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Poland’s EU Presidency Begins: ‘Security and Defence’

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Ahmetcan Uzlaşık, Brussels

Poland assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union for the second time officially on January 3, 2025, with a very political agenda. Over the course of its six-month term, Warsaw plans to host more than 300 official meetings across 24 cities, concluding on June 30. With an ambitious program centered on security, the presidency seeks to address escalating geopolitical challenges while shaping the EU’s policy direction. 

The Polish presidency has prioritized strengthening European security in multiple dimensions, including external, internal, informational, economic, energy, food, and health sectors. This leadership tenure is expected to see significant efforts to bolster the EU’s resilience against current global tensions. Assistant Professor at the University of Wroclaw and Senior Analyst in the institute of Central Europe Jakub Bornio talked to Harici about Poland’s EU Presidency and what it means for regional and global politics. 

A Relief After Hungary’s Controversial Term

Poland’s Council Presidency arrives at a pivotal moment for the EU, following Hungary’s controversial tenure, characterized by the Eurosceptic approach of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his controversial visits. EU leaders are now expressing relief as they transition to working with Poland under Donald Tusk, a committed pro-NATO and pro-EU leader. 

The Polish Presidency’s program outlines its priorities, stating: “In view of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and other security threats, the work of the Foreign Affairs Council in the first half of 2025 will focus on maximizing support for Ukraine at political, military, and economic levels, maintaining current policies towards Russia and Belarus, and strengthening the security and resilience of the EU and its partners.”

It further emphasizes a commitment to transatlantic cooperation: “The Presidency will support the deepening of transatlantic relations. In particular, we are committed to EU-US coordination in the face of Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine and dialogue on global issues, including the Eastern Neighbourhood, China and the Indo-Pacific region, energy policy, new technologies, and the Connectivity Agenda.”

With these priorities, Poland’s leadership aims to reaffirm the EU’s unified stance on critical geopolitical challenges. However, questions remain about how Poland’s positions on Ukraine and NATO will be affected after the inauguration of elected President Donald Trump.

Poland Excludes Hungary’s Ambassador Amid Diplomatic Tensions

Poland barred Hungary’s ambassador from the opening gala of its EU presidency, citing a diplomatic dispute over former Polish deputy justice minister Marcin Romanowski, who fled corruption charges in Poland and was granted political asylum by Hungary in December. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó called the move “pathetic and childish,” escalating tensions between the nations.

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski deemed Hungary’s decision to grant asylum a “hostile act” and informed Hungarian Ambassador István Íjgyártó he was not welcome at the January 3 gala, hosted by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and European Council President Antonio Costa.

“Europe Must Move Beyond Survival to a Political Offensive,” Said Tusk

Incumbent Prime Minister of Poland and former President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, emphasized on December 4, 2024, that the European Union must shift from a state of “survival” to a “political offensive.” Reflecting on the 13 years since Poland’s last presidency, Tusk underscored the importance of the current timing and addressed several non-routine priorities, including military, economic, energy, and health security, as well as the need to combat disinformation. 

“Breakthroughs are perhaps awaiting us regarding war and peace east of our border,” Tusk said, calling for a “profound correction” of European priorities.

“Poland’s Presidency Prioritizes Security and Sanctions”

Poland’s EU Council Presidency will emphasize security and defense, continuing its longstanding approach since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. “Poland’s priority will be to maintain and, to some extent, extend sanctions on Russia,” explains Jakub Bornio, Assistant Professor at the University of Wrocław and Senior Analyst at the Institute of Central Europe. Borneo said Poland will also focus on securing financial assistance for EU member states providing military support to Ukraine, leveraging the European Peace Facility.

However, Hungary’s veto on critical financial measures remains a challenge. “Without strong signals from the US, I’m not sure whether it will be quite easy for Poland to convince Hungary to ease its stance,” Bornio warns. Another key focus will be advocating for the exclusion of defense spending from EU budget deficit calculations, a necessity given Poland’s planned allocation of 4.7% of its GDP to defense by 2025.

Bornio also highlights broader security concerns: “Poland’s priorities include fighting illegal migration and the weaponization of migration, as well as addressing hybrid threats orchestrated by Belarus and Russia.” Additionally, Poland will push for NATO member states to allocate at least 3% of their GDP to military spending, requiring EU cooperation on financial rules.

“Both Poland and the U.S. depend on each other”

“I don’t see major changes coming, at least when it comes to security in the region. Both Poland and the U.S. depend on each other,” says Jakub Bornio, considering the re-election of Trump. While acknowledging Poland’s status as a junior partner in this alliance, he highlights that the country still possesses assets and capabilities that the U.S. values. As a result, U.S.-Polish relations are expected to remain strong in security matters.

