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Security summit in Iraq

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Öncü Keçeli, Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, evaluated the important points regarding the visits that reflect the intense diplomatic activities carried out by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan recently.

Spokesperson Keçeli stated that Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held more than 70 bilateral meetings in total, including the Munich Security Conference held on 16-18 February, his visits to Venezuela and Mexico, the Antalya Diplomatic Forum held between 29 February and 3 March, and his subsequent visit to the US. Thus, he announced that, Fidan met with one-third of the member countries of the United Nations in the last month.

The highlights of Türkiye’s recent diplomatic activities are as follows:

The topic of terrorism discussed with the US

Clear messages were given to the United States about PKK/YPG and FETO. It was stated that it is never acceptable for an allied country to cooperate with terrorist organizations targeting the security of our country. And it was stated that the biggest obstacle to further deepening of Türkiye-US strategic relations is the US support for YPG. During their meetings with the US, the issue of fighting against DAESH was also discussed and it was agreed to hold regular consultations at the technical level on the fight against terrorism.

Call for peace negotiations for the Ukraine-Russia war

Fidan also discussed The Ukraine-Russia war during his meeting with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Türkiye argues that peace negotiations should be resumed when favorable conditions are created for both sides, an opinion repeated in Washington. Under this heading, the issue of ensuring navigation safety in the Black Sea was also discussed.

Humanitarian aid formulas for Gaza

Options for delivering aid to Gaza by sea or by air are constantly elaborated; “However”, said Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Keçeli, “It is not an alternative to aid delivered by land, neither in terms of quality nor quantity. Actually, this is not our subjective evaluation, the United Nations and non-governmental organizations specialized in this field also make the same observation.” Fidan gave this message to the Americans in Washington, asking the US to use all its influence on Israel to ensure a ceasefire as soon as possible and to ensure that humanitarian aid enters Gaza in the most effective, fastest and most sustainable way.

Security summit in Iraq

The second Security Summit, which is followed by the one held with Iraq in Ankara in December, will be held in Baghdad on Thursday, March 14, with the participation of top Turkish diplomat Hakan Fidan, Minister of National Defense Yaşar Güler, Head of Turkish National Intelligence İbrahim Kalın and their Iraqi counterparts. Security and military cooperation issues will be the priority agenda items during the talks. Developing a common understanding in the fight against terrorism and concrete steps that can be taken in this direction will be on the table. In the joint statement published at the previous security summit, the parties emphasized that the PKK was a common threat to both countries. Keçeli stated that “they see the definition of the PKK as a common security threat by the Iraqi authorities as a sign that the determination to fight the PKK on the Iraqi side has begun to develop.”

Oil pipeline issue is on the agenda

The Iraq-Türkiye oil pipeline has been closed for almost a year now. Türkiye stated in October that shipments could be started through this pipeline and that there was no problem for Türkiye. However, Spokesperson Keçeli says that it is considered that the Iraqi side is not ready to start the shipment yet. 

At today’s security summit in Baghdad, details of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s upcoming visit to Iraq will also be discussed.

Discussions will be held on developing natural gas resources in Iraq and shipping them to international markets. It will also be elaborated how joint projects can be developed in the field of renewable energy in Iraq. 

DIPLOMACY

Argentina and the IMF: Negotiations begin for a new $44bn agreement

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Argentina is pursuing a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to replace its current $44 billion arrangement. The effort signals a significant shift in the country’s financial strategy under President Javier Milei’s administration.

IMF Chief Spokesperson Julie Kozack confirmed on Thursday that the Milei government is prioritizing the establishment of a new programme over completing the final reviews of the existing deal inherited from the previous administration. According to a Bloomberg report, Kozack stated, “The authorities have formally expressed their desire to move to a new programme, and negotiations are now underway.”

The discussions intensified following a visit earlier this month by officials from Economy Minister Luis Caputo’s office and the central bank to Washington, where they engaged with IMF representatives.

The central question in the negotiations revolves around whether the IMF will extend additional financing beyond the $44 billion already allocated to Argentina. Milei had previously suggested an additional $15 billion, although he has not reiterated this figure recently. However, Caputo indicated this week that new funding could be included as part of the prospective programme.

If the parties reach an agreement, it would mark Argentina’s 23rd programme with the IMF since 1958 and its third since 2018. Historically, the IMF’s interventions in Argentina have faced criticism, as many past agreements failed to stabilize the economy. Successive governments often violated programme objectives, raising doubts about the effectiveness of IMF support in the country.

