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Russia’s military presence in Syria faces uncertain future

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After the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad’s government, the new Syrian government opposes Russia’s military presence in Syria, and Moscow’s attempts to persuade it have failed. For the first time since Bashar al-Assad’s departure, a Russian delegation traveled to Damascus for talks. However, Moscow faces a strong opponent: Türkiye, which does not want the bases to remain.

A source familiar with the situation told Bloomberg that Russia has been unable to reach an agreement on maintaining the bases. Negotiations with the new Syrian government have reached an impasse, the source said. Russian activities at the Khmeimim airbase have been restricted, while two military ships had to wait weeks for permission to dock in Tartus to transport military equipment.

Türkiye, which supports the opposition, opposes Russia’s continued military presence in Syria. Two senior Turkish officials told Bloomberg that it is highly doubtful the new administration would allow Russia to remain in the bases after Russian warplanes attacked opposition forces during the civil war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin had supported Assad militarily and helped him avoid defeat in the post-Arab Spring war. This was achieved through intensive bombing of opposition-held Syrian cities by the Russian military—a tactic now being used in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, a Russian delegation arrived in Damascus, including Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov and the Russian President’s Special Envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, TASS reported. It was the first visit by Russian officials to Damascus since Assad stepped down as Syrian president in December, the state news agency said.

The two Russian transport ships, Sparta and Sparta II, were able to enter the harbor in recent days after weeks of waiting near the Tartus base. This followed Tartus Customs Director Riyad Judi’s announcement that the new Syrian administration had canceled the agreement signed in 2019 with Stroytransgaz to invest in the port (signed for 49 years; the base was leased for the same period).

Satellite imagery shows that Sparta II has left the port, and a significant portion of the containers and military equipment it brought has also disappeared.

“After the cancellation of the 49-year lease, it has become very clear that Russia has no hope of maintaining its military presence in Tartus, and therefore there seems to be no point in continuing to stay there and delay the evacuation,” maritime analyst Frederik van Lokeren told the BBC.

DIPLOMACY

First official Russia-US talks since Ukraine war begin in Riyadh

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Representatives from Russia and the United States (US) have commenced their first official high-level talks since the onset of the Ukrainian war in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

The meeting is being held at the Diriyah Palace, a residence of the Saudi royal family. The Russian delegation includes Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Deputy President Yuri Ushakov, and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) President Kirill Dmitriev. Representing the US are Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and White House Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff.

Discussions are anticipated to cover preparations for potential negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the arrangement of a direct meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

Before the talks began, RDIF President Dmitriev indicated that Russia had presented the US with several proposals in the trade and economic sectors, anticipating progress within two to three months.

“The American business community has lost over $300 billion by withdrawing from the Russian market. Thus, identifying mutual economic avenues and constructive solutions is crucial for the United States and other nations, which are recognizing the Russian market’s appeal and the necessity of maintaining a presence there,” Dmitriev stated.

Dmitriev further mentioned that Russia and the US should initiate joint projects, particularly in the Arctic.

A Washington Post source revealed that the Kremlin’s primary objective in the negotiations is the removal of sanctions against Russia, including those impacting senior officials and prominent Russian billionaires.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky previously stated that Kyiv would not acknowledge the outcomes of the Russia-US talks in Riyadh.

“Ukraine views any discussions about Ukraine without Ukraine’s participation as unproductive. We cannot accept any outcomes or agreements made about us without our involvement,” Zelensky asserted.

NBC News television sources reported that the US plans to conduct a separate meeting with Ukrainian officials prior to direct negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv.

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NATO criticizes Ukrainian army’s ‘wasteful’ use of Western weapons

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The Sunday Telegraph, citing a source, reported that NATO is dissatisfied with the Ukrainian army’s use of Western-supplied weapons alongside Soviet ones.

This is resulting in the wasteful use of weapons provided by allies due to their different approaches to using weapons.

According to the newspaper, NATO advocates the use of high-precision weapons from different sources, while the Soviet approach calls for intensive use of cheap firepower.

An official involved in the training of Ukrainian soldiers told the newspaper that the Ukrainians were using British-supplied NLAW anti-tank missiles (around 5,000) as hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers (RPGs).

It was reported that the soldiers were firing salvos of five or six rockets, but that each rocket cost around £20,000 (2.2 million rubles at the time).

It was emphasized that using RPGs was not that costly. The launch of the rockets was reportedly recorded on video, and Ukraine provided the footage for reporting purposes.

Other sources told the newspaper that Ukrainian troops often abandon their equipment during withdrawals and that NATO’s principle is to “leave nothing behind” due to the cost of the weapons.

In particular, it was noted that the Ukrainian army did not take the launchers of the Javelin anti-tank missiles, which cost $100,000, from the abandoned positions.

“The Russian army probably has more Javelins than the British army,” one of the newspaper’s sources said. The Russian side has been reporting the seizure of such anti-tank missile systems since 2022.

The Telegraph listed the reasons for Kiev’s departure from Western tactics as the lack of time to train Ukrainians and disagreements with instructors who were unfamiliar with real combat conditions.

It was stated that this situation caused Ukraine to demand cheaper firepower and that the West was forced to turn to former Warsaw Pact countries for Soviet weapons.

“Foreign training is not only ineffective, but also dangerous, unless it is adapted to Ukrainian conditions and integrated into existing unit practices,” said Sergey Filimonov, commander of Ukraine’s 108th battalion.

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Possible US-Russia talks on Ukraine to be held in Riyadh

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Russian and American delegations may meet in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, on February 18 to discuss the Ukraine issue.

Sources informed Kommersant that talks between the US and Russian official delegations on Ukraine could take place in Riyadh.

According to Axios, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will attend the talks, while the US delegation will be headed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The US delegation is also expected to include the President’s National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

Bloomberg had previously reported that Russia could be represented at the talks by Vice President Yuri Ushakov, Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin, and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Chairman Kirill Dmitriev.

US President Donald Trump announced last week that talks between the US and Russia would begin in Saudi Arabia.

Trump stated that these talks would take place before his personal meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he held a one-and-a-half-hour meeting on February 12 and agreed to work to resolve the military conflict in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky is also expected to visit Saudi Arabia in the coming days.

“I will not only meet with Russians,” Zelensky said. “As I said, we see the order of the talks as follows: first the United States, then Europe, and then the Russians.”

US Secretary of State Rubio stated that Ukrainian and European leaders will take part in the decisive stage of the peace talks, while the bilateral meeting between representatives of the United States and Russia is aimed at starting the negotiation process.

According to Bloomberg, Trump expects a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine by Easter, which falls on April 20 this year.

Senior Ukrainian and Western officials told the Financial Times that Trump is trying to reach an agreement with Putin by that date.

Another possible date for a deal is May 9, when Russia will celebrate the 80th anniversary of the end of the Great Patriotic War.

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