However, Bornio foresees potential strains in personal relationships. “It is quite likely that these personal relations will be kind of harsh, and it may impact Poland’s ability to affect its relations with the U.S. It is not a secret that there are some animosities between the Polish prime minister’s camp and Trump’s camp,” he notes. This tension could also spill over into Poland’s ability to navigate U.S.-Germany relations, which Bornio predicts will be turbulent under Trump’s second administration.

Despite these challenges, Bornio emphasizes Poland’s commitment to maintaining strong ties with the U.S. “What we learned from our previous administration of Trump is that he is also going to favor bilateral ties rather than multilateral platforms,” he concludes.

“Polish Elections Will Not Change Security or EU Commitment”

“It will not change much when it comes to foreign and security policy,” Jakub Bornio says when discussing the upcoming Polish elections in 2025. Both the Civic Coalition and the Law and Justice Party have strong commitments to security, defense, and Poland’s continued EU membership.

“Both candidates believe that Poland should be a member of the EU and that security should be prioritized,” he adds, noting a consensus on these key issues.

However, Bornio points to potential challenges: “There are big hopes in the Law and Justice camp, currently in opposition, that their candidate will be supported somehow by Trump and his cabinet.” He also highlights the tension between the current Polish elites and Trump’s administration.

“Poland Won’t Prioritize Türkiye During This Term”

Türkiye is mentioned in two sections of the Polish Presidency’s program. Under the Foreign Affairs Council, the document highlights efforts to “keep the Western Balkans and Turkey in the orbit of close cooperation with the EU under the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including by maintaining an ongoing political dialogue.” Additionally, under the General Affairs Council’s enlargement paragraph, the Polish Presidency commits to maintaining a “constructive dialogue with Turkey, taking into account its status as a candidate country and in line with European Council conclusions.”

Jakub Bornio discussed Poland’s approach to EU enlargement, noting that while Poland has long advocated for EU expansion, “I don’t see EU-Türkiye relations changing much in this half year.” Poland will focus on strengthening its ties with the Western Balkans, Moldova, and Ukraine. “Especially when it comes to Western Balkan states, association with the EU is quite possible and will be emphasized by the Polish presidency,” Bornio adds, while emphasizing that no significant changes are expected in the short term. He also predicts that the EU will play a crucial role in supporting Moldova and aims for a more balanced approach to Georgia.

Bornio also highlighted Poland’s cautious stance on Türkiye. He explained that Poland has supported Türkiye’s NATO presence in the Eastern Flank, where there is only a small unit deployed so far. However, he mentioned that hopes for stronger cooperation in security matters exemplified by the Bayraktar deals have not materialized and the weaponization of migration, a concern linked to Türkiye’s actions, has led to a cooler reception in Warsaw. “This was not very welcomed by Warsaw, so I don’t think Poland – regardless of its declarations, will prioritize Türkiye during this term.”

Trio Presidency System since Lisbon Treaty

The presidency of the Council of the EU rotates every six months among the member states. Each country that holds the presidency chairs meetings, helping to manage the legislative process. The presidency system also operates in “trios,” where three consecutive member states collaborate closely over an 18-month period to set long-term goals and prepare a common agenda. Although the Council Presidency does not possess any executive power, it is still important in the context of leadership and agenda-setting.

This system, introduced by the Lisbon Treaty in 2009, allows each country to focus on specific priorities within the broader context. The current trio includes Poland, Denmark, and Cyprus. Each presidency is tasked with driving forward EU legislation, ensuring smooth operations in the Council, and representing the Council in its relations with other EU institutions, including the European Commission and Parliament. 

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Fico accuses Merz of blackmail over threat to veto EU budget

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Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has hit back after German Chancellor Friedrich Merz threatened to veto the EU budget unless funding for Ukraine is secured.

Merz said he would block the EU’s seven-year budget if no agreement is reached on financial assistance for Ukraine.

The chancellor’s intervention has angered Central European leaders who are net beneficiaries of EU funds but do not want to take part in the next round of funding to support Ukraine’s war effort.

“What the chancellor is doing is typical blackmail, and I will not bow to it,” Fico told reporters in Bratislava.

Fico spoke alongside his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, whose government has refused to participate in a future loan to Ukraine.

“I do not know why he said this,” Babiš said, referring to Merz’s stance.

Merz wants EU leaders to discuss Ukraine’s financing needs at a summit in Dublin on Friday.

In a letter to European Council President António Costa, who will chair the meeting, obtained by The Guardian, Merz wrote:

“We must maintain our support for Ukraine in its struggle to defend itself. This is our shared vital interest. Yet bilateral aid provided to Ukraine is distributed unevenly, with the burden shouldered mostly by only a few member states.”

