The World Bank has raised its near-term economic forecasts for China, while reiterating its call for President Xi Jinping to implement profound reforms to address lagging confidence and structural issues in the world’s second-largest economy.

The multilateral lender announced on Thursday that it had increased China’s GDP growth forecast for next year by 0.4 percentage points to 4.5%, reflecting a series of policy easing measures introduced by Beijing over the past three months and the strength of the country’s exports.

For the current year, the World Bank adjusted its full-year forecast upwards by 0.1 percentage points to 4.9%, slightly behind Beijing’s growth target of approximately 5% for 2024. The Chinese economy grew by 4.8% during the first nine months of this year.

Recent pledges from Xi’s economic planners to enhance social welfare and consumption support, alongside reforms in fiscal and tax systems, were also highlighted by the report. However, the bank noted that more detailed plans are required to build confidence among households and businesses.

“Traditional stimulus measures will not be enough to revitalize growth,” the World Bank stated, emphasizing the need for deeper reforms in education, health, social welfare protections, pensions, and the household registration system.

China’s economic growth has slowed significantly this year due to weak domestic demand, deep deflationary pressures, and a prolonged slump in the property market, which has eroded household wealth.

While Xi has shifted economic priorities towards high-tech manufacturing and industrial investment, concerns are growing over the risks to exports—particularly given the potential for new tariffs under Donald Trump’s administration, as he returns to the U.S. presidency next month.

The World Bank also released a new analysis of economic mobility in China, covering the period from 2010 to 2021. By its definition, over half a billion people are at risk of falling out of the middle class just one generation after escaping poverty.

The report commended Beijing for its “dramatic achievement” of lifting 800 million people out of poverty over the past 40 years, with the share of low-income earners in the population dropping sharply from 62.3% to 17%. However, it also pointed out that 38.2% of China’s 1.4 billion population is in the “vulnerable middle class”—above the defined low-income threshold but not immune to the risk of falling below it. According to 2017 purchasing power parity calculations, the low-income threshold was set at $6.85 per day.

“No other region of the world has experienced a faster increase in the share of the secure middle-class population than China,” the World Bank observed. “Yet, the vast majority of the population is not yet economically secure,” it added.

Bert Hofman, former World Bank China director and now with the National University of Singapore, noted earlier this month that the lackluster post-COVID performance of the Chinese economy has exposed weaknesses that have accumulated since the last major financial system overhaul in 1994.

Nonetheless, Hofman acknowledged “promising signals” that reforms could be on the horizon. He cited statements by policymakers suggesting an emphasis on improved income distribution and social security in the latter half of 2024.

“Fiscal reforms are now clearly linked to the Chinese Communist Party’s core objective of ‘high-quality growth,’ and the leadership recognizes that reforms must result in a fiscal system that can deliver efficiency, equity, and stability,” Hofman wrote in his 2025 forecast for Asia Society.

Pakistan has carried out airstrikes targeting three positions in neighboring Afghanistan late on Tuesday night, and apparently the target was against Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) armed group in Paktika province – the Taliban defense official warned of retaliation.

However, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the country’s military media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) has remained silent over the airstrike so far.

But the Taliban spokesman said that the strikes occurred in the Barmal district, near Pakistan’s South Waziristan tribal district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, in which 46 people, mostly women and children, lost their lives. He also confirmed that the casualties included those refugees who recently came to Paktiak from Waziristan of Pakistan.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that Pakistan targeted four locations in Barmal district and said that six others were wounded in the attack.

Taliban called the airstrikes against international principles and clear aggression against Afghanistan.

Taliban defense ministry also coiffured the attacks and said that civilians had been targeted. Ministry spokesman Enayat Khowarazm said the Pakistani army bombed Barmal district, in which a number of children and other civilians were killed and injured.

“The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan considers this barbaric act to be against all international principles and a clear aggression, and strongly condemns it. The Pakistani side should know that such arbitrary measures are not a solution to any problem,” Khowarazam said.

Speaking to Harici, Khowarazam said that “Islamic Emirate will not leave this cowardly act unanswered. We consider the defense of our territory as our inalienable right.”

Afghan Defense Minister vowed to retaliated Pakistan’s airstrikes that killed 46 people and wounded six others.

This is the second such incident this year in Afghanistan that came just hours as Pakistan’s Special Envoy for Afghanistan Mohammad Sadiq is already in Kabul and met with top Taliban leadership.

