Europe
Poland’s EU Presidency Begins: ‘Security and Defence’
Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels
Poland assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second time officially on January 3, 2025, with a very political agenda. Over the course of its six-month term, Warsaw plans to host more than 300 official meetings across 24 cities, concluding on June 30. With an ambitious program centered on security, the presidency seeks to address escalating geopolitical challenges while shaping the EU’s policy direction.
The Polish presidency has prioritized strengthening European security in multiple dimensions, including external, internal, informational, economic, energy, food, and health sectors. This leadership tenure is expected to see significant efforts to bolster the EU’s resilience against current global tensions. Assistant Professor at the University of Wroclaw and Senior Analyst in the institute of Central Europe Jakub Bornio talked to Harici about Poland’s EU Presidency and what it means for regional and global politics.
A Relief After Hungary’s Controversial Term
Poland’s Council Presidency arrives at a pivotal moment for the EU, following Hungary’s controversial tenure, characterized by the Eurosceptic approach of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his controversial visits. EU leaders are now expressing relief as they transition to working with Poland under Donald Tusk, a committed pro-NATO and pro-EU leader.
The Polish Presidency’s program outlines its priorities, stating: “In view of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and other security threats, the work of the Foreign Affairs Council in the first half of 2025 will focus on maximizing support for Ukraine at political, military, and economic levels, maintaining current policies towards Russia and Belarus, and strengthening the security and resilience of the EU and its partners.”
It further emphasizes a commitment to transatlantic cooperation: “The Presidency will support the deepening of transatlantic relations. In particular, we are committed to EU-US coordination in the face of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and dialogue on global issues, including the Eastern Neighbourhood, China and the Indo-Pacific region, energy policy, new technologies, and the Connectivity Agenda.”
With these priorities, Poland’s leadership aims to reaffirm the EU’s unified stance on critical geopolitical challenges. However, questions remain about how Poland’s positions on Ukraine and NATO will be affected after the inauguration of elected President Donald Trump.
Poland Excludes Hungary’s Ambassador Amid Diplomatic Tensions
Poland barred Hungary’s ambassador from the opening gala of its EU presidency, citing a diplomatic dispute over former Polish deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski, who fled corruption charges in Poland and was granted political asylum by Hungary in December. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called the move “pathetic and childish,” escalating tensions between the nations.
Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski deemed Hungary’s decision to grant asylum a “hostile act” and informed Hungarian Ambassador István Íjgyártó he was not welcome at the January 3 gala, hosted by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and European Council President Antonio Costa.
“Europe Must Move Beyond Survival to a Political Offensive,” Said Tusk
Incumbent Prime Minister of Poland and former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, emphasized on December 4, 2024, that the European Union must shift from a state of “survival” to a “political offensive.” Reflecting on the 13 years since Poland’s last presidency, Tusk underscored the importance of the current timing and addressed several non-routine priorities, including military, economic, energy, and health security, as well as the need to combat disinformation.
“Breakthroughs are perhaps awaiting us regarding war and peace east of our border,” Tusk said, calling for a “profound correction” of European priorities.
“Poland’s Presidency Prioritizes Security and Sanctions”
Poland’s EU Council Presidency will emphasize security and defense, continuing its longstanding approach since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “Poland’s priority will be to maintain and, to some extent, extend sanctions on Russia,” explains Jakub Bornio, Assistant Professor at the University of Wrocław and Senior Analyst at the Institute of Central Europe. Borneo said Poland will also focus on securing financial assistance for EU member states providing military support to Ukraine, leveraging the European Peace Facility.
However, Hungary’s veto on critical financial measures remains a challenge. “Without strong signals from the US, I’m not sure whether it will be quite easy for Poland to convince Hungary to ease its stance,” Bornio warns. Another key focus will be advocating for the exclusion of defense spending from EU budget deficit calculations, a necessity given Poland’s planned allocation of 4.7% of its GDP to defense by 2025.
Bornio also highlights broader security concerns: “Poland’s priorities include fighting illegal migration and the weaponization of migration, as well as addressing hybrid threats orchestrated by Belarus and Russia.” Additionally, Poland will push for NATO member states to allocate at least 3% of their GDP to military spending, requiring EU cooperation on financial rules.