The EU agreed last year to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, intended to cover two-thirds of its military and civilian spending for 2026 and 2027.

Since then, however, Russia’s relentless bombardment has placed a heavier financial burden on Kyiv, prompting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to ask for €70 billion to plug the budget deficit.

The EU has endorsed Zelenskyy’s figures and pledged to find €45 billion. Ukraine’s other allies, such as Britain and Canada, are expected to cover the rest.

Last year, Merz launched an initiative to tap €210 billion in frozen Russian state assets held in the EU, but the plan fell through due to opposition led by Belgium, which holds most of the funds in Brussels.

The €90 billion loan was the backup plan. Having opted out of that loan, Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia indicated that they would not take part in the next round either.

Bulgaria joined these three member states following the election of Prime Minister Rumen Radev last April.

The question of funding for Ukraine is now spilling over into the fraught negotiations on the 2028-34 EU budget.

Germany, the largest net contributor, wants substantial cuts to the proposed budget and opposes the EU providing generous funding to member states that refuse to contribute to Ukraine’s financial needs.

Merz states in his letter that a “collective commitment without exceptions” is a “fundamental prerequisite” for closing Ukraine’s financing gap and for “discussing other matters, particularly those with financial implications.”

He also notes that, in the context of the EU’s next seven-year budget, known as the Multiannual Financial Framework, all member states must contribute to a “robust” financial perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards.

A German government official said:

“For the Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) to be successfully concluded, it is vital that all EU member states provide financial support to Ukraine.”

Berlin is also aiming to shift decision-making on funding for Ukraine from unanimity to qualified majority voting, in an effort to prevent a single government from blocking EU decisions.

The letter reflects mounting frustration among the EU’s northern member states, Ukraine’s most generous backers, over lower contributions from other EU countries in Central and Southern Europe.

The task of brokering an agreement on the budget falls to Costa, the former Portuguese prime minister.

Costa wants a deal by the end of the year, ahead of elections in France, Poland, and Italy in 2027 that could complicate the process.

A spokesperson for Costa confirmed receipt of the letter without elaborating on details. “President Costa will dedicate time to the Ukraine issue at the informal European Council meeting in Dublin this week,” the spokesperson said, adding that funding for Ukraine would be addressed at a dedicated summit on the EU budget scheduled for 26-27 November.

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EU expects next Israeli government to adopt less aggressive posture

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The EU expects the next Israeli government to mend its “difficult relationship” with Brussels and adopt a more constructive approach toward Gaza and illegal settlements.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the anti-Netanyahu bloc, on Sunday with forming a government.

Eisenkot stated that the country faces a “catastrophic diplomatic crisis” as traditional allies begin to reassess their relations with Israel.

Speaking to Rapporteur, several European diplomats stationed in Tel Aviv said they expect ties to get back on track.

“Whatever government comes in, we can try to revitalize relations because Israel is clearly a very important partner,” one European diplomat said, adding that Brussels expects the next administration to be “less aggressive”.

The diplomat noted that relations with Europe are currently “not very good”.

Israel cut off communication with Kaja Kallas, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, after Rapporteur revealed in June that she had compared Israel to apartheid-era South Africa during a visit to Mexico.

The diplomat stated that this decision, taken ahead of elections, was political in nature. A second European diplomat based in Brussels explained that the announcement came only a few days before an official visit by Dubravka Šuica, the European commissioner for the Mediterranean.

“This could have been interpreted as a tactic to divide Europe, but Israel had asked Kallas to deny the report; she did not do so,” the second diplomat said.

Brussels has repeatedly voiced its frustration with Israel over the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the expansion of West Bank settlements.

However, EU governments blocked almost all sanctions proposed by the European Commission.

A third diplomat said opposition parties would “almost certainly take the issue more seriously” when it comes to tackling violence by West Bank settlers:

“We see Palestinians being expelled from their homes and new illegal settlements being built in the West Bank. There is a reluctance on the part of the current government to address this issue, which causes problems in our relations.”

The new government is expected to ease pressure on Palestinians and halt construction of the E1 settlement project, a controversial plan to build settler housing in the West Bank east of Jerusalem.

“They will probably try to deal with the problem of extremist settlers in the West Bank,” the diplomat added.

On Gaza, the diplomat described the situation as “a complete nightmare”, with two million Palestinians crowded into an area that accounts for roughly 35% of the territory.

“There are not enough tents for the winter, and not enough vaccines are reaching the area despite an increase in diseases,” the diplomat said.