Sadiq met with Interior and Foreign Ministries in Kabul, where both sides discussed issues related to the bilateral topics, including security and border issues. Is there any connection between Sadiq’s visit to Kabul and Pakistan’s airstrikes. What message Pakistan wants to deliver to the Taliban leadership at a time when its special envoy is already in Kabul meeting with Taliban leaders. And most importantly, what message will Sadiq leave when he departs Kabul back to Islamabad.

Pakistan apparently failed to handle the TTP issue through diplomatic channels and went to take military action.  

Pakistan has always used two tools against Afghanistan. On the one hand, they proceed with a diplomatic approach, but on the other hand, they have used intelligence to exert pressure. Pakistan’s recent action is a contradiction, but the reality is that the army makes this decision, not the diplomatic system.

Meanwhile, the Taliban’s diplomatic weakness has made the ground favorable for Pakistan’s military intervention and attacks. In order to defend such attacks, it is necessary to form a legitimate and popular system in Afghanistan.

Islamabad’s relations with the Taliban have gone through significant ups and downs in the past three years. During this period, the Pakistani army has repeatedly targeted what they believe to be the positions of the Pakistan’s Taliban TTP in Afghanistan.

The meetings of Pakistan’s special representative Sadiq with Taliban officials in Kabul were encouraging – but the attack of the Pakistani army in Paktika will have a very negative effect on his trip. Such measures are not the solution and both sides should end the tensions through dialogue.

Islamabad has repeatedly warned about the presence and use of TTP in Afghanistan against Pakistan’s security and has continuously emphasized that they have provided the Taliban with the necessary evidence that TTP is planning attacks from Afghanistan.

Now, however, it is believed that Pakistan is trying to impose diplomacy to force the Taliban to act against the TTP in Afghanistan, but the Taliban have always denied the presence and activities of the TTP inside Afghanistan.

Increasing attacks in Pakistan by TTP fighters since Taliban takeover

Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Taliban government for harboring TTP, and also Islamabad claims that they carried out enormous cross-border attacks targeting security forces.

Last week, TTP claimed responsibility for killing at least 16 Pakistani forces in South Waziristan. After the attack, the Pakistan army said that TTP conducts its operation from Afghan sanctuaries, and the claim comes when the Taliban deny providing refuge to the TTP fighters.

During his briefing at the UNSC meeting last week, Usman Iqbal Jadoon said that thousands of TTP fighters have sought shelter in Afghanistan.

“The TTP, with 6,000 fighters, is the largest listed terrorist organisation operating in Afghanistan. With safe havens close to our border, it poses a direct and daily threat to Pakistan’s security,” Jadoon said at the UN briefing.

North Waziristan, a region bordering Paktika, where Pakistan conducted airstrikes against TTP fighters, has historically been a stronghold for different militant groups.

A passenger plane travelling from Baku to Grozny in Kazakhstan crashed near the city of Aktau. According to Tengrinews, the crew signaled an emergency before the crash occurred.

The Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan confirmed that the Embraer E190 aircraft, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL), was carrying 62 passengers and 5 crew members. Among the passengers were 37 citizens of Azerbaijan, 16 citizens of Russia, 6 citizens of Kazakhstan, and 3 citizens of Kyrgyzstan.

Rescue teams from the Kazakhstan Ministry of Emergency Situations, along with 14 ambulances, were dispatched to the crash site. Reports indicate that 28 people have been rescued, including one child. The injured passengers were transferred to Mangistau Regional Hospital in Aktau, where Kazakhstan Health Minister Akmaral Alnazarova stated that the condition of six individuals was critical.

Preliminary investigations suggest the crash may have been caused by a collision with a flock of birds. Azerbaijan Airlines reported that the aircraft crashed near Aktau Airport while attempting to land on a spare runway.

According to officials from Grozny Airport, the aircraft was initially diverted to Makhachkala due to dense fog in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, and later rerouted to Aktau. The crew signaled an emergency at 08:35, citing a malfunction in the aircraft control system. Emergency landing permission was requested at 08:49, and the crew attempted a manual landing in direct mode. However, the aircraft struck the ground at 09:28.

Authorities, including Rosaviatsiya (Russian Civil Aviation Authority) and aviation officials from Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, are investigating the incident. A government commission was established on the instructions of Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to determine the cause of the crash.

In response to the tragedy, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev cancelled his participation in the informal CIS Summit in Russia and decided to return to Baku.