“Both Poland and the U.S. depend on each other”
“I don’t see major changes coming, at least when it comes to security in the region. Both Poland and the U.S. depend on each other,” says Jakub Bornio, considering the re-election of Trump. While acknowledging Poland’s status as a junior partner in this alliance, he highlights that the country still possesses assets and capabilities that the U.S. values. As a result, U.S.-Polish relations are expected to remain strong in security matters.
However, Bornio foresees potential strains in personal relationships. “It is quite likely that these personal relations will be kind of harsh, and it may impact Poland’s ability to affect its relations with the U.S. It is not a secret that there are some animosities between the Polish prime minister’s camp and Trump’s camp,” he notes. This tension could also spill over into Poland’s ability to navigate U.S.-Germany relations, which Bornio predicts will be turbulent under Trump’s second administration.
Despite these challenges, Bornio emphasizes Poland’s commitment to maintaining strong ties with the U.S. “What we learned from our previous administration of Trump is that he is also going to favor bilateral ties rather than multilateral platforms,” he concludes.
“Polish Elections Will Not Change Security or EU Commitment”
“It will not change much when it comes to foreign and security policy,” Jakub Bornio says when discussing the upcoming Polish elections in 2025. Both the Civic Coalition and the Law and Justice Party have strong commitments to security, defense, and Poland’s continued EU membership.
“Both candidates believe that Poland should be a member of the EU and that security should be prioritized,” he adds, noting a consensus on these key issues.
However, Bornio points to potential challenges: “There are big hopes in the Law and Justice camp, currently in opposition, that their candidate will be supported somehow by Trump and his cabinet.” He also highlights the tension between the current Polish elites and Trump’s administration.
“Poland Won’t Prioritize Türkiye During This Term”
Türkiye is mentioned in two sections of the Polish Presidency’s program. Under the Foreign Affairs Council, the document highlights efforts to “keep the Western Balkans and Turkey in the orbit of close cooperation with the EU under the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including by maintaining an ongoing political dialogue.” Additionally, under the General Affairs Council’s enlargement paragraph, the Polish Presidency commits to maintaining a “constructive dialogue with Turkey, taking into account its status as a candidate country and in line with European Council conclusions.”
Jakub Bornio discussed Poland’s approach to EU enlargement, noting that while Poland has long advocated for EU expansion, “I don’t see EU-Türkiye relations changing much in this half year.” Poland will focus on strengthening its ties with the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine. “Especially when it comes to Western Balkan states, association with the EU is quite possible and will be emphasized by the Polish presidency,” Bornio adds, while emphasizing that no significant changes are expected in the short term. He also predicts that the EU will play a crucial role in supporting Moldova and aims for a more balanced approach to Georgia.
Bornio also highlighted Poland’s cautious stance on Türkiye. He explained that Poland has supported Türkiye’s NATO presence in the Eastern Flank, where there is only a small unit deployed so far. However, he mentioned that hopes for stronger cooperation in security matters exemplified by the Bayraktar deals have not materialized and the weaponization of migration, a concern linked to Türkiye’s actions, has led to a cooler reception in Warsaw. “This was not very welcomed by Warsaw, so I don’t think Poland – regardless of its declarations, will prioritize Türkiye during this term.”
Trio Presidency System since Lisbon Treaty
The presidency of the Council of the EU rotates every six months among the member states. Each country that holds the presidency chairs meetings, helping to manage the legislative process. The presidency system also operates in “trios,” where three consecutive member states collaborate closely over an 18-month period to set long-term goals and prepare a common agenda. Although the Council Presidency does not possess any executive power, it is still important in the context of leadership and agenda-setting.
This system, introduced by the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, allows each country to focus on specific priorities within the broader context. The current trio includes Poland, Denmark, and Cyprus. Each presidency is tasked with driving forward EU legislation, ensuring smooth operations in the Council, and representing the Council in its relations with other EU institutions, including the European Commission and Parliament.
Europe
China’s critical mineral restrictions challenge EU defence expansion plans
The European Union’s plans to expand its defence capabilities are being hindered by China’s export controls and sales restrictions on critical raw materials.
In response, EU leaders are urging member states to accelerate efforts to diversify supply chains.
According to Nikkei Asia, the European Commission announced last week that it would propose new legislation requiring companies across the bloc to broaden their supplier base in an effort to address economic imbalances, although it did not explicitly name China.
