: “Joseph Amos bin Farhan.”

While Aoun’s election addresses the prolonged presidential vacuum, the next challenge lies in appointing a prime minister and forming a cabinet. The president’s powers are limited in Lebanon, but filling this role was essential before government formation could proceed.

The incoming government faces the daunting task of enforcing the ceasefire agreement, managing reconstruction after the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, and addressing Lebanon’s severe economic crisis. Now in its sixth year, the crisis has devastated the national currency, wiped out savings, and reduced state-owned electricity supply to a few hours daily. In 2022, Lebanese leaders secured a preliminary bailout agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but progress on the reforms required to finalize the deal has been limited.