The European official argued that Donald Trump’s peace plan met all the conditions for Europe. Although the EU had much to offer, neither the US nor Israel appeared interested in EU involvement in the process.

“We are currently training Palestinian police in the West Bank, and if permitted, we could do the same in Gaza,” the diplomat said.

The diplomat disclosed that Israel had agreed with Šuica that Europe would finance two projects aimed at improving sewage and water infrastructure in Gaza, continuing:

“However, none of these projects has started yet because there is a serious problem with dual-use goods. Getting materials into Gaza is very difficult because the Israelis say they could be misused if they fall into the wrong hands of Hamas.”

Israel insists that Hamas must be disarmed before subsequent phases of Trump’s plan can proceed.

With disarmament unlikely to happen in the near term, the EU argues that certain measures can be carried out in parallel.

“We can begin rebuilding sanitation systems in Gaza. We can start building desalination plants. We can begin providing energy and water to Gaza,” one diplomat said.

While Brussels hopes for progress on Gaza and the West Bank, it maintains that expectations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state need to be “managed”.

The EU continues to advocate a two-state solution, yet most leading Jewish parties oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

The diplomat noted that the next Israeli government will likely have “a very slim majority and not much room for manoeuvre”.

There is also a “major misunderstanding” between the EU and Israel that must be addressed. According to the diplomat, Europeans fail to recognize the “psychological impact” of 7 October on Israelis.

“This event changed the country and made the two-state solution even more distant than before,” the diplomat said.

In return, some Israeli politicians believe Europe has betrayed Israel despite what they view as a fight against “Islamist terrorism”.

“Their argument is that European politicians are somewhat afraid of the Muslim population in Europe,” the European diplomat said.

Europe strongly opposes Iran and the possibility of Tehran acquiring nuclear weapons, imposing sanctions in response.

However, the diplomat argued that the EU would not participate in a war because it lacks a common army:

“We are a diplomatic and economic power, which is why we resort to sanctions and diplomacy. The expectation that we would take part in a military operation is unrealistic.”

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Germany threatens EU budget veto over long-term Ukraine aid

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Germany has threatened to veto the European Union’s joint budget for the 2028-2034 period, which is currently under negotiation, unless every member state commits to providing financial support to Ukraine in 2027 and subsequent years, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned.

According to a report by the Financial Times (FT), Chancellor Merz set out Berlin’s condition for the budget talks in a letter addressed to European Council President António Costa.

In his letter, Merz wrote: “A collective commitment that every single one of us, without exception, will make a fair contribution to closing Ukraine’s budget deficit is an indispensable prerequisite for resolving this budget issue and, in particular, for addressing subsequent matters that carry financial implications.”

The German Chancellor stressed that a formula backed by all member states must be established to provide Ukraine with a reliable, multi-year financial perspective starting from 2028.

Merz also insisted that any agreed solution must cover the interest payments on debts incurred to finance the assistance provided to Kyiv.

Conversely, several countries within the bloc have cut financial aid to Ukraine, and the number of capitals adopting this stance is projected to rise next year.

In December 2025, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic approved the EU’s 90 billion euro loan package for Kyiv only on the condition that they would not contribute to its costs themselves.

Alongside these three countries, Bulgaria has also stated that it does not plan to participate in subsequent financial assistance packages for Ukraine.

In France, far-right leader Marine Le Pen, who could potentially win the presidential election scheduled for spring 2027, recently told the FT that Paris has run out of funds.

Le Pen assessed: “The honest approach is to tell Mr Zelensky clearly, and even warn him: ‘Look, we cannot do more. We have already allocated the 90 billion euro EU loan, in which France’s share amounts to 18 billion euros. 18 billion euros is genuinely a huge amount of money.'”

The EU’s 90 billion euro loan, covering the 2026-2027 period, aims to meet two-thirds of Ukraine’s financing requirements.

Brussels expects the remaining 45 billion euros to be covered by other partners, including Canada, the UK, Norway, Japan, South Korea, and Australia.

Germany remains the largest net contributor to the EU budget.

In contrast, the four Eastern European countries seeking to avoid financing Ukraine rank among the largest net beneficiaries of the bloc’s budget.

Leveraging this balance, Chancellor Merz aims to use his influence in the EU budget negotiations to secure uninterrupted support for Kyiv in 2027 and the years beyond.

According to the FT, Berlin is also demanding that future aid packages be decided by qualified majority voting rather than unanimity, which is required under the current system.

A German government spokesperson told the newspaper:

“The issue of Ukraine’s financial needs must be resolved within the framework of the next EU budget. Financial support for Ukraine from all EU members is decisive for the successful conclusion of the budget talks.”

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