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Trump Doctrine: ‘The purpose of the Greenland exit is to send a strong message to China’

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The repercussions of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to annex Greenland, an autonomous island of Denmark, without excluding the possibility of using military force, continue to unfold.

A report in the New York Post (NYP) emphasizes that Trump’s move raises the question, “Why?” and includes insights from a source close to Trump’s transition team.

Claiming that Greenland is becoming increasingly important for strategists in many countries, especially Washington, due to its location on vital shipping routes and the presence of key raw materials rarely found elsewhere, the NYP reported that the source said, “To send a strong and deliberate message to Beijing. Not just talk. It’s action. Make America ambitious again,” the source was quoted as saying.

The source also noted that the president-elect drew the first framework of the “Trump Doctrine.”

According to the Wilson Center, a foreign policy think tank, the U.S. is locked in a “three-cornered” struggle with Russia and China for the Arctic’s natural resources, such as lithium, cobalt, and graphite.

Alex Plitsas of the Atlantic Council said, “There are two main reasons [for annexing Greenland]. First, the large deposits of rare earth elements, which are essential for critical defense and electronics production. Second, Greenland has a legitimately large claim to the Arctic, which will give the United States a stronger position as competition for navigation and resources there heats up.”

U.S.-China-Russia rivalry in the Arctic

For years, the U.S. has been in a “quiet tug-of-war” with China and Russia over access to the Arctic and has been sending military icebreakers to explore the resource-rich island, the NYP reports.

The Arctic is thought to be abundant in rare earth minerals, which are used in everything from mobile phones to weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. and Western countries are mostly dependent on China for these minerals.

According to Plitsas, this dependence on Beijing “is not sustainable given geopolitical realities.” He argues, “There are other large deposits in places like Afghanistan, which are also unsustainable for various reasons.”

“With increasing demand for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and advanced electronics, the United States relies heavily on critical materials to spur innovation and maintain global economic competitiveness,” the Wilson Center wrote in its 2023 report.

Competition over the Arctic, on the other hand, has intensified in recent years due to climate change, which has led to the melting of glaciers that previously made it almost impossible to access resources. “Warming has led to greater freedom of navigation in the Arctic,” Plitsas recalls.

U.S. ‘icebreaker ship’ discomfort

But according to the NYP, the Americans have so far lagged behind their rivals, partly due to limited U.S. access to the region and a relatively small number of icebreakers.

This problem has long troubled some Republicans, including Mike Waltz, whom Trump appointed as national security adviser. In a 2017 post on X, Waltz wrote, “In the Arctic, where we will compete for natural resources, the Coast Guard needs more than one icebreaker! Russia has dozens!”

The Coast Guard currently has only two of the vital vessels, but Waltz recently promised to ask for more in the 119th Congress in response to a post on X calling for “a dozen more” icebreakers.

Additional icebreakers and the acquisition of Greenland are topics Trump has chosen to highlight as the U.S. builds more rare earth mineral processing plants as part of an effort to reduce its dependence on China.

The United States is home to only 1.3 percent of the world’s rare earth minerals, compared to 70 percent for China.

Greenland open to non-annexation options

Kuno Fencker, a member of Greenland’s parliament, told CNN on Tuesday that the island only gained full autonomy in 2009 and that since then, the regional government has been working to achieve sovereignty.

“We may have a lot of disagreements here about property, because we are trying to create a sovereign country as Greenland and we want to establish the state of Greenland,” Fencker said, adding that the regional government may be willing to work on a free association agreement with the United States.

The U.S. already has such agreements with Pacific island states such as Palau. Such agreements require Washington to provide financial assistance to the countries entering into the free relationship, as well as grant island citizens the right to work and live in the U.S. as “permanent residents.”

“The main [point] here is that Greenland [status] should be a monumental decision, what kind of state we want to be, and also who we should cooperate with, and our closest allies, which, you know, we are under the rule of Denmark,” Fencker said.

