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Shangri-La Forum highlights and Zelensky’s surprise visit

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Senior defence officials and government leaders from around the world presented their case for regional peace and stability at the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore over the weekend.

The US and China proposed different mechanisms for partnership and cooperation in the region, with delegates at times disagreeing on various issues.

The summit also took place against a tense international backdrop, ranging from disputes in the South China Sea to Israeli aggression in Gaza and the ongoing war in Ukraine. During the three-day event, senior officials held numerous bilateral and several closed-door meetings.

US-China tensions

The world’s two largest economies laid out different paths for regional cooperation at the Shangri-La Dialogue. On Saturday, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin outlined America’s vision of a broad network of partnerships with Indo-Pacific countries. This vision is also seen as a US attempt to ‘contain and contain’ China through its allies in the region.

Austin advocated a ‘new convergence’ of stronger and more resilient ties in the region, not tied to a single alliance or coalition, but made up of ‘overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions’. Austin stressed that the US commitment to the Indo-Pacific is ‘all-encompassing’.

His Chinese counterpart, Defence Minister Dong Jun, spoke of his country’s ‘five principles of peaceful coexistence’: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

Referring to Washington’s push for an anti-China alliance in the region, Dong Jun said: ‘Our people oppose any attempt to turn our countries into vassal states or drag us into bloc conflicts. Our people despise those who seek to strengthen themselves by taking orders from hegemonic powers.

The Taiwan debate was also on the agenda. Taiwan’s new pro-independence leader, Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party, made an anti-China and pro-independence speech at his swearing-in ceremony last week, sparking tensions. Beijing responded by calling the speech ‘provocative and separatist’ and then launched military exercises around the island to ‘blockade’ Taiwan.

On Friday, US Defence Secretary Austin described the Chinese People’s Liberation Army drill as ‘provocative’ and expressed ‘concern’.

Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun reiterated the ‘one China’ principle during a question-and-answer session at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday.

Dong stressed that China would not hesitate to take ‘decisive action’ to prevent any move towards independence for the island, in a strong response to Taiwan separatism. He said any attempt to separate the island from China would lead to ‘self-destruction’. Experts pointed out that this was the first time the term had been used.

Surprise visit by Zelenskiy

In a surprise move, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky also travelled to Singapore to support the ‘peace summit’ scheduled for 15-16 June in Switzerland. The Ukrainian leader said 106 countries and 75 heads of state had confirmed their attendance.

We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelensky told reporters on Sunday. Ukraine is trying to persuade more developing countries from the so-called global south to attend, including China, which has said it will not attend without a representative from Russia. But the Ukrainian leader on Sunday accused Beijing of working with Moscow to prevent countries from attending the upcoming forum. Zelensky said Russia was using China’s regional influence and diplomats to block the summit. It is unfortunate that a big, independent and powerful country like China is a tool in Putin’s hands,” he said.

Philippines-China tensions continue

Tensions between the Philippines and China over the South China Sea, another area of conflict, continued at the meeting.

In the forum’s opening speech, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. responded to China’s “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions” without naming any country. Marcos argued that if tensions in the South China Sea resulted in the death of a Philippine citizen, it would be ‘an act close to war’. He stressed that such an event could trigger the Mutual Defence Treaty signed with the US in 1951. In previous statements, Marcos had said that the treaty would be activated if a Filipino soldier died as a result of a foreign attack.

It was noted that the US ‘welcomed’ Marcos’ speech.

In response, the Chinese Defence Minister said in his speech: ‘We will not allow hegemonism and power politics to harm the interests of Asia-Pacific countries. We will not allow anyone to bring hot or cold geopolitical conflicts or wars to our region. We will not allow any country or power to create conflict and chaos in our region.

Gaza

In their speeches, Indonesia and Malaysia expressed concern over Israel’s attacks on Gaza.

In a special address on Saturday, Indonesian Defence Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto said the new proposal for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was an ‘important step in the right direction’ towards ending the eight-month war. Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, has no formal relations with Israel.

As part of the new proposal, Prabowo pledged Indonesia’s willingness to contribute ‘significant’ peacekeepers to maintain and monitor a possible ceasefire if needed and requested by the United Nations. The new leader said the Southeast Asian country was also ready to evacuate and treat around 1,000 patients from Gaza.