The war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over Washington’s security guarantees have pushed European governments to increase military spending and defence production.
At the same time, according to a report published in May by Joris Teer, a policy analyst at the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), China accounts for at least 70% of global mining or refining activity in 17 of the 34 materials classified as critical by the EU. Eight of those 34 materials are currently subject to Chinese export controls.
“China is undermining Europe’s rearmament efforts,” Teer wrote. “Simply by activating this tool, China has already increased its leverage and demonstrated both the capability and willingness to restrict supply whenever it chooses.”
The Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe also warned that geopolitical developments and intensifying global competition for critical raw materials are further underscoring the need to strengthen European supply chains.
The organisation represents more than 4,000 companies, including Britain’s BAE Systems, France’s Thales and Germany’s Rheinmetall.
European defence manufacturers are pursuing a range of strategies, including vertical integration, recycling, diversification and stockpiling.
Rheinmetall told Nikkei Asia that it has “no dependencies” and is “well prepared” regarding critical minerals.
A company spokesperson said: “Rheinmetall has stockpiled key raw materials sufficient for several years. We have also implemented IT systems that allow us to centrally monitor and precisely manage raw material consumption across the entire group.”
Analysts, however, caution that stockpiling alone will not be sufficient. Maria Shagina, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “Stockpiling serves as an important buffer against sudden disruptions, but on its own it is unlikely to mitigate structural damage over the long term.”
Shagina added that replacing the volume and diversity of critical minerals controlled by Beijing with alternative sources would take years.
In 2024, the EU enacted the European Critical Raw Materials Act, aimed at rebuilding domestic supply chains for such minerals.
The legislation sets 2030 targets for domestic extraction, processing and recycling while limiting dependence on any single third-country supplier to 65%.
A €3 billion ($3.5 billion) fund was established last year to accelerate strategic projects.
Nevertheless, the European Court of Auditors has noted that the 2030 targets are not legally binding and that the EU remains far from achieving them.
Industry groups argue that policy inconsistencies could further slow progress.
The Cobalt Institute, which represents a sector vital to jet engines, advanced batteries and defence alloys, warned that proposed EU chemicals regulations risk undermining the industry.
“Europe has one foot in and one foot out,” said Michael Blakeney, head of government and public affairs at the London-based institute. “It says the right things, but its actions are inconsistent.”
Europe’s efforts are unfolding alongside a more aggressive US strategy to secure critical mineral supply chains.
Shagina said:
“The US is investing more capital to secure and expand capacity, taking greater financial risks and, in some cases, acquiring equity stakes. Europe, by contrast, is generally more cautious, which places it at a relative disadvantage in the competition for critical minerals.”
In April, the EU signed an agreement with the United States to coordinate supplies of critical minerals. Although some member states initially resisted over concerns that the deal could weaken the bloc’s strategic autonomy, they authorised the Commission in early June to join the US-led “Pax Silica” initiative, which coordinates investment and export-control policies.
Teer urged Europe to use ongoing US-EU-Japan negotiations as the nucleus of a broader coalition aimed at making critical mineral production outside China financially viable through state support, minimum-price mechanisms and supply rules.
“Particularly important are countries that either produce raw materials or possess significant mineral deposits, such as Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Brazil and Indonesia, as well as countries like India with large pools of skilled labour,” he said.
Teer also argued that the EU should activate its Anti-Coercion Instrument, which allows the bloc to impose tariffs and restrictions in response to economic pressure on countries outside the union, in order to deter China from introducing further restrictions.
A European Commission spokesperson said the bloc had “long been aware of the risks associated with the EU’s dependence on critical raw materials.”
“The objective is clear: to anticipate disruptions early and reduce the EU’s vulnerabilities while strengthening our industrial and defence capacities,” the spokesperson said.
Europe
Four European countries move to make citizenship harder to obtain
European countries are increasingly tightening their citizenship rules. Most recently, the Norwegian government has drafted legislation that would raise the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from three years to seven.
The proposed amendments to the citizenship law were presented by the Ministry of Labour and Social Inclusion.
Under the draft legislation, stateless individuals born in Norway, as well as those who arrived in the country as children, would be required to reside in Norway for at least five years before becoming eligible for citizenship.