The new White House is open to other options

The source told NYP that Trump may be willing to discuss alternative arrangements with Greenland authorities other than full annexation.

“There is flexibility in discussing the best ways to strengthen America’s security, so I think it’s fair to say there is more than one option,” the source said.

The U.S. has long wanted to own Greenland. When it bought Alaska from Russia in 1867, it also considered bidding for the island in the North Atlantic.

Almost eighty years later, after the Second World War, the U.S. offered Greenland $100 million in gold bullion, which Denmark rejected.

But the offer led to a defense deal that gave the U.S. access to Thule Air Base, now Pituffik Spaceport, the northernmost outpost of the military, which was critical during the Cold War because of its proximity to Russia.

Diplomacy

Vance defends Iran nuclear deal and rebukes Israeli ministers over criticism

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US Vice President JD Vance on Thursday criticised Israeli officials for refusing to support Washington’s nuclear agreement with Iran, defending the newly signed memorandum of understanding and urging Israel to back the deal.

Vance accused members of the Israeli government of failing to appreciate the value of American support and defended the agreement during a press conference at the White House.

Referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as “Bibi,” Vance told reporters: “You’ve seen some people in Bibi’s cabinet attack the agreement and, in some respects, attack the President of the United States in a very personal way.” He stopped short of directly criticising Netanyahu himself.

“First of all, Trump is currently the only head of state in the world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel. And he is the head of state of the world’s superpower,” Vance said. “If I were in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I would not attack the only powerful ally I have left in the world.”

Vance noted that two-thirds of the munitions used in Israel’s defence over the past three months were manufactured in the United States and financed by American taxpayers. He said Israeli officials should reconsider the perception that the primary problem facing Israel is the US president and instead confront the realities of the situation.

The remarks were directed at Netanyahu’s coalition partners, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. Both have argued that the agreement poses a threat to Israel’s security and have called on Israel to disregard its provisions.

In an earlier interview with The New York Times, Vance said he found “the general panic in Israel a little strange,” arguing that concerns surrounding the agreement stemmed from distrust of the United States.

“It is obvious that broad segments of Israel’s political system and society are very sensitive about this agreement,” Vance said. “But I also think they have taken some misinformation about the agreement, amplified it and worked themselves into a kind of panic.”

Asked how he would respond to the ministers, Vance said: “I think my answer would be: What exactly is your proposal? You are a country of nine million people. You cannot solve every national security problem you have by killing people.”

Addressing the situation in Lebanon, Vance said hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah could continue for some time, but stressed that all parties must adhere to their commitments under the agreement. Reiterating expectations that Hezbollah halt rocket and drone attacks, he also said Israel should avoid acting without restraint in Lebanon.

Vance said the US administration expected a comprehensive ceasefire across all fronts, including Lebanon, Hezbollah and Israel. While recognising Israel’s right to self-defence, he said attacks on areas of Beirut populated by civilians were unacceptable.

“One thing that has frustrated the President at times is that it seems we are on the verge of a major breakthrough under the agreement, and then suddenly there is a large explosion in a civilian area of Beirut and many people with nothing to do with Hezbollah are killed,” Vance said. “That is unacceptable.”

Vance also addressed criticism concerning sanctions relief and funding provisions for Iran, two of the most controversial elements of the memorandum.

He said the United States had not fully lifted its blockade of Iran but had merely allowed certain transit activities in line with obligations under the early stages of the agreement. Vance added that Iran’s economy remained in severe decline.

Arguing that Iran’s industrial infrastructure had suffered extensive damage over the past three months, Vance said limited oil sales would not be sufficient to revive the Iranian economy.

He also said the pragmatic faction within Iran had prevailed in internal debates and asserted that Iran’s missile programme and nuclear facilities had been largely neutralised, leaving the situation at a level acceptable to the United States.