During the closing session on Sunday, Malaysian Defence Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin applauded Prabowo’s remarks and reiterated that Kuala Lumpur ‘absolutely welcomes and supports’ any proposal that would lead to an immediate and lasting ceasefire.

The Malaysian defence chief concluded his speech by suggesting that the annual Singapore Defence Forum invite a representative from Palestine to future events.

ASIA

Khalil Haqqani’s assassination will damage Pakistan influence on Taliban

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Targeting the Afghanistan minister for refugees and one of key members of the Haqqani network has generated a stock of questions. Since the return of Taliban into power Khalil Haqqani become third most important figure targeted by suicide bomber inside his most guarded ministerial complex at Kabul. In the wake of prolonged links, Pakistan is likely to face decline in its influence in war devastated Afghanistan.

Not only it claimed but even Taliban high command has blamed the Islamic States (IS) also called Daeesh terrorist for carrying out suicide attack against Khalil Haqqani. However, common men and analysts as well are in hunt of answers to queries pertained to honouring of IS militants on the soil of Afghanistan. It is no more secret that almost all hardline Islamists organs and individuals including al-Qaeda, Daeesh and others are benefitting no other than US lead allies. Rebellion against Syrian president Bashar Asad after Libyan leader Col Gaddafi has confirmed brain behind such so called Islamist groups. Whatever might be by Persian (Islamic Republic of Iran) establishment designs but its patronised Hammas and Hezbollah doing has made more strengthen US puppet Israel in the Middle East. 

Through different jihadic period, Pakistan has established unbeatable influence across Afghanistan.

Reaction of Kandaharis within Emirate Islami over murdering of Khalil Haqqani in a suicide attack is not encouraging. Not even a single top leader of Emirate Islamic turned up to the funeral of Khalil Haqqani which confirms rifts within Taliban ranks. Only foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Maulvi Abdul Kabir both from South-Eastern zone were amongst those who attended funeral or last rites of Khalil Haqqani who had accredited himself as pioneer of suicide bombers in the region. 

Rifts within Taliban ranks are not new but lingering on since mid of August 2021 last. At that time, Taliban high command had made up its mind for monopolising the government set up but opposed by none other than Khalil Haqqani. Even former Pakistan ISI chief Lt Gen (Retd) Faiz Hameed had also extended help to Khalil in this respect. Sirajuddin Haqqani who is leading the family and notorious Haqqani Network and less experienced and he was always guided by uncle Khalil Haqqani to right directions. Now when Khalil Haqqani is no more therefore Sirajuddin Haqqani would definitely face hardships.

Through different jihadic, militant and other individuals, Pakistan has established unbeatable influence across Afghanistan. Earlier, this influence has sustained first ever set back when the US established direct links with the Emirate Islami through Qatar. However, Pakistan succeeded in recovering such losses to some extent by exploiting geo-politico locations. But now the sudden death of Khalil Haqqani is likely to end Pakistan influence in Afghanistan as Khalil after his elder brother Jalaluddin Haqqani was considered most loyal and obedient to Rawalpindi-Islamabad.

All those played pivotal roles in the “Great Game” either lost their lives or end up in exile.

In the wake of recent developments in Syria, the US has confirmed its main role in Islamic world not only for safeguarding its own geo-strategic economic interests but also for making Israel safe and sound. On such ground, US lead allies are interested in further confining Russia to its own international border. Like hard line Islamist groups and individuals of Syria, US spy agencies eyeing and hopeful of a due role from al-Qaeda and IS lead Asian Islamic groups, camping across Afghanistan and its border regions along with Pakistan.

No one can deny the fact that Haqqanis are witnesses to prolonged war on the soil of Afghanistan. Almost all the eyewitnesses of this war have been eliminated. Khalil’s brutal killing is also considered in sequence or part of the move in progress against eyewitnesses of war on the soil of Afghanistan, declared a Great Game by former President Dr Najibullah little before signing of the Geneva Accord in 1988. All those who played pivotal roles in this great game have either lost their lives or are now unable to live inside the country with honour and peace.

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South Korea’s constitutional court reviews President Yoon’s impeachment case

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South Korea’s Constitutional Court convened on Monday to begin its review of the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The case follows the National Assembly’s impeachment motion, passed late Saturday with 204 votes—well above the two-thirds majority threshold required in the 300-member legislature.