President Milei and his chief negotiator, Caputo, have a history of strained relations with the IMF. Earlier this year, Milei publicly criticized Rodrigo Valdes, one of the IMF’s senior officials, leading to Valdes stepping back from negotiations. Similarly, Caputo clashed with the IMF during his tenure as finance minister in 2018, particularly over exchange rate policies, which eventually prompted his resignation after a short stint as central bank governor.

Despite these tensions, the IMF has commended the Milei administration for implementing measures to cut spending, reduce inflation, and narrow gaps between the country’s various exchange rates.

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Trump threatens tariffs on the EU over energy purchases

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has issued a warning to the European Union (EU), stating that the bloc may face tariffs if it does not increase its purchases of U.S. oil and gas on a “large scale.”

“I told the European Union that they must close the enormous gap with the United States by buying our oil and gas on a large scale. Otherwise, TARIFFS!!! in every way!!!” Trump declared in a post on the Truth Social platform on Friday.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested that the EU could explore the possibility of importing more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S. “We still buy a lot of LNG from Russia, and why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers our energy prices?” von der Leyen remarked to reporters in November.

An EU official, speaking to the Financial Times (FT), noted the peculiarity of Trump’s threat, given von der Leyen’s earlier openness to the idea of increasing LNG imports from the U.S.

Currently, the United States is Europe’s largest supplier of LNG, though Russia remains the EU’s second-largest source. The possibility of replacing Russian LNG with U.S. imports aligns with the EU’s efforts to diversify its energy sources.

Trump has also floated the possibility of a general tariff of up to 20% on all non-Chinese imports, which could have significant implications for EU-U.S. trade relations.

In November, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde urged European leaders to engage with the U.S. on trade matters, including tariffs, and to consider purchasing more U.S.-manufactured goods. This call for cooperation echoes measures taken during Trump’s first term, when then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker pledged to buy more U.S. gas to avert the risk of a trade war.

Global oil prices have shown sensitivity to these developments. On Friday, international oil benchmark Brent crude prices dropped 0.4% to $72.61 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also fell 0.4%, trading at $69.14 per barrel.

The U.S., currently the world’s largest producer of crude oil and exporter of LNG, has been strengthening its energy trade partnerships. Buyers, including the EU and Vietnam, are reportedly considering increased fuel purchases from the U.S., partly to mitigate the risk of potential tariffs.

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London pushes for continued U.S. support to Ukraine amid leadership transition

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged Donald Trump on Wednesday to ensure that Western allies “stand together” in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression.

During a phone call with the U.S. president-elect, their second conversation since Trump’s electoral victory in November, Starmer emphasized the importance of unified support for Ukraine, stating that “allies must stand with Ukraine… and ensure that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position.”

A spokesperson for the British Prime Minister’s Office described the discussion as highlighting a “shared desire to strengthen the close and historic relationship between the United Kingdom and the United States.”

Starmer began the call by congratulating Trump on his recent team appointments. Trump responded by “warmly recounting” his recent meeting with Prince William, Prince of Wales, in Paris earlier this month, according to the Prime Minister’s Office.

As Trump prepares to take office next month, he has expressed intentions to seek a deal to end the war in Ukraine, though he has also publicly criticized certain Western policies, including the approval of missile supplies to Ukraine for use on Russian soil.

In an interview with The Sun on Tuesday, Starmer expressed hope to revive trade talks with the incoming U.S. administration. These negotiations had stalled two years ago under President Joe Biden. The leaders also expressed mutual anticipation of meeting in person “at the first opportunity.” According to the i newspaper, Starmer may visit the U.S. in early February.

Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney, conducted private meetings with senior members of Trump’s team earlier this month. McSweeney traveled to Florida to meet Susie Wiles, Trump’s chief of staff-designate, who played a pivotal role in managing his re-election campaign. He also held discussions in Washington with Congressman Mike Waltz, Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser.

A senior source in the Prime Minister’s Office described the interactions as “very warm,” adding that “President Trump has a warm approach to the UK. As the year draws to a close, the Starmer team is confident that the UK is well-placed for a strong bilateral relationship with the new president.”

Starmer’s delegation to the U.S., which began on December 2, included Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and now Starmer’s national security adviser. Together with McSweeney, Powell engaged in policy discussions on Ukraine, China, and the Middle East, identifying areas of alignment and divergence between the two leaders.

According to The Telegraph, those close to Starmer believe Trump is currently in “listening mode” on Ukraine, carefully evaluating strategies to fulfill his campaign promise of resolving the conflict “on day one” of his presidency.

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