Israeli objections to the agreement

Meanwhile, Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Yechiel Leiter, voiced cautious opposition to what he described as a US willingness to allow Iran to retain some of its ballistic missiles.

Describing Iranian officials as “murderous thugs,” Leiter said Israel remained concerned that Tehran would use such missiles against its neighbours.

Leiter also argued that references to Lebanon in the memorandum were designed to protect Hezbollah. He said Israel could make no compromises on border security and would not tolerate the continued existence of the group’s military presence.

Ben Gvir responded directly to Vance’s criticism in a social media post, calling on the United States to confront Iran with the same determination it showed in fighting Nazi Germany during World War Two.

In his New York Times interview, Vance had referred specifically to “people like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich” when discussing critics of the agreement, asking: “What exactly is your proposal?”

Writing in English on X, Ben Gvir addressed Vance directly, stating: “The proposal is this: Fight the Nazis of the 21st century the way the US fought the Nazis of the 20th century.”

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China’s tariff cuts for Africa boost trade and support wider yuan adoption

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China’s decision to eliminate tariffs on imports from most African countries, combined with rapidly expanding trade flows, appears set to boost the use of the yuan across the continent, supporting Beijing’s broader objective of building alternatives to the Western financial system.

Customs data show that China-Africa trade grew by approximately 18% last year. The removal of tariffs on imports from 53 African countries in May is expected to further increase trade flows and encourage payments denominated in yuan.

Research by the International Monetary Fund indicates that yuan usage tends to rise alongside growing trade ties with China. On Wednesday, Beijing announced new measures aimed at promoting the global use of its currency.

From Nigerian cattle bone pellets and Kenyan avocado oil to South African apples, Chinese ports are receiving greater volumes of African cargo following the tariff cuts. The trend is increasing demand for payments and currency exchanges between the yuan and local African currencies.

Although reliable data on yuan usage in Africa remain limited, adoption is being supported by expanding trade with China, new payment platforms and efforts by some countries to shift debt obligations into lower-cost currencies.

Birju Sanghrajka, chief executive of Standard Chartered Kenya, said yuan transactions were increasing but added that there were still few signs that the currency was displacing the dollar.

“We see it as complementary,” Sanghrajka said.

South Africa-based Standard Bank became the first African commercial bank to connect to China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in November and processed $500 million in transactions during its first four months on the network.

“The transactions we have seen were mainly driven by import and export activities between China and Africa,” said Ives Yang, head of transaction banking sales at Standard Bank CIB.

“We are working to expand CIPS to more countries,” he added.

Beijing says the tariff exemptions are intended to support African exports.

“In an environment where unilateralism and protectionism are creating difficulties and challenges for African countries, China is leveraging the advantages of its enormous market,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman He Yadong said.

Trade flow perspective

Bankers say the shift toward the yuan reflects growing trade volumes rather than a direct challenge to the dominance of the US dollar.

Standard Chartered Kenya has begun issuing yuan-denominated letters of credit. According to Sanghrajka, this allows Kenyan clients to obtain discounts by avoiding conversion costs associated with the dollar.

China and several other countries, including Russia, have promoted payment channels that bypass the dollar. The trend has drawn warnings from US President Donald Trump against abandoning the US currency.

“Part of what we are seeing globally today concerns how the dominance of the dollar can be reduced,” said Muda Yusuf, chief executive of Nigeria’s Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, adding that China is actively promoting yuan-based payment systems.

“When you export to them, you receive your payment in yuan,” Yusuf said.

Reducing foreign exchange risk

According to the African Export-Import Bank, which signed an agreement last year to connect to CIPS, China now accounts for 20% of Africa’s external trade, up from 5% two decades ago.

Other institutions are also seeking to capitalize on the trend.

Togo-based Ecobank, which operates in 34 African countries, and the Bank of China are working to launch a payment product this year that will facilitate transactions between the yuan and local African currencies.

“China is building its own payment and settlement rails that can make transactions almost instantaneous,” said Ecobank Chief Executive Jeremy Awori.