Six judges from the court decided to hold the first hearing on December 27, following their initial meeting after the impeachment vote. Representatives from the National Assembly and President Yoon will participate in the hearing to determine procedural steps for resolving the case. Additionally, the court announced the formation of a task force to facilitate the review.

“We will handle this swiftly and fairly,” said Judge Kim Hyung-du, addressing reporters before the meeting. He emphasized the importance of organizing preparatory procedures effectively. Judge Kim also expressed confidence that the court would achieve its full composition of nine members by the end of December, as motions to elect three judges were submitted last week, with confirmation hearings planned for later this week.

For the impeachment to be upheld, six of the nine judges must vote in favor.

The court’s review comes amid escalating legal challenges for President Yoon. On Sunday, Yoon declined a summons from prosecutors investigating his alleged involvement in a case of martial law declaration earlier this month. Prosecutors reissued the summons on Monday, though Yoon’s appearance remains uncertain, according to Yonhap News Agency.

Separately, police announced plans to summon Yoon on Wednesday in connection with allegations of rioting and abuse of office. The president has yet to respond to these summonses.

The impeachment vote has triggered a crisis within the People Power Party (PPP). On Monday, PPP leader Han Dong-hoon resigned after facing backlash for supporting the impeachment measure and persuading enough party members to vote in favor.

“I am resigning as leader of the People Power Party because I can no longer fulfill my duties following the resignations of board members,” Han stated during a press conference. Five of the nine board members resigned, citing dissatisfaction with Han’s handling of the impeachment.

Despite a consensus within the PPP to oppose impeachment, a secret ballot revealed that 12 PPP lawmakers joined all 192 opposition and independent MPs in supporting the motion.

The main opposition Democratic Party continues to press its advantage amid the political turmoil. Democratic leader Lee Jae-myung called on acting president and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo to establish a bipartisan body to address national issues while the Constitutional Court deliberates Yoon’s fate.

“It is time for the National Assembly to actively manage the affairs of the Republic of Korea,” Lee said at a press conference on Sunday. “The People’s Power Party is no longer the ruling party. The ruling party, as it stands, no longer exists,” he added.

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Taliban, Turkmenistan FMs visit construction site of multibillion-dollar gas pipeline project

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The Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi with his Turkmenistan counterpart Rashid Murdov, had visited the construction site of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline project near the common border between the two countries. During the visit, they reviewed the operational affairs of the TAPI pipeline, where both the officials discussed laying the railway track, optical fiber transfer and visa and transportation facilities.

Spokesman for the Afghan Foreign Ministry Hafiz Zia Ahmad said that the discussions “extended beyond the TAPI pipeline project to include the expansion of the railway, the construction of railway warehouses in Torghundi, the deployment of fiber optic networks, and the facilitation of visa issuance and transportation services.”

The Turkmen Foreign Minister provided a comprehensive briefing on the progress of the TAPI pipeline, the acceleration of construction activities, and the next steps in the Project, Zia said in a statement.

The $7 billion TAPI project will bring natural gas to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India

The $7 billion Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline, also known as Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, is a natural gas pipeline being developed by the Galkynysh – TAPI Pipeline Company Limited with the participation of the Asian Development Bank. The pipeline will transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan into Pakistan and then to India. The official work on the project was opened on 13 December 2015 in Turkmenistan and the practical work in Afghanistan began on 11 September 2024.

The pipeline will have a capacity to carry 33 billion cubic meters of gas from Turkmenistan to Pakistan and India through Afghanistan’s provinces of Herat, Farah, Helmand and Nimroz.

It is worth mentioning that the much-delayed project was first signed in 2010 but the work has been put on hold due to technical and financial complications. The work was also stalled due disagreement between the archrivals Pakistan and India. However, the four countries Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India agreed to work on the TAPI pipeline project

However, the work on the Afghan side remained stuck due to war and the Taliban’s war against the foreign forces and the Afghan regime in that time backed by the US. However, the Taliban resumed work on the TAPI following their victory and the escape of the then Afghan President Ashraf Ghani following the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan after 20 years of presence.

Taliban spokesman Zia Ahmad, said that Muttaqi and Murdov reaffirmed their commitment to expediting the TAPI project, expanding railway infrastructure, improving energy and transport services, and enhancing broader economic cooperation. He furthered that the technical teams will continue their engagements in Kabul and Ashgabat to achieve these objectives.

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