The government also plans to increase residency requirements for foreign nationals who are married to or cohabiting with Norwegian citizens.
Language requirements are set to become more demanding as well. The proposal would raise the required level of spoken Norwegian proficiency from A2 to B1. The new rules would apply to applicants aged between 18 and 67.
Commenting on the changes, Minister of Labour and Social Inclusion Kjersti Stenseng said: “Obtaining and holding Norwegian citizenship should be a privilege.”
The government argues that simplifying administrative procedures while simultaneously tightening eligibility criteria will help reduce the country’s large backlog of pending applications and shorten processing times.
Norway is the latest European country to announce revisions to its citizenship rules.
In Finland, the minimum residency requirement for citizenship was increased from five years to eight years on October 1, 2024.
The country also plans to introduce a mandatory citizenship test for applicants aged between 18 and 64 from the beginning of 2027.
Finnish Interior Minister Mari Rantanen said: “The introduction of a citizenship test is the final component of a comprehensive reform aimed at making citizenship requirements more stringent.”
Sweden has also approved a similar reform. Beginning in June 2026, the standard residency requirement for citizenship will increase from five years to eight years. Authorities are also introducing a financial self-sufficiency requirement for applicants and expanding the scope of security screenings.
Explaining the rationale behind the changes, Migration Minister Johan Forssell said: “It was possible to become a citizen after living in the country for five years without knowing a single word of Swedish, learning anything about Swedish society, or even having one’s own source of income.”
The most far-reaching changes have been implemented in Portugal. Portuguese President Antonio Jose Seguro has signed legislation raising the minimum residency requirement for citizenship from five years to 10 years.
For citizens of the European Union and the Community of Portuguese Language Countries, the requirement has been set at seven years.
The residency period will now be calculated from the date a residence permit is granted rather than from the date a citizenship application is submitted. The new rules will also affect the children of immigrants.
Previously, children could obtain citizenship one year after birth if their parents held residence permits. Under the new rules, at least one parent must have legally resided in the country for a minimum of five years.
The law also introduces a mandatory examination covering Portuguese history, culture, values and social structures.
Migration policies are tightening across the European Union as well. On June 17, the European Parliament approved legislation allowing irregular migrants whose asylum applications have been rejected but who cannot be returned to their countries of origin to be deported to third countries.
The new EU rules permit the establishment of migrant detention centres outside the bloc’s borders. African countries are reportedly among the options being discussed for such facilities.
Europe
SpaceX warns EU satellite spectrum plan could disrupt connectivity in Ukraine
SpaceX has sharply criticised a European Union plan to restrict access to satellite spectrum, arguing that the proposal risks degrading connectivity in Ukraine and disrupting emergency communications services.
In a document shared with European officials and reviewed by the Financial Times, SpaceX warned:
“This proposal significantly increases the likelihood that Europeans will be deprived of direct-to-device satellite services, or that new European operations will create global interference issues, including for emergency services such as those operating in Ukraine.”
In a proposal unveiled in May, the EU recommended reserving part of the spectrum band used for direct satellite-to-smartphone connectivity for European operators, thereby limiting the frequencies available to US and Chinese providers.
The 2 GHz frequency band in question is currently used by two US companies, Viasat and EchoStar.
SpaceX argued that the EU plan prioritises “an operator’s country of establishment over economic, technical and regulatory realities.”
When the proposal was announced, EU technology chief Henna Virkkunen defended the move, saying the bloc wanted to “increase European capacity in this sector.” She added that other parts of the frequency band would remain open to international operators, arguing that prioritising European providers was justified.
Other participants involved in discussions over the proposal said some EU officials were specifically seeking to limit Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite network.
Europe’s initiative follows a warning from Washington. In March, the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) cautioned that it could take retaliatory measures if the EU chose to favour European satellite operators over alternatives such as Starlink.
At the time, FCC Chairman Brendan Carr told the Financial Times: “Some of the discussions in Europe regarding satellite sovereignty concern us. If Europe decides to move down that path, then, as you know, we will have to consider reciprocal measures.”
The European Commission’s proposal has not yet entered formal negotiations with EU member states or the European Parliament.
A source close to SpaceX said the company remained hopeful of influencing the outcome of the process, given concerns raised by both businesses and several European governments.
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