The development is welcome news for investors such as Qu Ming, a Chinese national who owns Kenya-based Sanmark Limited. Moving from dollar-denominated transactions to yuan payments could benefit the avocado oil producer, which employs 50 people.

“This will help us because of the exchange rate,” Qu said, adding that borrowing costs could also decline because yuan interest rates are lower.

China’s position as the largest bilateral creditor to countries including Senegal, Ethiopia and Kenya is also contributing to wider yuan adoption across Africa.

Last year, Kenya converted three Chinese-financed railway construction loans from dollars into yuan, reducing annual interest costs by approximately $215 million. Zambia has announced that from late 2025 it will begin accepting mining royalties and taxes from Chinese companies in yuan to strengthen its reserves and help service debt owed to China.

Avocado exports to China

According to Chinese government officials, the country’s yuan-denominated imports and exports rose 14% year-on-year in April to 4.38 trillion yuan ($647 billion). However, authorities did not provide a separate figure for Africa.

The trend is also visible in Kenya. Avocado exports to China’s vast consumer market have increased from 10 to 20 containers per week in 2022 to around 200 containers today. Volumes are expected to reach 1,000 containers by 2030, putting China on par with Europe, which has long been Kenya’s largest export market.

Speaking at a packing facility just outside Nairobi, Sunripe Managing Director Thiku Shah said China could surpass Europe between 2030 and 2035. He also said a shift by Kenya toward yuan-denominated financing could accelerate the currency’s use in trade.

“If we can invoice in yuan, if banks can accept payment in yuan, and if we can find a buyer for the yuan we hold, that would be perfect,” Shah said.

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EU drafts emergency trade support package for Armenia to counter Russian import bans

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The European Union is preparing emergency trade measures to support the Armenian economy following a series of import restrictions imposed by Russia.

The European Commission is working on a trade support program for Armenia to offset the impact of the Russian-imposed restrictions, according to a Financial Times report citing sources familiar with the matter.

Under the planned measures, tariffs on Armenian exports to the EU would be reduced. The framework, which covers approximately 20 product categories, is estimated to have an annual volume of around €420 million.

Sources indicated that the proposal could be formally presented in the coming weeks.

“The European Commission will propose autonomous trade measures to help more Armenian businesses access new market opportunities in the EU and to support the most affected sectors of the country’s economy,” European Commission Spokesperson Olof Gill said.

However, sources noted that the plan could encounter certain obstacles. Specifically, the export of Armenian brandy may trigger disputes with French producers.

Furthermore, Armenia’s landlocked geography complicates the transportation of perishable goods to European markets.

In late May, Russia banned the import of floral products from Armenia. The Russian Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision (Rosselkhoznadzor) also halted the import and domestic distribution of all batches of Jermuk mineral water, citing exceedances of permitted levels of ions, chlorides, and sulfates.

The Russian restrictions also targeted brandies and wines from three Armenian producers, which Moscow alleged failed to meet mandatory standards. Additionally, limits were placed on imports of fresh tomatoes, cucumbers, greens, and strawberries.

Armenia’s Food Safety Inspection Body subsequently announced that it was conducting investigations to determine the causes of the restrictions and resolve the issue.

Following these developments, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated that the government was prepared to compensate affected farmers for their losses.

In early June, temporary restrictions on the import of stone fruits and grapes from Armenia came into effect. Cherries, sour cherries, apricots, plums, peaches, and nectarines were included in the ban.

A temporary ban on certification procedures for live fish destined for export to Russia was also put into effect.

Armenian Economy Minister Gevorg Papoyan announced on June 11 that Yerevan had applied to the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) regarding the barriers encountered in exporting goods to Russia.

Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) while simultaneously pursuing closer integration with the European Union.

Following the imposition of the Russian restrictions, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU was preparing support for Yerevan in response to “economic pressure,” which includes financial assistance exceeding €50 million.

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